orientationorientation awoc winter weather track facilitator orientation version awoc winter weather...

OrientationOrientationOrientationOrientation

AWOC Winter Weather TrackAWOC Winter Weather Track

Facilitator Orientation VersionFacilitator Orientation Version

AWOC Winter Weather TrackAWOC Winter Weather Track

Facilitator Orientation VersionFacilitator Orientation Version

Winter AWOC 2008-09 Update TeamWinter AWOC 2008-09 Update TeamWinter AWOC 2008-09 Update TeamWinter AWOC 2008-09 Update Team

Brad Grant, WDTB

Andy Wood, WDTB

Jim LaDue, WDTB

Here are the AWOC Winter Subject Matter ExpertsHere are the AWOC Winter Subject Matter ExpertsHere are the AWOC Winter Subject Matter ExpertsHere are the AWOC Winter Subject Matter Experts

Here is the Outline TodayHere is the Outline TodayHere is the Outline TodayHere is the Outline Today

Section 1: Purpose of CourseSection 1: Purpose of Course

Section 2: Overview of the Course (2008 changes)Section 2: Overview of the Course (2008 changes)

Section 3: Roles and Responsibilities Section 3: Roles and Responsibilities

Section 4: Strategies for course takingSection 4: Strategies for course taking

Section 5: TimelinesSection 5: Timelines

Section 1: Purpose of the CourseSection 1: Purpose of the CourseWhy a Winter Weather Track?Why a Winter Weather Track?

Section 1: Purpose of the CourseSection 1: Purpose of the CourseWhy a Winter Weather Track?Why a Winter Weather Track?

• Winter Weather Impacts on TransportationWinter Weather Impacts on Transportation– Nearly 74% of nation’s roads are located in snowy regionsNearly 74% of nation’s roads are located in snowy regions– 7000 deaths/year7000 deaths/year– 1.4 million crashes 1.4 million crashes – $10 billion economic losses$10 billion economic losses

Source: Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) 2004

Buffalo, New York, 1977, Photographer: American Red Cross

Section 1: Why a Winter Weather Track?Section 1: Why a Winter Weather Track?Section 1: Why a Winter Weather Track?Section 1: Why a Winter Weather Track?

• Winter Weather Impacts on Transportation (cont.)Winter Weather Impacts on Transportation (cont.)– Freeway speed and traffic volume reduced by 16-30 % (ISU study)Freeway speed and traffic volume reduced by 16-30 % (ISU study)– 23% of travel time delays23% of travel time delays– Increased operating and maintenance costs (nearly 39% of road Increased operating and maintenance costs (nearly 39% of road

operating costs can be attributed to winter maintenance annually)operating costs can be attributed to winter maintenance annually)

Chicago, IL, Jan. 26, 1967, Photographer: Dept. of Streets and Sanitation


• Impacts on BusinessImpacts on Business– Heating costsHeating costs– Snow-removal costs (also Snow-removal costs (also

increased people hours)increased people hours)– Closures (lowered retail sales)Closures (lowered retail sales)– Insurance lossesInsurance losses

Image from www.1-87vehicles.org

Rapidly Escalating Societal Demands Rapidly Escalating Societal Demands Rapidly Escalating Societal Demands Rapidly Escalating Societal Demands

• Energy Industry has Energy Industry has changed in just the changed in just the past 10 yearspast 10 years

• Has evolved to a “No Has evolved to a “No Storage” modelStorage” model

Rapidly Escalating Societal DemandsRapidly Escalating Societal DemandsRapidly Escalating Societal DemandsRapidly Escalating Societal Demands


• Impacts on SchoolsImpacts on Schools

Image Source: Tulsa Union Public Schools

Section 1: What are the Goals of the Course?Section 1: What are the Goals of the Course?Section 1: What are the Goals of the Course?Section 1: What are the Goals of the Course?

The Purpose Of AWOCThe Purpose Of AWOC

“To provide training to all warning forecasters on warning decision making

principles”

To warn To not warn

We Use These Metrics to Report Our Performance We Use These Metrics to Report Our Performance to the Public and to Congressto the Public and to Congress

We Use These Metrics to Report Our Performance We Use These Metrics to Report Our Performance to the Public and to Congressto the Public and to Congress

Section 2: Here is the AWWTSection 2: Here is the AWWTSection 2: Here is the AWWTSection 2: Here is the AWWT

• Intended AudienceIntended Audience– NOAA/NWS Forecasters with Winter Weather Warning ResponsibilityNOAA/NWS Forecasters with Winter Weather Warning Responsibility– WFOs/National Centers (HPC, SPC)WFOs/National Centers (HPC, SPC)

• Pre-requisitesPre-requisites– NoneNone

• Deliverables Deliverables – Approx. 20-25 hours of instructional online courses on the LMSApprox. 20-25 hours of instructional online courses on the LMS– Printed materials with binder (slides and notes)Printed materials with binder (slides and notes)– Optional materials (job sheets, software applications, online courses)Optional materials (job sheets, software applications, online courses)– Winter Weather WES Case DVD (OB 8.3)Winter Weather WES Case DVD (OB 8.3)

AWOC Winter Track

IC 1Orientation (30 min)

IC 2Products and Services (1.5 hrs)

IC 3Societal Impacts including ground weather (2 hr)

IC 4Climatology (3 hrs)

IC 5Precipitation Forcing Mechanisms (3.5 hrs)

IC 6Forecasting P-type and QPF (3 hrs)

IC 7Monitoring (3 hrs)

IC 8WES (5 hrs)

So, What Will the AWOC Winter Weather Track So, What Will the AWOC Winter Weather Track Look Like?Look Like?

So, What Will the AWOC Winter Weather Track So, What Will the AWOC Winter Weather Track Look Like?Look Like?

Total = 22 hours*

*includes 4 “optional”

lessons

Section 2: How are the ICs Structured?Section 2: How are the ICs Structured?Section 2: How are the ICs Structured?Section 2: How are the ICs Structured?

Instructional Component 2Products and Services

Lesson 2.1: Why Certain Products are Issued

(25 minutes)

Lesson 2.2: WFO/HPC Collaboration (15 minutes)

AWOC Winter Wx Web SiteAWOC Winter Wx Web SiteAWOC Winter Wx Web SiteAWOC Winter Wx Web Site

• All lessons are shown (use the LMS to access the course officially)

• http://wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/winterawoc/lessons.html

• On-line training courses (we call them lessons) are on the LMS web site

What are the Learning Activities for Each IC?What are the Learning Activities for Each IC?What are the Learning Activities for Each IC?What are the Learning Activities for Each IC?

Mini Exercises using the WES++

Articulate Presentations

This method offers opportunities to apply learning after each lesson

What are Learning Objectives?What are Learning Objectives?What are Learning Objectives?What are Learning Objectives?

• Learning objectives are defined for each Learning objectives are defined for each Instructional Component (IC). Instructional Component (IC).

• Learning objectives describe what learners should Learning objectives describe what learners should be able to do at the end of each lesson (and are be able to do at the end of each lesson (and are testable via the final tests in the LMS). testable via the final tests in the LMS).

“Identify the key elements of the top-down approach to predict precipitation type and amounts in the watch and warning phases.”

What are Performance Objectives? What are Performance Objectives? What are Performance Objectives? What are Performance Objectives?

• Performance objectives are defined for each IC.Performance objectives are defined for each IC.

• Performance objectives provide precise, Performance objectives provide precise, measurable statements of the behaviors that measurable statements of the behaviors that course participants will be able to demonstrate on course participants will be able to demonstrate on the job. the job.

“For a given event, be able to disseminate pertinent products and event information to the user community in a timely fashion and update that information at appropriate intervals.”

Interactivity Increases Knowledge Interactivity Increases Knowledge RetentionRetention

Interactivity Increases Knowledge Interactivity Increases Knowledge RetentionRetention

JOB SHEET JOB SHEET (Optional, ~15 min)(Optional, ~15 min)

SEPARATE MINI-CASE – SEPARATE MINI-CASE – Review ModeReview Mode

Throughout Presentations

+ With

What are Job Sheets?What are Job Sheets?What are Job Sheets?What are Job Sheets?

• Application with 10 mini-cases on WES Application with 10 mini-cases on WES – Case Study Mode Case Study Mode

• One job sheet per lesson (IC 5-7)One job sheet per lesson (IC 5-7)

• Several job sheets can be applied to Several job sheets can be applied to each caseeach case

• Need new WES OB 8.3 localization Need new WES OB 8.3 localization

Job Sheets—An ExampleJob Sheets—An ExampleJob Sheets—An ExampleJob Sheets—An Example

What about IC 1?What about IC 1?What about IC 1?What about IC 1?

What are the details of IC 2?What are the details of IC 2?““Winter Weather Products and Services”Winter Weather Products and Services”

What are the details of IC 2?What are the details of IC 2?““Winter Weather Products and Services”Winter Weather Products and Services”

• Lesson 1: Why certain Lesson 1: Why certain products are issued (New products are issued (New simplification of Warnings)simplification of Warnings)

• Lesson 2: What are the key Lesson 2: What are the key elements of collaboration?elements of collaboration?

Cooperate Collaborate

Communicate

Major changes to IC 2 lesson 1Major changes to IC 2 lesson 1Major changes to IC 2 lesson 1Major changes to IC 2 lesson 1

• New winter warning policy for 2008/2009New winter warning policy for 2008/2009• Simplified winter warningsSimplified winter warnings• Every forecaster should take this lessonEvery forecaster should take this lesson

Details of IC 3:Details of IC 3:““Societal Impacts of Winter Weather”Societal Impacts of Winter Weather”

Details of IC 3:Details of IC 3:““Societal Impacts of Winter Weather”Societal Impacts of Winter Weather”

• Lesson 1: Significant Lesson 1: Significant impacts to usersimpacts to users

• Lesson 2: User Lesson 2: User issues, constraints, issues, constraints, and responsesand responses

• Lesson 3: Conveying Lesson 3: Conveying forecast confidence forecast confidence

2006 version2006 version2006 version2006 version

IC 3 has been completely overhauled:IC 3 has been completely overhauled:““User Needs to Mitigate Societal ImpactsUser Needs to Mitigate Societal Impacts””

IC 3 has been completely overhauled:IC 3 has been completely overhauled:““User Needs to Mitigate Societal ImpactsUser Needs to Mitigate Societal Impacts””

• Lesson 1Lesson 1: : overviewoverview

• Lesson 2Lesson 2: : Weather Impacts and Weather Impacts and Surface Transportation Surface Transportation Management StrategiesManagement Strategies

• Lesson 3Lesson 3: : Tools for Monitoring Road Tools for Monitoring Road Weather Weather

• Lesson 4Lesson 4: : The NWS-Ground The NWS-Ground Transportation PartnershipTransportation Partnership

• Lesson 5Lesson 5: : Comparing Timelines of Comparing Timelines of NWS Products and Ground NWS Products and Ground Transportation Mitigation Transportation Mitigation Strategy ImplementationStrategy Implementation

Replaced by the 2008 versionReplaced by the 2008 versionReplaced by the 2008 versionReplaced by the 2008 version

IC 3 lesson 1IC 3 lesson 1IC 3 lesson 1IC 3 lesson 1

Weather Impact CategoriesWeather Impact CategoriesWeather Impact CategoriesWeather Impact Categories

Four general categories of weather impacts on roadsFour general categories of weather impacts on roads

Reduced pavement friction

Lowered visibilities

Obstructed lanes

Damaged road infrastructure

Sub-Advisory Events: Event Significance Sub-Advisory Events: Event Significance Depends Primarily on Two Conditions Depends Primarily on Two Conditions

Sub-Advisory Events: Event Significance Sub-Advisory Events: Event Significance Depends Primarily on Two Conditions Depends Primarily on Two Conditions

Snow melts initially when it falls And refreezes as RSTs fall below freezing

Can cause significant accidents

• Ice bonding to pavementIce bonding to pavement

• Rapid visibility decrease (to <1 mile, especially < ¼ mile)Rapid visibility decrease (to <1 mile, especially < ¼ mile)

A rapid decrease in visibility

Road Surface Energy Balance Terms: Heat Flux Road Surface Energy Balance Terms: Heat Flux between the Atmosphere, Road, & Nearby Soilbetween the Atmosphere, Road, & Nearby Soil

Road Surface Energy Balance Terms: Heat Flux Road Surface Energy Balance Terms: Heat Flux between the Atmosphere, Road, & Nearby Soilbetween the Atmosphere, Road, & Nearby Soil

• Heat flux important when strong temperature gradients existHeat flux important when strong temperature gradients exist• Two most important situations for road weather:Two most important situations for road weather:

– Change in air mass causes TChange in air mass causes Tairair to rapidly decrease below freezing to rapidly decrease below freezing

– Solar heating warms RSTs above freezing while TSolar heating warms RSTs above freezing while Tairair stays below freezing stays below freezing

• Impacts of heat flux on RSTs most visible when comparing Impacts of heat flux on RSTs most visible when comparing obs from bridges and ground-level roadsobs from bridges and ground-level roads

Tsoil

Tair

RSTsfc RSTbridge

RST difference likelydue to heat flux

RST difference likelydue to heat flux

From Moore and Miller (2008)

Road Weather SensorsRoad Weather SensorsRoad Weather SensorsRoad Weather Sensors

Details of IC 4: Details of IC 4: ““Climatology of Winter Storms”Climatology of Winter Storms”

Details of IC 4: Details of IC 4: ““Climatology of Winter Storms”Climatology of Winter Storms”

• Lesson 1: Using Lesson 1: Using CPC and CDC CPC and CDC web sites to web sites to assess the large assess the large scale patternscale pattern

• In In 20082008::Four lesson parts Four lesson parts streamlined to streamlined to threethree

Details of IC 4: Details of IC 4: ““Climatology of Winter Storms” (cont.)Climatology of Winter Storms” (cont.)


• Lesson 2 Lesson 2 – Using climatological Using climatological

anomalies to determine anomalies to determine potential winter wx impactspotential winter wx impacts



• Lesson 3Lesson 3– Terrain-driven (topographic) Terrain-driven (topographic)

impactsimpacts

• In 2008In 2008added discussion on added discussion on applications of local applications of local modelingmodeling

Details of IC 5: Details of IC 5: ““Precipitation Forcing Mechanisms”Precipitation Forcing Mechanisms”

Details of IC 5: Details of IC 5: ““Precipitation Forcing Mechanisms”Precipitation Forcing Mechanisms”

• 7 lessons (5 required, 2 optional)7 lessons (5 required, 2 optional)• Lesson 1 (4 objectives)Lesson 1 (4 objectives)

300 mb

350 mb

400 mb450

mb

IC 5 lesson 1: IC 5 lesson 1: Completely overhauled for 2008: new materialCompletely overhauled for 2008: new material

IC 5 lesson 1: IC 5 lesson 1: Completely overhauled for 2008: new materialCompletely overhauled for 2008: new material

• Using Potential Vorticity in OperationsUsing Potential Vorticity in Operations• Forecasters encouraged to review this lessonForecasters encouraged to review this lesson

300 mb

350 mb

400 mb450

mb

What are IC 5’s Learning Objectives? (cont.)What are IC 5’s Learning Objectives? (cont.)What are IC 5’s Learning Objectives? (cont.)What are IC 5’s Learning Objectives? (cont.)

• Frontogenesis detailsFrontogenesis details

Lesson 2 (Diagnosis of mesoscale internal forcing)

) - 2 cos (D | | ½ pF

What are IC 5’s Learning Objectives? (cont.)What are IC 5’s Learning Objectives? (cont.)What are IC 5’s Learning Objectives? (cont.)What are IC 5’s Learning Objectives? (cont.)

• EPV rules!EPV rules!

Lesson 3 (Stability effects)

900 mb frontogenesis (shaded), 700-800 mb EPV (solid white), and 600 mb vertical motion (dotted magenta)

What are IC 5’s Learning Objectives?What are IC 5’s Learning Objectives?What are IC 5’s Learning Objectives?What are IC 5’s Learning Objectives?

• Changes in 2008 to include moderate frontal Changes in 2008 to include moderate frontal precipitation eventsprecipitation events

Lesson 4 (Structure of Frontal Bands)

Details of IC 5: Details of IC 5: Precipitation Forcing Mechanisms (cont.)Precipitation Forcing Mechanisms (cont.)


From Lindstrom, Bachmeier, and Martin,

Lesson 5 (Structure of TROWALS)

1.1. Identify main components of the TROWAL conceptual Identify main components of the TROWAL conceptual model and the diagnostics for analysis.model and the diagnostics for analysis.



Lesson 6 (External forcing: topographic effects)



• An optional lessonAn optional lesson• Developed by Tom Niziol (WFO BUF)Developed by Tom Niziol (WFO BUF)

Lesson 7 (Externally produced forcing: Lake Effects)

Horizontal Roll Multiple Banding

Details of IC 6: Details of IC 6: Forecasting P-type and QPFForecasting P-type and QPF

Details of IC 6: Details of IC 6: Forecasting P-type and QPFForecasting P-type and QPF

• 5 Lessons5 Lessons• Lesson 1: Snow and Lesson 1: Snow and

ice microphysicsice microphysics• Lesson 2: P-type Lesson 2: P-type

algorithmsalgorithms– Lots of strengths and Lots of strengths and

weaknesses of various p-weaknesses of various p-type algorithmstype algorithms

– Minor changes in 2008 to Minor changes in 2008 to include AWIPS availability include AWIPS availability

Bourgouin TechniqueBourgouin Technique

Details of IC 6: Details of IC 6: Forecasting P-type and QPF (cont.)Forecasting P-type and QPF (cont.)

Details of IC 6: Details of IC 6: Forecasting P-type and QPF (cont.)Forecasting P-type and QPF (cont.)

• Lesson 3: Using Lesson 3: Using Model Data to Model Data to Describe Describe Uncertainty in Uncertainty in ForecastingForecasting

• In 2008:In 2008:Changes to add Changes to add info on current info on current Ensemble systemsEnsemble systems

Details of IC6:Details of IC6:Forecasting P-type and QPF (contd)Forecasting P-type and QPF (contd)

Details of IC6:Details of IC6:Forecasting P-type and QPF (contd)Forecasting P-type and QPF (contd)

• Lesson 5: Snow depth Lesson 5: Snow depth forecastingforecasting

• In 2008:In 2008:Changes to add more Changes to add more information on the Roebber information on the Roebber technique and verificationtechnique and verification

Snow Ratio as a Function of Source Layer

Temperature

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Temperature ->

Sn

ow

Ra

io -

>

Base Ratio

Details of IC 7Details of IC 7Monitoring System EvolutionMonitoring System Evolution

Details of IC 7Details of IC 7Monitoring System EvolutionMonitoring System Evolution

• 5 lessons5 lessons• Focus on observablesFocus on observables

Banacos (2005)

Details of IC 8Details of IC 8Winter Wx WES SimulationsWinter Wx WES Simulations

Details of IC 8Details of IC 8Winter Wx WES SimulationsWinter Wx WES Simulations

• Case uses WES8.3 LocalizationsCase uses WES8.3 Localizations• Watch, Warning, and Monitoring PhasesWatch, Warning, and Monitoring Phases• Chance to apply learning objectives from other ICsChance to apply learning objectives from other ICs• Can satisfy your winter weather WES requirementsCan satisfy your winter weather WES requirements

AWOC winter development plansAWOC winter development plansAWOC winter development plansAWOC winter development plans

Development Plan in the LMS

Target audience notes

WDTB AWOC Winter FY08

Forecasters in the middle of AWOC winter 2008

IC’s 1-8 v 2007

WDTB AWOC Winter FY09

Forecasters that have not taken AWOC winter

DLOC 2008/2009 graduates

IC’s 1-8

WDTB AWOC Winter updates only 2008-2009

Forecasters having taken AWOC winter previously

IC’s 2.1, 3, 5.1

Development Plans in the LMSDevelopment Plans in the LMSDevelopment Plans in the LMSDevelopment Plans in the LMS

Notes about development plansNotes about development plansNotes about development plansNotes about development plans

• You can create your own development plansYou can create your own development plans• No development plan needed to just take IC2.1No development plan needed to just take IC2.1• Development plan Development plan WDTB Road Weather TrainingWDTB Road Weather Training

– It’s own course based on IC3It’s own course based on IC3

• Don’t forget about optional lessonsDon’t forget about optional lessons– E.g., Topographic forcingE.g., Topographic forcing– Lake EffectsLake Effects

Section 3: What is Your Responsibility?Section 3: What is Your Responsibility?Section 3: What is Your Responsibility?Section 3: What is Your Responsibility?

1. Meeting with students to discuss 1. Meeting with students to discuss development plan details. development plan details. √√

2. Meeting with MIC to plan an 2. Meeting with MIC to plan an effective course of action (support)effective course of action (support) √√

3. Complete ICs 1-7 (including surveys 3. Complete ICs 1-7 (including surveys and tests)and tests) √√

4. Complete IC 8 (WES simulation)4. Complete IC 8 (WES simulation)√√

5. Augment training with any local 5. Augment training with any local training plans training plans √√

6. Apply learning with real on-job 6. Apply learning with real on-job performanceperformance √√

The Transfer Partnership in AWOCThe Transfer Partnership in AWOCThe Transfer Partnership in AWOCThe Transfer Partnership in AWOC

WDTBWDTB

FacilitatorFacilitatorStudentStudent

AWOC

ManagementManagement

AWOC

Course Completion RequirementsCourse Completion RequirementsCourse Completion RequirementsCourse Completion Requirements

• Complete All 25 required Complete All 25 required lessons in FY09 lessons in FY09 Development PlanDevelopment Plan– Complete LMS End of Course Complete LMS End of Course

TestTest

• 2 WES simulations2 WES simulations

• Notify us at Notify us at [email protected] [email protected] when completion when completion certificate is awarded certificate is awarded

Section 4: TimelinesSection 4: TimelinesAWOC Winter Wx Delivery ScheduleAWOC Winter Wx Delivery Schedule

Section 4: TimelinesSection 4: TimelinesAWOC Winter Wx Delivery ScheduleAWOC Winter Wx Delivery Schedule

S O N D J F M A M J J S O N D J F M A M J J

Forecasters Complete Winter Weather ICs

2008-09 2008-09 Season Season

Development for FY10 version

Who Can Help?Who Can Help?Who Can Help?Who Can Help?

• WDTB (LMS problems, etc.)WDTB (LMS problems, etc.)– 405-325-3190 (Linda Curtis, ASA)405-325-3190 (Linda Curtis, ASA)– 405-325-2997 (Brad)405-325-2997 (Brad)– 405-325-2996 (Jim)405-325-2996 (Jim)

• [email protected] [email protected] – ““How does this module work?”How does this module work?”

• [email protected]@wdtb.noaa.gov– ““I’ve got a question about this nomogram on ICI’ve got a question about this nomogram on IC66””

• WDTB.NOAA.GOVWDTB.NOAA.GOV

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