pa974-001 monetary policy & financial regulation in a ...mchinn/pa974_lec16_f10.pdf ·...
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PA974 001PA974-001Monetary Policy & Financial Regulation in
a Globalized Economya Globalized Economy
Lecture 16Lecture 16 27 October 2010
Instructor: Menzie ChinnFall 2010Fall 2010
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Basic Banking—Cash Depositg p
First National Bank First National Bank
Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities
Vault +$100 Checkable +$100 Reserves +$100 Checkable +$100
O i f h ki t l d t
Vault Cash
+$100 Checkable deposits
+$100 Reserves +$100 Checkable deposits
+$100
• Opening of a checking account leads to an increase in the bank’s reserves equal to the increase in checkable depositsincrease in checkable deposits
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Basic Banking—Check Depositg p
When a bank receivesFirst National Bank When a bank receivesadditional deposits, it
gains an equal amount of reserves;when it loses deposits
First National Bank
Assets Liabilities
Cash items in process
+$100 Checkabledeposits
+$100
when it loses deposits,it loses an equal amount of reserves
Fi t N ti l B k S d N ti l B k
in process of collection
deposits
First National Bank Second National Bank
Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities
Reserves +$100 Checkable +$100 Reserves -$100 Checkable -$100deposits deposits
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Basic Banking—Making a Profitg g
First National Bank Second National BankFirst National Bank Second National Bank
Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities
Required reser es
+$100 Checkable deposits
+$100 Required reser es
+$100 Checkable deposits
+$100reserves deposits reserves deposits
Excess reserves
+$90 Loans +$90
• Asset transformation-selling liabilities with one set of characteristics and using the proceeds to buy assets with a different set of characteristics
• The bank borrows short and lends long
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Bank Managementg
Li idit M t• Liquidity Management• Asset Management• Liability Management• Capital Adequacy Management• Capital Adequacy Management• Credit Risk• Interest-rate Risk
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Liquidity Management: Ample Excess ReservesAmple Excess Reserves
Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities
Reserves $20M Deposits $100M Reserves $10M Deposits $90M
Loans $80M Bank Capital
$10M Loans $80M Bank Capital
$10M
Securities $10M Securities $10M
• If a bank has ample excess reserves, a deposit outflow does not necessitate changes gin other parts of its balance sheet
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Liquidity Management: Shortfall in ReservesShortfall in Reserves
Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities
Reserves $10M Deposits $100M Reserves $0 Deposits $90M
Loans $90M Bank Capital
$10M Loans $90M Bank Capital
$10M
Securities $10M Securities $10M
• Reserves are a legal requirement and the shortfall must be eliminated
• Excess reserves are insurance against the costs associated with deposit outflows
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p
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Liquidity Management: Borrowingq y g g
Assets Liabilities
Reserves $9M Deposits $90M
Loans $90M Borrowing $9M
Securities $10M Bank Capital $10M
• Cost incurred is the interest rate paid on the borrowed funds
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Liquidity Management: Securities SaleSecurities Sale
Assets Liabilities
Reserves $9M Deposits $90M
Loans $90M Bank Capital $10M
Securities $1M
• The cost of selling securities is the brokerage and other transaction costs
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Liquidity Management: Federal ReserveFederal Reserve
Assets Liabilities
Reserves $9M Deposits $90M
Loans $90M Borrow from Fed $9M
Securities $10M Bank Capital $10M
• Borrowing from the Fed also incurs interest payments based on the discount ratep y
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Liquidity Management: Reduce Loansq y g
Assets Liabilities
Reserves $9M Deposits $90M
Loans $81M Bank Capital $10M
Securities $10M
• Reduction of loans is the most costly way of acquiring reserves
• Calling in loans antagonizes customers
• Other banks may only agree to purchase loans at a substantial discount
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substantial discount
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Asset Management: Three Goalsg
S k th hi h t ibl t• Seek the highest possible returns on loans and securities
• Reduce risk
H d t li idit• Have adequate liquidity
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Asset Management: Four Toolsg
Find borrowers who will pay high• Find borrowers who will pay high interest rates and have low possibility of defaultingof defaulting
• Purchase securities with high returns d l i kand low risk
• Lower risk by diversifyingy y g
• Balance need for liquidity against increased returns from less liquid assets
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increased returns from less liquid assets
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Liability Managementy g
R t h d t i f• Recent phenomenon due to rise of money center banks
• Expansion of overnight loan markets and new financial instruments (such as (negotiable CDs)
Ch k bl d it h d d i• Checkable deposits have decreased in importance as source of bank funds
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Capital Adequacy Managementp q y g
B k it l h l t b k f il• Bank capital helps prevent bank failure
• The amount of capital affects return for pthe owners (equity holders) of the bank
R l t i t• Regulatory requirement
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Capital Adequacy Management: Preventing Bank Failure WhenPreventing Bank Failure When Assets Decline
High Bank Capital Low Bank Capital
Assets Liabilities Assets LiabilitiesReserves $10M Deposits $90M Reserves $10M Deposits $96M
Loans $90M Bank Capital $10M Loans $90M Bank Capital $4M
High Bank Capital Low Bank Capital
Assets Liabilities Assets LiabilitiesReserves $10M Deposits $90M Reserves $10M Deposits $96MReserves $10M Deposits $90M Reserves $10M Deposits $96M
Loans $85M Bank Capital $5M Loans $85M Bank Capital -$1M
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Capital Adequacy Management: Returns to Equity HoldersReturns to Equity Holders
Return on Assets: net profit after taxes per dollar of assetsReturn on Assets: net profit after taxes per dollar of assets
ROA = net profit after taxesassets
Return on Equity: net profit after taxes per dollar of equity capitalReturn on Equity: net profit after taxes per dollar of equity capital
ROE = net profit after taxesequity capital
Relationship between ROA and ROE is expressed by theRelationship between ROA and ROE is expressed by theEquity Multiplier: the amount of assets per dollar of equity capital
EM = AssetsE it C it lEquity Capital
net profit after taxesequity capital
= net profit after taxesassets
× assetsequity capital
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ROE = ROA × EM
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Capital Adequacy Management: SafetyManagement: Safety
B fit th f b k b ki• Benefits the owners of a bank by making their investment safe
• Costly to owners of a bank because the higher the bank capital, the lower the return on equity
• Choice depends on the state of theChoice depends on the state of the economy and levels of confidence
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Credit Risk: Overcoming Adverse Selection and Moral HazardSelection and Moral Hazard
• Screening and information collection• Screening and information collection
• Specialization in lending
• Monitoring and enforcement of restrictive covenants
• Long-term customer relationships
• Loan commitments
• Collateral and compensating balances
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• Credit rationing
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Interest-Rate Risk
First National BankFirst National Bank
Assets LiabilitiesRate-sensitive assets $20M Rate-sensitive liabilities $50M
V i bl t d h t t l V i bl t CDVariable-rate and short-term loans Variable-rate CDs
Short-term securities Money market deposit accounts
Fixed-rate assets $80M Fixed-rate liabilities $50MReserves Checkable depositsLong-term loans Savings depositsLong-term securities Long-term CDs
• If a bank has more rate-sensitive liabilities than assets, a rise in interest rates will reduce bank profits and a decline in interest
Equity capital
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interest rates will reduce bank profits and a decline in interest rates will raise bank profits
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Interest Rate Risk: Gap Analysisp y
Basic Gap Analysis:Basic Gap Analysis:
(rate-sensitive assets − rate sensitive liabilities)(rate sensitive assets rate sensitive liabilities)× Δ interest rates = Δ in bank profits
Maturity Bucket Approachmeasures the gap for several maturity subintervalsmeasures the gap for several maturity subintervals
Standardized Gap Analysisaccounts for differing degrees of rate sensitivity
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ccou s o d e g deg ees o e se s v y
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Interest Rate Risk: Duration Analysisy
Duration Analysis:Duration Analysis:
%Δ market value of security ≈%Δ market value of security−percentage point Δ interest rate × duration in years
Uses the weighted average duration of a financial institution's assets and of its liabilitiesa financial institution s assets and of its liabilities
to see how net worth responds to a change ininterest rates
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interest rates
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Off-Balance-Sheet Activities
Loan sales (secondary loan• Loan sales (secondary loan participation)G ti f f i• Generation of fee income
• Trading activities and risk management g gtechniques
Futures, options, interest-rate swaps, , p , p ,foreign exchangeSpeculation
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Off-Balance-Sheet Activities (cont’d)( )
T di ti iti d i k t• Trading activities and risk management techniques (cont’d)
Principal-agent problem
Internal Controls• Separation of trading activities and bookkeeping
• Limits on exposureLimits on exposure
• Value-at-risk
• Stress testing
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• Stress testing