please stand by for john thomas wednesday, january 4, 2012 trade alert service
DESCRIPTION
Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service. The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST. The Mad Hedge Fund Trader Welcome to the New Year!. Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader January 4, 2012 www.madhedgefundtrader.com. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Please Stand By forJohn Thomas
Wednesday, January 4, 2012Trade Alert Service
The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST
![Page 2: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The Mad Hedge Fund TraderWelcome to the New Year!
Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
January 4, 2012
www.madhedgefundtrader.com
![Page 3: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
MHFT Global Strategy LuncheonsBuy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.com
Beverly Hills SeminarJanuary 23, 2012
1:30-5:00
![Page 4: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
MHFT Global Strategy LuncheonsBuy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.com
Las VegasJanuary 27, 2012
HoustonFebruary 9, 2012
![Page 5: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Trade Alert Performance
*December final -2.08%
*First 58 weeks of Trading+ 40.17%
*Versus +0.3% for the S&P500A 39.9% outperformance of the index47 out of 56 closed trades profitable
84% success rate
![Page 6: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Portfolio ReviewTrade or Die
Mad Hedge Fund TraderTrading BookAsset Class BreakdownRisk Adjusted Basis
current capital at risk
Risk On
Risk Off
total 0.00%
*No Trade*We are in the middle of all ranges*Wait for the markets to come to you*Wait for the markets to get overbought or oversold*Maintain your discipline*Go do some research
![Page 7: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
The Economy
*The positive economic data continues
*ISM Manufacturing Index for December from 52.7 to 53.well over expansionary 50 level
*Data suggest Q4 is looking like a 3%-3.5% pop
*Weekly jobless claims at 381,000well into expansion territory
*Everyone is waiting for the first Europeanrecessionary data
*Friday nonfarm payroll expected to be good
*All consistent with a low 2.0% GDP growth rate growing as slow as molasses
![Page 8: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
December ISM
![Page 9: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Bonds
*Still is not buying the “RISK ON” scenario
*Ten year could go to 1.60% in the next “RISK OFF” round
*Long term charts show the uptrend is still alive
*Bonds are predicting deflation and recession for 2012
*Waiting for the next Euro disaster
*Junk tracking nicely with equities
![Page 10: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
(TLT)
![Page 11: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
(TBT)
![Page 12: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
(JNK)
![Page 13: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Stocks
*The low volume grind around the 200 day moving average resolved to the upsidetriggering a general “RISK ON” move
*We are 72% through a 300 point (SPX) move from 1,060 to 1,360
*When Europe went on vacation, the US went up
*Still inside the range
*Value players and pension funds are makingtheir annual allocations
*High dividend multinationals leading
*Technology lagging
![Page 14: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
(SPY)
![Page 15: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
(INDU)
![Page 16: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Double Short S&P 500 ETF(SDS)
![Page 17: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
German DAX Composite(DAX)-21.5% YTD
![Page 18: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Russell 2000 (IWM)
![Page 19: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
NASDAQ
![Page 20: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
McDonalds (MCD)
![Page 21: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Starbucks (SBUX)
![Page 22: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
(VIX)
![Page 23: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
The Dollar
*Taking a rest while “RISK ON” is in vogue
*Euro is drifting up on a news drought
*Waiting to slam the Euro
*Ausie on fire, a nice short is setting up
*Italian bond yields lingering at the 7% handle
*German bond auction went well
*Europe has €750 billion to roll overat double the coupons
*Euro shorts at all time high
![Page 24: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
(UUP)
![Page 25: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
(FXE)
![Page 26: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
(EUO)
![Page 27: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Australian Dollar ($XAD)
![Page 28: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
(YCS)
![Page 29: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Energy*Iran scare bumps oil up to $103
*Great shorting opportunity setting up
*Look for a 2012 range of $75-$110
*At $110 USO puts start to look very interesting
*Iran will never block the straights of Hormuz
*China has quit buying Iranian oil, divertingships from elsewhere
*Will see $75 again in next big “RISK OFF” ROUND
*Natural gas hits new lows
![Page 30: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Crude
![Page 31: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Natural Gas
![Page 32: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Copper
![Page 33: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Precious Metals
*Interim low is hit
*The hot money is moving back in for a trade
*Possibly a $200 rally off lows
*Year end selling pressure from hedge funds is done
![Page 34: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Gold
![Page 35: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Silver
![Page 36: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
(Platinum)
![Page 37: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Palladium
![Page 38: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
The Ags
*Dry conditions in South America prompt a 10% rally
*USDA crop report coming up
*”RISK ON” is helping
*Stand aside-no trade
![Page 39: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
(CORN)
![Page 40: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
(DBA)
![Page 41: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Real EstateSeptember
![Page 42: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Trade SheetThe bottom line: Trade or die
*Stocks-stand aside, wait to short*Bonds- stand aside, wait for “RISK OFF”*Commodities- stand aside-middle of range*Currencies- sell Euro rallies from $1.33*Precious Metals-stand aside-is the move real?*Volatility-buy under $20*The ags – stand aside-missed the pop*Real estate-breaking to new lows
Next Webinar is on Wednesday, January 18, 2012
![Page 43: Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, January 4, 2012 Trade Alert Service](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062501/5681668d550346895dda5a9b/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
To access my research data base or buy strategy luncheon tickets Please Go to
www.madhedgefundtrader.cpm