paving the way for rajapaksa renaissance
TRANSCRIPT
Paving the way for Rajapaksa renaissancelogoThursday, 11 June 2015Every distraction, legislative or otherwise, that delays a Parliamentary poll invariably plays into Mahinda Rajapaksas hands. A polling date set after the UN investigation report is made public likely in mid-August could prove the final trump the Rajapaksas need to make a comeback
A-ratanapuraFormer President Mahinda Rajapaksa at a recent rally
Former Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa, arguably the
previous regimes most powerful man, may be under fire from a
plethora of investigations into procurements and dealings during
his tenure as chief accounting officer for the Ministry of Defence.
But nearly six months after his brothers stunning election defeat
rendered him jobless and without immunity, some of the bravado
appears to be returning. The former Presidents favourite younger
brother is stepping out of the shadows again, as the former ruling
familys political machinery kicks back into gear for another
crucial election battle.
Colombos ranking by the MasterCard Global Destinations Index 2015
as the worlds fastest growing city for tourism led to a series of
postings on the ex-officials official Facebook page. Over the next
few weeks, I look forward to sharing some thoughts on this site
about the urban development work carried out by the previous
Government between the end of the conflict and January 2015, the
former Defence Secretary said in his Facebook posting.
A few days ago, looking casual in a t-shirt at his Nugegoda
residence, with a large portrait of President Rajapaksa and a
bronze sculpture of Avalokatheshwara at his side, Gotabaya
Rajapaksa spoke to a private television station that was
highlighting the achievement. During the interview, he warned
against squandering the development successes in Colombo by the
failure to maintain his parks, jogging tracks and shopping
precincts that best serve the capitals upper middle classes.
The Rajapaksa brothers, who held Sri Lanka in authoritarian thrall
for nine long years, fancy themselves great statesmen. Gotabaya
Rajapaksa speaks with rehearsed eloquence about the defeat of
terrorism and his efforts to transform Colombo into a modern and
liveable city. The reality is much darker. Like all Rajapaksa
regime good works, the development of the capital, under the former
Defence Secretarys watchful eye, had an ugly underbelly.
Thousands of Colombo residents were forcibly evicted, their homes
razed and livelihoods destroyed when the former Defence Secretary
began his beautification drive in the city. Backhoes demolished
low-income housing settlements while military personnel
threateningly observed the process. When residents kicked up a fuss
and argued with the authorities, leading members of that community
were abducted by white van. A suppliant Supreme Court had removed
all hope of redress for the victims of an urban beautification
drive.
sdasasWhen Gotabaya Rajapaksa complains about the awful state of
his beloved urban parks and jogging tracks, its easy to forget that
he used thousands of armed forces personnel to sweep and maintain
his special projects. Under Secretary Rajapaksa, Sri Lanka became
one of the only countries since the end of World War II to swell
the ranks of its military rather than demobilise after the end of a
conflict. No longer fighting LTTE separatists in the north and
east, 300,000 military personnel had to be gainfully employed. From
celebrated war heroes and humane patriots, they became
road-sweepers, waiters and janitors, almost invisible and
constantly confronted by the opulence of the middle classes,
revelling in the pleasures of post-war Colombo.
Ironically, while the Rajapaksa regime was intent on building a
powerful military state, these frustrations in the military rank
and file contributed to their defeat earlier this year. President
Rajapaksa lost the island-wide postal vote on 8 January, the early
ballots cast by public servants and military personnel serving
outside their home electorates. As far as the ordinary soldier is
concerned, the decision appears to have paid off.
Long and painfulroad to democratisation
President Maithripala Sirisena delivered on his election promise to
restore dignity to the armed forces and ensure they do not remain
slaves to the wealthy classes. Today city clean-up has been
entrusted again to the municipal worker, prone to strikes and
lethargy. Yet the Sirisena administration appears to have decided
that the odd stray leaf on a jogging track or a less than perfectly
manicured lawn is worth all that has been reclaimed since 8
January. Extricating the military shadow from every area of
civilian life and rebuilding institutions has been a work in
progress over the past six months, but it remains a cornerstone of
the re-democratisation process undertaken since the defeat of the
Rajapaksa regime.
Obviously this irks the former Defence Secretary and other top
members of the ex-regime, who view the process to restore
independence to State institutions and confine the military to
barracks as an attempt to dismantle the powerful military state
that was under construction. Yet even they know that strong
institutions cannot be rebuilt in six months, after they have been
under assault for the better part of nine years. Half-a-year after
the election, with their policy to refrain from purging
institutions of officials loyal to the Rajapaksa ruling cabal, the
new Government is only just scratching the surface of what will be
a long and painful process. The Rajapaksas realise therefore that
reassembling their preferred version of the State is only one
crucial election away.
So the former ruling family is refusing to go down without a fight.
Corruption investigations may keep the ex-regimes misdeeds alive
and well in public memory, but the Rajapaksa camp are hoping to be
restored to power by appealing to the peoples more tribal
instincts. For four months after the election, President Rajapaksa
licked his wounds in private, allowing the movement calling for his
return to power to gather quiet momentum. He contented himself with
playing puppeteer and watching members of his former ruling
alliance wreak havoc in Parliament to scuttle the new Governments
reform agenda. In this the UPFA rebels from the Mahinda camp found
great allies in the old guard SLFP, which held a gun to the head of
the minority UNP Government and forced dilution of the 19th
Amendment to the Constitution, which aimed to reduce presidential
powers and restore independence to key State institutions.
Untitled-1A similar hostage-taking situation is already building
around the 20th Amendment, which is set to be gazetted tomorrow
(12) after the Cabinet this week approved Prime Minister Ranil
Wickremesinghes formula for electoral reform. UPFA General
Secretary Susil Premajayanth, whose allegiances have recently been
in question, has already indicated that the Opposition disagrees
with the reform proposal in its current form and will insist upon
amendments. It remains to be seen if President Sirisena will permit
the UPFA and his own SLFP to strong-arm his administration once
more, imposing its will by force through its huge majority when the
amendment comes up for debate in Parliament.
Dissolution delays
The UPFA strong-arm tactics, buttressed by SLFP support and
President Sirisenas desire to conduct the business of governance
through consensus, has significantly strengthened the Rajapaksa
hand. The mandate for President Sirisenas 100-day programme of work
ended on 23 April, nearly two months ago. The 19th Amendment was
passed one week behind that deadline, but not even the fulfilment
of that crucial election promise led to the dissolution of
Parliament and the end of the UNP-led minority Government. In fact,
during the battle for the passage of 19A, President Sirisena
brokered a compromise with the SLFP to secure their crucial votes
to enact the amendment, by pledging to pass the 20th Amendment on
electoral reform before the tenure of the current Parliament came
to an end.
Nearly two months later, President Sirisenas minority Government
faces another battle royale over 20A, this time poised for a fight
with not only the SLFP and the Mahinda faction of the UPFA, but
also minor parties that view the draft amendment as inimical to
their political interests. To compound matters, the UPFA has flexed
its muscles once more with a no-confidence motion against Prime
Minister Wickremesinghe submitted to the Speaker, already holding
the signatures of 112 MPs, only one short of a simple
majority.
While this drama unfolds between the Sirisena administration and
the official Opposition, and with the UNP heavily preoccupied with
matters of governance and kick-starting its own election machinery,
the former President has been quietly stepping into the light. The
distractions of Parliamentary battles and President Sirisenas
decision to delay calling elections to placate his own party have
created the space necessary for the Rajapaksa faction to mobilise
and convince their star candidate to step into the fray. Today, the
former President has media spokesmen and a well-oiled propaganda
machinery all set to get back to work. Offices and staff are being
set up to conduct strategic planning for the Rajapaksa
rebirth.
Untitled-2Renaissance man
Where once he was a no-show at rallies calling for his return or he
sent notes to be read out to his supporters, today President
Rajapaksa rarely misses an opportunity to take centre-stage. Daily
visits to temples have become media feeding frenzies. And this
week, in the guise of commemorating former SLFP Minister C.V.
Gooneratne who was killed by the LTTE in 2001, President Rajapaksa
held a large meeting in Dehiwala where he raged against the present
Government for squandering the war victory.
The meeting was widely publicised, with large hoardings and posters
all over the city, indicating that the Rajapaksa spending power
remains intact. Powerful players, in the form of foreign
governments and interested businessmen, are reported to be
bankrolling the campaign to return President Rajapaksa to power.
Fear-mongering about concessions to the Tamils and the Muslims has
continued apace since the conclusion of the presidential election,
and the new Government is also consistently accused of being the
pawn of Western Governments.
With the lines blurred between Government and Opposition in the
current Parliament, Mahinda Rajapaksa remains the most existential
threat to the present administration. It is their tribal, Sinhala
hegemonic vision for Sri Lanka that is the ideology constantly
juxtaposed against the Sirisena administrations more liberal
attitudes and benevolence towards the minorities. In a murky
political landscape, the Rajapaksa coterie, their relatives and
cronies, have unwittingly emerged as the true alternative to the
yahapalanaya Government. Entrenched one way or the other in the
Sirisena camp, the SLFP, JVP and JHU fail to offer a real
difference from the present status quo.
This is not to say that the Sirisena administration is suffering a
massive erosion of popular support, but simply that it is not the
SLFP which will obtain the lion share of Mahinda Rajapaksas 58
lakhs but Mahinda Rajapaksa himself, should he contest, or possibly
an alliance to which he extends his public support. With questions
being raised about Premajayanths loyalties to the Sirisena camp,
the Mahinda faction may even have the option of contesting under
the betel leaf, a symbol that has become synonymous with Rajapaksa
leadership of the SLFP-led UPFA coalition. As General Secretary of
the UPFA, Premajayanth is the custodian of the UPFA registration
and symbol. For the Mahinda camp, winning his support could mean
the difference between fielding candidates under the familiar betel
leaf symbol that has been tremendously successful for the Rajapaksa
regime until 8 January, or registering an all-new party to contest
the parliamentary polls.
The Rajapaksatrump card
Any decision by President Sirisena to further delay the dissolution
of Parliament and the calling of fresh elections will continue to
give the Rajapaksa camp an organisational advantage. With the stage
being set for Mahinda Rajapaksa to enter the election fray, he will
need only one powerful catalyst to push him over the edge.
If election dates are set for any later than end July, this
catalyst could come by way of the UN probe report on allegations of
war crimes committed during the last days of the war. The report is
due to be released during the UN Human Rights Council sessions in
Geneva in September. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights
promised in February that the deferral of the investigation report
would be one-time only, indicating that his office would not offer
the Sri Lankan Government any further reprieve. With UNHRC
September sessions commencing on 14 September, the report is likely
to be delivered to the Permanent Mission of Sri Lanka to the UN in
Geneva by mid-August, to allow the Government time to draft a
response. Unofficially released copies of the report therefore, are
likely to be in circulation by August.
The additional six months granted to investigators to fine-tune the
report that was initially due for release in March 2015 may have
made the document more coherent and comprehensive, sources with
knowledge of the drafting process told the Daily FT. There also
appears to be certainty that several names at least 40 will be
cited in the UN report, and many of these could be command-level
officials actively involved in the final battles in 2009.
If the UN names Sri Lankas decorated soldiers and commanding
officers as war criminals in its report, this puts President
Sirisena and the UNP Government badly on the back-foot, since it
has made no secret of its re-alignment with the same Western
Governments which have led the accountability charge against Sri
Lanka over the past three years. If polls dates are set after the
report is leaked or made public, it could assist the Rajapaksa camp
to ramp up mass hysteria about international trials for military
top brass and a betrayal of the armed forces by the sell-out
Sirisena Government.Untitled-3
In effect, an election date set after the UN report enters the
public sphere will be tantamount to offering Mahinda Rajapaksa his
greatest trump card on a silver platter, and snatch victory away
from the UNP and the more moderate SLFP led by President Sirisena.
Both these factions will be painted as traitors by the war-winning
ex-President.
Yet, for President Sirisena, keeping his word to the SLFP about 20A
appears to supersede all these considerations. By trying to win
over the SLFP, the President could be hoping to avoid a situation
in which his faction of the SLFP comes in third, behind the UNP and
the Rajapaksa faction in an electoral contest. The policy of
appeasement could also be aimed at buying time to change hearts and
minds within his own party, a feat that has proved extraordinarily
challenging for the President over the past several months.
UNP vs. SLFP
His problems are compounded by the fact that the national
government concept that led to the inclusion of 30 SLFPers in the
UNP-led Cabinet of Ministers has proved an abject failure. Even
though Prime Minister Wickremesinghe has repeatedly asserted the
dire need for a unity government even after the next Parliamentary
election, it is clear he and other UNP ministers have failed to
create and nurture an inclusive Cabinet of rivals. Perhaps this is
only natural.
The SLFP has made no secret of its disdain for Wickremesinghe and
his role as an unelected Prime Minister. Painted into a corner by a
massive UPFA majority and repeated efforts by the SLFP-led alliance
to scuttle the Governments reforms, Wickremesinghe has failed to
engage constructively with SLFP members within the Cabinet. This
has led, over the past several months, to a tragic breakdown in
trust and public outbursts against Wickremesinghe by his Cabinet
colleagues hailing from the SLFP.
Parochial attitudes persist in both the UNP and the SLFP,
preventing genuine consensus and a desire on the part of the
countrys two main political parties to work together towards a
common, people-oriented agenda. Not much has changed since the UNP
tore up copies of the 2000 Draft Constitution tabled by then
President Chandrika Kumaratunga, to prevent the SLFP from getting
credit for ushering in the most progressive constitutional change
in Sri Lankas recent history. Todays SLFP is finding it equally
difficult to cede control to the UNP, which has the most recent
mandate to govern, while the blues still hold a thumping majority
in Parliament.
So powerful is this traditional rivalry between the greens and the
blues that the SLFP will opt to back Mahinda Rajapaksa, the man who
single-handedly brought the SLFP to the brink of racism and ruin
over nine long years, if it means it can thwart the UNPs quest for
political power. Nor can the UNP opt to work with the SLFP in a
constructive way, even if it is the best way to neutralise the
Rajapaksa faction.
Naturally, the Rajapaksa camp is beginning to look like the only
winners in this political game.Posted byThavam