page 1 competitive interaction. page 2 strategic management…action that creates value pazzo’s...
TRANSCRIPT
Page 1
Competitive Interaction
Page 2
Strategic Management…Action that Creates Value
Pazzo’s
Lynagh’sPub
Lynagh’sPub
Hardball?
CompetitiveOutcomes
IndustryCharacteristics
OrganizationalCharacteristics
Page 4
Dethronement of the Leader
Market ShareShare
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20001950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Wal-MartSears
JC Penney
Page 5
Dethronement of the Leader
Market Share
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20001950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
McDonnell-Douglass
Boeing
Airbus
Page 6
Dethronement of the Leader
Market Share(U.S.)
1980 1990 20051980 1990 2005
Adidas
Nike
Reebok
Page 7
King of the Hill – Fizzy Beverages
Market Share
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Other ?Coke
PepsiPepsi
Page 8
Simple Rivalry: Prisoner’s Dilemma
What to say to police?
Criminal 1
Criminal 2
Confess
Confess
Keep Quiet
Keep Quiet
Both Serve 1 Year in Jail
Both Serve 5 Years in Jail
#2 Serves 10 Years in jail
#1 Goes Free
#1 Serves 10 Years in Jail
#2 Goes Free
Page 9
Three Stooges
Larry, Moe, and Curley are in a 3-way duel and agree to take turns shooting each other, in that order
Accuracy statistics:
– Larry hits target 20% of the time
– Moe hits target 80% of the time
– Curley hits target 100% of the time
When the duel starts, what should Larry do?
Page 10
Competitive Intelligence
A systematic and ethical program forgathering information about competitorsand general business trends to further yourown company’s goals
Page 11
Why CI?
Play the Game Differently•New market opportunity•New customers•Develop/leverage new value
chain strengths•New strategies/tactics•New “flow” of the game
Figuring out what drives behavior•Environment/industry drivers•Organizational drivers•Managerial drivers
Playing the Game Better•Focus on existing
competitors/strategic position•Leverage value chain strengths•Incrementally improve existing
strategies/tactics
Page 12
Competitor Intelligence Pyramid
s
z
aSources of Data
Analysis of Data
Recommendations
Page 13
Recommendations
Analysis of Data
Sources of Data
Competitor Intelligence Pyramid
•Industry experts/analysts•Industry publications•Trade shows/conferences•Advertisements/PR•University research centers•Financial•Court documents/patents•Suppliers/customers•Newspapers•Help wanted ads•Reverse engineering labs
Page 14
Your Rival’s News-based Competitive Actions July-October 2009
• Contract with Spike Lee for TV ad
• Increase R&D budget by 30%
• Buy warehouse facility near airport in Germany, Re-tool with robotic material handling system
• License Oracle’s newest technology
• Cut prices on older version of product by 33%
• Endorsement contract with famous World Cup soccer athletes
• Create multifunctional new product design team
Reverse Engineering – Your Rival’s Product
Page 15
Page 16
Recommendations
Analysis of Data
Sources of Data
Competitor Intelligence Pyramid
•Value chain analysis
•Ratio analysis
•Benchmarking
•Cost analysis
•Trend analysis
•Personality profiling
•Wargaming or scenario planning
•Competitive behavior analysis
Page 17
Recommendations
Analysis of Data
Sources of Data
Competitor Intelligence Pyramid
•Track Existing Rivals•Anticipate New Rivals•Inform Strategy:
– Identify own/competitor’s strengths/weaknesses
– Early warning system– Plan of attack/retaliation
Page 18
The Cola Wars
Page 19
Co
ke’
s M
ark
et S
ha
re
MKT MKTPRICE PRODMKTCAP SIG PROD
Competitive Action RepertoireThe set of competitive actions carried out in a given time period
Repertoire
Page 20
Your Rival’s Competitive Actions
• Contract with famous movie director, Spike Lee, for TV ad
• Increase R&D budget by 30%
• Buy warehouse facility near airport in Germany, Re-tool with robotic material handling system
• License Oracle’s newest technology
• Cut prices on older version of product by 33%
• Endorsement contract with famous U.S. Olympic athletes
• Create multifunctional new product design teama b c d e
Page 21
Competitive Dynamics Analysis
• Observe competitive moves• Organize competitive moves
–Action/response pairs–Action repertoires (year-end tallies)–Competitive attacks/sequences
• Measurement/Analysis of Characteristics– Action pattern characteristics that improve:
•Market share•Stock price•Profitability
ActionPair 1
ActionPair 2
ActionPair 3
ActionPair 4
Coca-Cola
Pepsi
Action-Reaction “Pairs”
timeAction ResponsRespons
ee
•ProfitsProfits•GrowthGrowth•Mkt. Mkt. ShareShare
a
cd
e
d d
a c
Action “Repertoires”
time
•Profits•Growth•Mkt. Share
Year-EndTallies
•Total Actions•Complexity
Coca-Cola
Pepsi
a
c
e
cc
a
a c
d
a b c d e f g h
Strategy and Adaptive Maneuvering
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Chess:• Epaulette’s Mate• Sicilian Defense
Sequence Applications...
LANGUAGE:
BOXING: DNA:
qcheaTiueissesne. hsiT si a cesneueq.
This is a sequence.
Jab...Jab…Uppercut
CA
GT
AC
AT
AG
TA
CG
AT
AC
GA
MUSIC:
COMPUTER PROGRAM:
data actions2; subj = _n_; do i = 1 to max; output = matrix; end;run;
Page 26
a
b
c
d
e
ca bec a b de ca bd
Coke Pepsi
d
aa
b
e
c
e
b
a
d
b
c c
Observed Sequence Observed Sequence
Competitive Actions Over Time
Page 27
a
b
c
d
e
ca bec a b de ca bd
Coke Industry Norm
d
aa
b
e
c
e
b
a
d
b
c c
Observed SequenceObserved Sequence Observed SequenceObserved Sequence
Coke Strategic Non-Conformity
Page 28
a
b
c
d
e
ca beca b de cab d
Pepsi
d
aa
b
e
c
e
b
a
d
b
c c
Observed SequenceObserved Sequence Observed SequenceObserved Sequence
Pepsi Strategic Conformity
Industry Norm
Page 29
a
b
c
d
e
c ab eca bde ca bd
Coke in time1
d
e
b
aa a
d
bb
e
c cc
Coke in time2
Observed SequenceObserved Sequence Observed SequenceObserved Sequence
Coke Strategic Unpredictability
Page 30
a
b
c
d
e
ca beca bde ca bd
d
e
aa a
d
bb
e
c cc
Pepsi in time1 Pepsi in time2
b
Observed SequenceObserved Sequence Observed SequenceObserved Sequence
Pepsi Strategic Predictability
Page 31
King of the Hill – Fizzy Beverages
Market Market ShareShare
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20001950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Other ?Coke
Pepsi
Page 32
“Hardball” Competition
• Total Actions–More actions are better
• Average Response Time–Faster response time is better
• Repertoire Complexity–Complex repertoire is better
• Attack [Un-]Predictability–Unpredictability is better
Page 33
Group Exercise: Coke vs. Pepsi
• Total Actions–Count of total actions
• Average Response Time–Avg. number of time units between last competitive move in Coke’s attack and Pepsi’s first competitive response, etc.
• Repertoire Complexity–Extent to which entire pattern/repertoire is skewed/simple vs. balanced/complex
• Attack [Un-]Predictability–Recognizable repetition or action combinations in the sequence of actions?
Page 34
Scoring the Fight
Total Actions
Faster Responses
More Complex Repertoire
Unpredictable Attacks
Coke Pepsi
Who will win?
Page 35
Implications for CI:
Predict Future Behavior of Rivals
Rivals’ prior behavior
•Patterns
•Tendencies
•Type & order of moves
•Proactiveness
•Reactiveness
Drivers of Behavior
•Management orientation
•Decision-making
•Financial constraints
•Industry characteristics
Page 36
Implications for CI:
Monitor Your Own Behavior
•Objectively measures of competitive behavior
•Safeguard against complacency, predictability, simplicity of your own company
•Keep rivals off balance / disruption / guessing
•What combinations of moves are effective? …which are ineffective? …smoke signals or bluffs?