Planning for Recovery of Long-Term Storage Credits:

ICUA & Firming

AWBA Commission Work Study SessionFebruary 1, 2006

Chuck Cullom, CAP Resource, Planning, & Analysis

AWBA Storage 1997 – 2005(LTSC ~ 2,311 kaf, AWBA 2006 APO)

0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000

Phx AMA -Maricopa Co

Pinal AMA -Pinal Co

Tuc AMA -Pima Co

General Fund Withdrawal Fees 4-cent Tax SNWA

~1,093 kaf

~897 kaf~321 kaf

TWO TYPES OF RECOVERY

FIRMINGICUA

SNWA

AWBA

CAWCD CAWCD

Shortage

LTSC

AWBA

LTSC

•CAP M&I•On-River•Indian

•InterstateIC

UA

CAPCustomers

LTSC

CAPCustomers

LTSC

On-River

ICUA Recovery Planning Schedule:

SNWA 2007 – 2008 Not exceeding 20,000 af per year Notice of Intent by June 1 of preceding year Comprehensive Plan by November of preceding year

SNWA 2009 – 2010: Not exceeding 30,000 af per year

SNWA 2011 – Completion (or 6/1/2060): Not exceeding 40,000 af per year

Firming Recovery Schedule: 2017, Shortage Probability ~ 25%

PROBABILITY OF SHORTAGEUPPER BASIN LIM ITED TO 4.8 M AF - AWBA PROJECTION

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Pro

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bil

ity

Interim Surplus Guidelines - Ending in 2016, 80P1050 First Level Shortage, Mead Minim um Elevation - 1,000 feet, Upper Basin Lim ited to 4.8 MAF - AWBA Projection,YDP Starts in 2009, 500 KAF ShortageInterim Surplus Guidelines - Ending in 2016, Tiered Shortage Strategy - 200 KAF, 400 KAF, 600 KAF (Tier Starts at 1,075), Mead Minim um Elevation - 1,000 feet, UpperBasin Lim ited to 4.8 MAF - AWBA Projection, YDP Starts in 2009Interim Surplus Guidelines - Ending in 2016, Tiered Shortage Strategy - 300 KAF, 500 KAF, 800 KAF (Tier Starts at 1,075), Mead Minim um Elevation - 1,000 feet, UpperBasin Lim ited to 4.8 MAF - AWBA Projection, YDP Starts in 2009Interim Surplus Guidelines - Ending in 2016, Tiered Shortage Strategy - 400 KAF, 500 KAF, 600 KAF (Tier Starts at 1,075), Mead Minim um Elevation - 1,000 feet, UpperBasin Lim ited to 4.8 MAF - AWBA Projection, YDP Starts in 2009Interim Surplus Guidelines - Ending in 2016, Tiered Shortage Strategy - 400 KAF, 700 KAF (Tier Starts at 1,075), Mead Minim um Elevation - 1,000 feet, Upper BasinLim ited to 4.8 MAF - AWBA Projection, YDP Starts in 2009

Recovery Planning Status:

ICUA Recovery Planning: CAWCD Recovery Well Permits ~ 20,000 af/yr Capacity

• 14 wells in MSIDD• 7 wells in CAIDD

Framework Recovery Agreements• 1992 Storage and Recovery Agreements

Firming Recovery Planning: AWBA Study (1999) & Recovery Committee B-E Study Regional Discussions & Plans

Recovery Planning Process:

Phase 1 – Existing Framework: Complete Data Collection Meet with Stakeholders Recommend Planning Priorities Draft Report - April, 2006

Recovery Planning Process:

Phase 2 –Comprehensive ’07-’08 Plan for ICUA : ‘07 – ‘08 SNWA Schedule:

• Define Delivery & Recovery Schedules• Refine Recovery Agreements• Prepare Certifications

Meet with Stakeholders Recommend Rate and Cost Schedules CAWCD Board Approvals

• November 2006 for 2007 Recovery

Recovery Planning Process:

Phase 3 – General Plans for ICUA & Firming Recovery: Complete General Plans for 2009 -

+2011 SNWA Recovery Estimate Needed Firming Capacity Draft General Firming Recovery Plans Meet with Stakeholders Establish Process for Updating Plans November 2007

QUESTIONS?