outermost regions & climate change antónio domingos abreu [email protected]
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 2: Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu antoniodabreu@netmadeira.com](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022020217/55152a4255034673228b54aa/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Small Islands and OR’s
Reduced size Limited natural resources Natural disasters Isolated Vulnerable and exposed economies High population density Vulnerable natural systems
![Page 3: Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu antoniodabreu@netmadeira.com](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022020217/55152a4255034673228b54aa/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Main climate change impacts - OR’s and small islands
Sea level rise
Changes in wind and rain regimes
Soil balance changes
Changes of local wave and near shore sea conditions
Coastal based socieconomical activities
![Page 4: Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu antoniodabreu@netmadeira.com](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022020217/55152a4255034673228b54aa/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Climate Change - main trends
Increase of mean temperature
Sea level rise
Less precipitation
More frequent extreme events
![Page 5: Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu antoniodabreu@netmadeira.com](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022020217/55152a4255034673228b54aa/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Special issues
Development, sustainability and equity, Sea level rise Coastal changes Biological systems and biodiversity Water, agriculture and fisheries Human health, settlements, infrastructures
and tourism
![Page 6: Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu antoniodabreu@netmadeira.com](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022020217/55152a4255034673228b54aa/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Development, sustainability and equity
< 1% of GHG contribution
Exposed and vulnerable economies
Need of scale adaptation measures
![Page 7: Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu antoniodabreu@netmadeira.com](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022020217/55152a4255034673228b54aa/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Sea level rise
5mm/year in the next century
Social and economical implications
Adaptation within their natural and social boundaries...
![Page 8: Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu antoniodabreu@netmadeira.com](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022020217/55152a4255034673228b54aa/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Coastal zones
Human contribution to coastal zone change
In the next 50 to 100 years these changes will increase
Need to assure resilience of coastal zones
Higher social and economical costs of adaptation
![Page 9: Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu antoniodabreu@netmadeira.com](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022020217/55152a4255034673228b54aa/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Natural systems and biodiversity
Natural systems are the basis of the economical stability of OR’s
33% of the endemic species of the flora are insular endemisms
23% of the insular bird species are endangered
Changes in the composition, structure and dynamics of natural systems
![Page 10: Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu antoniodabreu@netmadeira.com](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022020217/55152a4255034673228b54aa/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Water, agriculture & fisheriess
Water availability and food production will always be critical factors in the OR’s
Most of water is from rain origin
Loss of soil, erosion, saline intrusion,
Changes in the abundance and distribution of fisheries
![Page 11: Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu antoniodabreu@netmadeira.com](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022020217/55152a4255034673228b54aa/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Human health, settlements, infrastructures and tourism
Potential increase of biological induced and water related diseases
More critical situations linked to extreme events
Vulnerability of infrasctructures, including touristic and those located on risk zones,
![Page 12: Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu antoniodabreu@netmadeira.com](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022020217/55152a4255034673228b54aa/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Adequated and adapted management
Information
Monitoring
Mitigation
Adaptation
![Page 13: Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu antoniodabreu@netmadeira.com](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022020217/55152a4255034673228b54aa/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Con
cent
raçã
o C
O2 (
ppm
)
Ano
A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 IS92a
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Ano
mal
ia t
empe
ratu
ra (
o C)
Ano
A1 CCSR A1FI CCSR A1T CCSR A2 CCSR B1 CCSR B2 CCSR A2 CGCM2 B2 CGCM2 A1 CSIRO A2 CSIRO B1 CSIRO B2 CSIRO A2 ECHAM4 B2 ECHAM4 A2 GFDL B2 GFDL A1FI HADCM3 A2 HADCM3 B1 HADCM3 B2 HADCM3 A2CSM NCAR A2PCM NCAR B2PCM NCAR
Scenarios & models
![Page 14: Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu antoniodabreu@netmadeira.com](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022020217/55152a4255034673228b54aa/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu antoniodabreu@netmadeira.com](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022020217/55152a4255034673228b54aa/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Precipitation - Madeira (2071-2100)
Dry Winters & wet Summers
Significant loss of precipitation
Perda anual (in mm)
![Page 16: Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu antoniodabreu@netmadeira.com](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022020217/55152a4255034673228b54aa/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Temperature Madeira (2071-2100)
![Page 17: Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu antoniodabreu@netmadeira.com](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022020217/55152a4255034673228b54aa/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Sectoral Impact Assessment
Water Forest Biodiversity Agriculture Tourism Human health Energy ...
![Page 18: Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu antoniodabreu@netmadeira.com](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022020217/55152a4255034673228b54aa/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Potential Impacts on forest and agriculture
Changes in the distribution zones
- altitude;
Higher forest fire risks;
Changes on primary production.
![Page 19: Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu antoniodabreu@netmadeira.com](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022020217/55152a4255034673228b54aa/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Média 1970-2004 Funchal
Impacts on Tourism
QuickTime™ e a³ descompressor³são necessários para ver esta imagem.
Comfort
Health risks
Landscape
Natural disaters
![Page 20: Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu antoniodabreu@netmadeira.com](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022020217/55152a4255034673228b54aa/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Levels of air polution
Contamination vectors
Transmission dinamics
Regional Climatic changes
• Extreme events
• Temperature
• Precipitation
Potential effects on human health
• Death/diseases due to temperature &
climatic extreme events (floods/dry/rain)
• air polution related effects
• Diseases promoted by water and food
• Diseases transmited by bilogical vectors
Human Health
![Page 21: Outermost Regions & Climate Change António Domingos Abreu antoniodabreu@netmadeira.com](https://reader030.vdocuments.site/reader030/viewer/2022020217/55152a4255034673228b54aa/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
The near future
Climate change is a fact It is prioritary to monitor the trends Mitigation and adaptation measuresParticipation
Is this possibe to deal with climate change challenges on a OR’s scale?