Pacific Region OverviewPacific Region Overview

Tom Birchard/Richard KnabbTom Birchard/Richard Knabb

WFO Honolulu/CPHCWFO Honolulu/CPHC

Recent ActivitiesRecent Activities Operational GFE (2.5 km resolution) Operational GFE (2.5 km resolution)

changed to a larger domain to changed to a larger domain to encompass OFF domain during encompass OFF domain during benign weather regime benign weather regime (8 June 2009 (8 June 2009 to 1 July 2009)to 1 July 2009)

Slowdowns/GFE crashes/Workstation Slowdowns/GFE crashes/Workstation lockups related to hardware/software lockups related to hardware/software deficiencies deficiencies

GFE domain reverted to original sizeGFE domain reverted to original size

Recent Activities (cont’d)Recent Activities (cont’d) After OFF test on operational GFE, After OFF test on operational GFE,

workstation memory increased to 4 workstation memory increased to 4 GB from 2 GB per PR RCGB from 2 GB per PR RC

Hesitancy to make changes to Hesitancy to make changes to operational GFE due to possible operational GFE due to possible database corruption/ operational database corruption/ operational implications (entire gridded database implications (entire gridded database lost when initial domain change made)lost when initial domain change made)

Have begun to use IC4D workstation Have begun to use IC4D workstation as test bed for gridded High Seas and as test bed for gridded High Seas and Offshore forecastsOffshore forecasts

Current StatusCurrent StatusOperational GFE domain

Current StatusCurrent StatusIC4D experimental domain

Vision & ChallengesVision & Challenges Aggressively but carefully pursue a transition to Aggressively but carefully pursue a transition to

gridded marine forecasts gridded marine forecasts All centers to proceed on approximately the All centers to proceed on approximately the

same timetable, with respect to development, same timetable, with respect to development, experimental grid and product production and experimental grid and product production and dissemination, and operational implementation. dissemination, and operational implementation.

Determine a source(s) of funding (ideally a Determine a source(s) of funding (ideally a national source) for software development, and national source) for software development, and hardware/servers to handle grid processing.  hardware/servers to handle grid processing. 

Forecast uncertainty, especially for warning-level Forecast uncertainty, especially for warning-level events, must be addressed early in this transition events, must be addressed early in this transition process, and not be an afterthought.  process, and not be an afterthought. 

Vision & ChallengesVision & Challenges Separate GFE server for OFF/HSF Separate GFE server for OFF/HSF

domain (backup and resolution issues)domain (backup and resolution issues) Prepare gridded forecasts out to day 5 Prepare gridded forecasts out to day 5

at 12 hour increments (valid 00/12 at 12 hour increments (valid 00/12 UTC) to support current “legacy” UTC) to support current “legacy” products during transition periodproducts during transition period

Initial forecast elements to include Initial forecast elements to include MSLP, Wind, Wind Gust, SigWvHt, Wx, MSLP, Wind, Wind Gust, SigWvHt, Wx, Hazards as well as Highs, Lows and Hazards as well as Highs, Lows and boundariesboundaries

Additional grids to be added over time, Additional grids to be added over time, incl. Swell & Period, WindWvHt, etc.incl. Swell & Period, WindWvHt, etc.

Vision & ChallengesVision & Challenges Probabilistic vs Deterministic forecastsProbabilistic vs Deterministic forecasts Coordination with AWC for convective Coordination with AWC for convective

forecast?forecast? Pitfalls with editing/collaborating MSLP Pitfalls with editing/collaborating MSLP

gridsgrids Offshore text formatter/local effect Offshore text formatter/local effect

areas/ zone subdivisionsareas/ zone subdivisions Relic text formatters currently w/i IC4DRelic text formatters currently w/i IC4D

Vision & ChallengesVision & Challenges Collaboration and coordination a Collaboration and coordination a

significant challenge along borders significant challenge along borders (timing of grid production, (timing of grid production, techniques/models used, etc.) Not only techniques/models used, etc.) Not only center to center coordination, but also center to center coordination, but also center to WFO.center to WFO.

““Ghost” area from 130E to 160E (North Ghost” area from 130E to 160E (North of EQ) is currently part of analysis area, of EQ) is currently part of analysis area, but not “forecast” area -- Implications for but not “forecast” area -- Implications for WFO Guam and Micronesian island WFO Guam and Micronesian island groupsgroups

Lack of Lack of VisionVision Coordinated Coordinated

VisionVision