1

Perspectives on 10-Year Planning for the Fusion Energy Sciences Program

Presented to Public Meeting of the 2014 FESAC Strategic Planning Subpanel

Gaithersburg, MD June 3, 2014

Dylan Brennan, University Fusion AssociationPhil Ferguson, ORNLRaymond Fonck, Univ of WisconsinMiklos Porkolab, MITStewart Prager, PPPLNed Sauthoff, US ITERTony Taylor, GAMark Haynes, group administrator/facilitator

(in consultation with sub-groups at each institution)

2

Over past year, an informal group of program managers, spanning most major areas of the fusion program, has been drafting a ten-year perspective on the FES program

• This presents the views of the authors, developed with input from their subgroups• Useful for input to likely FESAC panel(s)….

Issues for fusion and plasma sciences described by previous reports • National Academies Physics 2010: Plasma Science report (2007)• FESAC Gaps and Opportunities Report (2007)• MFE Science ReNew Workshop (2009)

Metrics needed to evaluate merits of activities, given limited resources• Decadal Study, and follow-on studies, can guide review of plasma science and applications not tied to the fusion goal• A 10-year strategic plan is needed for evaluation of fusion science activities

Magnetic fusion program leaders group approach to plan development

3

Ten Year Perspective of MFPL GroupAssume flat domestic budget (~ $300M) plus ITER

• Mission• Vision• Principles/Values• Strategic objectives/deliverables• Potential program elements • Evolving the program

GuidelinesAction items for community planning

4

Elements of a Ten-Year Plan for MFE Program

(next decade only – not to fusion energy)

MissionDevelop the science and technology to enable fusion energy, and advance the fundamental understanding of plasma science and its applications.

Vision• The U.S. is prepared to play a leading role in the scientific exploration of

burning plasmas as ITER begins operations

• The U.S. is ready to move into a fusion energy development program

• The U.S. has an established steward of plasma science in the federal complex

5

Scientific excellence: All elements of the program should be peer reviewed and held to the highest standards of scientific excellence.

Innovation: Stress innovation in all areas of research and development to enhance the attractiveness of fusion energy systems.

Leadership in key areas: Focus on those important areas where the U.S. can be world-leading. In the context of a world-wide, integrated fusion program, have a set of world leading user facilities and capabilities in the U.S.

High impact: Emphasize research topics with the greatest impact on the ultimate commercialization of fusion energy and on plasma science.

Training the next generation: A talented U.S. workforce of scientists and engineers is needed to gain maximum benefit from our investments in ITER, and to develop fusion energy and plasma science for the U.S. and the world.

Performance as an international partner: International cooperation is essential in ensuring the necessary scientific, technical, and financial resources required to develop fusion energy.

Principles/Values

6

Strategic Objectives/Deliverables

• Position the U.S. to play a leading role in the scientific exploration of burning plasmas through the ITER experiment.

• Establish the scientific basis for high performance, steady-state operation

• Produce solutions for the plasma material interface suitable for entry into a fusion energy development program.

• Assess structural materials and nuclear technologies for initial experiments in a fusion nuclear environment.

7

ITER support Tokamak experiments in US and international Integrated simulation program Preparation of US ITER research team and collaboration protocols

Steady State AT, ST and Stellarator domestic research programs Participation in SS research and experiments internationally Current Drive optimization and related technologiesPMI High plasma fluence test stands, toroidal or linear

Advanced magnetic divertors (radiation, geometry, detachment)Liquid metal

Solid metal wall developmentNuclear sciences Neutron irradiation experiments Nuclear materials development Engineering sciences of fusion heat and fuel management Tokamak development for integrated fusion facilityUnderlying Theory and simulationProgram elements Attractiveness enhancement activities

Hi Tc superconductorsLow field and compact confinement concepts

Li wall Advanced manufacturing technologies

Potential Program Elements

8

• Expect substantial evolution, including new or substantially upgraded facilities, even on a flat budget

• Include increased emphasis on engineering science, materials, computation, international collaboration

• Anticipate orderly transition of facilities to new activities– Resources will come from turnover of current facilities; existing facilities with

current capabilities will not keep the US world-leading in ten years

• A strong university program is crucial – for scientific vitality of US fusion and for workforce development

• Stakeholder participation at key decision points to ensure sound scientific/technical decisions– Ensure buy-in and support for new initiatives, especially large ones– Help grow next generation of community leaders

Guidelines for an Evolving Program

9

• Capability in fusion nuclear science

• Major upgrade to the remaining facility

• Stellarator facility

• PMI facility – toroidal or linear

Examples of Possible Major Program Additions in Second Five-year Term

10

Effective Program Planning Requires Continuous and Broad Research Community Involvement

• Nurturing an excellent, engaged research community to produce the best research for the taxpayers’ dollars

• Assuring technical soundness of all program activities

• Acquiring accurate status, needs, and opportunities from experts

• Establishing broad buy-in to major new initiatives, without which they will not succeed politically

• Developing new leadership for multi-generational program

This FESAC Subpanel is an excellent beginning for engaging community input in program planning

- We encourage this committee to recommend more opportunities and requirements for continuing community engagement over the next decade

11

This Subpanel can recommend a set of processes – including broad stakeholder participation – for establishing a clear set of goals for the next 10 years to guide the evolution of the program to achieve those goals. Consistent with the vision, principles, and deliverables discussed here, this leads to a very different mix of program elements than we have now. Also guides reasonably smooth evolution of the program activities.

Year 1 (2015) Develop technical contract within research community that will need to be met to justify enlargement of the US fusion research enterprise in ten years to include an energy development program. Define the future role of universities in the fusion program. Define and begin a new community process on future of plasma science. Year 2 (2016)Define opportunities in PMI, first wall materials, and FNS if there is a growing wedge of funding.Define opportunities for stellarator research.

Planning actions and technical assessments required to guide choice of activities and resource allocations

12

Year 3 (2017) Determine the placement of the FNSF in the U.S. roadmap based on ongoing scoping studies.

Year 4 (2018)Define the role major operating US fusion facilities.

Year 5 (2019)Define major experimental components for the next several years.

Year 6 (2020) Begin evolution toward the chosen set of facilities.

Year 7 (2021) If FNSF is a selected next step, complete community process that will lead to the needed reviews (NAS/NRC) and CD-0 approval of mission need, so that preliminary design is ready to begin in year 10 or before. 

13

An example of notional resource allocations illustrates strong program evolution over 10 years

• An example only, do not take exact fractions literally

14

A conclusion of planning activity

We can evolve to a substantially altered program, with world leadership in selected areas, in an orderly manner that maintains and grows our skills

A series of assessment and planning studies is required to map the path to realize an aggressive 10-year vision