PENURUNAN PRODUKSI TANAMAN DI DAERAH TROPIS AKIBAT PERUBAHAN IKLIM Proses Dan Ketidakpastian

A.J. Challinor a,*, T.R. Wheeler b

Present by : Ratri Noorhidayah 12/341005/PPN/)3763PENURUNAN PRODUKSI TANAMAN DI DAERAH TROPIS AKIBAT PERUBAHAN IKLIMProses Dan Ketidakpastian

Pendahuluan Perubahan iklim memiliki dampak langsung dan tidak langsung terhadap pertumbuhan tanamandan pembangunan. Konsentrasi CO2 tinggiTanaman C3 : Fotosintesis dan efesiensi air tinggiperubahan rerata variabilitas suhuatau curah hujan1. suhu ekstrim mengurangi jumlah gabah atau benihmempengaruhi potensi evapotranspirasi makin tinggiperubahan iklim menyebabkan ketidak pastian produksi tanaman yang signifikan+-TUJUAN PENELITIAN :METODE GLAM (Challinor, 2003)The General Large-Area Model for annual crops (GLAM) is a tool for assessing the impacts of climate variability and change on annual crops. It has been designed for use with regional and global climate model output and remotely sensedGLAM employs crop and climate science, as well as numerical modelling methods of carefully-chosen complexityGLAM is able to simulate interannual variability in crop yield (Figure 1), as well as picking out areas where climate extremes are likely to affect crops and assessing how a change in crop variety can be used to adapt to these changes (Figure 2). GLAM is often used with ensemble techniques, to produce seasonal hindcasts of crop yield (e.g. Challinor et al., 2005a) and to quantify the uncertainty associated with climate change (e.g. Challinor et at., 2009c)

Output GLAM methodsThe impacts of extremes of temperature during anthesis in GLAM, for the A2 scenario for 2071-2100, using parameters and data from Challinor et al. (2005b,2007). Colours indicate the number of years when the total number of pods setting is below 50%, due to a high temperature threshold event during anthesis. The simulation tolerant crop simulation has not only a smaller area affected, but also a smaller magnitude of impactSensitiv varTolerran var