paul carter, cfa point defiance capital management llc april 23, 2013 myths and realities of...
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Paul Carter, CFAPoint Defiance Capital Management LLC April 23, 2013
Myths and Realities of Microcap Investing
From SEC’s “Microcap Stock: A Guide for Investors”1
“Lack of Public Information… information about microcap companies can be extremely difficult to find, making them more vulnerable to investment fraud schemes.”
“Risk…microcap stocks are among the most risky. Many microcap companies tend to be new and have no proven track record. Some of these companies have no assets or operations.”
1 Source: www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/microcapstock.htm
Microcaps Often Get a Bad Rap
•MSCI USA Micro Cap Index (932 stocks)1
•Market Cap Range: $2 mm - $564 mm•Median: $73 mm
•Russell Microcap Index (1,510 stocks)2
•Market Cap Range: $30 mm - $565 mm•Median: $152 mm
•Dow Jones Select MicroCap Index (272 stocks)3
•Market Cap Range: $0.0 – $1.0 billion•Median: $0.3 billion
1 Source: www.msci.com/resources/factsheets/index_fact_sheet/msci-usa-micro-cap-index.pdf2 As at 2012 reconstitution; Source: www.russell.com/indexes/tools-resources/reconstitution/us-capitalization-ranges.asp3 Source: www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/downloads/fact_info/Dow_Jones_Select_MicroCap_Index_Fact_Sheet.pdf
Definition
Russell 2000® Index 8% of Russell 3000®
Index
Russell Midcap® In-dex
27% of Russell 3000® Index
Russell Top 200® Index
64% of Russell 3000® Index
Russell Microcap® Index <3% of U.S. equity market
Russell Indexes
Source: http://www.russell.com/indexes/documents/US_Indexes_comparison.pdf
Some Common Beliefs about Microcaps
• They are a bunch of tech/biotech stocks.• They are companies of low quality.• The costs to trade them are extremely high.• It’s hard to borrow / short these stocks.• If a tree falls in the forest, does anybody hear?• Correlations among microcaps are high.
Sector Diversity
Source: Baseline, Point Defiance Capital Management calculations
Quality of Microcaps
Source: Baseline, Point Defiance Capital Management calculations
Microcaps Are Often Well Known
How Hard are Microcaps to Trade?
Source: Baseline, Point Defiance Capital Management calculations
How Hard are Microcaps to Trade?
Source: Baseline, Point Defiance Capital Management calculations
How Hard are Microcaps to Trade?
Source: Thomson ONE, Point Defiance Capital Management calculations
Short Interest
Source: Baseline, Point Defiance Capital Management calculations
Analyst Coverage
Source: Baseline, Point Defiance Capital Management calculations
Do Microcaps Move?
Source: Baseline, Point Defiance Capital Management calculations
Do Microcaps Move Together?
Source: Baseline, Point Defiance Capital Management calculations
Conclusions about US Microcap Stocks
• Lots of opportunities by sector/industry.• Plenty of “good” companies, although the quality range is wide.• Trading costs are significant.• Relatively little competition to short.• News often moves these stocks a great deal.• Correlations among stock returns are low.• Inefficiencies, and therefore opportunity to get an edge, are high.
Paul Carter, CFAPoint Defiance Capital Management LLC April 23, 2013
Thank You
The Case For MicrocapDennis Jensen, CFA – Director of Research4-23-13
Investment Management in Microcap
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Microcap – A Rich Opportunity
Inefficiency creates better return opportunity
Little institutional attention to Microcap stocks
A diversifying space within US Equity (stock specific)
Shares some advantages of Private Equity strategies, but avoids some disadvantages
Microcap companies are common targets for M&A activity
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The Average Manager Outperforms
Source: Acuitas, Evestment, Russell Investments.
Annualized Active Manager OutperformancePeriod ending June 30, 2012
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Why Doesn’t Everyone Do It?
Large investment managers can’t manage enough money to support infrastructure
Large brokers can’t generate trading volume
Investors that rely on brokers for research are at a disadvantage
“Competitors” end up being insiders, individual investors, local brokers, etc.
The bottom line – most institutional investors don’t even try!
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Unique considerations for managers
Tug-of-war between resources and business viability
Efficiency in idea generation and research is critical
Far easier to gain an ‘informational’ advantage
With power comes responsibility (on your own with research!)
Does anyone care? Discovery is powerful
Avoiding the ‘garbage’ puts wind at your back
DON’T MANAGE TOO MUCH MONEY
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Microcap Products with Low Asset Bases Outperform
Source: Acuitas, Evestment, Russell Investments. Annual returns are based on asset level as of the start of each 12 month period beginning June 30.
Microcap Universe Performance by AUM10 years ending June 30, 2012
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Discussion