paulo leitao mercurio capital ltd business mathematics made simple 1
TRANSCRIPT
1
Paulo LeitaoMercurio Capital Ltd
Business Mathematics Made Simple
Industrial sector economics and the wealth
of nations
2
We will cover
• (15 -20 minutes presentation)• Overview industrial production in different
countries• Capital Intensive (high Capex) – the basics• Cost of equity• Conclusion• Q&A (20-25 minutes)• Ask for footnotes
3
Natural resources make a country rich. Capital intensive sectors are old-fashioned. Investors can make more money in digital
economy than in heavy industry. Germany is very successfull with their
industrial and manufacturing sector. UK economy will never have a strong
industrial sector.
Agree/disagree?
4
UK auto industry exports more cars than it imports. Last time this happened:1976
UK place in world Industrial production 1895: 1st (15%) UK place in world Industrial production 2015: 9th (2.3%)
Labour force in manufacturing: China: 100 million UK: 2.3 million
UK industrial success stories: Automotive Food & Drink Pharmaceutical Semiconductors Aerospace and defense
Some numbers...
5
Germany’s industrial sector weight on GDP: 29,1% (25,1% industry, 4% construction)
UK’s industrial sector weight on GDP: 21% (14,6% industry, 6,4% construction)
This difference in numbers...GDP difference impact between 25,1 and 14,6: £ 192 billion*Jobs: 612.000 extra jobs**Would make the UK 5th largest in World GDP, from 6th***
* UK GDP 1.832 trillion X 10,5% (25,1-14,6) = 192 billion**(Labour fource 31 million X 18,8% industry related jobs) * 10,5%*** World Bank, United Nations, CIA Wold Factbook data
Comparison between Germany and UK industrial sector weight on GDP
6
Everything is produced in China, nothing is produced in the UK. UK industrial components are often buried somewhere in an end-consumer product, with
final assembly in China.
Industrial units are big polluters of the environment. Potentially a fact.
“EU red tape” hinders and limits UK businesses. The Manufacturers Organisation (www.eef.org) manifesto includes campaigning to stay in
the EU.
Public cash help doesn’t make a difference when financing industrial “high risk” projects. Government “Business Finance Partnership” program has helped create £ 5 of lending for
each £ 1 of government guarantees*.
There’s financial resources competition between different sectors of the economy. Potentially a fact. Finance and construction seem to be linked, seeking “low risk”
investments rather than industrial “high risk”.
“Continental style” of capitalism provides better ecosystem for long-term industrial investments.
Anglo-Saxon style of capitalism led industrial production for most of last century (UK, USA).
Fact or Fiction?
*https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/business-finance-partnership-activity-report
7
Capital intensive (high Capex) - basics
8
Capital Intensive (HIGH CAPEX) versus
“cash-light” sectors
High Capex – low Opex/Low Capex – high Opex Liquidity premium (business plan and business
model lack of flexibility) Sensitivity to country/national risk
9
Two typical capital intensive premiums
Liquidity Premium
Square root to payback and/or breakeven in years: (Initial
investment – salvage value)
Country Risk Premiums
Economist Intelligence Unit Country Risk
Reports (score system):
Standard & Poors Sovereign 10-year
yields
10-year Sovereign bond yield
%100scorecountryhome
scorecountryhomescorecountryndestinatioX
1cos
cos1
lifeproject
tasset
valuescraplesstasset
10
Biggest risk: Feasibility & Capital Budgeting events
Time1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
ReturnRisk
Licensing Build Operation
Biggest Strength: High entry barriers to competitors
The biggest risk and the biggest strength of capital intensive investments
11
Project Finance as a typical industrial financial design
Project is the guarantee, not the company’s balance sheet or the director’s equity.
Locking the Risk: Income streams Futures Interest rates Swaps Currency forwards
Long term offtake contracts (5 to 20 years).
12
Cost of Equity
13
Cost of Equity
Return needed to keep the equity in the company
Intrinsic Risk & External non-controllable variables
Business Risk + Liquidity + Country Risk Main challenges with Equity:
Not visible (not cash/accounting cost)
Measured indirectly (Mkt multiples,Quantitative Methods, Benchmarking, Ungeared Beta, etc)
For private companies, more difficult to measure
14
How does Cost of Equity climb/decrease?
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Seed
Startup
Early Growth
Late Expansion
IPOMature
Cost of Equity (Required Rate
ofReturn)
Time
Event drivenTIO“T” - Technology“I” - Implementation“O” - Operation
Build
Present value
Future value
20% 20% 20% 20% 100 120 144 173 207 207
10% 8% 6% 4% 100 110 119 126 131 131
Purely financial dynamic: time
sensitivity
15
Financial design - Cost of Equity – for capital intensive projects
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Licensing
Business Premium
Build
Business Premium
StartUp
BP BP BPBP
BPBP BP BP BP BPBP
LiquidityPremium
LP LP LP LP LP LP
Country Premium
CP CP CP CP CP CP CP CP CP CP CP
EXIT Sweet SpotUncertainty
Years
16
Conclusion
17
Management Go/NoGo decision & “Design freeze”
Investment logic & capital
structure
Capital Budgeting
Operational logic
What are the ingredients of a successful industrial project decision making?
18
Natural resources make a country rich. Capital intensive sectors are old-fashioned. Investors can make more money in digital
economy than in heavy industry. Germany is very successfull with their
industrial and manufacturing sector. UK economy will never have a strong
industrial sector.
Agree/disagree?
19
Thank you!
Mercurio Capital Ltdwww.mercurio-capital.com
Follow us on Twitter! (Business Mathematics) https://twitter.com/MercurioCapital
LinkedIn Group (Business Mathematics Made Simple)