DD / MM / YY

Planning for Low Carbon Growth

and Climate Resilience in Cities

Learning Objectives

• To understand the different Approaches to Planning for climate change

• To be able to identify the merits of Mainstreaming vs Climate Change Plans

• To analyze Main steps of planning for CC

• To discuss Examples of Planning for adaptation and mitigation

Source: UNEP / GRID-Arendal, 2007

Refer for report to

http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/impacts.pdf

Mitigation Adaptation

Climate change

Mitigation Adaptation Greenhouse gas

emission

Climate change

impact

Reduce magnitude of global warming

Reduce greenhouse gas emission

Reduce vulnerability to CC impact

Reduce human and material losses

Mitigation vs Adaptation

Definitions: Mitigation

Anthropogenic interventions that can either:

• reduce the sources of greenhouse gas

(GHG) emissions (abatement) or

• enhance their sinks (sequestration).

Definitions: Adaptation

• an automatic or planned response to climate change that minimizes the adverse effects and maximizes any benefits

• an adjustment in ecological, social, or economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects

Approaches to Planning for

Climate Change

Climate Resilience

Ad-hoc approaches

Stand-alone (strategic) plans

Mainstreaming

Approaches to Planning for Climate Change

• Focus in on changing the technical specifications of buildings,

infrastructure and budgets

• Advantages:

– Goes directly to implementation without a lot of time and effort in

process

– Engages the decision-makers who are most responsible

• Examples: Changing building code to raise elevation of building;

requiring larger sewer pipes to manage expected floodwaters

Ad-hoc Approaches

Source: Kern and Alber (2008)

Source: Kern and Alber (2008)

• Collaborative process with specific CC goal

• Advantages:

• Can engage stakeholders in full process

• Can consider the inter-relations between policies more effectively

• Allows for more publicity, and maybe more follow-through because

of more political buy-in

• Good when actions will affect a broad public

• Examples: NAPAs, Climate Action Plans, Adaptation Plans, Sector

Plans

Strategic/Stand-alone Plan

Source: Huxtable and Yen (2009)

• Defined as “a process of considering climate risks to development

projects, and of adjusting project activities and approaches to address

these risks.” (Huxtable & Yen 2009)

• Policies should:

• Reduce climate risk (climate proofing)

• Increase adaptive capacity of local populations

Mainstreaming

Source: OECD (2009)

• Applying a climate lens requires investigating current policies for the

extent to which:

• a measure might be affected by climate change impacts,

• these impacts are addressed in existing planning,

• and further adaptation is required to address future climate

challenges and opportunities.

Mainstreaming: Applying a Climate Lens

Select a sector or neighborhood & apply a climate lens to it.

1. Choose one or two impacts that CC may have on the sector or

neighborhood

2. How are these impacts addressed in current regulations and plans?

3. What else could be done to allow for more effective responses to a

climate event?

Mainstreaming

Source: UN Habitat 2012

• Medium/long-term urban/municipal development and strategic plans;

• Master plans;

• Strategic land-use plans;

• Development orders;

• Strategies and plans for water, solid and sanitary waste, energy;

• Management plans for coastal zones.

Mainstreaming Opportunities

Stand-alone or Mainstream?

Stand-Alone CC Plans

• May be required by national government

• Provide logical extensions of national

plans

• Have flexible timing

• Bring together multi-sectoral team to plan

and implement

• Increase visibility of issues and attract

funding

• Provide comprehensive monitoring and

evaluation

• Can improve coordination and avoid

maladaptation

Mainstreaming

• Fits well into existing planning cycles,

budgets, and planning hierarchy

• Clear existing responsibilities for policy

implementation increases impact and

institutionalization of policy

• May be a legal requirement to integrate

CC into development, land use or other

plans

• Will ensure that CC is treated as a cross-

sectoral issue – prevents ‘CC silo.’

Source: UN Habitat 2012 p. 7

Climate Resilience

Ad-hoc approaches

Stand-alone (strategic) plans

Mainstreaming

Approaches to Planning for Climate Change Summary

Collaboration and Participation

Core Stakeholder Group

On-going, regular meetings with

• Senior local government officials

• Local authority technical staff

• Representatives of civil society

organisations

• Chamber of Commerce or other business

interests

• Scholars or experts who can advise on

the topic

Public consultation

• Periodic workshops, surveys, focus

groups, or other appropriate means to

engage a broader public in feedback on

the goals and proposals of the project.

This assures that the Core Group is

staying on track to represent a range of

interests and needs and brings in

traditional knowledge.

Source: UN Habitat 2012

Planning for climate change:

the main steps

Mitigation Adaptation

GHG emissions assessment Vulnerability assessment

Set of objectives and targets Set of objectives

Assessment and

Selection of measures

Assessment and

Selection of measures

Implement measures

Monitor and Evaluate

Implement measures

Monitor and Evaluate

Inventory of GHG emissions

• Energy use by fuel

• GHG emissions by fuel

• Energy use by sector

• GHG emissions by sector

Industrial

Residential

Commercial

Transport

Agriculture, Forestry and other Land use

Waste

Inventory of GHG emissions

• Energy

• Transport

• Industry

• Buildings

• Agriculture

• Waste management

DD / MM / YY

•Assessment of the degree to which a

system is endangered by, or unable to

cope with, the adverse effects of climate

change

• Exposure, sensitivity, adaptive

capacity

• Sectors, areas, communities

Vulnerability

Assessment

Climate effects and risks

Mitigation Adaptation

Vulnerability assessment

Set of objectives and targets Set of objectives

Assessment and

Selection of measures

Assessment and

Selection of measures

GHG emissions assessment

Implement measures

Monitor and Evaluate

Implement measures

Monitor and Evaluate

1

Set of targets

2

3

4

5

6

SCENE

7

8

• GHG emissions reduction

targets for different sectors

• GHG emissions city wide targets

Set of Targets

e.g.20% GHG emissions

reduction compared to the

baseline year

Baseline emissions

Reduction target

Target emissions

Set of Targets

Cumulative emission reductions

Emissions Reduction Portfolio

50%

Urban action could help deepen the aggregate, global

ambition of current national pledges

Source: C40, 2014

Set of targets: Cities’ initiatives

• Covenant of Mayors – at least 20% CO2

emissions reduction by 2020 (1990 base year)

• Climate Alliance – 50 % by 2030 (1990 base

year)

Set of Objectives

• Increase city’s resilience to climate change impacts (different sectors)

• Improve the adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities

Mitigation Adaptation

Vulnerability assessment

Set of objectives and targets Set of objectives

Assessment and

Selection of actions

Assessment and

Selection of actions

GHG emissions assessment

Implement measures

Monitor and Evaluate

Implement measures

Monitor and Evaluate

Climate Mitigation Options

Local Co-Benefits of Mitigation

• Reduction of local air pollution – reduction of health impacts

• Poverty alleviation

• Improvements in security and availability of power supply

• Reduce fossil fuel consumption

• Reduction road congestion - shift from private to public transport

• Increase in employment

• Strengthening of institutional, and human capacity

• Improve technological base

Adaption Measures

• Increase water conservation measures

• Strengthen dikes where appropriate

• New building codes

• Crop diversification

• Build resilient infrastructure

• Improve the use of early warning systems for extreme heat events

• Increase use of setbacks for coastal land uses

Co-benefits of Adaption Measures

• Poverty alleviation

• Improved infrastructure

• Better water management

• City greening

• Housing/building improvement

• Employment generation

Assessment of actions:

assessment methods

• Cost – Benefit Analysis

• Cost – Effectiveness Analysis

• Multi – Criteria Analysis

1 MCA Porthin, et al. (2013) Finland Developed Country Urban City (Local) Researchers Flood Management Y

2MCA

Haque, et al. (2012) Bangladesh Least Developed

Country

Urban City (Local) ResearchersFlood Management Y

3

MCA

Huntjens, et al. (2013) Vietnam Least Developed

Country

Urban/Rural Multi-level (Province,

District, Commune)

Foreign Donors River Basin

Management Y

4MCA

Lewis (2010/2011) South Africa Least Developed

Country

Urban City (Local) Local GovernmentMulti - Sectoral Y

5 MCA Kubal, et al. (2009) Germany Developed Country Urban City (Local) Researchers Flood Management Y

6

MCA

Debels, et al. (2007) Chile Least Developed

Country

Urban Disaster

Management Y

7 CBA Cartwright, et al. (2013) South Africa Urban City (Local) Local Government Multi - Sectoral Y

8 (Extended) CBA

with CEA and MCA

components

Giron, et al. (2010)\ Belgium Developed Country Urban/Rural Multi-Level Federal Government

Flood Management Y

9CBA

Bureu of Environmental

Services (2008)

U.S.A. Developed Country Urban City (Local) Local GovernmentEco-roods Y

10

CEA

ECA (2009) United Kingdom Developed Country Urban City (Local) Researchers Risk Management

(Flood, Wind, Sea

Level Rise)

11CEA

ECA (2009) U.S.A. Developed Country Urban/Rural County or State Level Researchers Risk Management

(Hurricane)

Initiator

Type of Evaluation Sectoral Coverage

Sustainability Objectives

(co-benefits)

No. Author Country Country Status Scope Governance Level

Mitigation Adaptation

GHG emissions assessment Vulnerability assessment

Set of objectives and targets Set of objectives

Assessment and

Selection of measures

Assessment and

Selection of measures

Implement measures

Monitor and Evaluate

Implement measures

Monitor and Evaluate

Key issues

41

Once we know what climate change actions are needed

– how do we ensure local government action?

Who is responsible for action?

What are the timelines?

What are the budgets?

Source: UN Habitat 212 p. 7

Barriers to implementation of CC measures

Climate change is most likely to exacerbate these immediate

development stressors.

Other barriers and challenges to adaptation and mitigation include:

Insufficient human and capital resources to dedicate to climate

change issues;

The inability to adapt technologically;

Political and administrative processes that do not include climate

change considerations; and

Lack of people driving the process.

Planning cannot afford to ignore the warning signals of climate

change projections.

Barriers to implementation of CC measures

Urban planning in much of the developing world has not yet played a conscious

role in reducing vulnerability to climate change, though this is changing.

Planning decisions may even contribute to risk and vulnerability.

Discussions around climate change often remain high-level and lack practical

guidance on how to reduce exposure and increase resilience.

Long-term impacts of climate change are also not priority given the immediate

demands on planning.

The uncertainty of climate change makes it difficult to reconcile with immediate

priorities.

Overcoming barriers to

implementation of CC

measures

• Leadership (political or grass-roots)

• Resources (money and staff time)

• Communication and information

• Values and Beliefs

Moser and Ekstrom 2010 Photo from Conservation through Public Health.org

Mitigation Adaptation

Vulnerability assessment

Set of targets Set of objectives

Assessment and

Selection of measures

Assessment and

Selection of measures

GHG emissions assessment

Implement measures

Monitor and Evaluate

Implement measures

Monitor and Evaluate

Monitor and Evaluation

• Monitor situation after adoption of

measures and actions

• Evaluate the level and extent of achieving

targets - objectives

Reassess and adjust

actions/measures

Adjustment is taking place wherever is

deemed necessary

Integrating Climate actions and objectives into Urban

Planning

GHG emissions assessment

Mitigation Adaptation

Vulnerability assessment

Set of Targets Set of Objectives

Assessment and

Selection of measures

Assessment and

Selection of measures

Situation Analysis

Monitor and Evaluate

Set Goals and Objectives

Define and Implement

Actions

Implement measures

Monitor and Evaluate

Implement measures

Monitor and Evaluate

Combined CCA & CCM Process

Source: Adapted from UN Habitat 2012

Mainstreaming/implementing plan recommendations

Participatory strategic planning for climate change

Stakeholder Consultation

Local contributions to climate change

Local climate forecasts (scenarios)

Assessing vulnerable people, places and sectors

Partic

ipato

ry m

onito

ring a

nd e

valu

atio

n

Examples

CHICAGO(USA)

Population:

City: 2,842,518

Urban agglomeration: 8,990,000

www.chicagoclimateaction.org

1) Energy Efficient Buildings, 8 actions

2) Clean and Renewable Energy Sources, 5 actions

3) Improved Transportation Options, 10 actions

4) Reduced Waste and Industrial Pollution, 3 actions

5) Adaptation, 9 actions

35 ways to

ensure a

resilient city

54

Example 1: Chicago

55

Pro-poor integrated approach

Focus on co-benefits

(reduce energy use in buildings):

Reduced energy cost

Jobs

Improved air quality and health

Water conserved

Quality of Life

Adaptation

Example 2: Mexico

56

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options

Energy Actions (5)

Water Actions (7)

Transportation Actions (10)

Waste Actions (4)

Climate Change Adaptation Actions

Short term (6)

Medium and long term (6)

Climate Change Communication and Educational Actions

Example 2: Mexico

57

Questions?s.grafakos@ihs.nl

Sources• OECD, (2010) Cities and Climate Change, OECD Publishing (Executive Summary only,

pages 17 - 28) Available at: http://www.citiesalliance.org/sites/citiesalliance.org/files/0410081e.pdf

• Recommended reading:

• UN Habitat, 2014, Planning for Climate change. Available at: http://www.unhabitat.org/pmss/listItemDetails.aspx?publicationID=3530

• Carmin, J. et al (2013), Urban Climate Adaptation in the Global South: Planning in an Emerging Policy Domain, Journal of Planning Education and Research, 32(1) 18 –32

• Füssel, H.M. (2007). “Adaptation planning for climate change: concepts, assessment approaches, and key lessons.” Sustainability Science, 2: 265-275

• UN Habitat (2014), Planning for climate change: A strategic, values based approach for urban planners

• Cities and Climate Change, GLOBAL REPORT ON HUMAN SETTLEMENTS, (2011), United Nations Human Settlements Programme

• Wilson and Piper, (2010),Spatial Planning and Climate Change, Routledge, London and New York

• http://www.c40cities.org/ccap/

Group Exercise:

Review Local Climate Change (CC) Plans

• Focus on adaptation vs mitigation?

• Reference to VA or GHG emissions city´s profile?

• Are there are any CC targets?

• Are other sustainability goals and co-benefits taken into account?

• Budget allocated? Funding?

• Who are the key stakeholders in planning for climate change

adaptation and mitigation

• How has their participation been facilitated?

Selected Cities

• Chicago

• Durban

• Mexico City

• Toronto

• Paris

• Quito

Group Assignment

1) Review the Local Climate Change Plans

2) Prepare a 10 minutes (+5 min Q&A) presentationaddressing the 7 aforementioned questions

3) Actual Presentations and Discussion in plenary(16th of January at 15:30)