perils of perception - global
DESCRIPTION
Ipsos MORI have compared perceptions of the likes of immigration levels, religious demographics and teenage birth rates with the actual figures across fourteen countries. See how your country did! How would you have fared? Take the quiz: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/perceptionsquizTRANSCRIPT
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 1
Perils of PerceptionA FOURTEEN COUNTRY STUDY
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 2
These are the findings from our 14 country study looking at how accurate
– or inaccurate – people are when asked to estimate basic facts about their population or social issues.
It shows how wrong we often are:
Perceptions are not reality…
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 3
IN YOUR OPINION WHATPERCENTAGE OF GIRLS AGED BETWEEN 15 AND 19 GIVE BIRTH EACH YEAR?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 4
24 3
18 1
17 0.5
16 2
15 1
16 3
15 2
14 0.4
14 0.2
14 1
12 0.6
11 0.7
11 0.5
8 0.7
+21
+17
+17
+14
+14
+14
+14
+14
+13
+13
+12
+11
+10
+7
US
Poland
Italy
Hungary
Canada
Great Britain
Australia
Germany
South Korea
Spain
France
Belgium
Japan
Sweden
AVG. GUESS ACTUAL% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH
Q. In your opinion what percentage of girls aged between 15 and 19 give birth each year?
People across the world hugely overestimate the proportion of teenagers who give birth each year.
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 5
Avera
ge g
uess
%
% Girls aged between 16 and 19 years that give birth each year
0 1 2 3 40
5
10
15
20
25
People across the world hugely overestimate the proportion of teenagers who give birth each year.
The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries
above the line have, on average, guessed too high
while countries below have guessed too low
Q. In your opinion what percentage of girls aged between 15 and 19 give birth each year?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 6
WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION DO YOU THINK ARE IMMIGRANTS TO THIS COUNTRY?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 7
30 7
32 13
29 10
28 10
16 2
35 21
14 1.75
24 13
23 12
23 13
10 2
10 2
23 16
35 28
+23
+19
+19
+18
+14
+14
+12
+11
+11
+10
+8
+8
+7
+7
Italy
US
Belgium
France
Hungary
Canada
Poland
Great Britain
Spain
Germany
Japan
South Korea
Sweden
Australia
AVG. GUESS ACTUAL
% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH
Q. What percentage of the population do you think are immigrants to this country?
All countries overestimate their level of immigration
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 8
Avera
ge g
uess
%
% Immigrants to this country
0 5 10 15 20 25 300
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q. What percentage of the population do you think are immigrants to this country?
All countries overestimate their level of immigration
The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries
above the line have, on average, guessed too high
while countries below have guessed too low
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 9
OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE MUSLIM?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 10
31 8
29 6
20 2
18 2
21 5
20 4
15 1
16 2
19 6
17 5
7 0.1
5 0.4
5 0.1
4 0.1
AVG. GUESS ACTUAL
+23
+23
+18
+16
+16
+16
+14
+14
+13
+12
+7
+5
+5
+4
France
Belgium
Canada
Australia
Great Britain
Italy
US
Spain
Germany
Sweden
Hungary
South Korea
Poland
Japan
TOO HIGH% POINT DIFFERENCE
Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are Muslim?
People in a number of countries massively overestimate the proportion of Muslims
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 11
Avera
ge g
uess
%
% Muslims
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
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Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are Muslim?
People in a number of countries massively overestimate the proportion of Muslims
The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries
above the line have, on average, guessed too high
while countries below have guessed too low
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 12
National Perceptions
OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE CHRISTIAN?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 13
+13
+10
+9
-14
-14
-15
-15
-16
-18
-19
-20
-21
-22
South Korea
Japan
Hungary
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
Poland
Australia
Belgium
Sweden
Great Britain
Canada
US
42 29
12 2
62 53
58 58
69 83
49 63
62 77
79 94
45 61
46 64
48 67
39 59
49 69
56 78
% POINT DIFFERENCEAVG.
GUESS ACTUALTOO LOW TOO HIGH
Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are Christian?
In contrast to the Muslim question, majority-Christian countries tend to underestimate how many people count themselves as Christian.
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 14
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Avera
ge g
uess
%
% Christians
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are Christian?
In contrast to the Muslim question, majority-Christian countries tend to underestimate how many people count themselves as Christian.
The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries
above the line have, on average, guessed too high
while countries below have guessed too low
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 15
National Perceptions
OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE OVER 65?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 16
48 21
42 15
39 14
43 18
37 14
36 14
40 18
41 19
38 18
37 17
40 21
41 25
32 16
33 19
+27
+27
+25
+25
+23
+22
+22
+22
+20
+20
+19
+16
+16
+14
Italy
Poland
Canada
Spain
Australia
US
Hungary
Belgium
France
Great Britain
Germany
Japan
South Korea
Sweden
AVG. GUESS ACTUAL% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH
Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are over 65?
All countries hugely overestimate the proportion of their population aged 65+
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 17
Avera
ge g
uess
%
% Over 65
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 300
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
Q. Out of every 100 people how many do you think are over 65?
All countries hugely overestimate the proportion of their population aged 65+
The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries
above the line have, on average, guessed too high
while countries below have guessed too low
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 18
National Perceptions
OUT OF EVERY 100 ELIGIBLE VOTERS ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK VOTED IN THE LAST ELECTION?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 19
57 80
54 75
49 66
47 64
60 76
43 59
55 69
58 72
72 85
51 61
84 93
42 49
85 89
57 58-1
-4
-7
-9
-10
-13
-14
-14
-16
-16
-17
-17
-21
-23
AVG. GUESS ACTUAL
France
Italy
Great Britain
Hungary
South Korea
Japan
Spain
Germany
Sweden
Canada
Australia
Poland
Belgium
US
% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO LOW
Q. Out of every 100 eligible voters how many do you think voted in the last election?
All countries underestimate the proportion of the population that voted in the last major national election
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 20
Avera
ge g
uess
%
% Voted in last election
40 50 60 70 80 90 1000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
Q. Out of every 100 eligible voters how many do you think voted in the last election?
All countries underestimate the proportion of the population that voted in the last major national election
The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries
above the line have, on average, guessed too high
while countries below have guessed too low
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 21
National Perceptions
OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE UNEMPLOYED AND LOOKING FOR WORK?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 22
49 12
32 4
39 11
32 6
34 9
31 8
46 25
29 9
23 6
24 7
24 8
23 7
19 4
20 6+14
+15
+16
+16
+17
+17
+20
+21
+23
+25
+26
+28
+28
+37Italy
South Korea
Hungary
US
Poland
Belgium
Spain
France
Australia
Great Britain
Sweden
Canada
Japan
Germany
AVG. GUESS ACTUAL% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH
Q. Out of every 100 people of working age about how many do you think are unemployed and looking for work?Unemployment
levels are hugely overestimated in every country
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 23
0 5 10 15 20 25 300
10
20
30
40
50
Avera
ge g
uess
%
% Unemployed and looking for work
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
Q. Out of every 100 people of working age about how many do you think are unemployed and looking for work?
Unemployment levels are hugely overestimated in every country
The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries
above the line have, on average, guessed too high
while countries below have guessed too low
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 24
National Perceptions
WHAT DO YOU THINK THE LIFE EXPECTANCY WILL BE OF A CHILD BORN IN 2014?
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 25
89 80
83 80
85 82
85 82
82 80
81 80
82 81
82 82
80 82
78 80
81 84
78 82
72 77
68 75
AVG. GUESS ACTUAL
Q. What do you think the life expectancy will be of a child born in 2014?
+9
+3
+3
+3
+2
+1
+1
-2
-2
-3
-4
-5
-7
South Korea
Great Britain
France
Sweden
Germany
Belgium
Spain
Australia
Canada
US
Japan
Italy
Poland
Hungary
TOO LOW TOO HIGHDIFFERENCE IN YEARS
People in most countries have a fairly accurate picture of life expectancy
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 26
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 9070
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
Avera
ge g
uess
%
Average life expectancy
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.
Q. What do you think the life expectancy will be of a child born in 2014?
People in most countries have a fairly accurate picture of life expectancy
The dashed line is a 45 degree line. Countries
above the line have, on average, guessed too high
while countries below have guessed too low
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 27
Looking across all questions, we have
calculated a measure of how accurate the
population of each country is.
This gives us our
“Index of Ignorance”
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 28
Italy
US
South Korea
Poland
Hungary
France
Canada
Belgium
Australia
Great Britain
Spain
Japan
Germany
Sweden
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
7th
2nd
10th
6th
11th
8th
14th
1st
13th
4th 3rd
12th
9th 5th
INDEX OF IGNORANCE
Sweden
Germany
JapanSpainGB
US
PolandHungary
Italy
South Korea
Belgium
FranceCanadaAustralia
(Least accurate at top)
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 29
National PerceptionsPERILS OF
PERCEPTION IN BRITAIN
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 30
% 15-19 girls that
gave birth
% Muslim
% Unemployed
% Immigrants
% Over 65
% Christian
% Voted
Life expectancy
3 5 713 17
5966
80
1621 24 24
37 3949
83
PERILS OF PERCEPTI
ON IN
BRITAIN
The British public are often very wrong about the basic make-up of their population and the scale of key social issues such as unemployment and behaviours like voting.
Actual Average guess
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 31
1%
3%
4%
11%
19%
21%
33%
39%
46%
49%
60%People come into the country illegally so aren’t counted
I still think the proportion is much higher
What I see in my local area
What I see when I visit other towns/cities
I was just guessing
Information seen on TV
Information seen in newspapers
The experiences of friends and family
Other
I misunderstood the question
Don’t know
% who thought immigration is 26% or more
IMMIGRATION
According to official statistics the percentage of the British population that was born in another country is actually 13%. Why do you think the percentage is much higher?
41%
Base: Asked of all who said 26%+
Respondents who thought immigration was more than double the actual figure said the main reason they over-estimated is because they believe illegal immigrants enter the country without being counted.
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 32
CRIME
Please tell me whether you think the following statement is true or false: The murder rate is rising in Britain
TRUE FALSE (Correct) Don't Know%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
25%
49%
26%
A quarter of the British public think the murder rate is rising – but half (correctly) say it is falling. More people get this correct in Britain than any other country
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 33
• This study is based on a survey run on Ipsos Global @dvisor, between 12-26 August 2014
• Global @dvisor is conducted monthly in 24 countries around the world via the Ipsos Online Panel.
• For this study, 14 countries with high internet penetration were included: Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and the US.
• The research is based on an international sample of 11,527 adults aged 18-64 in the US and Canada, and aged 16-64 in all other countries. Sample size is approximately 1,000 per country, with the exception of Belgium,
Hungary, Poland, South Korea and Sweden where each have a sample of approximately 500
• Data are weighted to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to the most recent Census data in each country
• The “point difference” figures that show differences between the “actual” and “average guesses” may not match a straight subtraction. This is due to rounding, as the calculation is conducted using decimal places
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 34
© Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
For more information, please contact:
Bobby Duffy, Global Director Ipsos Social Research [email protected] @BobbyIpsosMORI