perils of perception: perception gaps

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London

Perils of Perception


Bobby Duffy Director, Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute, Visiting Senior Fellow, King’s College London

Perception gaps


Out of every 100 people in Britain, about how many do you think are:

We have a very odd view of our population...

Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Census 2011, NOMIS; 2011 Census, Population and Household Estimates for England and Wales (July 2012) ONS; Families and Households, 2012 (November 2012) ONS..

34 36

30

22 24 28

Mean 59

16 11

8 5 3

Actual

Christian Aged 65+ Black/Asian Unemployed Muslim Single parents


In your opinion, what proportion of girls under the age of 16 years in Britain get pregnant each year?

Extraordinary view of teenage girls...

Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

5

24

5

16

8

5

7

31

1% or less

2%-5%

6%-9%

10%-19%

20%-29%

30%-39%

40%+

Don’t … Don’t know

Mean 15%

Actual 0.6%


In your opinion, is the number of people coming to live in the UK from other countries too high, too low or about right?

Lot of concern about immigration....

Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

76

14

2 8

Too high About right Too low Don't know

Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75

Legitimate concerns, driven by number of factors...


...but there is also huge over-estimation of scale

Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75, *British Social Attitudes Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 ; *Detailed country of birth and nationality analysis from the 2011 Census of England and Wales, (May 2013) ONS. **Immigration Statistics, January to March 2013, (May 2013) Home Office.

What percentage of the United Kingdom

population do you think are immigrants to

this country (i.e. not born in the UK)?

31

13

Mean unprompted

Actual


...but there is also huge over-estimation of scale

Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75, *British Social Attitudes

What percentage of the United Kingdom

population do you think are immigrants to

this country (i.e. not born in the UK)?

26

31

13

Mean prompted

Mean unprompted

Actual

Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 ; *Detailed country of birth and nationality analysis from the 2011 Census of England and Wales, (May 2013) ONS. **Immigration Statistics, January to March 2013, (May 2013) Home Office.


According to the last Census in 2011, the percentage of the UK population that was born in another country is actually 13%. Why do you think the percentage is much higher?

Why do people believe it is higher?

Base: 376 British adults aged 16-75 (all who thought the percentage of immigrants in the UK was 26% or higher) Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

56

46

36

34

23

19

16

10

1

1

3

People come into the country illegally so aren’t counted

I still think the proportion is much higher than 13%

What I see in my local area

What I see when I visit other towns/cities

I was just guessing

Information seen on TV

Information seen in newspapers

The experiences of friends and family

I misunderstood the question

Other

Don’t know


0

10

20

30

40

0 10 20 30 40

We’re not alone...

Source: Sides, J. and Citrin, J. (2007) How large the huddled masses? The causes and consequences of Public misperceptions about immigrant populations. Paper presented at 2007 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Sciences

Association, Chicago, IL.

0

10

20

30

40

0 10 20 30 40 Actual percentage foreign-born

Estimated percentage foreign-born

Lux

Switz US

UK Port

Italy

Den

Ger

France


Below are a number of statements about how Britain and our public services have changed over the last few years. For each one I would like you to tell me whether you think it is true or false:

We’re too negative about crime trends – but...


51

83

Violent crime is rising

2013

2005

Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Closing the gaps: Crime and public perceptions, (2005) Ipsos MORI; Crime in England and Wales, Year Ending December 2012, (April 2013) ONS; Police Service Strength England and Wales, 31 March 2012, (July 2012) Home Office.

%True


Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government spends the most money on?

We’re very wrong on government spending...


45

38

30

29

26

24

16

14

4

11

Interest payments on the national debt

Health

Working age benefits

Defence

Overseas aid

State pensions

Education and schools

Policing and criminal justice

Transport

Don’t know Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Government spending by department, 2011-12: get the data, (December 2012) Guardian;

Medium-term forecast for all DWP benefits, (April 2013) DWP.


38

30

24

16

45

29

4

26

14

11

£52bn

£107bn

Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government spends the most money on?

...easier to see when re-order by actual spend...


Actual

£48bn

£82bn

£37bn

£8bn

£74bn

£6bn

£12bn

Interest payments on the national debt

Health

Working age benefits

Defence

Overseas aid

State pensions

Education and schools

Policing and criminal justice

Transport

Don’t know Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Government spending by department, 2011-12: get the data, (December 2012) Guardian;

Medium-term forecast for all DWP benefits, (April 2013) DWP.


And which do you think the UK Government spends more on, Job Seeker’s Allowance (JSA) or state pensions?

Pensions v JSA...


29

4.9

11 47

74.2

JSA Both the same Pension

Actual spend (£bn)

And which do you think the UK Government spends more

on, Job Seeker’s Allowance (JSA) or state pensions?

Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; A Survey of the UK Benefit System: IFS Briefing Note BN13 (November 2012) Institute for Fiscal Studies.

15x more on pensions....


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

What benefit changes do we support and expect to save the most?


Support most

Saves most

Stopping child benefit at £50k+

Capping benefits at £26,000

“Bedroom tax”

Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Joyce, R. Thought’s on a benefit cap (February 2012) IFS. Sharing the burden - How the older generation should suffer its share of the cuts: IEA Discussion Paper No. 34 (February 2011) IEA; A Survey of the UK Benefit System: IFS Briefing Note BN13, (November 2012) Institute for Fiscal Studies; Impact Assessment: Welfare Benefits Up-rating

Bill (January 2013) DWP; Hain, P. Why Labour is wrong to cut winter fuel allowance for wealthy pensioners, (June 2013) Huffington Post. Impact Assessment: Housing Benefit: Under occupation of social housing, (June 2012) DWP; Pensioners and the tax and benefit system: IFS Briefing Note BN130, (2012) IFS.

Raising pension age to 66

£5bn

£290m

£1.7bn

£500m

Popularity affects estimates...?

or £185m


Out of every £100 spent from the welfare budget, can you tell me how much of that is claimed fraudulently (i.e. people who dishonestly claim more benefits than they are entitled to)?

Biggest misperception on benefit fraud...


Mean estimate £24 Actual 70p

Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; National Statistics fraud and error in the benefit system: preliminary 2012/13 estimates (Great Britain) first release, (June2013) DWP.


When you were answering the last question, which of the following activities, if any, were you thinking of as fraud?

Although may be measuring different things?

Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

79

75

67

55

46

42

34

32

9

People providing false information to claim more benefits than they are entitled to

People faking disabilities or illness

Not reporting changes in circumstances e.g. a partner moving in

Working cash-in-hand

People on unemployment benefit not trying to find work

People from abroad/immigrants claiming benefits

People claiming benefits who haven’t paid any taxes/national insurance

People having more children so that they are entitled to more benefits

Don’t know

} 45%


Why do these gaps exist?


Misperceptions/ innumeracy

Why do these gaps exist?

Cognitive errors - Statistical literacy: difficulty with

large/small numbers; levels v trends etc

- Social psychology: availability heuristic; focus on negative information; framing/anchoring important; take time to notice

Media/political rhetoric - Vivid stories; less

emphasis on scale

“Emotional innumeracy” - Reflects concerns, not facts - Motivated reasoning: “accuracy goals”

vs “directional goals”

Measurement/ definitional - Imprecision in questions - ...but also talking about different

things


In our own way, we’re like Einstein...

“If the facts don’t fit the theory, change the facts...”


Thank you [email protected] @BobbyIpsosMORI

Thank you

mailto:[email protected]

perils of perception: perception gaps

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