Spring 2016

Real Estate Update and Comparative Market Analysis

I sit down to write this market update fresh off my economic forecast luncheon with the Economic Development Council of Central Oregon (EDCO). I have witnessed the crash and recovery of our economy, and it feels great to be part of the robust recovery that has occurred over the last 5-6 years.

My top takeaways from this forecast lunch were: • Bend was ranked the #8 Best-Performing small city in the nation. This was

derived from data compiled by the Milken Institute, a well-respected, non-partisan, and non-profit economic think tank. This is not a silly top 10 list, this is a very important ranking that was derived from a serious dissection of our economy. The report can be viewed here: http://www.best-cities.org/2015/best-performing-cities-report-2015.pdf

• Our recovery is well-balanced, legitimate and diversified across several industry types.

• Our tech economy is a huge part of our growth and outpaces that of most small cities in the nation.

• We are well invested in the “knowledge economy” which will be leading growth into the future.

• The development of the OSU campus is a critical part of our future for growth, stability and providing highly educated workers.

• Oregon has the 11th best business tax climate. Strengths include no sales tax, no marriage penalty, no real estate transfer tax and only two rates for corporate taxes. Weaknesses are high personal and corporate income tax and estate taxes. Initiative 28 is a gross receipts tax proposal that would negatively impact the competitiveness of the Oregon economy.

• Top threat to continued growth is the lack of supply of affordable housing.

I hope you find the above notes and attached market-data useful. The following pages are a summary of housing specific data from the last 12 months.

Enjoy the Spring! Brian Ladd

The below charts are data on the overall Bend residential market for the last twelve months with a summary and a takeaway analysis for each. Data derived from TrendVision. Feel free to email me for the full data set.

AVERAGE PRICE PER FT

As you see above the average per square foot price has been relatively steady and our current price per ft is up 4.2% year over year. This is very near the long-term trend line and is a balanced and calm reaction from the above-average appreciation years as our housing market rebounded from the 2007-2009 recession

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET/% OF SALES PRICE TO LIST PRICE

As you see above, the average days on market is a cyclical number but we are on par with 2015 with a normal rise on days on market during the winter months. Sales price to list price has fallen to 95%. Note: As you can see, the best time to buy based on discount off list price is October through March.

AVERAGE SOLD AND FOR SALE PRICE

Here is a very important data set. This shows that while sold prices (up 1.5%) are remaining relatively level, the average for sale price (up 16%) is continuing to rise. What does this mean? To me, it shows that sellers have a perception that the market is stronger than reality. For sellers, I suggest not overpricing. For buyers, I would suggest using an agent that can help you determine true market value and not base offers on the asking price alone.

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

The chart above shows the average months of inventory which means the time required to sell all homes currently for sale assuming no new homes come on the market. 6 Months represents a balanced market so our current inventory shows that new listings are needed on the market, however inventory is growing. If you are considering listing your home for sale, now is the time before it grows further.

Thank you for taking the time to review our market update. The Ladd Group is dedicated to serving our clients at the highest level possible. Call us anytime to learn why working with the market leaders benefits you when buying or selling real estate.

For a no-commitment and free assessment on the value of your home please contact us here: http://www.bendpropertysource.com/sell/

For information on finding a home please contact us here: http://www.bendpropertysource.com/buy/

Cheers! Brian Ladd