PHN TCH BO CO TI CHNH

1PHN TCH BO CO TI CHNHPHN TCH BO CO TI CHNHPHN TCH BO CO TI CHNHCNG TY CP SAVIT NAM - VINAMILK

NI DUNGGII THIU S LC V CNG TYPHN TCH BO CO TI CHNHPHN TCH C CUPHN TCH CC T S TI CHNHPHN TCH DUPONTTNG KT2

3

45

6

7

8

9

10MC TIU N NM 20173 T USD DOANH THUtop50 CTY SX SA TH GIIQUY M CNG TY TRN TH TRNG V MC TIU CNG TY N NM 2017

ii. PHN TCH BO CO TI CHNHBNG CN I K TON11VT: Triu ng

ii. PHN TCH BO CO TI CHNHBNG BNG BO CO KQKD12VT: Triu ng

2. PHN TCH C CU(BNG BIU C CU TRONG BNG CN I K TON)13

1. PHN TCH C CU1.1. C CU TI SN V NGUN VN CA VINAMILK14C cu ti sn v ngun vn n nh, t bin i. c bit, c cu ngun vn vng chn vi vn ch s hu lun chim t 77% n 80%, l c s vng chc cng ty cng ty thc hin chin lc pht trin di hn ca mnh.

1. PHN TCH C CU1.2. C CU TI SN NGN HN CA VINAMILK15- Tin mt -> Gi NH c k hn => Tng hiu qu, vn m tnh thanh khon- Cc KPThu gim => kim sot phn vn b chim dng tt hn- Cc tn kho n nh, mc dng ang m rng KD => Khai thc ti sn tt

1. PHN TCH C CU1.3. C CU TI SN DI HN CA VINAMILK16Ti sn c nh tng ln 94% => Cty sn xut, tp trung ngun vn vo vic m rng qui m sn xut, m rng hot ng kinh doanh

1. PHN TCH C CU1.4. C CU N CA VINAMILK17Cng ty c c cu n rt vng chc (t l n trn tng ngun vn l 22% l t l rt an ton trong kinh doanh) m bo tnh thanh khon rt tt, to c nim tin cho cc ch n (nh cung cp, nh phn phi, ngn hng,). Tuy nhin, n cng th hin cng ty rt thn trng v cha dm s dng n by n tng hiu qu kinh doanh, cng nh cha dng cng c li vay gim gnh nng v thu.

1. PHN TCH C CU1.5. C CU TRONG BNG KQKD18Nhn vo c cu trong bo co kt qu kinh doanh, ta thy cng ty cn v ang kim sot rt tt cc thnh phn then cht: gi vn hng bn (chim 67%) v chi ph bn hng (chim 6%) to nn li nhun rng trc th cao (chim 24%). Tuy nhin cng ty vn cha s dng li vay gim gnh nng v thu TNDN.

2. PHN TCH CC t S TI CHNH C BN2.1. T s thanh khon19 Ti sn ngn hn T S THANH TON NGN HN = ------------------------- N ngn hn Tin mt + CK ngn hn + P.Thu ngn hnT S THANH TON NHANH = -------------------------------------------------------- N ngn hn Tin mt + CK ngn hnT S THANH TON TC THI = ------------------------------------ N ngn hn

2. PHN TCH CC t S TI CHNH C BN2.1. T s thanh khon (tt)20Kh nng thanh ton ca cng ty Vinamilk lun c m bo, v tt hn nhiu so vi trung bnh nhm ngnh. To c li th ln trong vic huy ng vn cho hot ng kinh doanh, cng nh tng uy tn i vi cc nh cung cp.2. PHN TCH CC t S TI CHNH C BN2.2. T S HIU QU S DNG TI SN21 Doanh thu thunVNG QUAY TNG TI SN = ------------------------------- Tng ti sn bnh qun Gi vn hng bnVNG QUAY HNG TN KHO = ------------------------------- Hng tn kho bnh qun Doanh thu bn hngVNG QUAY CC KHON PHI THU = ----------------------------------- Khon phi thu bnh qun G.vn h.bn + TK cui k - TK u kVNG QUAY CC KHON PHI TR = ---------------------------------------------------- Khon phi tr bnh qun2. PHN TCH CC t S TI CHNH C BN2.2. T S HIU QU S DNG TI SN (tt)22Vng quay cc khon phi thu kh tt v ln vng quay cc khon phi tr => Cng ty ang chim dng vn ca ngi bn ln hn l b khch hng chim dng vi. ng ngha vi vic kh nng thanh ton ngn hn ca cng ty tt, thu c tin ca khch hng trc khi phi tr tin cho nh cung cp. Cng ty m bo c tin cho sn xut v tin tr ngi bn. Tuy nhin, cng ty nn gim thi gian lu kho nhm gim chi ph lu kho cng nh gim lng sn phm hng.

2. PHN TCH CC t S TI CHNH C BN2.3. T S QUN L N V N BY TI CHNH23 Li trc th v li vay (EBIT)H S THANH TON LI VAY = ------------------------------------------ Li vay Tng ti snH S N BY = ------------------------------------------ Vn ch s hu N phi trH S N = ------------------------------------------ Vn ch s hu

2. PHN TCH CC t S TI CHNH C BN2.3. T S QUN L N V N BY TI CHNH (TT)24Kh nng thanh ton li vai v n phi tr ca cng ty l rt cao. V cng ty hot ng theo chin lc thn trng v hn ch cc ri ro ti chnh nn h s s dng n by ti chnh ca cng ty l kh thp lm gim hiu qu s dng ngun vn, cng nh cha tn dng c gim thu tng li nhun sau th.

2. PHN TCH CC t S TI CHNH C BN2.4. T S Li Nhun25 Li trc th v li vay (EBIT)H S ROS = ------------------------------------------ Doanh thu thun Li trc th v li vay (EBIT)H S ROA = ------------------------------------------ Tng ti sn Li nhun rngH S ROE = ------------------------------------------ Vn ch s hu bnh qun

2. PHN TCH CC t S TI CHNH C BN2.4. T S Li Nhun (TT)26Nm 2012 l nm kh khn chung cho nn kinh t v nghnh sn xut, dn n nhiu cng ty trong ngnh b thua l. Trong bi cnh kh khn , cng ty Vinamilk vn t c mc li nhun n tng v tng cao hn c nm 2011. t c mc li nhun cao, cng ty Vinamilk tng nhanh doanh thu thun 22,81%, cng vi vic kim sot tt cc chi ph (chi ph u vo trong sn xut, chi ph qun l, chi ph li vay,) gp phn gi cho ROA & ROE tng ln mc rt cao v n nh (39,33% v 41,61%).

2. PHN TCH CC t S TI CHNH C BN2.5. T S GI TR TH TRNG (31/12/2012)27 Th gi c phnH S P/B = ------------------------------------------ Th gi c phn Th gi c phnH S P/E = ----------------------------------------- EPS

2. PHN TCH CC t S TI CHNH C BN2.5. T S GI TR TH TRNG (31/12/2012)28Nm 2012 l nm khng c my khi sc vi th trng chng khon, a s gi tr c phiu ca cc cng ty b gim (mt s b gim rt su), gy nh hng rt ln ln nim tin ca cc nh u t. Trong bi cnh , Vinamilk vi kt qu kinh doanh kh quan, lun tng trng vi tt rt tt to c nim tin t nh u t th hin qua t s P/B khng nhng khng gim m cn tng t (3.88 trong nm 2011 ln 4.73 trong nm 2012). Song song vi , vi h s P/E vn cn thy so vi ngnh (12.61 so vi 21.74), th c phiu Vinamilk s nhn c s quan tm rt ln t nh u t. C th gi c phiu ca Vinamilk tng t 88,000/cp vo ngy 31/12/2012 ln 115,000/cp vo ngy 29/03/2013.

3. PHN TCH DUPONT3.1. cng thc dupont29

3. PHN TCH DUPONT3.2. BNG PHN TCH DUPONT VINAMILK30

3. PHN TCH DUPONT3.3. biu PHN TCH DUPONT VINAMILK31

3. PHN TCH DUPONT3.4. Mt s nhn nh32Nhn vo biu trn ta thy tng tnh hiu qu ROE, cng ty thng tp vo vic tng tnh hiu qu ca vic s dng ti sn to doanh thu (Vng quay ti sn) v li nhun rng bin (t sut li nhun trn doanh thu). ng thi duy tr vic s dng h s n by mc an ton (t 1,26 n 1,32) v hu nh rt t s dng vn vay vi h s gnh nng li vay rt an ton (t 98.06% n 99,96%). T vic ch trng n tnh an ton cao, cng ty y gnh nng v thu tng lin tc (t 90,27% xung cn 83,98%). Trong nm 2012, vng quay ti sn gim mnh t 1,64 xung 1,51, ng thi h s n by cng gim t 1,29 xung 1,26. Nhng nh vic kim sot cc chi ph nn li nhun rng bin tng t 23,09% ln 26,10% v vic gip gi c ROE tng nh t 41,27% ln 41,61%.V vy, gi c tng ROE, cng ty Vinamilk cn tip tc gi c vic kim sot tt chi ph nhm tng li nhun rng bin, ng thi cn khai thc hiu qu hn ti sn hin c (tng vng quay ti sn ln). Ngoi ra, vi ROA ang ang mc cao (39,33%) cng ty Vinamilk c th ngh n gii php vay thm n gia tng n by ti chnh nhm gim nh gnh nng thu ng thi tng ROE cho cng ty

III. Tng kt1. nh t vn & qun l doanh nghip33 Tip tc kim sot tt cc chi ph then cht (gi vn hng ha & chi ph bn hng): u t cng ngh => NXL tng, tip tc nng cao o to nng lc ng qun lTip tc gi vng quay khon phi thu cao hn vng quay khon phi tr => ch ng trong vic kim sot tin mt, tng tnh thanh khon.Cn Kim sot vng quay hng tn kho tt hn => gim chi ph, gim h hng hng haC th s dng h s n cao hn tng hiu qu kinh doanh, s dng cng c li vay nhiu hn gim gnh nng v th

III. Tng kt2. nh cung cp, ngn hng cho vay34T l n/ vn ch s hu ca cng ty lun mc rt an ton (27%)C 3 h s kh nng thanh ton u mc cao v > 1H s kh nng thanh ton li vay cc cao (1.869 ln)C cu tin mt v T ngn hn chim t trng rt cao (ch yu l gi NH c k hn).

=> C th yn tm v kh nng thanh ton, tr n v tr li vay ca cng ty

III. Tng kt3. nh u t35Cc ch s v li nhun (ROS 26%, ROA 39% v ROE 42%) ca cng ty lun mc cao v lun cao hn ngnh.Trong khi cc ch s P/B (4,73 ln so vi 5,00 ln) v P/E (12,61 ln so 21,74 ln) li thp hn ch s ngnh.Cng vi c cu ti sn & ngun vn c tnh bn vng cao.=> NT c th u t di hn hoc u t theo kiu lt sng iu tt (th gi c phiu VNM tng mnh t 88,000/cp (31/12/12) ln 115,000/cp (29/03/13)

THANK YOU !36