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  • 7/27/2019 Performance of food crops in Afghanistan H-Seminar-II

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    Presented by

    Ghulam Honaryar

    I.D. No. PAK-8062

    Major Advisor: Dr.G.S.Mahadevaiah

    Seminar-II

    on

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    Introduction: Agriculture is central to the Afghan economy. This sector contributes to

    31 % of GDP (industry 26% , services 43 %) and provides employment

    for (80%) of the labour force ( 2008 est.)

    Main food crops growing in Afghanistan are wheat, rice, maize, and

    barley

    Wheat is the staple food for most Afghans, comprising more

    than 70 percent of their diet.

    Lowquality rice is a poor, but sometimes necessary, substitute.

    Suffering for food! Afghans bread (bakery) 3

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    Land Use 1995-96 1999-2000 2008-09CGR (1995-

    2008)

    1: Permanent Pasture 30,000 30,000 30,000 0

    2: All Other Land 25,770 25,770 25,613 0.08

    3: Agricultural Area (a+b+c+d) 9,453 9,453 9,610 0.22

    a. Forests And Woodland 1,700 1,700 1,700 0

    b. Temporary land 5,108 5,075 4,570 2.21

    c. Irrigated Crops area 1,969 1,999 2,191 1.35

    d. Cultivated Rain fed area 833 837 1,149 9.51

    Permanent Crops 100 100 116 3.61

    Total Land area (1+2+3) 65,223 65,223 65,223 0

    Table 1: Land use for different purpose in Afghanistan during 1995-2008(Area in 000 Ha)

    Source: Central Statistic Office Yearbook 2008-09, Afghanistan4

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    1: Permanent Pasture

    40%

    2: All Other Land

    34%

    3: Agricultural Area

    (a+b+c+d)

    13%

    Forests And Woodland(a)

    2% Temporary

    land(b)

    6%

    Irrigated

    Cropsarea(c)

    3%

    Cultivated Rain fed area(

    d)2%

    Permanent Crops

    0%

    Figure 1: Land use in Afghanistan (%), 2008-09

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    Table 2: Cultivated land area for different food crops during 1995-2008

    (Area 000 Ha)

    Year 1995-96 2008-9 CGR(1995-2008)

    Wheat 2000 2139 2.08

    Rice, Paddy 170 190 1.83

    Barley 225 236 4.43

    Maize 320 137 1.61

    Millet 27 12 9.08

    Pulses 37 294 26.36

    Cereals Total 2779 3008 2.76

    Source: Central Statistic Office Yearbook 2008-09, Afghanistan6

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    Table 3: Production of different food crops during 1995-96 to 2008-09

    (Prodn. In MT)

    Year 1995-96 2002-03 2008-09 CGR(1995-2008)

    Wheat 2000 2686 2623 7.90

    Rice, Paddy 390 388 410 1.89

    Barley 200 345 333 4.68

    Maize 530 298 280 1.12

    Millet 22 20 n/a -5.19

    Pulses 50 50 n/a -1.01

    Cereals Total 3192 3787 3646 5.61

    Source: Central Statistic Office Yearbook 2008-09, Afghanistan7

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    Table 4: Yield of different food crops during 1995-96 to 2008-09

    (Tonnes/Ha)Year 1995-96 2002-03 2005-06 2006 -07 2008-09 CGR

    Wheat 1.03 0.72 1.82 1.38 1.23 2.27

    Rice, Paddy 1.79 1.49 2.03 2.26 2.16 0.66

    Barley 1.07 3.37 1.40 1.54 1.41 0.32

    Maize 1.60 0.52 1.21 2.62 2.04 0.48

    Millet 0.86 0.81 0.81 1.00 n/a 4.20

    Pulses 1.07 1.35 1.30 n/a n/a 0.79

    Cereals Total 1.15 1.66 1.73 1.49 1.21 3.06

    Source: Central Statistic Office Yearbook 2008-09, Afghanistan

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    Table 5: Area and Production of different Cereals in 2009Crop

    Area

    (000 ha)

    Per cent

    Yield

    (tonnes/

    ha)

    Production

    (000

    tonnes)

    Per cent

    Irrigated wheat

    (Winter & Spring)1134 (36%) 3.03 3433 (54 %)

    Rainfed wheat

    (Winter & Spring)

    1426 (45 %) 1.18 1682 (27 %)

    All wheat 2560 (81 %) 2 5115 (81 %)

    Milled rice (paddy

    yield)190 (6%) 3.39 432 (7%)

    Maize 140 (4%) 2.14 300 (5%)Barley 270 (9%) 1.8 486 (8 %)

    Overall 3160 (100%) 6333 (100%)

    Source: Agriculture Prospect Report (APR) Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), 20099

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    Table 6: Changes in the 2009 wheat area, yield and production compared to 2008 (Area1000 Ha, Yield T/Ha, Prodn. 1000 Tonnes)

    Crop2008 2009 % change in

    Area Yield Prod Area Yield Prod Area Yield Prod

    Irrigated

    wheat 990 2.43 2,406 1,134 3.03 3,433 12.70 19.80 29.92

    Rainfed

    wheat1,149 0.19 217 1,426 1.18 1,682 19.42 83.90 87.10

    All wheat 2,139 1.23 2,623 2,560 2 5,115 16.45 38.50 48.72

    Source: Agriculture Prospect Report (APR) Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), 2009

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    Table 7: The 2009 Cereal Balance Sheet (000 tonnes)

    CropRequirements Domestic

    productionDeficit

    Food Seed Feed Loss Total

    Irrigated

    wheat199 -- 515 3,433

    Rainfed wheat 118 -- 253 1,682

    All wheat 4,175 317 -- 768 5,260 5,115 -145

    Milled rice 444 20 -- 30 494 432 -62

    Maize 52 8 195 45 300 300 --

    Barley 26 30 357 73 486 486 --

    Total 4,697 375 552 916 6,540 6,333 -207

    Source: Agriculture Prospect Report (APR) Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and

    Livestock (MAIL), 2009

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    Table 8: Agricultural commodity retail market prices in April 2009(Afs/Kg.), (1 Afs = 0.95 Rs)

    Commodity Region

    Last year

    Same month

    (Apr 08)

    Previous

    month

    (Mar 09)

    Reporting

    month

    (Apr 09)

    % change on

    Previous month

    Previous year

    same month

    Wheat North 30.8 20.6 18.0 -12.6 -41.6

    Wheat North-East 30.5 21.0 17.5 -16.7 -42.6

    Wheat West 28.7 19.0 17.7 -7.0 -38.4

    Wheat West-Central 23.5 28.0 26.5 -5.4 12.8

    Wheat Central 29.7 22.5 18.7 -17.0 -37.1

    Wheat South 30.5 21.5 20.0 -7.0 -34.4

    Wheat East 32.0 22.5 19.5 -13.3 -39.1

    Wheat South-West 29.4 25.0 22.7 -9.3 -22.9Wheat Overall 29.8 22.4 19.8 -11.7 -33.7

    Agri. Labor Overall 191.8 (m.d) 190.8 196.8 3.1 2.6

    Urea Overall 15.1 18.9 18.5 -2.3 22.1

    DAP Overall 38.0 37.7 37.0 -1.7 -2.5

    Source:Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), 200912

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    Table 9 :Rice paddy Barley and Maize Area, Yield, and Production Zones-vise

    (2008-09)

    Barley Rice Paddy Maize

    ZonesArea (000

    He)

    Yield

    (T/He)

    Prod

    (000 Mt)

    Area(000

    He)

    Yield

    (T/He)

    Prod (000

    Mt)

    Area(000

    He)

    Yield

    T/He)

    Prod

    (000 Mt)

    NORTH 83.5 1.64 137.0 12.0 2.15 25.8 28.21 2.04 57.64

    NORTH-EAST40.2 1.47 58.9 110.0 2.01 221.4 4.80 2.06 9.90

    WEST-

    CENTRAL9.0 1.22 11.0 0.9 5.50 5.0 0.65 2.00 1.30

    SOUTH 33.7 1.36 45.9 7.5 2.65 19.9 29.00 2.04 59.30

    EAST 1.4 1.74 2.5 35.0 2.27 79.3 23.70 2.04 48.39

    SOUTH-WEST 38.1 0.97 37.1 2.5 2.22 5.6 28.60 2.04 58.40

    Total 236.0 1.41 333.0 190.0 2.16 410.0 137 2.04 280

    Source: Central Statistic Office Yearbook 2008-09, Afghanistan 13

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    Irrigated Wheat Rainfed Wheat Total Wheat

    REGION Area Yield Production Area YieldProduction

    Area YieldProduction

    ('000 ha)

    (t/ha)

    ('000 tons)

    ('000 ha)(t/ha)

    ('000 tons)

    ('000 ha)

    (t/ha

    )

    ('000

    tons)

    NORTH 226 2.62 591 705 1.15 812 931 1.51 1,403

    NORTH-EAST 224 3.04 682 370 1.18 435 594 1.88 1,117WEST 152 3.34 508 240 1.25 300 392 2.06 808

    WEST-CENTRAL 40 3.03 121 54 1.46 79 94 2.13 200

    CENTRAL 122 2.96 361 19 1.21 23 141 2.72 384

    SOUTH 109 3.26 355 12 0.92 11 121 3.02 366

    EAST 87 3.06 266 11 0.73 8 98 2.80 274SOUTH-WEST 174 3.16 549 15 0.93 14 189 2.98 563

    TOTAL 1,134 3.03 3,433 1,426 1.18 1,682 2,560 2.00 5,115

    Source Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), 2009

    Table 10: Area and Production of Wheat in 2009 by province (mid-May 2009)

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    REGION

    Settledpopulation

    in 2009

    ('000 no.)

    Irrigatedwheat

    area forecast

    2010 harvest('000 ha.)

    Rainfedwheat

    area forecast

    2010 harvest('000 ha.)

    Production2009

    ('000 tons)

    RequirementSurplus or

    Deficit

    ('000)

    tons)

    Human

    consumption('000 tons)

    Seed

    ('000) tons)

    Post harvest

    Losses('000 tons)

    NORTH 3,410.1 226 705 1,403 545.6 98.0 210.6 548.8

    NORTH-EAST 3,465.6 224 370 1,117 554.4 69.9 167.7 325.0

    WEST 2,583.3 152 240 808 413.4 46.5 121.3 226.8

    WEST-

    CENTRAL1,029.9 40 54 200 164.8 11.5 30.0 -6.3

    CENTRAL 5,602.1 122 19 384 896.4 22.9 57.7 -593.0

    SOUTH 2,524.5 109 12 366 403.9 20.0 55.0 -112.9

    EAST 2,303.8 87 11 274 368.6 16.1 41.2 -151.9

    SOUTH-WEST 3,074.2 174 15 563 491.9 31.7 84.6 -45.2

    Total for

    settled23,993.5 1134 1,426 5115 3,839.0 316.6 768.1 191.3

    Nomads 1,700.0 0 0 0 272.0 -- -- -272.0Returnees 400.0 0 0 0 64.0 -- -- -64.0

    Overall

    consumers26,093.5 1134 1,426.0 5,115.0 4,175.0 316.6 768.1 -144.7

    Sources: Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), 2009

    Table 11: Wheat Balance in 2009 Zones-wise

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    Figure2: Wheat Balance in 2009 province-wise

    surplus=>50000

    surplus=50000

    Deficit Up to

    25000Deficit from 25

    to 50000

    Deficit=>50000

    (tonnes)

    Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), 2009 16

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    A study was conducted by Hector Maletta in April 2006.

    The main data source is the Winter Survey carried out at the

    beginning of 2003 by the Ministry of Agriculture of Afghanistan

    supported by FAO (the United Nations Food and Agriculture

    Organization) and WFP (the UN World Food Programme).

    The Winter Survey interviewed a sample of 4761 farmers in 514

    rural communitiesacross the country, covering all agro-ecologicalzones and watersheds, and 31 of a total of 32 provinces.

    Cereal self-sufficiency in Afghanistan farms

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    Table 12: Households, population and reported cereal output by level of self-sufficiency, 2002

    Particular % house-

    holds

    %

    population

    % cereal

    output

    Cum. %

    house-

    holds

    Cum. %

    population

    Cum. %

    cereal

    output

    BELOW SELF SUFFICIENCY 57.7% 60.2% 15.1%

    No cereal output 12.2% 12.3% 0.0 12.2% 12.30% 0.00%

    1 - 24 kg/capita 5.6% 6.4% .4% 17.8% 18.70% 0.40%

    25-49 kg/capita 10.6% 11.6% 1.9% 28.4% 30.20% 2.40%

    50-99 kg/capita 16.6% 17.3% 5.7% 45.% 47.50% 8.00%100-149 kg/capita 12.7% 12.7% 7.1% 57.7% 60.20% 15.10%

    NEAR SELF-SUFFICIENCY 14.4% 13.9% 12.1%

    150-199 kg/capita 8.1% 7.8% 6.% 65.8% 68.00% 21.10%

    200-250 kg/capita 6.3% 6.1% 6.1% 72.1% 74.10% 27.20%

    ABOVE SELF-SUFFICIENCY 27.9% 25.9% 72.8%250-499 kg/capita 16.1% 15.% 23.4% 88.2% 89.10% 50.60%

    500-999 kg/capita 8.5% 7.7% 23.4% 96.7% 96.70% 74.00%

    1000+ kg/capita 3.3% 3.3% 26.% 100.% 100.00% 100.00%

    TOTAL 100.% 100.% 100.%

    Source: MAIL, FAO,WFP (2003) 18

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    Table1 3: Wheat purchases and food aid (% farms)

    Since last harvest have you:

    Purchased wheat?

    Received food

    aid?

    Agro-ecological zone

    Badakhshan mountains 39.4% 21.2%

    Central mountains 66.8% 14.0%

    Eastern mountains 89.6% 2.7%

    Southern mountains 80.4% 0.3%

    Northern mountains 56.1% 18.3%

    Turkistan plains 52.7% 21.7%Herat-Farah lowlands 77.1% 28.4%

    Helmand River valley 74.6% 0.4%

    TOTAL 69.10% 13.70%Source: MAIL, FAO,WFP (2003)

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    Table 14. Comparison of cereal balance status 2002 and 2003

    Reported balance

    2002Total

    Expected balance 2003

    Deficit

    householdsAbout self

    sufficient

    Surplus

    households

    Deficit households 612,589 447,017 79,562 86,010

    About self-sufficient 152,641 25,724 60,077 66,840

    Surplus households 297,346 16,442 20,800 260,104

    Total 1,062,576 489,183 160,439 412,954

    Source: MAIL, FAO,WFP (2003)

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    Table 15: Months of wheat self-sufficiency of farm households, after the reported 2002 harvest

    Percent of households within each zone or region

    Average

    monthsMonths of wheat self-sufficiency for farmers

    Total None 1 to 3 4 to 6 7 to 9 10 to 12

    Agro-ecological zone

    Badakhshan mountains 100.00% 2.10% 11.40% 10.90% 8.80% 66.80% 9.4

    Central mountains 100.00% 18.40% 20.90% 20.90% 12.60% 27.30% 5.6

    Eastern mountains 100.00% 21.00% 40.50% 20.10% 7.70% 10.70% 3.6

    Southern mountains 100.00% 22.80% 29.80% 24.90% 11.10% 11.30% 4

    Northern mountains 100.00% 13.30% 14.60% 14.20% 11.40% 46.40% 7.4

    Turkistan plains 100.00% 6.00% 18.20% 15.30% 11.30% 49.20% 7.9

    Herat-Farah lowlands 100.00% 17.80% 31.50% 18.10% 10.30% 22.30% 5Helmand River valley 100.00% 11.00% 26.40% 20.60% 10.30% 31.70% 6.1

    TOTAL 100.00% 15.60% 24.60% 18.10% 10.60% 31.00% 5.9

    Source: MAIL, FAO,WFP (2003)

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    Table 16: Percent geographical distribution of farm households

    with various degrees of wheat self-sufficiency after the reported 2002 harvest

    Percent distribution across zones or regions

    Total

    households

    Months of wheat self-sufficiency for farmers

    None 1 to 3 4 to 6 7 to 9 10 to 12

    Agro-ecological zone

    Badakhshan

    mountains3.30% 0.40% 1.50% 2.00% 2.80% 7.20%

    Central mountains 15.70% 18.50% 13.30% 18.00% 18.60% 13.80%

    Eastern mountains 16.60% 22.40% 27.30% 18.40% 12.10% 5.70%

    Southern mountains 7.50% 10.90% 9.00% 10.20% 7.80% 2.70%

    Northern mountains 26.40% 22.50% 15.60% 20.70% 28.50% 39.60%

    Turkistan plains 7.00% 2.70% 5.20% 5.90% 7.50% 11.10%

    Herat-Farah lowlands 13.80% 15.70% 17.60% 13.70% 13.40% 9.90%

    Helmand River valley 9.70% 6.80% 10.40% 11.00% 9.40% 9.90%

    TOTAL 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

    Source: MAIL, FAO,WFP (2003)22

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    Analysis of Impact of Wheat Prices on Food Accessibility:

    The figure shows the increase in the price of wheat

    flour in main Afghan centres during the past year.

    The greatest change occurred in Faizabad, with a

    76% increase, while the smallest was recorded in

    Jalalabad and Hirat, with a 50% increase

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    Figure3: compare of wheat flour price 06 v s 07

    Source: Afghanistan Market Price Bulletin

    (March 2009)

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    The main reasons for the increases appear to be:

    The nearly doubling of international wheat prices over the past year, largely driven byunprecedented growth in demand in some Asian countries, notably China and India; increasing useof cereals for bio-fuels; and a poor wheat harvest in Australia;

    Manipulation of wheat availability and prices by Pakistani traders;

    less wheat flour imports from Pakistan owing to restrictions on exports imposed by Pakistanauthorities;

    Higher transportation costs globally due to the considerable increase in fuel prices;

    Higher transport and distribution costs in Afghanistan caused by growing insecurity and theresulting threat to commercial vehicles

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    Terms of Trade for Afghan Wage EarnersFigure 4: casual labour/wheat Dec 2006 v s Dec 2007

    Source: Afghanistan Market Price Bulletin

    (March 2009)

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    [Household Food Expenditure:

    Based on the share of income spent on food, the NRVA ( National Risk andVulnerability Assessment), 2005 indicated that 36 percent of Afghan households havepoor food access, 26 percent have average access and 38 percent have good access

    27

    Table 17: Household Food Expenditure province-wise in 2005

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    Table 17: Household Food Expenditure province-wise in 2005Province

    % of Household

    Expenditure

    on food

    Province

    % of Household

    expenditure on food

    BADAKHSHAN 62 KUNAR 42BADGHIS 57 KUNDUZ 50

    BAGHLAN 68 LAGHMAN 58

    BALKH 61 LOGAR 47

    BAMYAN 54 NANGAHAR 51

    DAIKUNDI 57 NIMROZ 58

    FARAH 53 NURISTAN 37

    FARYAB 50 PAKTIKA 57

    GHAZNI 59 PAKTYA 53

    GHOR 58 PANJSHIR 75

    HILMAND 44 PARWAN 65

    HIRAT 58 SAMANGAN 54

    JAWZJAN 62 SAR-I-PUL 57

    KABUL 64 TAKHAR 58

    KANDAHAR 51 URUZGAN 40

    KAPISA 49 WARDAK 44

    KHOST 43 ZABUL 61

    Average 56Source: WFP, WHO and UNICEF Report, 2008

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    Food Consumption Classification

    Based on 2005 NRVA data, which took into consideration daily kilocalorieconsumption and dietary diversity, Afghan households were classifiedinto the following three categories:

    Very poor food consumption: 24% of the households are characterizedby very poor food consumption, meaning households consume onlycereals and oil on a daily basis;

    Borderline food consumption: 37% are characterized by borderline food

    consumption, meaning households mainly consume just two other foodgroups in addition to cereals and oil; and

    Better food consumption: 39 % have better food consumption

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    Group Household Food Security Level

    Percentage of

    households

    in each group

    Food Insecure

    Poor Food Consumption & Poor Food

    Access19

    Poor Food Consumption & Borderline Food

    Access9

    Border lineBorderline Food Consumption & Borderline

    Food Access33

    Food Secure

    Borderline Food Consumption & Better

    Food Access24

    Better Food Consumption & Better Food

    Access14

    Figure5: food security profile in Afghanistan by 2005

    Source: WFP, WHO and UNICEF Report, 2008 30

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    To identify the additional food insecure population the following four indicators

    were used:Food consumption

    Food Expenditure

    Source of foodChange in market price over the past 12 months.

    Based on the above indicators all Afghan districts were classified as following:

    Very high risk

    Districts with more than 50% of the population classified as having low dietary

    diversity/very poor food consumption

    Districts where households spend more than 60% of their income on food

    Districts where more than 60% of household food is purchased in markets

    Districts where there has been an increase in food prices (wheat flour) of more

    than 50%.

    High risk

    Districts with 25-50% of the population classified as having low dietary

    diversity/very poor food consumption

    Districts where households spend 50-60% of their income on food

    Districts where 50-60% of household food is purchased in markets

    Districts where there has been an increase in food prices (wheat flour) of 25-

    50%. 31

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    Medium risk

    Districts with 10-25% of the population classified as having low dietary diversity/very

    poor food consumption

    Districts where households spend 40-50% of their income on food

    Districts where 30-50% of household food is purchased in markets

    Districts where there has been an increase in food prices (wheat flour) of 10-25%.

    Low risk

    Districts with less than 10% of the population classified as having low dietarydiversity/very poor food consumption

    Districts where households spend less than 40% of their income on food

    Districts where the source of food is mainly from own production (ie less than 10% of

    food consumed is purchased in markets)

    Districts where there has been an increase in food prices (wheat flour) of less than

    10%.

    32

    Table 18: Food security classification by province

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    Table 18: Food security classification by provinceProvince

    % of Poor Food Consumption

    &

    Poor Food Access

    % of Poor Food Consumption

    &

    Borderline Food Access

    % of Borderline Food

    Consumption

    &

    Borderline Food Access

    % of Borderline Food

    Consumption

    &

    Better Food Access

    % of Better Food Consumption

    &

    Better Food Access

    BADAKHSHAN 28.9 12.8 31.8 18.9 7.6

    BADGHIS 14.6 20.4 22.6 26.3 16.1

    BAGHLAN 22.9 10.9 37.7 15.7 12.7

    BALKH 23.5 7.4 34.3 22.6 12.2

    BAMYAN 14.7 25.4 42.8 14 3.1

    DAIKUNDI 16.2 39.6 38.6 3.9 1.7

    FARAH 13.8 5.2 30.3 26.4 24.4

    FARYAB 16.4 2.4 28.2 35.3 17.7

    GHAZNI 30.1 16.1 28.1 19.2 6.6

    GHOR 31.1 23.3 31.7 11.4 2.5

    HILMAND 12.9 6.1 32.2 28.1 20.7

    HIRAT 17.7 8.5 41 22 10.7JAWZJAN 17.7 8.7 29.7 26.8 17.1

    KABUL 28.2 8 34.2 21.1 8.5

    KANDAHAR 18.8 8.4 31.4 28.3 13.1

    KAPISA 4.6 1.7 24.5 36.5 32.7

    KHOST 8.3 1.1 23 24.7 42.9

    KUNARHA 7 0.9 19.1 29.6 43.4

    KUNDUZ 8.6 2.6 31.7 28.9 28.1

    LAGHMAN 26.4 16.7 31.6 20.2 5.1

    LOGAR 12.1 1.3 28.2 33.5 24.9

    NANGARHAR 14.5 2.9 34 28.5 20NIMROZ 28 19.9 30.5 18.7 3

    NURISTAN 14.2 4.8 47.6 31.8 1.5

    PAKTIKA 26.7 5.5 36.9 21.6 9.4

    PAKTYA 19.6 4.1 38 31.4 6.8

    PANJSHIR 16.3 14.9 51.8 11 5.9

    PARWAN 6.6 4.8 52.1 18.1 18.4

    SAMANGAN 9.6 8.4 32.6 19.3 30.1

    SAR-I-PUL 22.2 4.4 29.6 25.8 18

    TAKHAR 24.3 9.5 29.3 23.3 13.6

    URUZGAN 14.2 13.1 34.5 27.8 10.4WARDAK 12.3 4.2 30.6 36.4 16.4

    ZABUL 26.1 26.3 22.3 24.2 1.1

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    Current food security conditions:In terms of food availability and access, the 2009/2010 hunger season looks

    optimistic in compared to the past nine years.

    Food availability is comparatively higher in 2009/2010 due to last years

    historically large harvest and generous food aid distribution. In addition, wheat

    prices continue to decrease against the fiveyear average and 2008s abnormally

    high wheat prices.

    Despite last years favorable conditions, the 2010 food security outlook does not

    look as optimistic because of poor climatic seasonal progress

    The prevalence of high temperatures in lowlands and low accumulation of snow

    during December and January raises concerns for the upcoming agriculturalseason.

    34

    Figure 6: Food security condition by province, 2010

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    g y y p ,

    Source :AFGHANISTAN Food Security Update , USAID, 201035

    BADGHIS

    FARAH

    BADAKHSHAN

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    Markets and trade of wheat and flour

    In comparison to this time last year, the January 2010 wheat market prices are

    lower by an average of 42 percent in all seven reference markets.In comparison to the fiveyear average, the January 2010 wheat market prices are

    lower by an average of 15 percent in all reference market

    The unseasonal reduction in January wheat prices likely reflects good marketaccessibility this year because of low snowpack.

    Typically this time of year, market access diminishes because of heavy snowfall and

    poor infrastructure.

    Other reasons such as adequate food supply in the market might also contribute to

    the lower prices.

    36

    Figure 7: Flour and Wheat Supplies in Afghanistan, Estimated Yearly Volumes,

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    g pp g y

    (in MT), 2004

    sours: Rubera Justin and others Market

    Sector Assessments SME Development,Altai consulting , 2005

    37

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    Source: Afghanistan Market Price Bulletin (March 2009)

    Figure 8 : wheat nominal retail prices in Kabul

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    Figure 9: wheat nominal retail in Mazar province

    Source: Afghanistan Market Price Bulletin

    (March 2009)

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    Conclusions and policy implication:

    Food crops are an import crops specially wheat, rice, and barley so there is a need toimprove the production and productivity to meet the domestic requirements

    However, Afghanistan is not self-sufficient in wheat and it imports a significant quantity offlour and wheat-based products.

    To become self sufficient in food production, cereal production must improve, especiallyfor wheat, which requires high-cost irrigation systems and technological support.

    Wheat is the most important crop, followed by barley, corn, and rice. Cotton is anotherimportant and widely cultivated crop.

    In comparison to hunger seasons for the past nine years, the 2009/2010 hunger seasonlooks optimistic in terms of food availability and food access.

    Food availability is comparatively higher in 2009/2010 due to the 2009 historical largeharvest and generous food aid distribution over the course of 2009.

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