curbing greenhouse gas emissions will reduce future california bird loss

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Climate change will cause up to 110 o 310 Caliornia native bird species to disappear rom at least 25 percent o their current ranges by the end o the 21st Century. While many o these range contractions will be unavoidable, our ability to reduce green- house gas emissions and tailor conservation to these predictions could greatly reduce these impacts or some species and regions. Climate change is already pushing species globally poleward and higher in elevation 1 . In Caliornia, directional changes in climate during the 20th century were substantial 2,3 . Throughout this period, and in the centuries beore, Caliornia also experienced cyclical changes as a result o a weather pattern known as the Pacic Decadal Oscillation 4 . Hence, bird species in Caliornia have managed to survive various orms o past climate change, oten by shiting their distributions around the state. But will they be able to continue to respond to uture changes o a much larger magnitude 5 ? Two actors argue that they will not. The rst is that our current network o pro- tected lands was not designed to buer species, communities, and whole ecosystems against large-scale processes like climate change 6 . The second is that the major climate variables infuencing species’ distributions are expected to change so quickly that even highly mobile species like birds will be unable to keep pace 7 . Hence, uture climate change threatens Caliornia’s birds with massive range reductions and, in extreme cases, statewide extirpations and global extinctions. This policy brie examines avian responses to uture climate change in Caliornia based on bird distribution data rom the Audubon Christmas Bird Count and North America Breeding Bird Survey, as well as climate orecasts originating rom the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 8 . It also describes how dierent strategies or mitigating climate change will infuence the magnitude o uture bird loss. The brie concludes with public policy recommen- dations intended to promote bird conservation in a changing climate. Curbing greenhouse gas emissions will reduce future California bird loss William B. Monahan and Gary Langham Conservation Science P olicy Brief www.ca.audubon.org T Wst T aa cl ls as c as 30 pct f ts ct a, as lttl as 6.5 pct, p w wll clat ca s ass t xt sval cas. Pt Als S. FebruAry 2009

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