park city - q4 market report

7/30/2019 Park City - Q4 Market Report

1/49

2012 AnnualNational and Local Real Estate Review

First to Know

Rick J. Klein

Private Mortgage BankerWells Fargo Home Mortgage

[email protected] 11, 2013
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


2/49

Demand: Pended SalesNAR announced (12/28) the pended sales index rose 1.7%in November and is 9.8% above November.

GPC saw a slight increase in December over November anda substantial increase over a dismal December 2011. Both4th quarter and annual pended sales were the highest since2006!

Dr. Yun predicts given this upward momentum existinghome sales could rise 8% to 9% in 2013 to 5.1 million.


3/49

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

Jan-01

Jul-0

1

Jan-02

Jul-0

2

Jan-03

Jul-0

3

Jan-04

Jul-0

4

Jan-05

Jul-0

5

Jan-06

Jul-0

6

Jan-07

Jul-0

7

Jan-08

Jul-0

8

Jan-09

Jul-0

9

Jan-10

Jul-1

0

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

NAR & GPC Pending Home Sales Index

Thru 12/2012Source: NAR, PCMLS and Rick J. Klein

National PSHI Park City PSHI


4/49

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7

Oct

-07

Jan-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8

Oct

-08

Jan-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9

Oct

-09

Jan-10

Apr

-10

Jul-1

0

Oct

-10

Jan-11

Apr

-11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-12

Apr

-12

Jul-1

2

Oct

-12

#

oftransa

ctions

Pended Sales: Greater Park City

As of 12/2012

Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

Land SFR Condos


5/49

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

#

oftran

sactions

Annual Pended Sales: Greater Park City


VL SF CO

2012 compared to2011: up 16.8%2010: up 37.8%2009 up 95.0%2008 up 92.3%2007 up 2.1% !!!2006 down 24.7%


6/49

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

#

oftran

sactions

Pended Sales: Greater Park City4th Quarter Totals


VL SFR Condo

2012 compared to2011: up 12.4%2010: up 35.3%2009 up 71.2%

2008 up 164%2007 up 27.1%2006 down 9.3%


7/49

Demand: Existing SalesNAR announced (12/20) existing home sales rose 5.9% to aSAAR of 5.04M in November, and are 14.5% higher thanone year ago.

Park City existing home sales fell 18% from October toNovember and was flat through December. November2012, however, was 22.5% higher than November 2011.


8/49

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

6,000,000

6,500,000

7,000,000

7,500,000

Jan-00

Jul-0

0

Jan-01

Jul-0

1

Jan-02

Jul-0

2

Jan-03

Jul-0

3

Jan-04

Jul-0

4

Jan-05

Jul-0

5

Jan-06

Jul-0

6

Jan-07

Jul-0

7

Jan-08

Jul-0

8

Jan-09

Jul-0

9

Jan-10

Jul-1

0

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

NAR and PC # of TransactionsAs of 12/2012

Source NAR, PCMLS and Rick J. Klein

NAR SAAR Left Axis PC 3 Mo Rolling Avg Right Axis


9/49

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan-07

Mar

-07

May

-07

Jul-07

Sep

-07

Nov-07

Jan-08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-08

Sep

-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-09

Sep

-09

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-10

Sep

-10

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-11

Sep

-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-12

Sep

-12

Nov-12

#

ofTransactions

Closed Sales: Greater Park City(as of 12/2012)

Source: PCMLS/ Rick J. Klein

CO SF VL


10/49

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

#

oftransactions

Closed Sales: Greater Park City

Annual Totalsas of 12/2012


CO SF VL

2012 compared to2011 up 10.7%

2010 up 29.5%2009 up 76.0%2008 up 52.6%2007 down 17.7%2006 down 30.7%


11/49

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

#

oftransactions

Closed Sales: Greater Park City4th Quarter Totals

as of 12/2012

Source: Rick J. Klein

CO SF VL

2012 compared to2011 up 28.1%2010 up 40.4%2009 up 36.6%2008 up 127%2007 up 3.8% !!!2006 down 15.2%


12/49

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13/49

Cash Sales:NAR stated all-cash sales were 30% in November, this isup from 29% in October 20112. Investors, who account formost cash sales, purchased 19% of homes in November;

they were also 19% in November 2011.

All-cash sales in GPC increased to 50% in 2012. (If onlywe looked more like the national stats. What is up withyou guys in the room?)


14/49

26%

35%

45%

50%

48%

50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

%o

fCashSales

Cash Sales HistorySource: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

Cash Sales


15/49

Supply: InventoryNAR: total housing inventory at the end of November fell3.8% to 2.03M homes which represents a 4.8 monthsupply at the current sales rate and is the lowest housing

supply since September 2005.

GPC total listings decreased to 1,201 as of 1/1/2013 or adecrease of 3.4% from December 2012; down from 1,497listings on January 2012. Based on an average of the pastthree months sales this represents a 10.2 month supply;excluding lots a 8.0 month supply. This is the lowesthousing supply since the PCMLS began systematicallytracking active/pended listings in January of 2007.


16/49

Supply: Inventory

Source: Wells Fargo Securities


17/49

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

#

oflistings

Active Listings - Greater Park City(Inventory as of first of the month)

January 2013

Source: PC MLS & Rick Klein

VL SF CO


18/49

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

Jan-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7

Oct

-07

Jan-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8

Oct

-08

Jan-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9

Oct

-09

Jan-10

Apr

-10

Jul-1

0

Oct

-10

Jan-11

Apr

-11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-12

Apr

-12

Jul-1

2

Oct

-12

#ofMonths

Absorption Rate: Greater Park City(Sales: 3 mo rolling avg.)

Decemberr 2012

Source: PC MLS and Rick J. Klein


19/49

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

3540

45

50

55

60

65

Jan-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7

Oct

-07

Jan-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8

Oct

-08

Jan-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9

Oct

-09

Jan-10

Apr

-10

Jul-1

0

Oct

-10

Jan-11

Apr

-11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-12

Apr

-12

Jul-1

2

Oct

-12

#ofMonth

s

Absorption Rate (ex lots): Greater Park City(Sales: 3 mo rolling avg.)

December 2012Source: PC MLS and Rick J. Klein


20/49

Supply: Inventory Change 1/1/12 - 1/1/13


21/49

Distressed SalesNAR: distressed sales accounted for 22% of Novembersales (12% REO, 10% short sales) down from 24% inOctober and 29% in November 2011. Foreclosures sold at

a discount of 20% and short sales for a discount of 16%market price.

For the fourth quarter in Summit County, distressedsales accounted for 13.0% of total sales (6.8% REO,

6.2% short sales) down from 13.5% for Q3 2012 and31% Q4 2011. Distressed sales sold for a discount of3.3% off of market sales.


22/49

6.79%

2.00%

6.25%

3.66%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

% Sold % Listed

%o

ftransactions

Summit County Distressed Sales and Listings Q4 2012Source: Summit County Recorder, PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

Short Sale Bank Owned


23/49

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

Q3

10

Q4

10

Q1

11

Q2

11

Q3

11

Q4

11

Q1

12

Q2

12

Q3

12

Q4

23

Distressed Sales Summit CountySource: Summit County Recorder, PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

Short Sale REO


24/49

29.6%

23.5%

10.8%

7.9%

6.7%

5.4%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

2nd half 2010 2011 2012

Distressed Sales Summit CountySource: Summit County Recorder, PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

Short Sale Bank Owned


25/49

# of Distressed Sales per area: 2012


26/49

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Q107

Q207

Q307

Q407

Q108

Q208

Q308

Q408

Q109

Q209

Q309

Q409

Q110

Q2

10

Q3

10

Q410

Q111

Q2

11

Q3

11

Q411

Q112

Q2

12

Q3

12

Q412

Foreclosure Report - Wasatch CountySource: Wasatch County Recorder/Rick J. Klein

Notice of Default Trustee's Deed

NODs up 41% from Q3

Trustees Deeds down 56% from Q3


27/49

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Foreclosure Report - Wasatch County

Annual TotalsSource: Wasatch Countty Recorder/Rick J. Klein


NODs down 38% from 2011

Trustees Deeds down 23% from 2011


28/49

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q107

Q207

Q307

Q407

Q108

Q209

Q308

Q408

Q109

Q209

Q309

Q409

Q110

Q210

Q310

Q410

Q111

Q211

Q311

Q411

Q112

Q212

Q312

Q412

Foreclosure Report - Summit County!"#$%&'(!"$))*+!,#$-./!0'%1'%20*&3!45!67'*-!!


NODs up 42% from Q3

Trustees Deeds down 11% from Q3


29/49

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Foreclosure Report - Summit County

Annual TotalsSource: Summit County Recorder/Rick J. Klein


NODs down 34% from 2011

Trustees Deeds down 51% from 2011


30/49

Quick Update: Shadow InventoryCoreLogic reported (1/2/13) shadow inventory fell to 2.3Munits as of October 2012 representing a supply of sevenmonths. This is a drop of 2.6M units as of October 2011.

Given the long foreclosure timelines in many states, thecurrent shadow inventory stock represents little immediatethreat to a significant swing in housing market supply.


31/49

Shadow Inventory: Improving


32/49

Shadow Inventory: ImprovingLender Processing Services (1/4/13) also indicatedsignificant declines in delinquencies and foreclosures:


33/49

Shadow Inventory: reduced FC starts


34/49

Shadow Inventory: Improving


35/49

Shadow InventoryMy thoughts:

Shadow inventory will not create a stumble in thehousing recovery; REOs and short sales will continue todecline as a percent of market sales.

Yet, we will certainly have additional distressed salesthroughout 2013; so keep your short sale skills sharp.


36/49

Home Prices: The topicNAR (12/20) stated median existing home price rose 10.1%from one year ago with 9 consecutive YoY monthly gains.

Park City median 12 month rolling average of all propertytypes was $485,000 in December which is up 4.1% fromone year ago.

Case Shiller announced (12/26) home prices increased 4.3%

for the 12 months ending Oct for the 20-City Composite.

FHFA stated (12/20) home prices increased 5.6% betweenOctober 2012 and October 2011.

CoreLogic reported (12/4) home prices increased 6.3% inOctober 2012 over October 2011; 8th consecutive increase.


37/49

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

1/1/00

1/1/01

1/1/02

1/1/03

1/1/04

1/1/05

1/1/06

1/1/07

1/1/08

1/1/09

1/1/10

1/1/11

1/1/12

PC

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NAR

Median

NAR and PC Median Price Trends!As of 12/2012!

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38/49


39/49


40/49


41/49

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

Jan-01

May-01

Sep-01

Jan-02

May

-02

Sep-02

Jan-03

May

-03

Sep-03

Jan-04

May-04

Sep-04

Jan-05

May

-05

Sep-05

Jan-06

May

-06

Sep-06

Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

May

-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May

-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May

-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May

-12

Sep-12

Greater Park City Median Prices6 month rolling average

(as of 12/2012)Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

6 mo Median Price

Down38%frompeak


42/49

Real Estate Prices: Affordability

Jan 2006 Jan 2013

Down 20% 20%

P & I $1,800 $1,800

Rate 6.25% 3.500%

Loan Amt $292,340 $400,850

Price $365,420 $501,064Increase of 3 %


43/49

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44/49

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45/49

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46/49

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47/49

GPC 2012 v 2011 Snap Shot


48/49

Rates remain astounding!Rates quoted for a purchase w/one point (as of 1/10/2013)

15 year fixed conforming: 2.500%; APR 2.715%

30 Year Fixed 5/1 ARM

Conforming 3.500%

3.622% APR

2.000%

2.858% APR

High-Balance(now $600,300)

3.625%

3.622% APR

2.250%

2.900% APR

Non-Conforming 3.625%

3.732% APR

2.125%

2.885% APR


49/49

In Summary

Demand is strong. Closed sales are up 10.7% from lastyear.

Supply is down. Lowest number of listings since we began

keeping records in 2007.

Prices finally show appreciation. Median price in 2012 isup 4.1% higher than 2011.

Distressed sales are declining. NODs are down 34% from2011.

Rates are great and referrals are appreciated.

park city - q4 market report

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