Paul English, PhD MPH

Population Vulnerabilities for Climate Change Health Risks

Paul English PhD, MPH

Vulnerability

Vulnerability to climate change is “the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change.” (Füssel and Klein, 2006)

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Community’s overall vulnerability• Exposure: Changing environment due

to global warming

• Population characteristics/Sensitivity (e.g. age, pre-existing disease)

• Adaptive capacity :– Community Resilience (Resources)

– Response Capacity: Capacity of public health and emergency response infrastructure

Population Sensitivity Varies by Climate Health Threat

Heat:– Elderly, Medical compromised, Social Isolation, Children,

low income, occupational

Flooding/Extreme events: – Elderly, low-income, homeless, disabled, lack of

transportation, obese, co-morbid

Drought:– dialysis patients, elderly, pregnant and nursing women,

infants, immunocompromised individuals

Vulnerability Assessment in BRACE• Statewide vulnerability data will be used to develop

vulnerability indicators and maps for all census tracts in California

• A more detailed vulnerability assessment will be done in at least one county from each of the ten multi-county regions.

• Assessments will use 2000 as a baseline and we will make estimates for each decade up to 2040 and a final statewide assessment at 2099.

• For each assessment, we will use projected demographic data and projected climate change data (sea level rise, wildfire risk, and extreme heat days).

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment*

• Data were ranked by quintiles and mapped for census tracts; Final vulnerability score a sum & re-ranking across all metric ranks

* English et al, Intl J Climate Change, 2013

Metric Source

Central air conditioning CA Energy Commission (2009)

Tree canopy National Land Cover Database (2001)

Impervious surface National Land Cover Database (2001)

Public transit routes SCAG 2011; Fresno COG 2011

Elderly living alone Census 2000

Household car access Census 2000

Wildfire risk CAL FIRE 2003

Flood risk FEMA (Fresno 2009; LA 2008)

Sea rise inundation Pacific Institute 2009 (LA only)

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LA County Climate Change Vulnerability

Proportion of households with central AC

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LA County Climate Change Vulnerability

Final CDPH Climate Scores

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LA County (including residential & sensitive populations land use mask)

Final CDPH Climate Scores

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Final CDPH Climate Scores + Cumulative Impacts ScoreLA County (including residential & sensitive populations land use mask)

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46% of African Americans and 36% of Latinos reside in the two highest risk categories

compared to 30% of whites

Los Angeles County

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In LA County, median income in the highest risk area is 40% lower than the lowest risk area

Questions• What LHD staff & programs / policy

leaders/ partners/ stakeholders will you share this with; and how and in what context or venue will you present it; get feedback; and adapt and update it as new information is available?

•  Will you engage vulnerable populations directly or work with partners for community -based input on the maps and report?

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