Ozone and PM Data Ozone and PM Data Analysis and CWS Analysis and CWS

Achievement DeterminationAchievement Determination

S. Beauchamp, D. Waugh, C. S. Beauchamp, D. Waugh, C. Farrell, R. TordonFarrell, R. Tordon

MSC-AMSC-A

Ozone/PM Data AnalysisOzone/PM Data Analysis

• OO33 and PM data support to and PM data support to regional AQI'sregional AQI's

• ozone/ PM climatology ozone/ PM climatology

- e.g. episodes, diurnal, - e.g. episodes, diurnal, seasonal, annual trends, seasonal, annual trends, transport patternstransport patterns

L

L

H

H

June 9, 2004 18Z

Ozone and PM Data AnalysisOzone and PM Data Analysis

• O3 and PM data AQ O3 and PM data AQ prediction model prediction model development, evaluation, development, evaluation, application (CHRONOS, application (CHRONOS, AURAMS).AURAMS).

• continued support the continued support the AQPP forecasting and AQPP forecasting and forecast verificationforecast verification

• O3 and PM outreach:O3 and PM outreach:

CAOL, AIRNOW.CAOL, AIRNOW.

05

101520253035

% F

req

ue

nc

y

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Month

Frequency of Atlantic Region Ozone Exceedance by Month (1980-2002)

Ozone and PM - CWSOzone and PM - CWS

Canada Wide Standards:Canada Wide Standards:

• data re-analyzed within the data re-analyzed within the context of CWS context of CWS achievement achievement

• AQ measurement linkages AQ measurement linkages with KCAC and CIwith KCAC and CI

Kejimkujik, NS - 8-hour running average ozone 1999-2002

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Date/Time

[O3]

pp

bv

1999 2000 2001 2002

CWS Threshold65 ppbv

Kejimkujik, NS - 24-hour running average PM2.51999-2002

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Date/Time

[O3]

ppb

v

1999 2000 2001 2002

CWS Threshold30 ug/m3

Ozone and PM - CWSOzone and PM - CWS• assessment of assessment of

transboundary transport & transboundary transport & source regionssource regions

St. Andrews

Top 25% PM2.5SL-PSCF - All Seasons

0.8 to 10.7 to 0.80.65 to 0.70.6 to 0.650.55 to 0.60.5 to 0.550.45 to 0.50.4 to 0.450.35 to 0.40.3 to 0.350.25 to 0.30.2 to 0.250.15 to 0.20.1 to 0.150.05 to 0.10 to 0.05

Alt

itu

de

(m)

Ozone and PM - CWS Ozone and PM - CWS

CWS AQ Modeling:CWS AQ Modeling:

• support to prov. Joint support to prov. Joint Implementation Implementation PlanningPlanning

• collaboration with collaboration with Quebec region on AQ Quebec region on AQ modeling in Eastern modeling in Eastern Canada linked with Canada linked with MAGS (CMC).MAGS (CMC).

• established new established new Eastern Canada grid Eastern Canada grid (include offshore).(include offshore).

Ozone and PM - CWS Ozone and PM - CWS

CWS Modeling:CWS Modeling:

• regional exceedance regional exceedance database. database.

• case studies (2001-2003) case studies (2001-2003) selected with Que. and selected with Que. and Atlantic (fed/prov) CWS Atlantic (fed/prov) CWS WG.WG.

• CHRONOS model run for CHRONOS model run for June 2001 base case.June 2001 base case. AQUA Modis Visible Satellite Image – 1730 UTC; June 9, 2004.

Note the ‘hazy’ conditions due to the elevated particulate matter content, extending through the bottom half of the image – from Central New Brunswick and south.

Ozone and PM - CWSOzone and PM - CWS

CWS Modeling:CWS Modeling:

• AURAMS run for June 2001 AURAMS run for June 2001 base case.base case.

• Comparison of CHRONOS Comparison of CHRONOS and AURAMS Oand AURAMS O33/PM with /PM with measured data.measured data.

• CHRONOS run with no CHRONOS run with no Canadian emissions Canadian emissions (transboundary (transboundary assessment).assessment).

Ground-Level Ozone Concentration

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00

June 6 thru 11, 2004 (0:00 hr-UTC)

GL

O (

pp

b)

Dayton

Kejimkujik

Kentville

Sable Island

HRM

Pictou

Sydney

Aylesford

Fine-Particulate Concentration

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00

June 6 thru 11, 2004 (0:00 hr-UTC)

PM

2.5 (ug

/m3)

HRM-TEOM

Sydney-TEOM

Sable Island-BAM

Pictou-BAM

Kejimkujik-TEOM

Ozone and PM - CWS Ozone and PM - CWS

CWS Modeling Next Steps:CWS Modeling Next Steps:

• run CHRONOS on new grid; run CHRONOS on new grid; AURAMS next.AURAMS next.

• assess provincial assess provincial contributions (CHRONOS)contributions (CHRONOS)

• model 2010 emission model 2010 emission projections to assess CWS projections to assess CWS jurisdictional achievement.jurisdictional achievement.

• select future year select future year emission reduction emission reduction scenarios (w/Moran)scenarios (w/Moran)

Contribution of Canadian Emissions to Daily Maximum 8 hour average Ozone at St. Andrews, NB June 15-22, 2001

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2001

0615

2001

0616

2001

0617

2001

0618

2001

0619

2001

0620

2001

0621

2001

0622

Date

Da

ily

Ma

x 8

hr

av

g [

O3

] (p

pb

)

Measured

CHRONOS - All emissions

CHRONOS - US Emissions Only

CHRONOS - CDN contribution

Contribution of Canadian Emissions to Daily Maximum 8 hour average Ozone at Norton, NB June 15-22, 2001

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2001

0615

2001

0616

2001

0617

2001

0618

2001

0619

2001

0620

2001

0621

2001

0622

Date

Da

ily

Ma

x 8

hr

av

g [

O3

] (p

pb

)

Measured

CHRONOS - All emissions

CHRONOS - US Emissions Only

CHRONOS - CDN contribution

CHRONOS CWS Modeling

Case Study June 20 2001 00Z

A: Base Case - all emissions B: US Emissions only - Can off

A-B diff: Canadian contribution

Ozone and PM - Research Ozone and PM - Research

Related Research:Related Research:

• enhanced N (Kej)enhanced N (Kej)• BAQSBAQS

• enhanced PMenhanced PM

• special studies: special studies: • ICARTT-TIMS ICARTT-TIMS • RIALTORIALTO

Planned projects:Planned projects:

• regional air shedsregional air sheds• NAESINAESI

99 to 100%

90 to 99%

80 to 90%

30 to 40%

20 to 30%

10 to 20%

0 to 10%

40 to 50%

70 to 80%

60 to 70%

50 to 60%

20°N

40°W

40°N

30°N

50°N

60°W 50°W

90°W

70°W80°W

100°W

110°W

24 hr air shed - Keji

Ozone and PM - Research Ozone and PM - Research Planned projects:Planned projects:

NAESINAESI• 1) development standards 1) development standards

and guidelines for and guidelines for pesticide spray application pesticide spray application (Ernst)(Ernst)

• 2) role of ammonia in PM 2) role of ammonia in PM formation (Vet)formation (Vet)

N Production – Livestock Manure

Beef Cattle /km2 - 1996

Livestock Manure Production -1996

Ozone and PM - Research Ozone and PM - Research

Regional Health Studies:Regional Health Studies:

• QEII Health Sciences StudyQEII Health Sciences Study- respiratory/cardiac - respiratory/cardiac admissions and AQ (incl. admissions and AQ (incl. pollen/spores).pollen/spores).

• CIHR Centre for Research CIHR Centre for Research Development Development - rural health strategy- rural health strategy

Ozone and PM - Research Ozone and PM - Research Socio-economic:Socio-economic:

• AQVM - AQ health cost-benefit AQVM - AQ health cost-benefit analysis (BAQS)analysis (BAQS)

10% reduction in ozone and a 20% reduction in PM2.5 by 2010

Scenario #3 – used 2001 Census data, reduction in PM2.5 is reached by 2010, constant ambient concentrations between 2010-2019, and ambient data was updated based on Average of NAPS annual data 1997-1999.

Expected Reduced Number of Incidences of Health Effects 2010-2019Expected Reduced Number of Incidences of Health Effects 2010-2019

Saint John County, Charlotte County, Queens County, and Kings CountySaint John County, Charlotte County, Queens County, and Kings County

OzoneOzone PMPM2.52.5

EffectEffect Scenario #3Scenario #3 Scenario #3Scenario #3

MortalityMortality 2.88 2.88 38.40 38.40

Chronic BronchitisChronic Bronchitis - - 99.40 99.40

Respiratory Hospital AdmissionRespiratory Hospital Admission 7.37 7.37 7.93 7.93

Cardiac Hospital AdmissionCardiac Hospital Admission - - 6.69 6.69

Emergency Room VisitEmergency Room Visit 31.50 31.50 36.80 36.80

Asthma Symptom DayAsthma Symptom Day 7,558 7,558 10,382 10,382

Restricted Activity DayRestricted Activity Day - - 114,388 114,388

Minor Restricted Activity DayMinor Restricted Activity Day 29,412 29,412 - -

Acute Respiratory SymptomsAcute Respiratory Symptoms 56,871 56,871 171,890 171,890

Child Acute BronchitisChild Acute Bronchitis - - 762 762

Ozone and PM - Research Ozone and PM - Research Socio-economic:Socio-economic:

• AQVM - AQ health cost-benefit AQVM - AQ health cost-benefit analysis (BAQS)analysis (BAQS)

10% reduction in ozone and a 20% reduction in PM2.5 by 2010

Scenario #3 – used 2001 Census data, reduction in PM2.5 is reached by 2010, constant ambient concentrations between 2010-2019, and ambient data was updated based on Average of NAPS annual data 1997-1999.

Undiscounted Future Health BenefitsUndiscounted Future Health Benefits

Saint John County, Charlotte County, Queens County, and Kings CountySaint John County, Charlotte County, Queens County, and Kings County

('000's)('000's)

OzoneOzone PMPM2.52.5

BenefitsBenefits Scenario #3Scenario #3 Scenario #3Scenario #3

MortalityMortality $ 12,648 $ 12,648 $ 168,696 $ 168,696

Chronic BronchitisChronic Bronchitis $ - $ - $ 24,089 $ 24,089

Respiratory Hospital AdmissionRespiratory Hospital Admission $ 52 $ 52 $ 56 $ 56

Cardiac Hospital AdmissionCardiac Hospital Admission $ - $ - $ 60 $ 60

Emergency Room VisitEmergency Room Visit $ 19 $ 19 $ 22 $ 22

Asthma Symptom DayAsthma Symptom Day $ 370 $ 370 $ 509 $ 509

Restricted Activity DayRestricted Activity Day $ - $ - $ 8,922 $ 8,922

Minor Restricted Activity DayMinor Restricted Activity Day $ 1,029 $ 1,029 $ - $ -

Acute Respiratory SymptomsAcute Respiratory Symptoms $ 910 $ 910 $ 2,750 $ 2,750

Child Acute BronchitisChild Acute Bronchitis $ - $ - $ 253 $ 253

TotalTotal $ 15,029 $ 15,029 $ 205,357 $ 205,357

SMOG R&D SummarySMOG R&D Summary

Ozone/PM Measurement NetworkOzone/PM Measurement Network

Ozone/PM ClimatologyOzone/PM Climatology

Ozone/PM and CWSOzone/PM and CWS- exceedences of CWS- exceedences of CWS- transboundary transport- transboundary transport- model applications: JIP- model applications: JIP- marine emissions and - marine emissions and regional air quality regional air quality

Special StudiesSpecial Studies- regional air shed- regional air shed- enhanced N (Keji)- enhanced N (Keji)- RIALTO- RIALTO- ICARTT/TIMS- ICARTT/TIMS- NAESI- NAESI

Regional Health StudiesRegional Health Studies

Socio-economic (AQVM)Socio-economic (AQVM)

Thank You …Keith PuckettMaris LusisBob VetDave MacTavishJeff BrookRichard Leaitch & the ICARTT teamJan BottenhiemMario BenjaminGilles MorneauNedka PentchevaSylvain MenardRichard MoffetL-P CrevierTom DannLuc WhiteNSDOENBDELGMichael Hingston

… and many others