Phase II Gather Data

– Coastal Shipping Data: PORT MIS– Import and Export O/D in Korea: Survey– Customs Agency Data

Build Model– Model I: Minimize Total Logistics Cost– Model II: Find Where SSS can be more competitive

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Phase II

Gather Data– Coastal Shipping Data: PORT MIS– Import / Export O/D in Korea: Survey– Customs Agency Data: Shipmentwise OD data

2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011

Phase II

Coastal Shipping Data: PORT MIS

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Inha University

Coastal Shipping in Korea

•There are 28 Foreign Trade Ports and 23 Coastal Port

•Foreign Trade Ports are evenly developed along West, South and East Coast

• Coastal Ports are concentrated

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Inha University

Major Cargoes by coastal shipping

Major cargo of coastal shipping(1980- 2002)

93.2

35.3

22

138 7.9

2.4 1.8

9.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1Cargo

Per

cent

Cumulative percent ofmajor cargoNatural sands

P roduct of Petroleum Oils

Cement

Iron steel

Iron ores

Crude oil

Chemical

Others

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Inha University

Major coastal port

Port Handling percent Cumulative percent

Incheon 54,909 19.8

Gwangyang 29,689 10.7 30.5

Ulsan 21.434 7.8 38.3

Busan 15,417 5.6 43.9

Pohang 13,215 4.8 48.7

Donghae 10,805 3.9 52.6

Daesan 7,722 2.8 55.4

Masan 6,923 2.5 57.9

Mokpo 6,652 2.4 60.3

Gunsan 5,169 1.9 62.2

Jeju 2,519 0.9 63.1

Yeosu 2,225 0.8 63.9

Others 100,137 36.2

Total 276,816 100

In thousand R/T

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Inha University

Coastal shipping by ship type

  Total Tanker General CargoSand

carrierCement carrier Container Steel product

Wastecarrier

Tug

No. of companies 927 226 311 347 6 2 9 26 -

No. of ships 2,131 328 420 634 25 7 50 50 617

Ship Tonnage(1,000 G/T)

1,530 468 324 362 129 20 108 70 49

Coastal Shipping by Ship Type (Dec. 31, 2003)

Notes: 752 barges having 482,000 G/T were classified into respective ship type group. Sand carrier group included 433 barges (155,000 G/T) owned by 191 companies used for carrying construction materials within the boundary of port authorities.

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Inha University

Number of Coastal Shipping Companies by Number or Size

Total One ship Two ships Three Four FiveSix and

over

927 430 245 94 63 25 70

Total 50 50～ 100 100～

200200～

300300～

500500～ 1,000 Over 1,000

927 282 204 177 46 53 43 122

Number of Coastal Shipping Companies by Number of Owning Ships

Number of Coastal Shipping Companies by Size of Capital Asset

(Unit: Million Won, No. of companies)

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Inha University

Port MIS - Diagram

Port- MIS

Yeosu Incheon Busan

Incheon Pyungtaek Daesan Boryeong Janghang Gunsan

PCPC

Regional

DB

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Inha University

OD Analysis Process (Summary)

Item Remark

Analysis Period 1997 ~ Sept 2004*

Analysis Ports 37 ports

Analysis Cargoes

Iron steel, Cement, Iron ore, Sand, Oil product, Container, General cargo, Waste material

OD Analysis Details

Flow Chart for OD Analysis Process

Acquisition of raw data

Extraction and classification of data for analysis

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Inha University

Forecast of Major Research Results:- Freight Flow Diagram by Coastal Cargo Type -

Box Size: Cargo Volume by port (volume handled)Line thickness: Cargo volume between ports

Incheon(Capacity)

Busan(Capacity)

Pyeogtaek(Capacity)

Ulsan(Capacity)

Pohang(Capacity)

Donghae(Capacity)

Daesan(Capacity)

Masan(Capacity)

Mokpo(Capacity)

Gunsan(Capacity)

Jeju(Capacity)

Yeosu(Capacity)

Other

Other

Other

Other

Other

Other

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Inha University

Definition of Coastal Shipping Cargo

Origin-Destination Freight Flow Matrices– Q: total transportation volume of coastal shipping during a specific year

– Qj: total input flow volume of coastal shipping into port j

– fij: total volume of freight flow from port i to j

–

Origin

Destination

Port APort B

Port X

A B X

kijf : k type product freight flow

from port i to port j.

i

ijj fQ

K

k

kijij ff

1

O-D FreightFlow Matrix

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Inha University

Analysis Results of Major Coastal Cargo using Port MIS

Major cargo of coastal shipping(1980- 2002)

93.2

35.3

22

138 7.9

2.4 1.8

9.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1Cargo

Perc

ent

Cumulative percent ofmajor cargoNatural sands

P roduct of P etroleum Oils

Cement

Iron steel

Iron ores

Crude oil

Chemical

Others

Top 7 Major Cargoes accounting for 93.2 of the total coastal cargo:

Necessity to analyze major shippers

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OD Analysis Results by Cargo Type

Actual and Forecast Data of Total Freight Volume by Cargo (unit: ton/TEU)Actual data soruce: MOMAF. 2004 Statistical Yearbook of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries)

Freight(ton)total Full container total

1997 144,574 7,537 18,852 42,630 42,042 9,363 24,149 178 - 1,619 21,521 1,0091998 113,129 8,807 15,322 30,997 30,927 8,710 18,366 310 - 2,112 14,780 1,4751999 121,424 9,804 14,881 31,802 31,367 9,738 23,833 295 - 1,489 20,520 1,8232000 131,990 10,272 15,665 33,513 37,399 10,078 25,063 274 117 1,262 21,354 2,4472001 137,731 11,695 16,985 32,942 43,772 11,209 21,128 289 118 1,446 16,347 3,3352002 138,478 11,159 18,057 30,438 48,783 10,863 19,179 329 106 2,906 12,345 3,9282003 141,794 12,040 18,961 32,279 47,647 10,655 20,211 405 98 2,534 13,723 3,9542004 114,794 10,959 16,678 32,293 20,690 10,600 23,574 375 94 2,317 12,708 3,888

Oil products2) WasteMaterial7)

Containers5)Other4)

General cargo6)

TEUothersOre3)SandCementSteel1)Totalyear

Total Coastal Cargo Volume by Cargo in Korea(unit: 1,000 ton)

Total cargo volume of 8 cargoes (iron steel, cement, oil product, sand, iron ore, container, general cargo, and waste material) from 1997 to 2004: 1.043 billion tons, with 5.1 % of annual growth rate.

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OD Analysis Results by Cargo Type - Ore

2004 Destination (Destination)-Entry

Origin-Departure

Ratio Gwangyang Pohang Incheon Yeosu Samcheonpo Samcheok Other ports

Donghae Port 44.52% 28.45% 15.99% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%0.08

%

Pohang Port 14.52% 8.82% 2.27% 0.00% 0.01% 1.30% 0.00%2.11

%

Gwangyang Port 10.18% 0.00% 0.18% 5.72% 0.00% 0.73% 2.02%1.53

%

Samcheonpo 5.66% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.70% 0.02% 0.02%0.91

%

Mukho Port 3.52% 0.00% 3.48% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.00%0.00

%

Other ports 21.61% 7.29% 7.95% 0.00% 0.00% 0.44% 0.00%5.94

%

Ratio   44.55% 29.87% 5.72% 4.72% 2.53% 2.04%10.57

%

Major Ore production

area in Korea

Major coastal ports (Ore

consumption area)

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Cargo Volume Trend by Cargo Type (1997~2003) (basis of Total Volume)

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

1) Iron Ore

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

2) Cement

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Cargo Volume Trend by Cargo Type (1997~2003) (basis of Total Volume)

19,000,000

20,000,000

21,000,000

22,000,000

23,000,000

24,000,000

25,000,000

26,000,000

27,000,000

28,000,000

29,000,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

3) Oil and Bituminous Oil Product

4) Crude oil

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

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Cargo Volume Trend by Cargo Type (1997~2003) (basis of Total Volume)

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

5) Natural sand

6) Iron steel and its product

9,000,000

10,000,000

11,000,000

12,000,000

13,000,000

14,000,000

15,000,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

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Cargo Volume Trend by Cargo Type (1997~2003) (basis of Total Volume)

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

6,000,000

6,500,000

7,000,000

7,500,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

7) Chemical product

8) Other product

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

11,000,000

12,000,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

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Freight Flow Forecast Model - Building time series analysis model using multi-linear regression analysis and moving average method - Dependent variables: GDP, total value added of manufacturing/construction industries, index of factory operating ratioOD forecast for measuring total shipping fleet - ratio of freight flow between Origin and Destination by cargo for 2004 (or cumulative freight flow in the period of 1997-2004) - Total freight flow forecast X ratio of freight flow between Origin and Destination

OD Analysis

PORT-MISActual Data

Annual Statistics

Data

OtherData

Time Series

Analysis

ODData

Freight Flow

ForecastData

Data of Freight Flow

Forecast between Origin &

Destination

Freight Flow Forecast Process by Cargo (Summary)

2006/TPT-WG-28/IEG/011