oriental bank, 1q fy 2014

12
 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report  1  Particulars ( ` cr) 1QFY14 4QFY13 % chg (qoq) 1QFY13 % chg (yoy) NII 1,307 1,214 7.7 1,126 16.1 Pre-prov. profit 1,088 947 15.0 897  21.4 PAT 353 308 14.8 391 (9.7)  Source: Company, Angel Research Oriental Bank of Commerce reported a healthy operating performance for the quarter with NII growth of 16.1% yoy. The bank continued to face asset quality pressure during the quarter, as slippages remained high at 2.4%. The provisioning expenses for the bank grew by 60.4%, resulting in bottom-line de-growth of 9.7% yoy. Moderate business growth; NIM improves marginally: The ba nk’ s busine ss growth was moderate during the quarter, as advances grew by 12.4% yoy largely aided by healthy 22.1% yoy growth in retail loan book.  On the deposits front, growth was lower at 11.5% yoy, mostly due to shedding of high cost bulk deposits (now stand at 17.7% of the overall deposits as against 20.3% in 4QFY2013). CASA deposits too grew at a moderate pace of 10.1% yoy. The CASA ratio declined by 81bp qoq to 23.7%. Sequentially, cost of deposits declined marginally by 8bp to 7.7% and yield on advances increased by 5bp to 12.0%. Consequently, the NIM for the bank improved 8bp qoq to 2.9%.  The bank’s other income excluding treasury de-grew by 21.2% yoy. The treasury income came in strong at  ` 206cr compared to  ` 13cr loss in 1QFY2013. On the asset quality front, despite high slippages (at  ` 762cr or 2.4%), better recoveries and upgrades performance (at  ` 385cr as compared to  ` 249cr for 4QFY2013) aided the bank to limit the increase in Gross and Net NPA levels to 2.8% and 1.2% qoq, respectively. The PCR (incl. technical write-offs) for the bank improved 88bp qoq to 63.9%. Going ahead, the bank expects slippages of ~  ` 750-800cr per quarter for the remaining quarters of FY2014. During the quarter, the bank restructured advances worth  ` 419cr, thereby taking its total outstanding restructuring book to  ` 10,268cr. The restructuring pipeli ne for the bank stands at  ` 1,400cr. Outlook and valuation:  The bank has been witnessing asset quality pressures on its loan book lately. We remain wary of the incremental asset quality and margins concerns for the bank, as we take into consideration its high exposure to stressed sectors, its predominantly wholesale based funding profile and recent macro developments amidst an overall weak economic environment. Overall, we have a cautious view on the sector, with a positive bias towards more retail-oriented banks, on both assets as well as on liabilities. Hence, we recommend a neutral rating on the stock. Key financia ls (standalon e) Y/E March ( ` cr) FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E NII 4,216 4,701 5,336 5,878 % chg 0.9 11.5 13.5 10.2 Net profit 1,147 1,328 1,362 1,532 % chg (23.7) 15.8 2.5 12.5 NIM (%) 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5 EPS ( ` ) 39.3 45.5 46.7 52.5 P/E (x) 3.5 3.0 2.9 2.6 P/ABV (x) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 RoA (%) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 RoE (%) 10.8 11.5 10.8 11.1  Source: Company, Ang el Research; Note: CMP as of August 6, 20 13  NEUTRAL CMP  ` 137 Target Price - Investment Period - Stock Info Sector Banking Market Cap (  ` cr) 4,007 Beta 1.2 52 Week High / Low 368/134  Avg. Daily Volume 105,354 Face Value (  ` ) 10 BSE Sensex 18,733 Nifty 5,542 Reuters Code ORBC.BO Bloomberg Code OBC@IN Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 58.0 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 24.6 FII / NRIs / OCBs 10.3 Indian Public / Others 7.1  Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex (4.8) 7.6 3.2 OBC (46.6) (41.5) (64.8) Vaibhav Agrawal 022 – 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 [email protected] Sourabh Taparia 022 – 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 [email protected] Harshal Patkar 022 – 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 [email protected] Oriental Bank of Commerce Performance Highlights 1QFY2014 Result Update | Banking  Aug 6, 2013  

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7/27/2019 Oriental Bank, 1Q FY 2014

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/oriental-bank-1q-fy-2014 1/11

 

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report  1

 

Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14 4QFY13 % chg (qoq) 1QFY13 % chg (yoy)

NII 1,307 1,214 7.7 1,126 16.1

Pre-prov. profit 1,088 947 15.0 897  21.4

PAT 353 308 14.8 391 (9.7)

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Oriental Bank of Commerce reported a healthy operating performance forthe quarter with NII growth of 16.1% yoy. The bank continued to face assetquality pressure during the quarter, as slippages remained high at 2.4%. Theprovisioning expenses for the bank grew by 60.4%, resulting in bottom-line

de-growth of 9.7% yoy.Moderate business growth; NIM improves marginally: The bank’s business growthwas moderate during the quarter, as advances grew by 12.4% yoy largely aided by healthy 22.1% yoy growth in retail loan book. On the deposits front,growth was lower at 11.5% yoy, mostly due to shedding of high cost bulkdeposits (now stand at 17.7% of the overall deposits as against 20.3% in4QFY2013). CASA deposits too grew at a moderate pace of 10.1% yoy. TheCASA ratio declined by 81bp qoq to 23.7%. Sequentially, cost of depositsdeclined marginally by 8bp to 7.7% and yield on advances increased by 5bpto 12.0%. Consequently, the NIM for the bank improved 8bp qoq to 2.9%. The bank’s other income excluding treasury de-grew by 21.2% yoy. Thetreasury income came in strong at  ` 206cr compared to  ` 13cr loss in

1QFY2013. On the asset quality front, despite high slippages (at ` 

762cr or2.4%), better recoveries and upgrades performance (at  ` 385cr as comparedto  ` 249cr for 4QFY2013) aided the bank to limit the increase in Gross andNet NPA levels to 2.8% and 1.2% qoq, respectively. The PCR (incl. technicalwrite-offs) for the bank improved 88bp qoq to 63.9%. Going ahead, the bankexpects slippages of ~ ` 750-800cr per quarter for the remaining quarters ofFY2014. During the quarter, the bank restructured advances worth  ` 419cr,thereby taking its total outstanding restructuring book to  ` 10,268cr. Therestructuring pipeline for the bank stands at  ` 1,400cr.

Outlook and valuation: The bank has been witnessing asset quality pressures on its

loan book lately. We remain wary of the incremental asset quality and margins

concerns for the bank, as we take into consideration its high exposure to stressed

sectors, its predominantly wholesale based funding profile and recent macro

developments amidst an overall weak economic environment. Overall, we have a

cautious view on the sector, with a positive bias towards more retail-oriented

banks, on both assets as well as on liabilities. Hence, we recommend a neutral

rating on the stock.

Key financials (standalone)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E

NII 4,216 4,701 5,336 5,878

% chg 0.9 11.5 13.5 10.2

Net profit 1,147 1,328 1,362 1,532

% chg (23.7) 15.8 2.5 12.5

NIM (%) 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5

EPS (`) 39.3 45.5 46.7 52.5

P/E (x) 3.5 3.0 2.9 2.6

P/ABV (x) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

RoA (%) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6

RoE (%) 10.8 11.5 10.8 11.1

 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of August 6, 2013 

NEUTRALCMP  ` 137

Target Price - 

Investment Period -

Stock Info

Sector Banking

Market Cap ( `  cr) 4,007

Beta 1.2

52 Week High / Low 368/134

 Avg. Daily Volume 105,354

Face Value ( ` 

) 10BSE Sensex 18,733

Nifty 5,542

Reuters Code ORBC.BO

Bloomberg Code OBC@IN

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 58.0

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 24.6

FII / NRIs / OCBs 10.3

Indian Public / Others 7.1

 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex (4.8) 7.6 3.2

OBC (46.6) (41.5) (64.8)

Vaibhav Agrawal

022 – 3935 7800 Ext: 6808

[email protected]

Sourabh Taparia

022 – 3935 7800 Ext: 6872

[email protected]

Harshal Patkar

022 – 3935 7800 Ext: 6847

[email protected]

Oriental Bank of Commerce

Performance Highlights

1QFY2014 Result Update | Banking

 Aug 6, 2013

 

7/27/2019 Oriental Bank, 1Q FY 2014

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 Oriental Bank of Commerce | 1QFY2014 Result Update

 

 August 6, 2013  2

Exhibit 1: 1QFY2014 performance (standalone)

Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14 4QFY13 % chg (qoq) 1QFY13 % chg (yoy) FY2013 FY2012 % chg

Interest earned 4,718 4,534 4.0 4,287 10.0 17,705 15,815 12.0

- on Advances / Bills 3,635 3,494  4.0 3,332 9.1 13,758 12,075 13.9- on investments 1,045 969 7.9 946 10.5 3,854 3,385 13.8

- on balance with RBI & others 30 12 155.9 8  258.9 31 319 (90.1)

- on others 7 60 (88.2) 1 589.3 61 36 69.9

Interest Expended 3,411 3,321 2.7 3,161 7.9 13,004 11,599 12.1

Net Interest Income 1,307 1,214 7.7 1,126 16.1 4,701 4,216 11.5

Other income 538 462 16.5 408 31.7 1,655 1,240 33.4

Other income excl. treasury 332 394 (15.5) 422 (21.2) 1,486 1,071 38.8

- Fee Income 193 229 (15.8) 170 13.5 766 726 5.5

- Treasury Income. 206 68  201.8 (13) NA 169 169 (0.4)

- Others 140 165 (15.1) 252 (44.5) 720 345 108.7

Operating income 1,845 1,675 10.1 1,534 20.3 6,356 5,456 16.5

Operating expenses 757 729 3.8 638 18.7 2,665 2,315 15.1

- Employee expenses 450 443 1.7 376 19.7 1,576 1,357 16.2

- Other Opex 306 286 7.1 262 17.2 1,089 959 13.6

Pre-provision Profit 1,088 947 15.0 897 21.4 3,691 3,141 17.5

Provisions & contingencies 533 759 (29.8) 332 60.4 2,155 1,715 25.6

- Provisions for NPAs 345 499 (30.8) 430 (19.8) 1,581 1,079  46.6

- Provisions for Investments 32 49 (34.5) (132) NA (74) 285 NA

- Other Provisions 156 212 (26.3) 34 361.2 648 351 84.7

PBT 556 188 195.9 564 (1.6) 1,536 1,426 7.7

Provision for Tax 202 (120) NA 173 16.8 208 284 (26.8)

PAT 353 308 14.8 391 (9.7) 1,328 1,142 16.3

Effective Tax Rate (%) 36.4 (64.0) 10040bp 30.7 574bp 13.5 19.9 (638)bp

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: 1QFY2014 – Actual vs. Angel estimates

Particulars (` cr) Actual Estimates Var. (%)

Net interest income 1,307 1,247  4.8

Other income 538 331 62.6

Operating income 1,845 1,578 16.9

Operating expenses 757 683 10.9

Pre-prov. profit 1,088 895 21.6

Provisions & cont. 533 456 16.8

PBT 556 439  26.6

Prov. for taxes 202 114 77.2

PAT 353 325 8.8

 Source: Company, Angel Research

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 Oriental Bank of Commerce | 1QFY2014 Result Update

 

 August 6, 2013  3

Exhibit 3: 1QFY2014 performance (standalone)

Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14 4QFY13 % chg (qoq) 1QFY13 % chg (yoy)

 Advances ( `  cr) 127,995 128,955 (0.7) 113,896 12.4

Deposits ( ` cr) 176,275 175,898 0.2 158,152 11.5Credit-to-Deposit Ratio (%) 72.6 73.3 (70)bp 72.0 59bp

Current deposits ( ` cr) 10,551 11,663 (9.5) 9,899 6.6

Saving deposits ( `  cr) 31,293 31,522 (0.7) 28,092 11.4

CASA deposits ( ` cr) 41,844 43,185 (3.1) 37,990 10.1

CASA ratio (%) 23.7 24.6 (81)bp 24.0 (28)bp

CAR (%) 12.0 12.0 0bp 12.3 (25)bp

Tier 1 CAR (%) 9.2 9.2 0bp 9.9 (74)bp

Profitability Ratios (%)

Cost of deposits 7.7 7.8 (8)bp 8.0 (28)bp

Yield on advances 12.0 12.0 5bp 12.4 (35)bp

Yield on investments 7.4 7.4 6bp 7.5 (4)bp

Yield on funds 9.5 9.5 (6)bp 9.5 (6)bp

Cost of funds 6.9 6.9 (4)bp 7.0 (19)bp

Reported NIM 2.9 2.8 8bp 2.8 11bp

Cost-to-income ratio 41.0 43.5 (249)bp 41.6 (55)bp

Asset quality

Gross NPAs ( ` cr) 4,303 4,184  2.8 3,378  27.4

Gross NPAs (%) 3.4 3.2 15bp 3.0 39bp

Net NPAs ( `  cr) 2,936 2,903 1.2 2,306  27.3

Net NPAs (%) 2.3 2.3 7bp 2.1  29bp

Provision coverage ratio (%) 63.9 63.0 88bp 64.4 (54)bp

Slippage ratio (%) 2.4 3.7 (135)bp 2.5 (15)bp

NPA to avg. assets (%) 0.7 1.0 (33)bp 1.0 (27)bp

 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: PCR including technical write-offs

Business growth moderate; NIM higher by 8bp qoq

The business growth for the bank was moderate with advances growing by 12.4%

yoy and deposits growing by 11.5% yoy. The growth in advances was driven by 

healthy growth in retail book which grew by 22.1% yoy. The Management targets

to achieve a loan growth of 13% for FY2014. 

On the deposits front, growth was lower at 11.5% yoy mostly due to shedding of

high cost bulk deposits (now stand at 17.7% of the overall deposits as against

20.3% in 4QFY2013). CASA deposits too grew at a moderate pace of 10.1%

yoy, with savings deposits growing by 11.4% yoy and current account deposits

growing by 6.6% yoy. CASA ratio declined 81bp qoq and 28bp yoy to 23.7%. 

Sequentially, cost of deposits declined marginally by 8bp to 7.7% on account of

stable CASA ratio and shedding of high cost bulk deposits. Yield on advances for

the bank increased by 5bp to 12.0%. Consequently, the NIM for the bank

improved 8bp qoq to 2.9%.

7/27/2019 Oriental Bank, 1Q FY 2014

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 Oriental Bank of Commerce | 1QFY2014 Result Update

 

 August 6, 2013  4

Exhibit 4: Business growth moderate

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 5: CASA ratio declines sequentially 

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 6: Lower CoD due to shedding off of bulk deposits

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 7: NIM improves 8bp qoq

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Subdued performance on non-interest income (excl. treasury)

front

During the quarter, the bank’s non-interest income (excluding treasury) registered

a decline of 21.2% yoy to  ` 332cr. The performance on the CEB front was

moderate, with CEB income increasing by 13.5% yoy to  ` 193cr. The treasury 

income came in strong at  ` 206cr compared to a  ` 13cr loss in 1QFY2013, thereby 

aiding strong growth of 31.7% yoy in overall other income.

Slippages remain high; however, better recoveries and upgrades

performance results in moderate increase in NPA levels

During the quarter, the bank continued to face asset quality pressure, as

slippages remained high at  ` 762cr (annualized slippage rate of 2.4%) as

compared to  ` 1,040 in 4QFY2013 and  ` 707cr in 1QFY2013. Performance

on recoveries and upgrades for the bank came in healthy at  ` 385cr for the

quarter as compared to  ` 249cr for 4QFY2013. Going ahead, the bank

expects slippages of ~ ` 750-800cr per quarter for the remaining quarters of

FY2014. Despite high slippages, better recoveries and upgrades performance

aided the bank to limit the increase in Gross and Net NPA levels to 2.8% and

1.2% qoq, respectively. Gross NPA stood at 3.4% (3.2% for 4QFY2013), while

   1   6 .   0 

   1   2 .   7 

   1   1 .   7 

   1   5 .   2 

   1   2 .   4 

   9 .   4 

   9 .   8 

   7 .   9 

   1   2 .   8 

   1   1 .   5 

72.071.8

73.4 73.3

72.6

70.0

72.0

74.0

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14

 Adv. yoy chg (%) Dep. yoy chg (%) CDR (%, RHS)

   2   4 .   0 

   2   4 .   1 

   2   3 .   9 

   2   4 .   6 

   2   3 .   7 

12.5

15.9 15.6

14.8

10.1

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

20.0

21.5

23.0

24.5

26.0

1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14

CASA ratio CASA yoy growth (%, RHS)

7.98 7.93

7.80 7.787.70

7.00

7.50

8.00

1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14

2.79 2.792.84 2.82

2.90

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14

(%)

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 Oriental Bank of Commerce | 1QFY2014 Result Update

 

 August 6, 2013  5

the net NPA for the bank remained flat at 2.3%. The PCR (incl. technical

write-offs) for the bank increased by 88bp qoq to 63.9%.

During the quarter, the bank restructured advances worth  ` 419cr, thereby 

taking its total outstanding restructuring book to  ` 10,268cr. The restructuring

pipeline for the bank is  ` 1,400cr for the next quarter. 

Exhibit 8: NPA ratios trend

 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: PCR incl. technical write-offs

Exhibit 9: Slippages remain high

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 10: Opex trends

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 11: Cost ratios trends

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Investment concerns

Modest CASA franchise and fee income

The bank’s relatively higher presence in metro and urban areas, compared to

other PSBs, exposes it to increased competition, leading to lower CASA ratio. As a

result, it is relatively more exposed to NIM pressures on account of its CASA ratio

being one of the lowest amongst peers (23.7% as of 1QFY2014). The bank’s fee

income, at 0.8% of average assets in FY2013, is also on the lower side.

   3 .   0 

   2 .   9 

   3 .   0 

   3 .   2 

   3 .   4 

   2 .   1 

   2 .   0 

   2 .   1 

   2 .   3 

   2 .   3 

64.4 64.5 63.663.0

63.9

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14

Gross NPAs (%) Net NPAs (%) PCR (%, RHS)

   2 .   5 

   2 .   3 

   2 .   9 

   3 .   7 

   2 .   4 

1.0

0.7

0.7

1.0

0.7

-

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14

Slippages (%) Credit cost (%, RHS)

   3   7   6 

   3   6   6 

   3   9   1 

   4   4   3 

   4   5   0 

   2   6   2

 

   2   7   6

 

   2   6   5

 

   2

   8   6 

   3   0   6 

17.731.7

7.5

11.9 19.7

(30.0)

(10.0)

10.0

30.0

50.0

70.0

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14

Staff Exp (` cr) Other opex (` cr) Staff Exp (yoy gr.)-RHS

41.6 41.1 41.5 43.5 41.0

1.4

1.41.4

1.5 1.5

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.6

39.0

40.0

41.0

42.0

43.0

44.0

1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14

CIR (%) Opex to average assets (%, RHS)

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 Oriental Bank of Commerce | 1QFY2014 Result Update

 

 August 6, 2013  6

Outlook and valuation

The bank has been witnessing asset quality pressures on its loan book lately. We

remain wary of the incremental asset quality and margin concerns for the bank, as

we take into consideration its high exposure to stressed sectors, its predominantly 

wholesale based funding profile and recent macro developments amidst an overall

weak economic environment. Overall, we have a cautious view on the sector, with

a positive bias towards more retail-oriented banks, on both assets as well as on

liabilities. Hence, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock.

Exhibit 12: Key assumptions

Particulars (%)Earlier estimates Revised estimates

FY2014 FY2015 FY2014 FY2015

Credit growth 15.0 15.0 13.0 15.0

Deposit growth 11.0 13.0 11.0 13.0CASA ratio 24.5 24.4 24.5 24.4

NIMs 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.5

Other income growth (13.1) 4.7 (4.4) (0.1)

Growth in staff expenses 10.0 7.5 15.0 7.5

Growth in other expenses 7.5 7.5 15.0 7.5

Slippages 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.6

Coverage ratio 66.0 67.5 62.5 65.0

 Source: Angel Research

Exhibit 13: Change in estimates

Particulars (` cr)FY2014 FY2015

Earlierestimates

Revisedestimates

Var. (%)Earlier

estimatesRevised

estimatesVar. (%)

NII 5,351 5,336 (0.3) 6,170 5,878 (4.7)

Non-interest income 1,439 1,581 9.9 1,506 1,580  4.9

Operating income 6,790 6,918 1.9 7,676 7,459 (2.8)

Operating expenses 2,904 3,065 5.5 3,122 3,295 5.5

Pre-prov. profit 3,885 3,853 (0.8) 4,553 4,164 (8.6)

Provisions & cont. 1,690 1,790 5.9 1,801 1,843  2.3

PBT 2,195 2,063 (6.0) 2,752 2,321 (15.7)

Prov. for taxes 571 701  22.8 936 789 (15.7)

PAT 1,625 1,362 (16.2) 1,817 1,532 (15.7)

 Source: Angel Research

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 Oriental Bank of Commerce | 1QFY2014 Result Update

 

 August 6, 2013  7

Exhibit 14: P/ABV band

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 15: Recommendation summary  

Company Reco.CMP

(`)Tgt. price

(`)Upside

(%)FY2014EP/ABV (x)

FY2014ETgt P/ABV (x)

FY2014EP/E (x)

FY2012-14EEPS CAGR (%)

FY2014ERoA (%)

FY2014ERoE (%)

 AxisBk Buy 1,090 1,255 15 1.2 1.4 6.9 19.1 1.6 18.1

FedBk Neutral 338 - - 0.8 - 6.5 2.9 1.0 12.3

HDFCBk Buy 608 745 23 2.9 3.5 13.5 26.3 1.9 22.8

ICICIBk* Buy 866 1,038 20 1.2 1.5 9.0 15.8 1.6 15.4

SIB Neutral 20 - - 0.8 - 4.8 5.7 0.9 16.2

YesBk Neutral 274 - - 1.2 - 5.5 16.9 1.3 22.8

 AllBk Neutral 67 - - 0.3 - 2.2 12.6 0.6 12.4 AndhBk Reduce 57 51 (10) 0.4 0.4 3.4 (15.1) 0.5 10.0

BOB Neutral 488 - - 0.6 - 3.9 8.3 0.8 14.2

BOI Neutral 166 - - 0.4 - 2.7 16.2 0.7 13.9

BOM Neutral 40 - - 0.5 - 3.4 5.4 0.5 14.1

CanBk Neutral 239 - - 0.4 - 4.0 (3.4) 0.6 10.4

CentBk Reduce 54 50 (8) 0.5 0.5 3.4 40.1 0.5 12.8

CorpBk Neutral 268 - - 0.3 - 2.7 2.3 0.7 13.5

DenaBk Neutral 45 - - 0.3 - 2.1 (3.3) 0.6 13.2

IDBI# Neutral 57 - - 0.3 - 2.6 25.1 0.8 13.3

IndBk Neutral 70 - - 0.3 - 2.1 (4.2) 0.8 12.4

IOB Neutral 39 - - 0.3 - 2.5 57.5 0.5 10.5

J&KBk Neutral 1,063 - - 0.8 - 5.2 (3.5) 1.3 16.3

OBC Neutral 137 - - 0.3 - 2.6 7.4 0.6 11.1

PNB Neutral 521 - - 0.5 - 3.2 10.8 1.0 15.7

SBI* Neutral 1,641 - - 0.9 - 5.8 17.5 1.0 17.0

SynBk Neutral 75 - - 0.4 - 3.2 (16.0) 0.6 12.8

UcoBk Neutral 54 - - 0.5 - 3.5 66.4 0.6 13.5

UnionBk Neutral 113 - - 0.4 - 2.8 6.2 0.6 13.4

UtdBk Neutral 34 - - 0.3 - 1.7 54.6 0.6 14.7

 VijBk Neutral 36 - - 0.4 - 4.1 (0.4) 0.4 9.8

 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF

0

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700800

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      A    p    r  -      0      6

      D    e    c  -      0      6

      A    u    g  -      0      7

      A    p    r  -      0      8

      D    e    c  -      0      8

      A    u    g  -      0      9

      A    p    r  -      1      0

      D    e    c  -      1      0

      A    u    g  -      1      1

      A    p    r  -      1      2

      D    e    c  -      1      2

      A    u    g  -      1      3

Price (`) 0.4x 0.7x 1x 1.3x 1.6x

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 Oriental Bank of Commerce | 1QFY2014 Result Update

 

 August 6, 2013  8

Company Background

Oriental Bank of Commerce is a mid-sized PSU bank with a balance sheet size of

~ ` 2.0 lakhcr. The bank's branches are mainly concentrated in the northern states

(~60%), with majority being in the state of Punjab (~20%). The bank, unlike most

other PSU banks, has more than half of its branches located in the urban and

metropolitan areas (~55%).

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 Oriental Bank of Commerce | 1QFY2014 Result Update

 

 August 6, 2013  9

Income statement (standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

Net Interest Income 1,997 2,907 4,178 4,216 4,701 5,336 5,878

- YoY Growth (%) 18.7 45.6 43.7 0.9 11.5 13.5 10.2Other Income 1,071 1,200 960 1,240 1,655 1,581 1,580

- YoY Growth (%) 70.7 12.0 (20.0) 29.2 33.4 (4.4) (0.1)

Operating Income 3,068 4,107 5,138 5,456 6,356 6,918 7,459

- YoY Growth (%) 32.8 33.9 25.1 6.2 16.5 8.8 7.8

Operating Expenses 1,383 1,686 1,892 2,315 2,665 3,065 3,295

- YoY Growth (%)  28.1 21.9 12.2 22.4 15.1 15.0 7.5

Pre - Provision Profit 1,685 2,421 3,245 3,141 3,691 3,853 4,164

- YoY Growth (%) 37.0 43.7 34.0 (3.2) 17.5 4.4 8.1

Prov. & Cont. 526 818 1,208 1,715 2,155 1,790 1,843

- YoY Growth (%) (1748.9) 55.6 47.8 41.9 25.6 (16.9) 3.0

Profit Before Tax 1,159 1,604 2,037 1,426 1,536 2,063 2,321

- YoY Growth (%) (8.1) 38.3 27.0 (30.0) 7.7 34.3 12.5

Prov. for Taxation 254 469 534 279 208 701 789

- as a % of PBT   21.9 29.3 26.2 19.5 13.5 34.0 34.0

PAT 905 1,134 1,503 1,147 1,328 1,362 1,532

- YoY Growth (%) 7.6 25.3 32.5 (23.7) 15.8 2.5 12.5

Reported PAT 905 1,134 1,503 1,147 1,328 1,362 1,532

- YoY Growth (%) 156.3 25.3 32.5 (23.7) 15.8 2.5 12.5

Balance sheet (standalone)Y/E March (` cr) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

Share Capital 251 251 292 292 292 292 292

Reserves & Surplus 7,153 7,987 10,805 11,651 12,484 13,555 14,746

Deposits 98,369 120,258 139,054 155,965 175,898 195,246 220,628

- Growth (%) 26.3 22.3 15.6 12.2 12.8 11.0 13.0

Borrowings 722 2,337 2,589 3,059 4,454 5,115 5,760

Tier 2 Capital 2,250 2,550 3,050 2,200 3,225 3,144 3,066

Other Liab. & Prov. 3,838 4,048 5,553 4,368 4,345 5,024 5,937

Total Liabilities 112,583 137,431 161,343 177,535 200,697 222,376 250,429

Cash Balances 6,880 8,087 9,515 8,462 8,172 8,786 9,928Bank Balances 5,345 6,513 2,103 265 418 3,336 3,756

Investments 28,489 35,785 49,545 52,101 58,555 59,481 63,521

 Advances 68,500 83,489 95,908 111,978 128,955 145,719 167,577

- Growth (%) 25.5 21.9 14.9 16.8 15.2 13.0 15.0

Fixed Assets 1,384 1,394 1,398 1,421 1,227 1,319 1,441

Other Assets 1,984 2,162 2,874 3,308 3,370 3,735 4,206

Total Assets 112,583 137,431 161,343 177,535 200,697 222,376 250,429

- Growth (%) 24.1 22.1 17.4 10.0 13.0 10.8 12.6

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 Oriental Bank of Commerce | 1QFY2014 Result Update

 

 August 6, 2013  10

Ratio analysis (standalone) 

Y/E March FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

Profitability ratios (%) 

NIMs 2.0 2.4 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5Cost to Income Ratio 45.1 41.1 36.8 42.4 41.9 44.3 44.2

RoA  0.9 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6

RoE 14.8 16.5 17.1 10.8 11.5 10.8 11.1

B/S ratios (%)

CASA Ratio 23.7 25.0 24.6 24.1 24.6 24.5 24.4

Credit/Deposit Ratio 69.6 69.4 69.0 71.8 73.3 74.6 76.0

CAR  12.0 12.5 14.2 12.7 12.0 11.5 10.9

- Tier I 8.4 9.3 11.2 10.1 9.2 9.0 8.6

Asset Quality (%)

Gross NPAs 1.5 1.7 2.0 3.2 3.2 4.2 4.9

Net NPAs 0.6 0.9 1.0 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.5

Slippages 0.9 1.6 1.8 4.0 2.8 2.8 2.6

Loan Loss Prov./Avg. Assets

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6

Provision Coverage 58.2 76.7 76.8 61.5 63.0 62.5 65.0

Per Share Data (`)EPS 36.1 45.3 51.5 39.3 45.5 46.7 52.5

 ABVPS 250.4 292.2 350.0 350.4 382.4 408.5 451.5

DPS 7.3 9.1 10.4 7.9 9.2 8.5 10.0

Valuation Ratios

PER (x) 3.8 3.0 2.7 3.5 3.0 2.9 2.6

P/ABVPS (x) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

Dividend Yield 5.3 6.6 7.6 5.8 6.7 6.2 7.3

DuPont Analysis (%)

NII 2.0 2.3 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

(-) Prov. Exp. 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.8

 Adj. NII 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.7

Treasury  0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Int. Sens. Inc. 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.8

Other Inc. 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6

Op. Inc. 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4

Opex 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4

PBT 1.1 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0

Taxes 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3

RoA 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6

Leverage (x) 16.6 18.2 17.0 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.2

RoE 14.8 16.5 17.1 10.8 11.5 10.8 11.1

 

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