performance prediction: truths and falsehoods dr. jordan b peterson professor of psychology...
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Performance Prediction: Truths and Falsehoods
Dr. Jordan B PetersonProfessor of Psychology
University of Toronto
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What do psychologists do?
• Pursue scientific truth• Pursue careers
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How to pursue scientific truth
• MEASUREMENT– If the phenomenon cannot be measured
• It does not exist
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How to pursue scientific truth, continued
• CONSTRUCT VALIDATION– Multimethod, multitrait
• Analogous to sensory analysis– Five senses, not one– Plus intrasubjective measurement– Plus technological extension of sensory analysis
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Use statistics destructively
• Aim at demolishing your effect
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How to pursue a career
• Invent a scale (or a construct)– Or rename a scale that already exists
• Refuse to validate it– No convergence– No divergence– No criterion– No multimethod, multitrait analysis
• Correlate it with some phenomenon
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How to pursue a career, continued
• Publish the paper• Establish a small primate dominance hierarchy
– Based on the scale– Climb the hierarchy
• Use statistics selectively– Very selectively
• Enjoy the fruits of your success!– But seriously distort the knowledge base– And spend your time chasing red herrings
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NATURE | NEWS FEATURE
• Replication studies: Bad copy– In the wake of high-profile controversies,
psychologists are facing up to problems with replication.
• Ed Yong– 16 May 2012
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Things that might not exist
• Self-esteem– (neuroticism – extraversion)– 25000 published papers
• Whole political and educational agendas
• Working memory and EF– IQ?
• Emotional intelligence– Agreeableness
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Things that might not exist
• Grit• MacArthur Genius Grant (Angela Duckworth)• Martin Seligman (positive psychology)• Conscientiousness
• Optimism/Pessimism– Extraversion/neuroticism
• Promotion/prevention– Extraversion/conscientiousness
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Things that might not exist
• Empathy– Measures do not correlate well, but distill to
agreeableness
• Psychopathy– Agreeableness, negative, minus conscientiousness– Predatory parasite
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Things that might not exist
• Positive illusions– Extraversion, by Taylor’s own analysis
• Practical intelligence– Sternberg is a crook
• Multiple intelligences– Gardner is a crook
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Things that might not exist
• Any questionnaire measure independent of the Big Five
• Any measure of cognitive function independent of IQ
• Any behavioral measure of a trait, independent of IQ and the Big Five
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Things that might exist
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Individual Differences
• Contextual and individual factors
– Contextual• Cultural factors• Peer networks• Social support
– Individual• Personality• Cognitive ability
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Personality
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TraitsMeasurement
ItemsEmployment Variables
Economic Value
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Traits
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STABILITY Emotional Stability
Agreeableness
Industriousness
Orderliness
Politeness
Compassion
Conscientiousness
Volatility (r)
Withdrawal (r)
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PLASTICITY
Extraversion
Openness
AssertivenessEnthusiasm
CreativityIntellect
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Personality• Extraversion
– Happiness, optimism, enthusiasm, gregariousness, assertiveness• Neuroticism
– .2-.3 with major life outcomes• Particularly anxiety and depression, since that’s what it measures
• Agreeableness– Compliance, empathy, maternality, kinship– criminality
• Conscientiousness– .4 with major life outcomes
• Openness– Creativity, intelligence
• Disagreeable/neurotic– Personality disorders
• Gender differences– 75% classification accuracy
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Emotion & Motivation• Extraversion
– Incentive reward (hope, curiosity, play, enthusiasm)/dopamine– Harvest attention/approach and exploit social situations
• Neuroticism– Pain, frustration, disappointment, fear, anxiety/GABA, Serotonin– Avoid threat, uncertainty and punishment
• Agreeableness– Empathy, sympathy, compliance, CARE (Oxytocin)– Form intimate relationships and share
• Vs
– Pursue individual agenda/defend territory– People vs things
• Conscientiousness– Orderliness: DISGUST– Industriousness: GUILT, SHAME– Maintain order
• Stay uncontaminated and sparkly clean
– Implement goals• Openness
– Manipulate abstractions prior to implementation– General Cognitive Ability– Awe, curiosity– Non-social incentive reward/dopamine
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Models are grounded in motivation
Capitalize on social groupsMaintain order
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Measurement
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Items
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Measurement• Trait Measures
• Big Five Aspect Scale• Unfakeable Big Five
• General cognitive ability• Fluid• Crystallized• Dorsolateral prefrontal
• Creativity • Creative Achievement Questionnaire• Divergent thinking and fluency
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(BFAS) Conscientiousness
• Industriousness– Waste my time (r)– Always know what I am doing
• Orderliness– Am not bothered by disorder (r)– Follow a schedule
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(BFAS) Emotional Stability
• Volatility– Get angry easily– Keep my emotions under control
• Withdrawal– Seldom feel blue– Am filled with doubts about things
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(BFAS) Agreeableness
• Politeness– Respect authority– Believe that I am better than others (r)
• Compassion– Am not interested in other people’s problems (r)– Take no time for others (r)
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(BFAS) Openness
• Creativity– Believe in the importance of art– Love to reflect on things
• Intellect (but see general cognitive ability)– Am quick to understand things– Can handle a lot of information
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(BFAS) Extraversion
• Assertiveness– Take charge– Lack the talent for influencing people (r)
• Enthusiasm– Make friends easily– Am hard to get to know (r)
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Unfakeable Big Five (+)
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Unfakeable Big Five (-)
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Cognitive Ability
• The complexity of the world– Motivated ends must be met– Modeling of possibility prior to implementation
• Models generate solutions to three problems:– Where are you?– Where are you going?– How are you going to get there?
– Allows testing and failure• Popper: “Our hypotheses die in our stead”
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Conceptions of cognitive ability
– INTELLIGENCES–Practical vs analytical–Social, emotional, moral–Multiple: linguistic, musical, logical-mathematical, spatial, body-kinesthetic, intrapersonal, interpersonal
– INTELLIGENCE–Highest strata has the most explanatory power
» “g” measures “success” across broad domains» r ~ .50
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Effect Size
• Relative magnitude
• r= .50 90-97%ile• r= .35-.50 75-90%ile• r= .15-.35 25-57%ile• r< .15 0-25%ile
• Hemphill, J.F. (2003). Interpreting the magnitudes of correlation coefficients. American Psychologist, 58, 78-8.
• Binomial
– Predictor r = .30• From 50/50• To 65/30
– Predictor r = .50• From 50/50• To 75/25
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General Cognitive Ability
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Creativity
• Visual Arts (painting, sculpture)• 0. I have no training or talent in this area.• 1. I have taken lessons in this area.• 2. People comment on my talent in this
area.• 3. I won one or more prizes at juried art
shows.• 4. I showed my work in a gallery.• 5. I sold a piece of my work.• 6. My work was critiqued in local
publications.• 7. My work was critiqued in national
publications.
• Inventions• 0. I do not have recognized talent in this area.• 1. I find novel uses for household objects.• 2. I sketched out an invention and worked on
its design flaws.• 3. I created original software for a computer.• 4. I built a prototype of one of my designed
inventions.• 5. I sold an inventions to people I know.• 6. I received a patent for one of my inventions.• 7. I sold an invention to a manufacturing firm.
Creative Achievement Questionnaire
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Employment Variables
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Complexity
Inno
vatio
n
Hi/HiEntrepreneurial
Lo/HiManagerial/Administrative
Lo/LoRote Tasks
Hi/Lo
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Who suits which position?
• Cognitive ability
• High levels of fluid and executive intelligence– Decision making and planning– Research
• High levels of retrieval– Creativity and ideational production– Leadership and public speaking
• High levels of crystallized intelligence– Information dispensing and storage– Writing and lecturing
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Who suits which position?
• Specific Performance• Openness (r = .30 - .40)
– Associated with high levels of creativity/entrepreneurial ability
– Extraversion (r = .20)» Managers» Sales People» Leadership
– Agreeableness» Lower levels associated with creativity/managerial excellence» Higher levels for public relations, customer service (?)
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Openness
• Complexity and Intelligence
• Innovation and Creativity
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Conscientiousness
• Duty and Industriousness
• Disgust and Orderliness
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Employment Variables II
• Emotional Stability• High vs Low Stress
• Agreeableness• People vs Things
• Extraversion• Solitary vs Gregarious
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Economic Value
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Complexity and cognitive ability
• 95-86 percentile– IQ 130 – 116
• 85-73 percentile– IQ 115-110
• Attorney, Research Analyst• Editor, Advertising Manager• Chemist, Engineer, Executive• Manager, Trainee, • Systems Analyst, Auditor
• Copywriter, Accountant• Manager/Supervisor • Sales Manager • Sales, Programmer• Analyst, Teacher, Adjuster• General Manager • Purchasing Agent• Registered Nurse• Sales Account Executive
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Complexity and cognitive ability
• 70-60 percentile
– IQ 108-103
• 55-50 percentile– IQ 102-100
• Administrative Assistant• Store Manager, Bookkeeper• Credit Clerk. Drafter, Designer • Lab Tester/Tech, Assistant Manager • General Sales, Telephone Sales• Secretary, Accounting Clerk,• Medical Debt Collection • Computer Operator • Customer Service Rep • Technician, Automotive Salesman• Clerk, Typist
• Dispatcher, General Office• Police Patrol Officer• Receptionist, Cashier • General Clerical• Inside Sales Clerk, Meter Reader• Printer, Teller, Data Entry • Electrical Helper
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Complexity and cognitive ability
• 45-42 percentile
– IQ 98-95
• 37-21 percentile– IQ 93-87
• Machinist, Food Dept Manager• Quality Control Checker • Claims Clerk, Driver/Deliveryman• Security Guard, Unskilled Labor• Maintenance, Machine Operator• Arc Welder, Die Setter, Mechanic• Medical/Dental Assistant
• Messenger, Factory Production• Assembler, Food Service Worker• Nurse’s Aide, Warehouseman• Custodian/Janitor• Material Handler• Packer
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Economic Value I
• Predictive Power• r = .6 to r = .2
– Intelligence– Conscientiousness (managerial)– Openness Creativity (innovative)– Emotional Stability
– Agreeableness– Extraversion
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Economic Value II
• Binomial Effect Size
• Price’s Law
• Economic Impact of Prediction
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Pareto Distribution
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Individual variation and productivity
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
education
interest
academic achievement
training/experience ratings
interview
experience
reference check
personality
biographical inventory
job tryout
cognitive ability
prefrontal ability
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– Number of years– Current - Potential Predictor– Job Complexity
• High complexity = high variability
– Salary• Theoretically proportionate to output• Average output must be 2x salary
Economic value and placement
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Process
• Advertise• Test online• Screen• Interview best candidates
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