playing numerous games during the first years of a professional

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1. Introduction

Playing numerous games during the first years of a professional career is an essential condition in order to be able to compete in the top level leagues worldwide. As a contin-uation of the analysis published in February 2015, this Monthly Report presents the ex-perience capital approach developed by the CIES Football Observatory to identify play-ers most likely to succeed in their career.

The paper first highlights the crucial role played by competitions outside of the big-5 leagues in the sporting development of foot-ballers present in the latter championships. Indeed, only a small minority of footballers playing in the five major European competi-tions have never taken part in other leagues from the beginning of their adult career up until their 23rd birthday.

Spotting future stars

Drs Raffaele Poli, Loïc Ravenel and Roger Besson

CIES Football Observatory Monthly ReportIssue no. 14 - April 2016

We go then on to explain the capital experi-ence method and we highlight the average values measured for players of the big-5 leagues. Within this framework, we list the young footballers who are currently part of these championships with the highest val-ues for experience. Finally, we review the most experienced U23 footballers among those currently playing in 26 other top divi-sion leagues of UEFA member associations.

Monthly Report no. 14 - Spotting future stars

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2. The importance of playing

Generally speaking, forwards start their professional career earlier than footballers in other positions. They are thus likely to play a greater number of matches for each age threshold up until 23. At the other ex-treme, goalkeepers are fielded less during the first years of their career. Indeed, for this position, experience is more important than physical fitness. This also holds true, to a lesser extent, for defenders.

Figure 1: Average number of domestic league matches played at adult level by big-5 league players, per age and position

Total

Until 19 years 11.1

Until 20 years 26.8

Until 21 years 46.9

Until 22 years 69.7

Until 23 years 93.9

Goalkeepers

Until 19 years 5.9

Until 20 years 15.4

Until 21 years 28.9

Until 22 years 45.6

Until 23 years 64.6

Defenders

Until 19 years 9.0

Until 20 years 23.7

Until 21 years 43.1

Until 22 years 65.2

Until 23 years 89.1

Current big-5 league footballers played on average 93.9 domestic league matches since the start of their professional career up until the semester preceding their 23rd birthday. The average number of matches played is 11.1 before 19 years of age, 26.8 before 20, 46.9 before 21, 69.7 before 22 and 93.9 be-fore 23. B-team games are also included.

Midfielders

Until 19 years 12.5

Until 20 years 29.8

Until 21 years 52.0

Until 22 years 76.2

Until 23 years 101.8

Forwards

Until 19 years 14.8

Until 20 years 32.8

Until 21 years 54.9

Until 22 years 80.4

Until 23 years 106.3


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Among players aged 23 or over currently under contract with big-5 league clubs, only 5.4% have always played in teams taking part in these championships between the start of the professional career and the semester preceding their 23rd birthday. This percent-age remains limited also by considering that footballers who played for B-teams of big-5 league clubs spent their entire career in the five major European championships: 16.6%.

The percentage of footballers having always played in the top leagues is particularly low among goalkeepers (3.3%). For other posi-tions, this figure is between 5 and 6%. Even by including footballers who always played for big-5 league clubs but participated in B-team matches, the proportion of those who spent their entire career in the most competitive championships is low: between 11.6% for forwards and 18.7% for midfield-ers.

This analysis illustrates the crucial role of leagues outside the big-5 in the develop-ment of players’ careers. This holds true also for the most talented footballers. This find-ing suggests that the optimisation of the en-vironment within which to promote talents goes hand in hand with partnerships and strategic alliances between teams of differ-ent levels.

Instead of recruiting a plethora of young tal-ents who will never get their chance at the highest level, and in the interests of both the game and the players themselves, the wealthiest teams would do better to coop-erate in a healthy and united manner with those of lesser means. This would permit the more regular fielding of talents since the very beginning of their adult career, which would give them the opportunity to fully de-velop their skills.

Figure 2: % of big-5 league footballers who always played in the big-5 leagues until the age of 23, per position

Type I Type II

Goalkeepers 3.3% 13.2%

Defenders 5.2% 18.4%

Midfielders 6.2% 18.7%

Forwards 5.3% 11.6%

Total 5.4% 16.6%

Type I : Footballers who only played in the big-5 leagues Type II : Footballers who only played in big-5 league clubs (including B-teams)


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3. The experience capital method

The notion of experience capital refers to matches played in adult championships up until 23 years of age. This age is also taken into account by FIFA for the payment of training compensation when a first profes-sional contract is signed.

To calculate experience capital, we attribute different values to matches according to an exclusive classification method that takes into account the performance of national as-sociation representatives in European club competitions, the division of the employ-er club in the domestic league and results achieved.

For extra-European countries, the value of matches was established according to correspondences made with European as-sociations. For example, all other things being equal, a Brazilian top division match is equivalent to one in the top Portuguese

league. This method allows us to compare the level of the experience gained by players on an international basis.

The analysis of the average experience cap-ital of big-5 league players is also useful in establishing thresholds above which players from outside these championships have a concrete possibility of successfully joining the five major European competitions in the near future. This analysis indicates that in order to be able to cope with big-5 league demands, midfielders and forwards need to accumulate more experience capital from the outset of their career than defenders and goalkeepers.

Figure 3: Average experience capital of big-5 league players, per age and position

Total

Until 19 years 3.9

Until 20 years 10.6

Until 21 years 20.9

Until 22 years 34.1

Until 23 years 49.9

Goalkeepers

Until 19 years 1.1

Until 20 years 3.7

Until 21 years 9.1

Until 22 years 17.0

Until 23 years 28.0

Defenders

Until 19 years 2.8

Until 20 years 8.9

Until 21 years 18.5

Until 22 years 31.0

Until 23 years 46.0

Midfielders

Until 19 years 4.7

Until 20 years 12.5

Until 21 years 24.4

Until 22 years 39.3

Until 23 years 56.9

Forwards

Until 19 years 6.0

Until 20 years 14.1

Until 21 years 25.6

Until 22 years 40.6

Until 23 years 57.8


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Hereafter, we present the five big-5 league players with the highest values for experi-ence capital per position and year of birth. Among them are several players that are likely to leave their mark on the history of football. Despite their tender years, quite a number of them are already full internation-als.

In the rankings for goalkeepers are notably two who were born in 1999: Gianluigi Don-narumma (Milan) and Alban Lafont (Tou-louse). Our analysis also allows us to high-light goalkeepers whose experience capital is well above the average measured for all big-5 league goalkeepers at the same age: Mouez Hassan (Nice), Paul Nardi (Monaco), Pau López (Espanyol), Jan Oblak (Atlético Madrid), Timo Horn (Cologne), Alphonse Aréola (Villarreal, on loan from Paris St-Germain), Loris Karius (Mainz) and Jack Butland (Stoke).

Figure 4: Most experienced young goalkeepers, big-5 leagues

Born in 1996 or after

1. Gianluigi Donnarumma 10.8Milan AC (ITA)

2. Josip Posavec 6.2Palermo US (ITA)

3. Paul Bernardoni 3.9FC Girondins de Bordeaux (FRA)

4. Alban Lafont 3.3Toulouse FC (FRA)

5. Paul André Guerin 1.4GFCO Ajaccio (FRA)

Born in 1995

1. Mouez Hassen 34.9OGC Nice (FRA)

2. Rubén Blanco 8.5RC Celta de Vigo (ESP)

3. Pierluigi Gollini 5.1Hellas Verona FC (ITA)

4. Mike Maignan 3.0LOSC Lille (FRA)

5. Luca Lezzerini 1.2AC Fiorentina (ITA)

Born in 1994

1. Paul Nardi 29.2AS Monaco (FRA)

2. Pau López 25.9RCD Espanyol (ESP)

3. Odisseas Vlachodimos 15.4VfB Stuttgart (GER)

4. Yoan Cardinale 5.7OGC Nice (FRA)

Born in 1993

1. Jan Oblak 96.5Club Atlético de Madrid (ESP)

2. Timo Horn 85.81. FC Köln (GER)

3. Alphonse Aréola 68.5Villarreal CF (ESP)

4. Loris Karius 68.11. FSV Mainz 05 (GER)

5. Jack Butland 67.5Stoke City FC (ENG)


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Precocious players are also numerous among centre backs. Three of the five most experienced central defenders according to year of birth are playing in Spain: Jorge Meré (Gijón), Aymeric Laporte (Bilbao) and Raphaël Varane (Real Madrid). The two oth-er footballers heading the rankings are also on their way to pursuing a top flight career: Jonathan Tah (Bayer Leverkusen) and Ales-sio Romagnoli (Milan).

Among the most experienced young centre backs, similar to Raphaël Varane and Jona-than Tah, are several other players who have already played in national A-teams: Andre-as Christensen (Danemark), José Giménez (Uruguay), Tin Jedvaj (Croatia), Patrick Mc-Nair (Northern Ireland), Marquinhos Aoás (Brazil), Kurt Zouma (France), John Stones (England), Karim Rekik (Netherlands), Mat-ija Nastasić (Serbia), John Brooks (United States) and Antonio Rüdiger (Germany).

Figure 5: Most experienced young centre backs, big-5 leagues


1. Jorge Meré 19.4Real Sporting de Gijón (ESP)

2. Joe Gomez 15.2Liverpool FC (ENG)

3. Olivier Boscagli 8.7OGC Nice (FRA)

4. Issa Diop 3.3Toulouse FC (FRA)

5. Diego Alende 2.9RC Celta de Vigo (ESP)

Born in 1996

1. Jonathan Tah 35.6Bayer 04 Leverkusen (GER)

2. Timo Baumgartl 26.4VfB Stuttgart (GER)

3. Nico Elvedi 19.8Borussia Mönchengladbach (GER)

4. Andreas Christensen 15.7Borussia Mönchengladbach (GER)

5. Benjamin Pavard 11.4LOSC Lille (FRA)

Born in 1995

1. Alessio Romagnoli 61.7Milan AC (ITA)

2. José Giménez 57.9Club Atlético de Madrid (ESP)

3. Niklas Süle 46.6TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (GER)

4. Tin Jedvaj 33.9Bayer 04 Leverkusen (GER)

5. Patrick McNair 26.2Manchester United FC (ENG)

Born in 1994

1. Aymeric Laporte 112.5Athletic Club Bilbao (ESP)

2. Marquinhos Aoás 103.5Paris St-Germain FC (FRA)

3. Kurt Zouma 96.0Chelsea FC (ENG)

4. John Stones 75.8Everton FC (ENG)

5. Karim Rekik 58.6Olympique de Marseille (FRA)

Born in 1993

1. Raphaël Varane 134.6Real Madrid CF (ESP)

2. Samuel Umtiti 107.3Olympique Lyonnais (FRA)

3. Matija Nastasić 88.7FC Schalke 04 (GER)

4. John Brooks 68.7Hertha BSC Berlin (GER)

5. Antonio Rüdiger 65.5AS Roma (ITA)


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The five full backs at the top of the experi-ence rankings play in clubs that are gener-ally in the first half of the table in their re-spective league: Villareal (Adrián Marín), Everton (Brendan Galloway), Manchester United (Luke Shaw), Borussia Dortmund (Matthias Ginter) and Rome (Lucas Digne). However, with the exception of Adrián Marín, none of these players were trained in the youth academy of their employer club.

The greatest merit in the blossoming of these talents goes to Milton Keynes for Galloway, Southampton for Shaw, Freiburg for Ginter and Lille for Digne. Despite their young age, most of the players at the top of the experi-ence rankings have been already the object of at least one transfer. This observation highlights the process of intensification of the mobility of the most promising players from a very early age (see Monthly Report n° 13).

Figure 6: Most experienced young full backs, big-5 leagues


1. Adrián Marín 15.3Villarreal CF (ESP)

2. Pedro Pereira 5.9Sampdoria UC (ITA)

3. Cameron Borthwick-Jackson 3.3Manchester United FC (ENG)

4. Ronaël Pierre-Gabriel 1.6AS St-Etienne (FRA)

5. Giuseppe Pezzella 0.6Palermo US (ITA)

Born in 1996

1. Brendan Galloway 18.9Everton FC (ENG)

2. Milan Gajić 15.0FC Girondins de Bordeaux (FRA)

3. Almamy Touré 14.3AS Monaco (FRA)

4. Yanni Regäsel 12.3Eintracht Frankfurt (GER)

5. Ulisses Garcia 5.8SV Werder Bremen (GER)

Born in 1995

1. Luke Shaw 83.2Manchester United FC (ENG)

2. José Luis Gayá 72.3Valencia CF (ESP)

3. Calum Chambers 65.3Arsenal FC (ENG)

4. Héctor Bellerín 53.9Arsenal FC (ENG)

5. Rubén Duarte 32.9RCD Espanyol (ESP)

Born in 1994

1. Matthias Ginter 89.4BV 09 Borussia Dortmund (GER)

2. Benjamin Mendy 87.5Olympique de Marseille (FRA)

3. Elseid Hysaj 84.0SSC Napoli (ITA)

4. Jonny Castro 69.5RC Celta de Vigo (ESP)

5. Abdul Rahman Baba 53.4Chelsea FC (ENG)

Born in 1993

1. Lucas Digne 103.4AS Roma (ITA)

2. Juan Bernat 101.7FC Bayern München (GER)

3. Fabinho Tavares 97.7AS Monaco (FRA)

4. Ben Davies 90.9Tottenham Hotspur FC (ENG)

5. Raphaël Guerreiro 77.2FC Lorient (FRA)


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The list of big-5 league central midfielders with the most experience according to year of birth is impressive: Amadou Diawara, Danilo Barbosa, Adrien Rabiot, Mateo Kovačić and Paul Pogba. As their collegues ahead of them, players ranked in second position will also probably be future World Cup participants: Assane Dioussé (Sene-gal), Mahmoud Dahoud, Leon Goretzka and Emre Can (Germany), as well as Geoffrey Kondogbia (France).

None of the five central midfielders in the five top positions of the experience rankings playing in Serie A clubs is Italian: Amadou Diawara (Guinea), Assane Dioussé (Sene-gal), Godfred Donsah (Ghana), Paul Pogba (France) and Geoffrey Kondogbia (France). This observation confirms the reticence of clubs from the Peninsula to give young na-tionals their chance (see Monthly Report n° 13).

Figure 7: Most experienced young central midfielders, big-5 leagues


1. Amadou Diawara 13.1Bologna FC (ITA)

2. Assane Dioussé 11.2Empoli FC (ITA)

3. Lucas Tousart 6.3Olympique Lyonnais (FRA)

4. Pape Diop 6.0RC Celta de Vigo (ESP)

5. Fran Villalba 4.4Valencia CF (ESP)

Born in 1996

1. Danilo Barbosa 32.9Valencia CF (ESP)

2. Mahmoud Dahoud 20.5Borussia Mönchengladbach (GER)

3. Godfred Donsah 18.6Bologna FC (ITA)

4. Albert Rafetraniaina 18.5OGC Nice (FRA)

5. Max Christiansen 12.8FC Ingolstadt 04 (GER)

Born in 1995

1. Adrien Rabiot 91.2Paris St-Germain FC (FRA)

2. Leon Goretzka 67.6FC Schalke 04 (GER)

3. Pierre-Emile Höjbjerg 59.2FC Schalke 04 (GER)

4. Mario Pasalić 46.6AS Monaco (FRA)

5. Julian Weigl 39.9BV 09 Borussia Dortmund (GER)

Born in 1994

1. Mateo Kovačić 112.8Real Madrid CF (ESP)

2. Emre Can 96.1Liverpool FC (ENG)

3. James Ward-Prowse 90.5Southampton FC (ENG)

4. Maximilian Arnold 90.2VfL Wolfsburg (GER)

5. Saúl Ñíguez 90.1Club Atlético de Madrid (ESP)

Born in 1993

1. Paul Pogba 152.7Juventus FC (ITA)

2. Geoffrey Kondogbia 114.2Internazionale Milano FC (ITA)

3. Johannes Geis 85.7FC Schalke 04 (GER)

4. André Gomes 85.0Valencia CF (ESP)

5. Jordan Veretout 77.3Aston Villa FC (ENG)


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Players with five different nationalities head the rankings for attacking midfielders: France (Allan Saint-Maximin), Germany (Julian Brandt), Belgium (Adnan Januzaj), Spain (Gerard Deulofeu) and England (Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain). The young Totten-ham and England prodigy Dele Alli is second among players born in 1996, just ahead of an-other extraordinary talent: the Croatian Alen Halilović (Gijón, on loan from Barcelona).

Like Halilović, other young players among the most experienced for their age group were loaned during the 2015/16 season or have already been loaned out in the past: Allan Saint-Maximin, Jérémie Boga, Jordon Ibe, Adnan Januzaj, Gerard Deulofeu, Moi Gómez, Rafinha Alcântara, Ross Barkley, as well as Florian Thauvin. For owner clubs, the recourse to loaning for young talents is a way to test their skills in teams with a lower level, with the hope that they will be able to acquire the experience necessary to have a successful career.

Figure 8: Most experienced young attacking midfielders, big-5 leagues


1. Allan Saint-Maximin 17.3Hannover 96 (GER)

2. Andrija Balić 11.8Udinese Calcio (ITA)

3. Jérémie Boga 9.0Stade Rennais FC (FRA)

4. Ousmane Dembélé 6.5Stade Rennais FC (FRA)

5. Mikel Oiarzabal 6.2Real Sociedad de Fútbol (ESP)

Born in 1996

1. Julian Brandt 55.5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (GER)

2. Dele Alli 43.8Tottenham Hotspur FC (ENG)

3. Alen Halilović 40.9Real Sporting de Gijón (ESP)

4. Dani Ceballos 39.6Real Betis Balompié (ESP)

5. Matías Nahuel 39.1Villarreal CF (ESP)

Born in 1995

1. Adnan Januzaj 63.6Manchester United FC (ENG)

2. Jordon Ibe 49.5Liverpool FC (ENG)

3. Samu Castillejo 48.4Villarreal CF (ESP)

4. Georges-Kevin N'Koudou 32.3Olympique de Marseille (FRA)

5. Thomas Lemar 30.1AS Monaco (FRA)

Born in 1994

1. Gerard Deulofeu 109.6Everton FC (ENG)

2. Lucas Ocampos 107.9Olympique de Marseille (FRA)

3. Nathan Redmond 96.3Norwich City FC (ENG)

4. Moi Gómez 89.5Getafe CF (ESP)

5. Hakan Çalhanoğlu 88.3Bayer 04 Leverkusen (GER)

Born in 1993

1. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain 139.8Arsenal FC (ENG)

2. Julian Draxler 138.2VfL Wolfsburg (GER)

3. Rafinha Alcântara 115.4FC Barcelona (ESP)

4. Ross Barkley 112.5Everton FC (ENG)

5. Florian Thauvin 101.7Olympique de Marseille (FRA)


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Trained by FC Basle, the Swiss, with Kosovan origins, Albian Ajeti is the most experienced among the U19 forwards. He is ranked ahead of another player whose fu-ture looks bright: Borja Mayoral (Real Ma-drid). His enrollment in the Madrid club, where young players generally see little use, may oblige him seek his fortune elsewhere to pursue his career successfully. The case of Álvaro Morata, trained by Real and trans-ferred to Juventus with a buyback clause, is in this sense exemplary.

At the top of the list for other age groups is the German Timo Werner, as well as three full internationals: Divock Origi, Raheem Sterling and Romelu Lukaku. Other foot-ballers having already played for national A-teams feature in the rankings: Rey Manaj, Kingsley Coman, Leroy Sané, Anthony Mar-tial, Ángel Correa, Memphis Depay, Paco Al-cácer, Harry Kane and Mauro Icardi.

Figure 9: Most experienced young forwards, big-5 leagues


1. Albian Ajeti 11.2FC Augsburg (GER)

2. Borja Mayoral 8.5Real Madrid CF (ESP)

3. Paulin Puel 8.4OGC Nice (FRA)

4. Rey Manaj 8.3Internazionale Milano FC (ITA)

5. Jean-Kévin Augustin 8.2Paris St-Germain FC (FRA)

Born in 1996

1. Timo Werner 51.0VfB Stuttgart (GER)

2. Kingsley Coman 40.9FC Bayern München (GER)

3. Neal Maupay 40.2AS St-Etienne (FRA)

4. Isaac Success 29.2Granada CF (ESP)

5. Leroy Sané 29.1FC Schalke 04 (GER)

Born in 1995

1. Divock Origi 75.4Liverpool FC (ENG)

2. Anthony Martial 69.6Manchester United FC (ENG)

3. Santi Mina 59.6Valencia CF (ESP)

4. Sandro Ramírez 54.7FC Barcelona (ESP)

5. Ángel Correa 46.5Club Atlético de Madrid (ESP)

Born in 1994

1. Raheem Sterling 142.2Manchester City FC (ENG)

2. M'Baye Niang 88.8Milan AC (ITA)

3. Memphis Depay 82.9Manchester United FC (ENG)

4. Domenico Berardi 77.3US Sassuolo (ITA)

5. Armindo Bruma 55.0Real Sociedad de Fútbol (ESP)

Born in 1993

1. Romelu Lukaku 168.7Everton FC (ENG)

2. Connor Wickham 112.6Crystal Palace FC (ENG)

3. Paco Alcácer 106.1Valencia CF (ESP)

4. Harry Kane 101.7Tottenham Hotspur FC (ENG)

5. Mauro Icardi 96.2Internazionale Milano FC (ITA)


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4. Non big-5 league talents

This section presents the U23 footballers playing outside the five major European championships with the highest values in terms of experience capital per position. Among the youngest age groups, we find numerous footballers whose experience ac-cumulated during career is greater than that of most of their contemporaries playing in big-5 league clubs. This situation reflects the difficulty of getting regular games in the most competitive championships at the start of the career.


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No big-5 goalkeeper of the same age has as much experience capital as Bartomiej Dra-gowski and Yvon Mvogo. Dragowski made his debut in the Polish top division in 2014, when he was only 16 years of age. He imme-diately became the first choice goalkeeper for Jagiellonia Bialystok, the club which trained him and where he has already played over 50 domestic league matches. He has represent-ed the U21 Polish team.

Born in 1994, Mvogo has already played al-most 100 official matches with Young Boys, one of the best Swiss clubs. He has also been selected for the Swiss national team despite fierce competition. He is soon likely to be recruited by a big-5 league team. He should however make sure he does not jump the gun. He should take his time to choose a club that will sign him as a first choice. If this is not the case, given the longevity of goalkeepers’ careers, it would be wiser for him to wait a little longer.

Figure 10: Most experienced young goalkeepers, 26 top division European leagues


1. Bartlomiej Dragowski 14.7Jagiellonia Bialystok SSA (POL)

2. Djordje Nikolić 2.9FK Jagodina (SRB)

3. Adam Jakubech 2.2FC Spartak Trnava (SVK)

4. Aleksandar Vitanov 1.0PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv (BUL)

5. Oscar Linnér 0.8AIK Solna (SWE)

Born in 1996

1. Marko Marić 10.4KS Lechia Gdańsk (POL)

2. Osman Hadzikić 10.3FK Austria Wien (AUT)

3. Grega Sorcan 7.1ND Gorica (SVN)

4. Per Kristian Bratveit 5.2FK Haugesund (NOR)

5. Joël Drommel 4.6FC Twente (NED)

Born in 1995

1. Georgi Kitanov 20.8PFC Cherno More Varna (BUL)

2. Predrag Rajković 19.8Maccabi Tel Aviv FC (ISR)

3. Dominik Livaković 19.0NK Zagreb (CRO)

4. Valentin Cojocaru 10.4FC Steaua Bucureşti (ROM)

5. Roman Pidkivka 9.8FC Karpaty Lviv (UKR)

Born in 1994

1. Yvon Mvogo 49.1BSC Young Boys (SUI)

2. Markus Kuster 19.0SV Mattersburg (AUT)

3. Merveille Goblet 15.7KV RS Waasland Beveren (BEL)

4. Mickey van der Hart 14.9FC Zwolle (NED)

5. Rui Silva 14.1CD Nacional (POR)

Born in 1993

1. Mykyta Shevchenko 30.5FC Zorya Luhansk (UKR)

2. José Sá 27.8FC Porto (POR)

3. Oliver Zelenika 24.2NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (CRO)

4. Lukas Raeder 23.5Vitória FC Setúbal (POR)

5. Zauri Makharadze 22.8FC Olimpik Donetsk (UKR)


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In Europe, no centre back born in 1996 has as much experience capital as Jairo Riede-wald. Three days before his 19th birthday, the Ajax player made his debut in the Dutch national A-team. He was 17 years and three months old when he first played in the Ere-divisie with Ajax. He came onto the pitch in the 80th minute when his team was being beaten 0-1 at Kerkhade against Roda. Final-ly, Ajax won 2-1 thanks to two goals scored by Riedewald. It is hard to imagine a better debut.

Leading the rankings of players born in 1995 is Jason Denayer. Trained according to the methods of one of the best experts in the business, the Frenchman Jean-Marc Guil-lou, Denayer was quickly recruited by Man-chester City. The English club first loaned him to Celtic Glasgow and then again to Ga-latasaray. Time will tell if the Belgian inter-national will be able to successfully establish himself in his home club.

Figure 11: Most experienced young centre backs, 26 top division European leagues


1. Ertuğrul Ersoy 8.0Çaykur Rizespor Kulübü (TUR)

2. Ventsislav Kerchev 4.3PFC Ludogorets Razgrad (BUL)

3. Filip Benković 4.2GNK Dinamo Zagreb (CRO)

4. Filip Dagerstal 3.2IFK Norrköping (SWE)

5. Noah Loosli 1.9Grasshopper Club Zürich (SUI)

Born in 1996

1. Jairo Riedewald 36.7AFC Ajax (NED)

2. Duje Caleta-Car 18.4FC RB Salzburg (AUT)

3. John Souttar 17.7Heart of Midlothian FC (SCO)

4. Ionuț Nedelcearu 15.9FC Dinamo Bucureşti (ROM)

5. Jordan McGhee 15.4Heart of Midlothian FC (SCO)

Born in 1995

1. Jason Denayer 20.5Galatasaray SK (TUR)

2. Jean-Charles Castelletto 19.8Royal Mouscron-Péruwelz (BEL)

3. Peet Bijen 16.5FC Twente (NED)

4. Robert Hodorogea 15.7FC Viitorul Constanța (ROM)

5. Vyacheslav Lukhtanov 15.1FC Hoverla Uzhhorod (UKR)

Born in 1994

1. Sven van Beek 40.1Feyenoord Rotterdam (NED)

2. Tobias Figueiredo 38.7Sporting Clube de Portugal (POR)

3. Patrick Banggaard 36.9FC Midtjylland (DEN)

4. Ahmet Çalık 36.8Gençlerbirliği SK (TUR)

5. Pascal Gregor 32.4FC Nordsjælland (DEN)

Born in 1993

1. Konstantinos Triantafyllopoulos 43.4Asteras Tripolis FC (GRE)

2. Frederico Venâncio 43.0Vitória FC Setúbal (POR)

3. Kenneth Omeruo 41.8Kasımpaşa SK (TUR)

4. Andrei Marc 40.2FC Dinamo Bucureşti (ROM)

5. Emil Bergström 39.7Djurgårdens IF (SWE)


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The experience capital of two full backs is greater than that of all their big-5 league contemporaries playing in the same posi-tion: Kevin Diks and Linus Wahlqvist. They both were born in the last three months of the year: October for Diks and November for Wahlqvist. This only makes their statis-tics more impressive (see Monthly Report n° 10).

It would not be surprising to see Kevin Diks join Chelsea, a club with which his home team, Vitesse Arnhem, enjoys a privileged relationship. As for Linus Wahlqvist, his quality performances have already been re-warded with two caps for the Swedish na-tional A-team. After Euro 2016, it is a likely bet that he will be transferred to a club par-ticipating in a wealthier and more compet-itive league than the Swedish top division championship.

Figure 12: Most experienced young full backs, 26 top division European leagues


1. Cristian Manea 13.6Royal Mouscron-Péruwelz (BEL)

2. Hidde ter Avest 9.9FC Twente (NED)

3. Vasyl Kravets 7.8FC Karpaty Lviv (UKR)

4. Kieran Tierney 5.0Celtic FC (SCO)

5. Silvan Hefti 4.5FC St. Gallen (SUI)

Born in 1996

1. Kevin Diks 24.5Vitesse Arnhem (NED)

2. Linus Wahlqvist 19.2IFK Norrköping (SWE)

3. Josip Filipović 13.4NK Zavrč (SVN)

4. Oleksandr Kaplienko 11.8FC Metalist Kharkiv (UKR)

5. Juraj Chvátal 9.51. FC Slovácko (CZE)

Born in 1995

1. Eduard Sobol 36.5FC Metalist Kharkiv (UKR)

2. Elmir Nabiullin 31.2FC Rubin Kazan (RUS)

3. Kenny Tete 30.4AFC Ajax (NED)

4. Guillermo Cotugno 23.1FC Rubin Kazan (RUS)

5. Rick Karsdorp 22.9Feyenoord Rotterdam (NED)

Born in 1994

1. Terence Kongolo 48.6Feyenoord Rotterdam (NED)

2. Frederik Holst 41.1Brøndby IF (DEN)

3. Steliano Filip 40.9FC Dinamo Bucureşti (ROM)

4. Thomas Foket 40.5KAA Gent (BEL)

5. Ludwig Augustinsson 40.0FC København (DEN)

Born in 1993

1. Ricardo Esgaio 54.7Sporting Clube de Portugal (POR)

2. Arthur Masuaku 47.6Olympiacos FC (GRE)

3. Bruno Gaspar 47.1Vitória SC Guimarães (POR)

4. Mitchell Dijks 46.0AFC Ajax (NED)

5. Jonas Svensson 44.4Rosenborg BK (NOR)


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Four players stand out among the central midfielders born in 1997. Their experience capital is greater than any big-5 league foot-baller of the same position born in the same year: Rúben Neves (Porto), Youri Tielemans (Anderlecht), Renato Sanches (Benfica) and Dragoș Nedelcu (Viitorul Constanța). The level of experience of Neves and Tielemans is particularly impressive: it is even greater than the highest values measured for big-5 league players born in 1996.

The experience capital of Riechedly Bazoer is also superior to any big-5 league central midfielder born in the same year. The Ajax player made his debut in the Dutch national A-team one month after having celebrated his 19th birthday. Another precocious tal-ent to follow closely is Tonny Vilhena. His departure to a big-5 club appears very likely during the 2016 summer transfer window. His contract with Feyenoord runs out next June and clubs interested in his services could recruit him without having to pay a transfer fee.

Figure 13: Most experienced young central midfielders, 26 top division European leagues


1. Rúben Neves 43.1FC Porto (POR)

2. Youri Tielemans 38.9RSC Anderlecht (BEL)

3. Renato Sanches 23.0SL Benfica (POR)

4. Dragoș Nedelcu 15.1FC Viitorul Constanța (ROM)

5. Konrad Laimer 10.3FC RB Salzburg (AUT)

Born in 1996

1. Riechedly Bazoer 33.1AFC Ajax (NED)

2. Razvan Marin 21.5FC Viitorul Constanța (ROM)

3. Viktor Kovalenko 19.9FC Shakhtar Donetsk (UKR)

4. Miroslav Káčer 18.6MŠK Žilina (SVK)

5. Liam Henderson 18.4Hibernian FC (SCO)

Born in 1995

1. Tonny Vilhena 67.6Feyenoord Rotterdam (NED)

2. Jorrit Hendrix 44.6PSV Eindhoven (NED)

3. Ozan Tufan 35.5Fenerbahçe SK (TUR)

4. Danny Bakker 29.3ADO Den Haag (NED)

5. Naby Keïta 27.8FC RB Salzburg (AUT)

Born in 1994

1. Anderson Talisca 63.9SL Benfica (POR)

2. Okay Yokuşlu 59.0Trabzonspor Kulübü (TUR)

3. José Rodríguez 55.5Galatasaray SK (TUR)

4. Simon Tibbling 40.7FC Groningen (NED)

5. Leonardo Bertone 37.4BSC Young Boys (SUI)

Born in 1993

1. João Mário 84.7Sporting Clube de Portugal (POR)

2. Fred Rodrigues 76.1FC Shakhtar Donetsk (UKR)

3. Raphael Holzhauser 63.8FK Austria Wien (AUT)

4. Ergys Kaçe 58.7PAOK FC (GRE)

5. Dimitrios Kourbelis 47.2Asteras Tripolis FC (GRE)


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The only attacking midfielder whose experi-ence capital is greater than any other big-5 league player of the same age and position is Ante Ćorić. Aged 19, he has already played more than 50 matches in the best perform-ing Croatian club: Dinamo Zagreb. He also has had a Champions League experience and has already been selected to play for the U21 Croatian side. His compatriot from Hajduk Split, Nikola Vlašić, also has a bright future to look forward to.

The rankings also include other talents who will probably soon be recruited by teams from the five major European leagues. The most experienced attacking midfielder among those born in 1994, Lazar Marković, has already played in the English Premier League. His home club, Liverpool, lent him to Fenerbahçe for the 2015/16 season. An-other footballer playing in Turkey, Kerim Frei, has already had the chance to play in the Premier League at the start of his career.

Figure 14: Most experienced young attacking midfielders, 26 top division European leagues


1. Ante Ćorić 23.5GNK Dinamo Zagreb (CRO)

2. Nikola Vlašić 16.4HNK Hajduk Split (CRO)

3. Daniel de Silva 13.2Roda JC Kerkrade (NED)

4. Nikolas Spalek 11.0MŠK Žilina (SVK)

5. Bozhidar Kraev 9.8PFC Levski Sofia (BUL)

Born in 1996

1. Gonçalo Guedes 35.5SL Benfica (POR)

2. Valeri Luchkevych 22.4FC Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk (UKR)

3. Dabney dos Santos 21.1AZ Alkmaar (NED)

4. Diogo Jota 19.0FC Paços de Ferreira (POR)

5. Matheus Pereira 16.7Sporting Clube de Portugal (POR)

Born in 1995

1. Marko Pjaca 40.4GNK Dinamo Zagreb (CRO)

2. Aleksey Miranchuk 39.3FC Lokomotiv Moskva (RUS)

3. Otávio Monteiro 37.7Vitória SC Guimarães (POR)

4. Daley Sinkgraven 36.3AFC Ajax (NED)

5. Pione Sisto 36.2FC Midtjylland (DEN)

Born in 1994

1. Lazar Marković 82.3Fenerbahçe SK (TUR)

2. Carlos Mané 66.8Sporting Clube de Portugal (POR)

3. Dennis Praet 57.5RSC Anderlecht (BEL)

4. Diego Lopes 57.3Kayserispor (TUR)

5. Ivan Petryak 40.7FC Zorya Luhansk (UKR)

Born in 1993

1. Adam Maher 90.5PSV Eindhoven (NED)

2. Nicolae Stanciu 76.3FC Steaua Bucureşti (ROM)

3. Rafa Silva 74.8SC Braga (POR)

4. Davy Klaassen 64.0AFC Ajax (NED)

. Kerim Frei 64.0Beşiktaş JK (TUR)


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One player stands out clearly from other forwards: Breel Embolo. An undeniable FC Basle first team mainstay, the Swiss with Cameroon origins is also a key player in the Swiss national A-team. His experience capital is greater than all big-5 league for-ward born in 1997. He would also be ranked fourth among the players born in 1996. He has been on the radar of numerous top lev-el European clubs and his transfer fee will probably be in the tens of millions of euro.

Other players born in 1997 have accumulat-ed more experience than any forward in the five major European championships: Enes Ünal (NAC Breda, on loan from Manchester City), David Kownacki (Lech Poznań), Xan-de Silva (Vitória Guimarães) and Luka Jo-vić (Benfica). The latter was recruited by the Portuguese side in January 2016 from Red Star of Belgrade. Andrei Ivan (Craiova) and Sander Svendsen (Molde) are also destined for top level careers.

Figure 15: Most experienced young forwards, 26 top division European leagues


1. Breel Embolo 38.2FC Basel 1893 (SUI)

2. Enes Ünal 26.3NAC Breda (NED)

3. Dawid Kownacki 18.5KKS Lech Poznań (POL)

4. Xande Silva 18.4Vitória SC Guimarães (POR)

5. Luka Jović 16.8SL Benfica (POR)

Born in 1996

1. Richairo Živković 36.7AFC Ajax (NED)

2. Alexandru Tudorie 25.9FC Voluntari (ROM)

3. Andrija Živković 22.9FK Partizan (SRB)

4. Gustav Engvall 21.9IFK Göteborg (SWE)

5. Siebe Schrijvers 21.2KV RS Waasland Beveren (BEL)

Born in 1995

1. Dorin Rotariu 48.8FC Dinamo Bucureşti (ROM)

2. Sardar Azmoun 38.2FC Rostov (RUS)

3. Ivo Rodrigues 37.4FC Arouca (POR)

4. Anwar El Ghazi 34.8AFC Ajax (NED)

5. Takumi Minamino 34.0FC RB Salzburg (AUT)

Born in 1994

1. Arkadiusz Milik 65.9AFC Ajax (NED)

2. Jean-Paul Boëtius 59.2FC Basel 1893 (SUI)

3. Lucas Andersen 56.6Willem II Tilburg (NED)

4. Viktor Fischer 54.3AFC Ajax (NED)

5. Anthony Limbombe 50.4NEC Nijmegen (NED)

Born in 1993

1. Jürgen Locadia 63.2PSV Eindhoven (NED)

2. Yuya Kubo 60.6BSC Young Boys (SUI)

3. Jesús Corona 59.0FC Porto (POR)

4. Andreas Cornelius 54.1FC København (DEN)

5. Mikael Ishak 53.2Randers FC (DEN)


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5. Stastistics at the service of recruitment

The experience capital method developed by the CIES Football Observatory research group provides the basis for the setting up of an efficient talent spotting system. With an economy of means, it firstly allows teams covering a large number of countries. Pro-fessional clubs can thus hope to outflank the competition even if they do not have a ful-ly-fledged recruitment structure.

Moreover, the approach presented in this study permits the pinpointing of countries where footballers are generally given a suf-ficient playing time allowing them to fully develop their potential (see also Monthly Report n°13). The success of a career in as competitive an environment as football de-pends indeed on the context in which the player finds himself as much as his intrinsic talent.

Finally, the method of experience capital allows clubs to optimise their approach re-garding transfers by considerably reducing the risks inherent in such operations, from both the sporting and economic point of view. For recruiting clubs, there is indeed no better guarantee than signing footballers who have had the opportunity to play as of-ten as possible at the highest possible level taking into account their age and talent.

Our research team is at the service of clubs interested in finding out more about the practical modalities of implementing a tal-ent spotting system of this kind.

playing numerous games during the first years of a professional

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