overview of trade flows
TRANSCRIPT
PRODUCE MARKETING ASSOCIATION
OVERVIEW OF TRADE FLOWS
Global trends in food consumption
December 1, 2014
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GLOBAL MERCHANDISE TRENDS
What’s happened in global trade in the last years? How have exports evolved? Which are the key regions producing fruits? Which are the key drivers pushing fruit exports and consumption? How retailing and foodservice growth impacts on sales of fruit?
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World’s exports continue to climb
$0$2,000$4,000$6,000$8,000
$10,000$12,000$14,000$16,000$18,000$20,000
1980 1990 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total World-to-World Merchandise Exports in US$ Billions
Source: Euromonitor International
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WTO volume trend and forecast
Volume of World merchandise exports, 1990-2014 Indices, 1990=100
Figures for 2013 and 2014 are projections. Source: WTO Secretariat
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World AG exports near $1.8 trillion
Source: WTO Secretariat
$- $200 $400 $600 $800
$1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 $2,000
1980 1990 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total World-to-World Exports of Agricultural Products in US$ Billions
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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
‘000
Ton
nes
Regional Fruit volume production
Asia Pacific Australasia Eastern EuropeLatin America Middle East and Africa North AmericaWestern Europe
Asia Pacific produces 65% of world Fruits, followed by Latam with 11%
Source: Euromonitor International
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Banana, Oranges and Apples lead fruit production in the world
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Fruit
Other FruitsCranberries/BlueberriesCherriesPlums/SloesGrapefruit/PomeloStrawberriesPeaches/NectarinesLemon and LimesPineapplePears/QuincesGrapesApplesOranges, Tangerines and MandarinsBanana
• Blueberries were the fastest growing fruits globally at 9% in 2013
• Grapes outsold cranberries/blueberries by 30 to one in volume
• Top 5 markets driving blueberries were Australia, Russia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Venezuela
Source: Euromonitor International
42%
10%
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Key fruit exporters include USA, China, Chile and Western Europe
Export up to 10% in 2009-2013
Export 10%-20% in 2009-2013 Import 10%-20% in 2009-2013
Import 5%-10% in 2009-2013
Source: Euromonitor International
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Drivers, constraints and trends
THE GLOBAL SUPERMARKET IS EXPANDING BUT NOT WITHOUT CHALLENGES
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INCREASE IN PTAS SUPPORTING DYNAMIC TRADE GROWTH
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POPULATION, BIG DRIVER OF TRADE GROWTH
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Asia Pacific Middle Eastand Africa
LatinAmerica
WesternEurope
NorthAmerica
Australasia
Population Growth in ‘000: 2011 through 2020
Developed regions present population growth of less than
50 million through 2020.
Developing regions present population growth of more than
630 million through 2020.
Source: Euromonitor International
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POPULATION GROWTH IN AREAS SERVED BY TRADE
-1000
100200300400500600700800
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
Urban vs Rural Population Growth: 2013-2018
World Asia Pacific MEA Latam
• Consumers buying their food rather than growing/producing their own
• Convenience becomes more important to consumers
• Food manufacturers able to reach more people
• Increased consumer wages and spending power in urban areas
Rural
Urban
Source: Euromonitor International
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RISE IN DISPOSABLE INCOME SUPPORTS PURCHASING
Source: Euromonitor International
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
Regional Disposable Income: Historic & Forecast in US$ billions
Yr 2011
Yr 2020
% Growth
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FOOD CONSUMPTION TRENDS
Developing markets are critical to continued growth
As they…
Took in 56% of California’s tree nut exports and 33% of dried fruit in 2013 Relatively rapid growth in population & income
Massive expansion of middle class
Improving infrastructure and distribution
Emphasis on Free-Trade-Agreements
Adds to a diversified portfolio of trade partners
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REGIONAL GROWTH OF GROCERY RETAILING
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REGIONAL GROWTH OF CONSUMER FOODSERVICE
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REGIONAL CAGR: PACKAGED FOODS FORECAST
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DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CRITICAL TO VOLUME GROWTH
Asia-Pacific, Middle East & Africa and Latin America are expected to combine for approximately 93% global volume growth in packaged foods from 2012-2017.
Asia-Pacific is expected to be 65% of total global volume growth, and Latin America 11% of it.
Western Europe and North America experiencing flat per capita consumption.
Source: Euromonitor International
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PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION REVEALS OPPORTUNITIES
050
100150200250300350400
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Packaged Food: Kg Per Capita Consumption by Region
2014 to 2019 Australasia
North America
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
Latin America
Middle East andAfrica
Asia Pacific
Source: Euromonitor International
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GROWTH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST AG EXPORTS
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