pata global insights conference - pacific asia travel ... · pdf filepata global insights...

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PATA

Global Insights

Conference 2017

September 2017

“Know tomorrow’s travellers”

© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.2

ABOUT FORWARDKEYS

2

ForwardKeys predicts future travel patterns by crunching and analysing 17M bookingtransactions a day. It is used by companies operating in the global travel ecosystem to monitorand anticipate traveller arrivals and stay ahead of the trends from a particular origin market at aspecific time.

THE REFERENCE FOR GLOBAL TRAVELER INTELLIGENCE

ABOUT FORWARDKEYS

Shanghai 27%

Beijing12%

Hangzhou14% ZERO IN ON WHAT REALLY MATTERS

Get to the bottomline of granularity

CASH IN, SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITYKnow who will be traveling, where and when

KNOW TOMORROW’S TRAVELLERSProfiling capabilities from a different angle

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING RIGHT NOWDaily data freshness as a differentiator


Travel & Tourism Resilience


EUROPE

Departures Arrivals

+4.2% +7.3%

ASIA PACIFIC

Departures Arrivals

+4.1% +3.3%

Middle East & AFRICA

Departures Arrivals

+5.2% +8.4%

THE AMERICAS

Departures Arrivals

+7.1% +2.0%

Global International Air Travel 2017 Year to Date


International Arrivals in Asia Pacific: Top long-haul Source Markets

THE AMERICAS+7.7%

+35%

+28%

EUROPE+7.5%

+25%

+16%

+11%

Top Origin Countriesin terms of GROWTH

2017 Year to Date %Var.

Year to Date:

+3.3%


Increasing & Unprecedented Shocks


Stock market crash really discourages Chinese to book trips

Evolution of Shanghai Stock Exchange and YoY %Var Int‘l Air Bookings from China:During May 26th to October 20th 2015

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index

May

26

May

28

Jun

01

Jun

03

Jun

05

Jun

09

Jun

11

Jun

15

Jun

17

Jun

19

Jun

24

Jun

26

Jun

30

Jul 0

2

Jul 0

6

Jul 0

8

Jul 1

0

Jul 1

4

Jul 1

6

Jul 2

0

Jul 2

2

Jul 2

4

Jul 2

8

Jul 3

0

Au

g 0

3

Au

g 0

5

Au

g 0

7

Au

g 1

1

Au

g 1

3

Au

g 1

7

Au

g 1

9

Au

g 2

1

Au

g 2

5

Au

g 2

7

Au

g 3

1

Sep

02

Sep

08

Sep

10

Sep

14

Sep

16

Sep

18

Sep

22

Sep

24

Sep

28

Sep

30

Oct

09

Oct

13

Oct

15

Oct

19

Panic and first government reactions

Control policies and high spending

Government activity reduction

June 18. Regulators limitsshort selling.June 27. China’s Central Bankcut rates and cash reserveratio.

July 5. People’s Bank of Chinainjects liquidity.July 8. Beijing prohibits stocksales by major shareholders.

Aug 14. Some tradedcompanies are allowed to sellstock.Aug 25. Cut rates again afterShanghai index reaches lowestvolume.

Self-adjusting

Sep 7. Tax benefits for long-term shareholders.

26th and 27th

Mid-Autumn Day

Stimulus expectation

1th - 7th

Golden Week

Oct 12. Central Bank announced stimulus.


Bookings for travel to Barcelona: negative for 3 weeks after the attack

BCNBookings for travel to Barcelona, long haul markets (excl. Europe), weekly YoY var.

+20.2% YoY -7.9% YoY

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

21-Jul 28-Jul 4-Aug 11-Aug 18-Aug 25-Aug 1-Sep 8-Sep

BCN attack on 17th August


Travellers are thrilled by the ease of visa: Chinese as a great example

Growth in Chinese arrivals in the destination since its visa ease policy was implementedCN

*Variation only for arrivals between Aug and Oct 2014.

Serbiavisa exemption

+280%

USA10-year visa

+6%

Canada10-year visa

+21%

Chilevisa exemption for US/CA visa holders

+53%

U.K.2-year visa

+17%

Ecuadorvisa exemption

+69%

Moroccovisa

exemption

+398%Peru

visa exemption for US/CA/UK/AU/Schengen visa holders

+39%

ArgentinaE-visa for

US/CA/Schengen visa holders

+18%

Israel10-year visa

+41%

ArmeniaE-visa

+70%

Tunisiavisa exemption

+217%

Belarus5 days visa exemption

+40%

Thailandvisa free of charge

for 3 months*+73%

IndiaE-visa

+11%

IndonesiaE-visa

+28%

MalaysiaE-visa

+48%

U.A.E.visa on arrival, free of charge

+36%


14 May 17 21 May 17 28 May 17 04 Jun 17 11 Jun 17 18 Jun 17 25 Jun 17 02 Jul 17 09 Jul 17

Dai

ly U

K a

rriv

als

in N

Z

Daily arrivals from UK to New Zealand

2017 2016

OTB

+290% Hist.

Destination New Zealand

NZ

+350%1st Test

June 24th

VS

VS

Opening match June 3rd 2017

VS

Last match July 8th

: British and Irish Lions tour warmed the winter


What is next?


Destination South Korea: suffering the absence of Chinese travellers

International

Excl. China

+11% -19%-21%China to South Korea flight capacity

China to South Korea flight capacity

2016 Year to Date Forward Looking

Full Year Jan to Sep 15th 2017 Sep 16th to Dec 31st 2017

25%

16%

-50% 0%

International

Excl. China

-30%

-0.4%

-50% 0%

-22%

-6%

-50% 0%

KR


Destination Guam: forward looking is worrying towards year end

September 19th 2017

Jan 1st to FIRST THREATFIRST THREAT until Sep 19th

Arrivals from Japan

-13% -30%

Arrivals from South Korea

+41% +12%

Total international arrivals in Guam

+11% -9%

FIRST THREAT August 9th

2017January 1st

2017

Year-on-year variations of international air arrivals in Guam: 2017 Year to Date & On the Book

December 31st 2017

YoY %Var. of Arrivals on the bookSep 20th to Dec 31st 2017

-24%

+14%

-3%

On the Book


New Zealand(+11%; 8%)

Philippines(+8%; 11%)Malaysia

(+11%; 13%)

Indonesia(+22%; 11%)

Vietnam(+16%; 20%)

Australia(+8%; 5%)

Asia Pacific

Asia Pacific destinations: South Korea was the only loser among Top 15

GET IN CONTACT

[email protected]

[email protected]

forwardkeys.com

Jameson WongDirector of Business Development

– APAC

Mobile: +65 9325 5026

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.forwardkeys.com/

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