out of the storm ’08
DESCRIPTION
September 18, 2008. Out of the Storm ’08. Jeffrey Fieldson Nashville, Tennessee. State of Florida (1851-2005). 2004 Hurricane Season. 2005 Hurricane Season. 2006 Hurricane Season. 2007 Hurricane Season. 2007 Hurricanes – Dean & Felix. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
www.marsh.com
Out of the Storm ’08September 18, 2008
Jeffrey FieldsonNashville, Tennessee
![Page 2: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
www.marsh.com
![Page 3: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
www.marsh.com
![Page 4: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
www.marsh.com
![Page 6: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6Marsh
![Page 7: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7Marsh
2004 Hurricane Season
![Page 8: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8Marsh
2005 Hurricane Season
![Page 9: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9Marsh
2006 Hurricane Season
![Page 10: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10Marsh
2007 Hurricane Season
![Page 11: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11Marsh
2007 Hurricanes – Dean & Felix
Only four times — in the 1960, 1961, 2005 and 2007 hurricane seasons — have multiple Category 5 hurricanes formed. Only in 2005 have more than two category 5 storms formed, and only in 2007 has more than one made landfall at category 5 strength.
![Page 12: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12Marsh
![Page 13: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13Marsh
![Page 14: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14Marsh
![Page 15: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15Marsh
![Page 16: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16Marsh
![Page 17: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17Marsh
![Page 18: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18Marsh
![Page 19: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19Marsh
![Page 20: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20Marsh
U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses*
$7.5
$2.7
$4.7
$22.
9$5
.5 $16.
9$8
.3$7
.4$2
.6 $10.
1$8
.3$4
.6$2
6.5
$5.9 $1
2.9 $2
7.5
$6.5
$100
.0
$61.
9
$9.2
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$12089 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
20??
*Excludes $4B-$6b offshore energy losses from Hurricanes Katrina & Rita. Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01. Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B.Source: Property Claims Service/ISO; Insurance Information Institute
$ Billions
2006/07 were welcome respites. 2005 was by far the worst year ever for insured catastrophe losses in the US, but the worst
has yet to come.
$100 Billion CAT year is coming soon
![Page 21: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21Marsh
Top 10 Most Costly Hurricanes in US History, (Insured Losses, $2005)
$3.5 $3.8 $4.8 $5.0 $6.6 $7.4 $7.7$10.3
$21.6
$41.1
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
Georges(1998)
Jeanne(2004)
Frances(2004)
Rita (2005)
Hugo(1989)
Ivan (2004)
Charley(2004)
Wilma(2005)
Andrew(1992)
Katrina(2005)
$ B
illio
ns
Sources: ISO/PCS; Insurance Information Institute.
Seven of the 10 most expensive hurricanes in US history occurred in the 14 months from Aug. 2004 –
Oct. 2005:
Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Charley, Ivan, Frances & Jeanne
![Page 22: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22MarshSource: AIR Worldwide
Insured Losses: $110BEconomic Losses: $200B+
$70
$30
$5 $4 $1$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
NY NJ PA CT Other
Nightmare Scenario: Insured Property Losses for NJ/NY CAT 3/4 Storm
Total Insured Property Losses =
$110B, nearly 3 times that of
Hurricane Katrina
Distribution of Insured Property Losses,
by State, ($ Billions)
![Page 23: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23Marsh
Track of “Long Island Express” Hurricane of 1938
Source: WeatherUnderground.com, accessed February 4, 2006.
“Great New England Hurricane” of 1938
a.k.a.“Long Island Express” caused severe damage through much of the
Northeast.600+ Deaths$308 million
![Page 24: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24Marsh
Storm Season of 1944: A Busy one for the Northeast
Three storms affected NY, NJ and New England in 1944, including “Great Atlantic
Hurricane”46 deaths
$100 million damage109mph gusts in Hartford
Source: WeatherUnderground.com, accessed May 31, 2006; NOAA loss & fatality figures.
![Page 25: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25Marsh
Storm Season of 1954: The Northeast Hit Again
NY/New England areas hit by Carol & Edna two
weeks apartCarol: 8-10 ft.
floodwaters in ProvidenceEdna hits Cape CodCombined: 80 deaths,
$501 million losses
Source: WeatherUnderground.com, accessed May 31, 2006; NOAA loss & fatality figures.
![Page 26: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26Marsh
Storm Season of 1960: Brenda & Donna Came to Visit
NY/New England areas were hit twice in 1960.
Donna killed 50, $387 million damage along East Coast
Source: WeatherUnderground.com, accessed May 31, 2006; NOAA loss & fatality figures.
![Page 27: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
27Marsh
After a 25 Year Hiatus, Hurricane Gloria Hit in 1985
Source: WeatherUnderground.com, accessed May 31, 2006; NOAA loss & fatality figures.
NY/New England areas were hit by Gloria 9/27/85
8 deaths$900 million damage
![Page 28: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28Marsh
Floyd Visited in 1999, Causing $4.5 Billion in Losses
Source: WeatherUnderground.com, accessed September 16, 2007; NOAA loss & fatality figures.
NY/New England areas were hit by Floyd 9/14 – 9/17/99$4.5 B in damage US
![Page 29: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29Marsh
![Page 30: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
30Marsh
![Page 31: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
31Marsh
More than 8,000 people were killed in the 1900 Galveston hurricane, most by the storm tide. Hurricane Camille in 1969 produced a 24-foot storm tide in Mississippi. Hurricane Hugo in 1989 generated a 20-foot storm tide in South Carolina. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 generated a 27-foot storm tide in Mississippi.
STORM TIDE FACTS
Mean Sea Level
15 ft surge17 ft storm tide
2 ft normal high tide
![Page 32: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
32Marsh
Source Date Named Storms Hurricanes Major Hurricanes
CSU Average (1950-2000) 9.6 5.9 2.3
NOAA Average (1950-2005) 11.0 6.2 2.7
Record high activity 28 15 8
Record low activity 4 2 0
CSU 8/5/2008 17 9 5
NOAA 8/7/2008 14-18 7-10 3-6
Actual activity (as of 9/16/2008) 10 5 3
![Page 33: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
33Marsh
![Page 34: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
34Marsh
Hurricane Ike Stats
Will become the third most costly hurricane in U.S. history
Was a CAT 2 storm with sustained winds of 110 mph. This was 1 mph below a CAT 3 level storm.
48 deaths confirmed in the U.S. – 80 in the Caribbean
4 million people without power after Ike made landfall
2 million residents in Houston without power as of 25 September
40,000 evacuees – sent to 250 shelters
10 inches of rain in Indiana, Illinois, Missouri. Ohio and Kentucky had CAT 1 Hurricane force winds
1.3 million homes without power in Ohio as of 25 September
600,000 customers without power in Kentucky – the largest power outage in state history
![Page 35: Out of the Storm ’08](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022081514/568160ce550346895dd00315/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
35Marsh
Hurricane Ike Stats (continued)
97.5% of oil production and 95% of natural gas production shut down
28 of 3,800 offshore platforms destroyed (64 destroyed in Rita – 44 destroyed in Katrina)
Estimated insured losses from Ike -- $16-$20 billon onshore plus $600 million to $1.5 billion for offshore assets
TWIA (Texas Wind Insurance Association) has a $370 million reserve Trust Fund – plus $1.5 billion in reinsurance. Losses to TWIA will exceed $2.2 billion or more
Ike and Gustav will not be a solvency issue for property insurers but is likely to be an “earnings” event for many insurers
Gustav hit two weeks before Ike – Gustav loss estimates exceed $4 billion