The Red Roadmaster’s US Market Monthly Re-cap + Stock Talk ™

22 March 2010 Date Line: Hong Kong (SAR) China

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Red’s Bull Alert: The DJIA and the S&P 500 are tapping up against levels last seen in October 2009, on the rebound from a mid-January sell-off that sent the S&P 500 down 8.1% through early February from the 15-month high of January 19, and last week it broke out of its Key overhead resistance at 1,150.

Re-cap of the US Stock Market Action for the Week ending 18 March 2010

On the Day: Wall Street edged lower Friday. The DJIA lost 26.60 pts, or 0.25%, to close at 10,752.57, the S&P 500 gave up 4.78 pts, or 0.41%, to close at 1,161.05, and the NAS tallied up a minus 15.13 pts, or 0.63%, to end the session at 2,376.15.

On the Week: The S&P 500 is now up 71 percent from the March 9, 2009 bottom, and scored a 0.9% gain on the week. The DJIA rose 1.1% on the week, as did the NAS by 0.3%.

Quadruple Witching Explained (Short): Friday marked the 2nd day of a convergence known as Quadruple Witching, when 4 types of options and futures contracts expire, often triggering volatility and higher volumes. Contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures all expire during the session.

In this instance the QW drove both trade volume and volatility sharply higher, as trade volume on the NYSE hit its highest level of the year as nearly 2B/shrs exchanged hands, and the Volatility Index (VIX) fell 1% in the opening minutes of the session to a 52-week low, but then spiked North to a gain of more than 5% before it closed the day with a 2.2% increase.

A stronger USD dampened the mood on the Street Friday as the “Greenback” gained 0.6% against the other Key currencies on the day. That on top of its 0.7% advance in Thursday’s session combining for the US$’s best back to back action since January. The USD’s recent strength comes amid continued headlines about proposed financial support for Greece.

Gains by the “Greenback” dragged down commodities Friday, such that the CRB Commodity Index fell to a 1.1% loss. Contracts for Crude Oil closed trade with priced 1.8% lower at US$80.68 bbl. Some additional pressure came on the precious metals on news that India's central bank increased the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.0% and its reverse repo rate by 25 bps to 3.5%. Gold prices closed minus 1.8% at US$1107.60 oz, and Silver settled the session 2.2% lower at US$17.03 oz..

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The confluence of weaker commodity prices and broader market pressure made natural resource plays this session's worst performers, a the materials sector dropped 1.0%, and the energy sector fell 0.9%.

The EU’s monetary affairs chief urged leaders to agree on a standby aid package for Greece next week, investors are fearful of German reluctance might hinder the effort, not really likely though IMO.

In the coming week, housing will be a Key theme with the release of February existing home sales Tuesday and a report on February new home sales Wednesday.

The US Congressional vote to overhaul the US healthcare system will keep health sector stocks in focus next week.

Players will pay close attention to home sales because the housing sector is struggling with a tide of foreclosures after the sub-prime mortgage crisis that surfaced in Y 2007. A stronger housing market is crucial to the US economy's health.

On Friday, the focus will turn to the government's final reading on Q-4 gross domestic product and the final word on March consumer sentiment from the Reuters/University of Michigan surveys.

Advancing Sectors: Telecom (+0.4%)

Declining Sectors: Materials (-1.0%), Energy (-0.9%), Tech (-0.8%), Financials (-0.7%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.6%), Industrials (-0.4%), Utilities (-0.2%), Consumer Staples (-0.1%)

Unchanged: Health Care

Volume and Breadth: Trade has been thin during the week and volatility has dropped considerably, with the CBOE Volatility Index .VIX down roughly 5 percent this week and hitting its lowest mark since May 2008.

   Market Indexes Technical Analysis

Date Symbol Price Technical Analysis Support Resistance

Mar-19-2010 QQQQ 47.49 Bullish (0.29) 46.56 47.50

Mar-19-2010 DIA 107.34 Neutral (0.19) 107.16 108.45

Mar-19-2010 SPY 115.97 Neutral (0.20) 115.07 116.28

      Market Indexes Technical Analysis

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Major companies tentatively scheduled to report quarterly earnings this week:

Monday Tiffany & Co. releases quarterly financial results.

Tuesday Adobe Systems Inc. releases quarterly financial results, Carnival Corp. releases quarterly financial results, KB Home releases quarterly financial results and Walgreen Co. releases quarterly financial results.

Wednesday General Mills Inc. releases quarterly financial results. Lennar Corp. releases quarterly financial results.

Thursday: Best Buy Co. releases quarterly financial results, ConAgra Foods Inc. releases quarterly financial results, and,

Friday: Oracle Corp. releases quarterly financial results.

                                           Stocks to Watch Today

General Mills, Inc. (GIS), KB Homes (KBH), Tiffany & Company (TIF), W Walgreen Co. (WAG), and Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM).

Mini Gold Report

Gold futures on the COMEX Division of the New York Merc went down Friday on uncertainty about Greek debt crisis helped lift the USD higher, Sliver and Platinum followed Gold South.

The most active Gold contract for April delivery declined US$19.9, or 1.8 percent, to close at US$1,107.6 oz.

The US Dollar Index, a gauge measuring the greenback's value against major currencies, soared 0.6% in the morning trading. Gold moves inversely against USD as players generally purchase the yellow metal, priced in USDs, to hedge against declines in the US currency.

May Silver dropped 39c to US$17.032 oz, and April Platinum declined US$22.4 to US$1,608.6 oz.

Mini Crude Oil Report

Crude futures fell Friday as the USD rose against the EUR, as India raised interest rate unexpectedly.

Commodities fell after India's Central Bank raised interest rates unexpectedly. India's central bank hiked its Key borrowing and lending rates by 0.25 bp.

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Light, Sweet Crude Oil for April delivery fell US$1.52 to US$80.68bbl on the New York Merc. In London, Brent Crude for May delivery fell US$1.60 to US$79.88 bbl.

General Mills, Inc. (GIS) Up-date 2 Last Look: September 24, 2009

March 22, 2010

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst

Dear Reader,

Let’s have a look at General Mills, Inc. (GIS), America’s # 2 cereal maker, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Friday (March 19) market action, are Bullish; in the near term Bullish, mid-term Bullish, and long term Very Bullish. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Bearish

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

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Latest News and Opinion: Kellogg's Stock Could Pop

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB126886045494663709.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoobarrons

Friday’s Market Action Close 73.34 -. 30 Volume 2,769,400shrs

There is a Bearish Harami on March 17, and now Gaps open up or down on the chart, the near term resistance is 75.21, support is 72.42, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 71.44.

This is General Mills Inc. (GIS): The Company manufactures and markets branded and packaged consumer foods worldwide. The company also supplies branded and unbranded food products to the foodservice and commercial baking industries. Its products include ready-to-eat cereals, refrigerated yogurt, ready-to-serve soup, dry dinners, shelf stable and frozen vegetables, refrigerated and frozen dough products, dessert and baking mixes, and frozen pizza and pizza snacks. The company also provides grain, fruit, and savory snacks; various organic products, including soup, granola bars, and cereal; fruit and nut energy bars; and ice cream and frozen desserts. It serves grocery stores, mass merchandisers, membership stores, natural food chains, commercial and noncommercial foodservice distributors and operators, restaurants, and convenience stores, as well as drug, dollar, and discount chains. The company was founded in 1928 and is based in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Competitive Landscape

Demand is related to eating trends and to the changing structure of the grocery industry. Profitability for individual companies is determined by efficiency of operations. Large companies have scale advantages in procurement, production, and distribution. Small companies can compete by offering specialty goods or superior local distribution services. Despite high automation, the low value of the product produces a fairly modest US$150,000 in annual revenue per employee for commercial bakers.

Bakeries Industry ForecastThe output for US bakery and pasta products is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 2% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2009

General Mills Inc. (HQ)

Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer and President: Kendall J. Powell

One General Mills BoulevardMinneapolis, MN 55426United StatesPhone: 763-764-7600Fax: 763-540-4925

http://www.generalmills.com

General Mills Subsidiaries

Medallion LaboratoriesSmall Planet Foods, Inc.

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KB Homes (KBH) Up-date 1 Last Look: December 23, 2009

March 22, 2010

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst

Today, let’s look at KB Homes (KBH), the Built to Order US home builder, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Friday’s (March 19) market action, are Neutral in the near term Bearish, mid-term Neutral, and long term Bearish. The recent Candle Stick analysis: Very Bearish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

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Latest News and Opinion: Stocks eye health reform, housing, Greece

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-eye-health-reform-rb-73131493.html?x=0&.v=2

Friday’s Market Action Close 17.33 - .31 Volume 2,480,600/shrs

There is a Bearish Engulfing Candle on March 19, and no Gaps open up or down on the Chart, the near term resistance is 17.46, support at 17.21, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 16.33.

This is KB Homes (KBH): The company markets homes under its Built to Order brand, allowing buyers to customize their homes through KB Home Studio. The program lets customers choose from thousands of options to be included in the construction of their new homes. The company also has branding deals with Martha Stewart and the Walt Disney Company. KB Home offers financing, mortgage assistance, and home insurance through Bank of America.

Competitive Landscape

Demand depends heavily on the health of the US economy, including corporate profits and local government budgets. The profitability of individual companies depends on accurate project bids and efficient operations. Large companies have advantages in their ability to engage in multiple projects simultaneously and in many types of construction. Small companies can compete effectively by specializing, working in a limited geography, or serving as subcontractors on larger projects. Average annual revenue per industry worker is US$290,000. Data sourced: December 2009.

KB Home (HQ)

Jeffrey Mezger, Chief Exec. Officer, and President

10990 Wilshire BoulevardLos Angeles, CA 90024United StatesPhone: 310-231-4000Fax: 310-231-4222

http://www.kbhome.com

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Walgreen Co. (WAG) Up-date 1 Last Look: September 30, 2009

March 22, 2010

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst

Today, let’s look at Walgreen Co. (WAG), the operator of a chain of drugstores in the USA, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Friday’s (March 19) market action, are Bearish: in the near term Bearish, mid-term Bearish, and long term Bearish. The recent Candlestick analysis is: Very Bearish

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News and Opinion: Health care stocks are ready to shine. Here's where it's sunny now.

http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/20/teva-pharmaceutical-generic-intelligent-investing-healthcare-bill.html?partner=yahootix

Friday’s Market Action Close 34.53 - 29 Volume 9,662,500/shrs

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There is a Bearish Harami on March 19, and now Gaps open up on the Chart, the near term resistance is 34.92, support at 34.51, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 35.27.

This is Walgreen Co. (WAG): The company operates a chain of drugstores in the United States. These drugstores sell prescription and non-prescription drugs, and general merchandise. Its general merchandise comprises beauty care, personal care, household items, candy, photofinishing, greeting cards, seasonal items, and convenience food. The company provides its services through drugstore counters, as well as through mail, by telephone, and on the Internet. As of August 31, 2008, Walgreen operated 6,934 locations, which include 6,443 drugstores, 364 worksite facilities, 115 home care facilities, 10 specialty pharmacies, and 2 mail service facilities in 49 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Guam. It also owned 28 strip shopping malls. The company was founded in 1901 and is based in Deerfield, Illinois.

Competitive Landscape

Demand is driven by the aging of the US population and advances in medical treatment. The profitability of individual companies depends on access to medical insurance groups. Large companies have economies of scale in purchasing and in access to large groups of customers. Small companies can compete effectively through convenient location or special merchandising.

Drugstores Industry ForecastUS personal consumption expenditures for drug preparations and sundries, which are major indicators for drug stores, are forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 7% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2009

Walgreen Co. (HQ)

 Gregory D. Wasson R.ph, Chief Exec. Officer, Pres, Chief Operating Officer

200 Wilmot RoadDeerfield, IL 60015United States Phone: 847-914-2500Fax: 847-914-2804

http://www.walgreens.com

Williams-Sonoma (WSM) Up-date 2 Last Look: January 15, 2010

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March 21, 2010

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst

Today, let’s look at Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM), a US specialty retailer of Epicurean home products, from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Friday’s (March 21) market action is Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Neutral and long term Neutral. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Neutral

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News and Opinion: Williams-Sonoma, Tiffany, Phillips-Van Heusen

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-in-focus-for-monday-2010-03-19?siteid=yhoof

Friday’s Market Action Close 24.14 -.31 Volume 2,264,600/shrs

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There is a Bullish Engulfing Candle on March 16 and no Gaps open up or down on the Chart, the near term resistance is 24.69, support at 23.21, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 22.01.

This is Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM): The Company operates as a specialty retailer of home products. It offers culinary and serving equipment, including cookware, cookbooks, cutlery, informal dinnerware, glassware, table linens, and specialty foods and cooking ingredients; and bridal and gift items under the Williams-Sonoma brand. The company also provides home furnishing products comprising furniture, textiles, decorative accessories, and lighting and tabletop items under the West Elm brand; bed and bath products under the Pottery Barn brand; and children’s furnishings and accessories under the Pottery Barn Kids brand name. Williams-Sonoma, Inc. also sells its home products through its seven direct-mail catalogs, which comprise Williams-Sonoma, Pottery Barn, Pottery Barn Kids, Pottery Barn Bed and Bath, PBteen, West Elm, and Williams-Sonoma Home; and six e-commerce Web sites, including williams-sonoma.com, potterybarn.com, potterybarnkids.com, pbteen.com, westelm.com, and wshome.com. As of February 1, 2009, the company operated 627 retail stores, including 264 Williams-Sonoma, 204 Pottery Barn, 95 Pottery Barn Kids, 36 West Elm, 10 Williams-Sonoma Home, and 18 outlet stores in 44 states of the United States, Washington, D.C., Canada, and Puerto Rico. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Competitive Landscape

Personal income, consumer confidence, and interest rates drive demand. The profitability of individual companies depends on efficient supply chain management and effective merchandising and marketing. Large companies have advantages in purchasing, distribution, and marketing. Small companies can compete effectively by selling unique merchandise, providing superior customer service, offering a distinctive shopping experience, or serving a local market. Annual revenue per worker averages US$250,000, but ranges from US$600,000 for new car dealers to less than US$200,000 for grocery stores.

Retail Sector Industry Forecast

The output of retail trade in the US is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 2.0% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2009

Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (HQ)

W. Howard Lester Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer3250 Van Ness AvenueSan Francisco, CA 94109United States - Phone: 415-421-7900Fax: 415-616-8359

http://www.williams-sonomainc.com

Tiffany & Company (TIF) Up-date 2 Last Look: November 30, 2009

March 21, 2010

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Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst

Today, let’s look at Tiffany & Company (TIF), the specialty is fine jeweler, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Friday’s (March 19) market action, are Bullish: in the near term Bullish, mid-term Bullish, and long term Neutral. The recent candlestick analysis is: Neutral.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News and Opinion: Among the companies whose shares are expected to see active trading in Monday's session are Williams-Sonoma Inc., Tiffany & Co., and Phillips-Van Heusen Corp.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-to-watch-for-monday-2010-03-20?siteid=yhoof

Friday’s Market Action Close 47.25 -.33 Volume 2,536,600/shrs

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There are three Gaps open up between February 10 and 17, 2010 at 340.35/42.36, the near term resistance is 49.03, support at 47.05, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 44.22.

This is Tiffany & Co. (TIF): Tiffany & Company is a bountiful buffet, complete with the finest crystal and flatware, as well as more ubiquitous fare. Its specialty is fine jewelry, but the company also puts its name on timepieces, silverware, china, stationery, and other luxury items. Many products are packaged in the company's trademarked Tiffany Blue Box. To entice budget-minded Buffys to do more than window shop, Tiffany has broadened its merchandise mix to include key chains and other items that sell for much less than the typical Tiffany price tag. The firm sells its goods exclusively through more than 180 Tiffany & Co. stores and boutiques worldwide, its Web site, business-to-business accounts, and catalogs.

Competitive Landscape

Jewelry sales depend partly on consumer income. Small jewelers can effectively compete with large chains because price isn't the main factor determining sales. Profitability depends on merchandising and effective marketing.

Jewelry Retail Industry ForecastUS personal consumption expenditures for jewelry and watches are forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 2% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2009

Tiffany & Company (HQ)

Michael J. Kowalski, Chairman and CEO 

727 5th Ave.New York, NY 10022United States  (Map)Phone: 212-755-8000Fax: 212-605-4465Toll Free: 800-843-3269

http://www.tiffany.com

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