phoenix economy and demographics

Diving into Phoenix’s economy and

demographics

Employment, output, housing, demographics and commuting patterns April 2014

Economy

Phoenix’s year-on-year growth is stable, but slower than in

previous cycles

-200.0

-150.0

-100.0

-50.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

Tot

al n

on-f

arm

12-

mon

th n

et c

hang

e (t

hous

ands

)

2

Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Compared to the national average, Phoenix sees stronger peaks

and deeper troughs

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Tot

al n

on-f

arm

12-

mon

th %

cha

nge

Phoenix United States

3


Even so, Phoenix’s average growth rate is 2.5x faster than that of

the United States overall

4


+3.7% 1975-present

average y-o-y

growth in Phoenix

+1.5% 1975-present

average y-o-y

growth across U.S.

Despite faster percentage gains than the rest of the country

recently, year-on-year growth slower than before the recession

5

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-200.0

-150.0

-100.0

-50.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

12-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tot

al n

on-f

arm

, tho

usan

ds)

12-month net change Unemployment rate


+105,200 +97,500 +30,900 -47,600 -147,500 -32,000 +26,300 +43,300 +50,200

Average 12-month net change

Additionally, Phoenix’s unemployment rate has rarely exceeded

that of the United States overall

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)


6

Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. current as of March 2014)

Phoenix

average:

5.3%

Phoenix

current:

6.5%

U.S.

average:

6.5%

U.S.

current:

6.7%

62.4% percentage of lost

jobs recovered in

Phoenix

Phoenix’s deep recession means that fewer than two-thirds of lost

jobs have been recovered, while the U.S. is approaching peak

7

Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. current as of March 2014)

95.0% percentage of los

jobs recovered

across the U.S.

Nearly 3 in 4 Phoenix residents work in government, PBS, retail

trade, health care, leisure or financial activities

8


375.2

305.4

211.9

202.7

184.9

164.2

93.2

88.8

83.5

80.3 64.2

86.2 Government

Professional and business services

Retail trade

Health care and social assistance

Leisure and hospitality

Financial activities

Construction

Durable goods

Wholesale trade

Other services

Transportation and utilities

All other subsectors

$52,620 $52,580 $51,890

$49,830

$48,270 $47,900 $47,100 $46,820 $46,800

$45,680

$43,120 $42,380 $42,320

$39,400

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

$55,000

Ann

ual m

ean

wag

e Phoenix has the lowest annual mean wage of any Sunbelt metro

area outside of Florida, advantageous for employers

9

Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis

The average American

makes $46,440 per year. i

$128,259

$134,084

$142,985

$152,071

$168,570

$186,572

$195,749 $196,335

$183,523 $185,691

$192,321

$201,653

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

GD

P (

$ m

illio

ns)

For the first time, Phoenix’s GDP surpassed $200 billion, having

grown by 56.4 percent since 2001

10


+56.4% 2001-2012 GDP

growth in

Phoenix

This is in line with the national growth rate of 53.4 percent

during the same period

11

+53.4% 2001-2012 GDP

growth across the

United States


More than $1 of every $4 generated in Phoenix is related to

financial activities

Financial activities Professional and business services Government

Education and health services Manufacturing Retail trade

Wholesale trade Construction Leisure and hospitality

Transportation and warehousing Information Utilities

Other services Mining Agriculture

12

Subsector GDP

($ millions)

Financial activities $52,285

PBS $24,619

Government $18,951

Education and health services $18,271

Manufacturing $16,766

Retail trade $14,906

Wholesale trade $12,869

Construction $10,356

Leisure and hospitality $9,056

Transportation and warehousing $6,165

Information $5,790

Utilities $4,642

Other services $4,201

Mining $1,917

Agriculture $860


65,259

62,617

44,280

37,272

18,533

9,272 8,300 9,081

15,967

18,737

3,737 5,810

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD 2013YTD 2014

Aut

horiz

ed h

ousi

ng s

tart

s While slowly growing, the number of new housing starts remains

well below average due rapid spec growth before the recession

13

Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau

Phoenix had the 7th-most investment in new housing starts in

2013 at $3.8 billion

14


Market Valuation of 2013

authorized starts

Houston $7,390,478,000

Dallas $6,883,246,000

New York $5,407,616,000

Los Angeles $5,327,800,000

Bay Area $4,872,872,000

Seattle $3,951,359,000

Phoenix $3,814,266,000

Atlanta $3,713,937,000

Washington, DC $3,572,036,000

Miami $3,210,511,000

Above markets $48,144,121,000

Rest of U.S. $128,660,688,000

2

3

4

6

7 8

9 5

10

1

After spiking and falling in the late 2000s, home prices are on the

rise, but well below their previous peak

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

Cas

e-S

hille

r In

dex

15

Source: JLL Research, Moody’s

Home prices are

36.6 below their

previous peak

Demographics

The Phoenix metro area’s population has grown by nearly 500.0

percent since 1960 and currently rests at 4.3 million

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013

Pop

ulat

ion

17

4,329,534 Phoenix metro area

population in 2013

726,183 Phoenix metro area

population in 1960

392,742 384,699

313,627

263,615 263,556

236,214 230,704

205,875 198,463

170,296

131,897

110,287

76,184 69,335

-1,267

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2010

-201

3 po

pula

tion

grow

th

In absolute terms, 2010-2013 growth totaled 205,875 people,

roughly average among major markets…

18


…and this represented growth 2.2x faster than the United States

as a whole

19


+4.9% 2010-2013

population growth

in Phoenix

+2.2% 2010-2013

population growth

across the U.S.

6.6% 6.3% 6.3%

6.1% 6.0%

5.6% 5.3%

5.0% 4.9% 4.7%

4.5% 4.2%

4.0% 3.8%

3.3% 3.1% 3.1%

2.9% 2.8%

2.3% 2.2% 2.0%

1.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8%

0.2% 0.0%

-0.6% -1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

2010

-201

3 po

pula

tion

grow

th

Because Phoenix’s metropolitan area is 4.4 million people, its

rate of growth is faster and was ninth from 2010 to 2013

20


Who is the average Phoenician?

21

My house

cost me

$174,100.

We make the

median

household

income of

$47,866.

I’m one of the

56.8 percent of

people who

own a home.

I’m one of the

2.8 people in my

household.


Despite the

traffic, it takes

me 24.4 minutes

to get to work.

25.9 percent

of us have a

bachelor’s

degree.

41,198

people have

moved here

since 2010.

How does Phoenix compare to the U.S. overall in certain

demographic categories?

22


Median household income % with bachelor’s degree Household size Commute time

$47,886 Phoenix

$53,046 United States

25.9% Phoenix

28.5% United States

2.8 people Phoenix

2.6 people United States

24.4 min Phoenix

25.4 min United States

8.2% 7.6% 7.3%

6.6% 6.5%

8.1% 7.7% 7.1% 7.0% 6.8%

6.0% 5.0% 4.7%

3.3% 2.6% 2.3%

1.7% 1.4%

-6.3% -6.5% -6.6% -6.9% -7.2% -6.8% -6.6% -6.2% -6.7% -6.9% -7.2%

-6.6% -5.7%

-4.4%

-3.2% -2.4%

-1.9% -1.9%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

0-5years

5-9years

10-14years

15-19years

20-24years

25-29years

30-34years

35-39years

40-44years

45-49years

50-54years

55-59years

60-64years

65-69years

70-74years

75-79years

80-84years

85+years

Sha

re o

f pop

ulat

ion


Phoenix’s age distribution is younger than the national average,

with 3 in 5 residents under the age of 40

23


PHX 0-19:

29.7% U.S. 0-19:

26.3%

PHX 20-39:

29.4%

PHX 40-64:

29.5%

PHX 65+:

11.3%

U.S. 20-39:

26.8%

U.S. 40-64:

33.1%

U.S. 40-64:

13.8%

Commuting patterns

ZIP code Area Share of

employees

85308 Arrowhead Ranch 2.2%

85041 South Mountain 1.9%

85338 Goodyear 1.7%

85345 Peoria 1.5%

85032 Glendale 1.5%

85339 Laveen Village 1.4%

85392 Avondale 1.4%

85326 Buckeye 1.4%

85022 Lookout Mountain 1.4%

85254 Paradise Valley 1.3%

85379 Surprise 1.3%

85044 Ahwatukee 1.3%

85018 Camelback East 1.3%



All other areas - 77.9%

Downtown Phoenix commuters come in part from outer western

and northern suburbs

25


1

2

3

4 5

7

9 10

8

6

11

12

13

14

15


employees


85032 Glendale 1.7%





85013 Midtown 1.5%

85339 Laveen Village 1.5%


85345 Peoria 1.4%

85225 Chandler 1.4%

85020 North Mountain 1.4%


85015 Alhambra 1.3%



Midtown features a similar pattern, but with a slightly greater

emphasis on inner-suburban employee origins

26


1

2

6

8 4

10

11

12

13

9 3 14 7

15

5


employees

85032 Glendale 2.4%






85260 Scottsdale Airpark 1.5%

85255 North Scottsdale 1.4%

85027 Deer Valley 1.4%


85251 D’town Scottsdale 1.3%

85086 Desert Hills (off-map) 1.2%

85050 Desert View 1.2%

85383 Peoria 1.2%



Similarly, a significant number of Camelback Corridor

employees live in the northern suburban areas of Phoenix as well

27


1

2

3 8

7 6

9

10

5 11

13 14

15 4


employees

85282 Tempe 5.5%

85281 Tempe 5.4%

85283 Tempe 3.6%

85226 Chandler 2.5%


85225 Chandler 2.1%

85224 Chandler 2.0%

85284 Tempe 2.0%

85202 Mesa 1.8%


85286 Chandler 1.7%

85201 Mesa 1.6%

85234 Gilbert 1.6%

85233 Gilbert 1.6%

85296 Gilbert 1.4%


Tempe employees are far more localized, with around two-thirds

coming from the immediate south and east of the area

28


4

5

6

8

10 7

3

1

11

12

13 9

2

14

15


employees


85260 Scottsdale Airpark 4.4%


85255 North Scottsdale 2.7%



85050 Desert View 1.7%

85251 D’town Scottsdale 1.6%

85259 East Scottsdale 1.6%


85331 Cave Creek 1.5%


85086 Desert Hills (off-map) 1.4%

85258 McCormick Ranch 1.4%

85281 Tempe 1.1%


Scottsdale Airpark’s largest commuter origins are concentrated in

the northern and northeastern suburbs of the region

29


2

4

1 5

6 7

9

10 11

3

12

14

15

8

phoenix economy and demographics

Documents

jll research

phoenix average

bureau of labor statistics

phoenix current

phoenixs average growth

phoenixs year

change phoenix united

y growth