exide industries, 1q fy 2014

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  • 7/28/2019 Exide Industries, 1Q FY 2014

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    Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

    Y/E March (` cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 % chg (yoy) 4QFY13 % chg (qoq)Net Sales 1,627 1,554 4.7 1,541 5.6EBITDA 263 232 13.3 204 28.5

    EBITDA Margin (%) 16.1 14.9 122bp 13.3 287bp

    Adj. PAT 159 152 4.6 146 8.6Source: Company, Angel Research

    For 1QFY2014, Exide Industries (EXID) posted a better-than-expectedperformance, driven by sharp expansion in operating margins on the back of thecontinued traction in the automotive replacement segment and cumulative priceincreases of ~10% since 1HFY2013. Going ahead, the Management has

    indicated that the focus will be on improving profitability and has also stated thatit is willing to forgo some business in the unprofitable OEM segment. Recently, thecompany has raised prices again by ~5% across segments (excluding OEM) tomitigate the impact of INR depreciation, indicating pricing discipline and return ofpricing power. We broadly retain our revenue and earnings estimates for thecompany for FY2014/15. We expect EBITDA margins to improve ~180bp inFY2014 reflecting full benefits of the price hikes taken since 1HFY2013. As aresult, we expect earnings to register a strong CAGR of ~21% over FY2013-15E.We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock.Pricing discipline aids margin expansion: For 1QFY2014, the companys top-linegrew broadly in-line with our estimates and stood at `1,627cr (up 4.8% yoy and5.6% qoq). The growth was driven by ~7% and ~20% yoy growth in the four-

    wheeler and two-wheeler replacement battery segments, respectively, offsettingthe ~23% yoy decline in inverter battery segment and ~10% yoy decline in theOEM segment. Additionally, continued growth in the four-wheeler replacementsegment has turned the replacement: OEM mix (1.74:1 vs 1.48:1 qoq) favorablefor the company, resulting in a strong growth in net average realization. EBITDAmargins improved 122bp yoy (287bp qoq) to 16.1%, which is significantly aheadof our estimates of 13.6%. The margins improved on account of the superiorproduct mix and price increases taken across the segments. Led by a strongoperating performance, the net profit posted a better-than-expected growth of4.6% yoy (8.6% qoq) to `159cr.

    Outlook and valuation: At `134, the stock is trading at 14.8x FY2015E earnings.We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with an SOTP based target priceof `148. We value the core battery business of the company at 15x FY2015Eearnings at `135/ share and the companys 100% stake in ING Vysya LifeInsurance at `13/ share (at the deal value).

    Key financials (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 5,110 6,072 6,899 7,873% chg 12.4 18.8 13.6 14.1

    Net Profit 461 523 674 768% chg (27.1) 13.4 28.8 13.9

    EBITDA (%) 13.4 12.9 14.7 14.7

    EPS (`) 5.4 6.2 7.9 9.0P/E (x) 24.6 21.7 16.9 14.8

    P/BV (x) 3.7 3.3 2.9 2.5

    RoE (%) 15.9 16.1 18.3 18.0

    RoCE (%) 19.4 20.0 23.2 23.1

    EV/Sales (x) 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.1

    EV/EBITDA (x) 14.2 12.3 9.1 7.7

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    ACCUMULATECMP `134

    Target Price `148

    Investment Period 12 Months

    Stock Info

    Sector

    Bloomberg Code

    Shareholding Pattern (%)

    Promoters

    MF / Banks / Indian Fls

    FII / NRIs / OCBs

    Indian Public / Others

    Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

    Sensex 5.9 17.1 12.1

    Exide Industries 3.9 2.1 (1.2)

    18.1

    10.5

    46.0

    25.4

    Auto Ancillary

    Avg. Daily Volume

    Market Cap (`cr)

    Beta

    52 Week High / Low

    Net Debt (`cr) (256)

    Face Value (`)

    BSE Sensex

    1

    20,128

    EXID@IN

    11,356

    0.5

    166/115

    172,157

    Nifty

    Reuters Code

    6,038

    EXID.BO

    Yaresh Kothari022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844

    [email protected]

    Exide IndustriesPerformance Highlights

    1QFY2014 Result Update | Auto Ancillary

    July 18, 2013

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    Exide Industries | 1QFY2014 Result Update

    July 18, 2013 2

    Exhibit 1:Quarterly financial performance (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 % chg (yoy) 4QFY13 % chg (qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % chg (yoy)Net Sales 1,627 1,554 4.7 1,541 5.6 6,077 5,114 18.8Consumption of RM 1,045 1,011 3.4 1,030 1.5 4,024 3,429 17.4(% of Sales) 64.2 65.1 66.8 66.2 67.1

    Staff Costs 94 84 11.6 90 4.1 349 286 22.0

    (% of Sales) 5.8 5.4 5.8 5.7 5.6

    Purchases of TG 1 1 (23.4) 4 (72.3) 15 7 98.9

    (% of Sales) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1

    Other Expenses 225 225 (0.3) 213 5.4 899 704 27.8

    (% of Sales) 13.8 14.5 13.8 14.8 13.8

    Total Expenditure 1,365 1,322 3.3 1,337 2.1 5,287 4,426 19.5Operating Profit 263 232 13.3 204 28.5 790 687 14.9OPM (%) 16.1 14.9 13.3 13.0 13.4

    Interest 0 1 (73.5) 1 (53.8) 4 5 (21.3)

    Depreciation 30 28 8.8 29 4.4 113 101 12.7

    Other Income 6 16 (60.4) 30 (79.6) 70 64 10.5

    PBT (excl. Extr. Items) 238 219 9.1 205 16.2 742 645 15.1Extr. Income/(Expense) - - - - - - - -

    PBT (incl. Extr. Items) 238 219 9.1 205 16.2 742 645 15.1(% of Sales) 14.7 14.1 13.3 12.2 12.6

    Provision for Taxation 79 67 19.5 59 35.0 220 184 19.3

    (% of PBT) 33.3 30.4 28.7 29.6 28.5

    Reported PAT 159 152 4.6 146 8.6 523 461 13.4Adj PAT 159 152 4.6 146 8.6 523 461 13.4

    Adj. PATM 9.8 9.8 9.5 8.6 9.0

    Equity capital (cr) 85.0 85.0 0.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 0.0

    Reported EPS (`) 1.9 1.8 4.6 1.7 8.6 6.2 5.4 13.4Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:1QFY2014 Actual vs Angel estimatesY/E March (` cr) Actual Estimates Variation (%)Net Sales 1,627 1,618 0.6EBITDA 263 219 19.7

    EBITDA margin (%) 16.1 13.6 258bp

    Adj. PAT 159 145 10.0Source: Company, Angel Research

    Top-line growth broadly in line with estimates: For 1QFY2014, the top-line grewbroadly in-line with our estimates and stood at `1,627cr (up 4.8% yoy and 5.6%

    qoq). The growth was driven by ~7% and ~20% yoy growth in the four-wheeler

    and two-wheeler replacement battery segments respectively, offsetting the ~23%

    yoy decline in inverter battery segment and ~10% yoy decline in the OEM

    segment. Additionally, continued growth in the four-wheeler replacement segment

    has turned the replacement: OEM mix (1.74:1 vs 1.48:1 qoq) favorable for the

    company, resulting in a strong growth in net average realization. The

    replacement: OEM mix during the quarter stood at 1.74:1 for the four-wheeler

    segment and 0.49:1 in the two-wheeler segment.

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    Exide Industries | 1QFY2014 Result Update

    July 18, 2013 3

    The Management has indicated that the market share of the company in the

    replacement segment has reached comfortable levels (in excess of 50%). The OEM

    market share of the company in the four and two wheeler segments currently

    stands at ~66% and ~75% respectvely. The capacity utilization for EXID remainslow and is currently in the range of 72-75% in the automtive battery segment and

    ~73% in the industrial battery segement.

    Exhibit 3:Net sales in line with estimates

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Operating margin surprises positively: On the operating front, EBITDA marginsimproved 122bp yoy (287bp qoq) to 16.1%, which was significantly ahead of our

    estimates of 13.6%. Margins improved on account of the superior product mix and

    price increases taken across segments. While the net average realization grew by

    11% yoy in the industrial battery segment; four and two wheeler replacement

    battery segments witnessed a growth of ~6% and 18% yoy respectively. According

    to the Management, in addition to the price hikes in the replacement market, the

    company has succeeded in increasing the prices in the OEM segment by 5-7%.

    Additionally, the Management has stated that it is willing to forgo some business in

    the OEM segment if the orders do not meet the margin threshold.

    Exhibit 4:Average lead price trend

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 5:EBITDA margin recovers to 16.1%

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Net profit beats estimates: Led by a strong operating performance, net profitposted a better-than-expected growth of 4.6% yoy (8.6% qoq) to `159cr.

    1,2

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    (%)(`cr) Net sales (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)

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    Lead inventory ( RHS) Lead prices (LHS)

    17.8

    7.713.2 14.6 14.9 12.4 11.2 13.3

    16.1

    63.9

    71.267.4 67.3 65.2 66.4 67.3 67.2 64.3

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    (%)EBITDA margin Raw material cost/sales

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    Exide Industries | 1QFY2014 Result Update

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    Exhibit 6:Bottom-line beats estimates

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    163

    51

    104

    143

    152

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    146

    159

    13.1

    4.4

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    (%)(`cr) Net profit (LHS) Net profit margin (RHS)

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    Exide Industries | 1QFY2014 Result Update

    July 18, 2013 5

    Investment arguments

    Demand scenario for automotive and industrial batteries to remain positive inthe long run: We expect growth traction in the automotive battery segment tocontinue in the long term, driven by OEM sales and a steady increase of

    10-12% in the auto replacement segment, given that average battery life is

    3-4 years. Further, revival in demand for telecom and UPS batteries is also

    likely to sustain industrial battery demand going ahead. However, due to the

    prevailing slowdown in economic activity, higher interest rates and increase in

    fuel prices; consumer sentiments remain dampened, which could potentially

    lead to a sluggish growth in the 4W as well as 2W OEM battery segments in

    the near term.

    Captive sourcing reduces impact of lead price volatility: EXID acquired TandonMetals (FY2008) and Leadage Alloys (51% in FY2009 and the rest 49% in

    2QFY2011) to recycle lead and lessen the vulnerability of rising lead prices.This reduced the company's dependence on imported lead to ~25% in

    FY2013 from ~32% in FY2010. Total lead supplied by the captive smelter

    increased to 40-45% of total consumption in FY2013. EXID has benefitted

    from its captive sourcing strategy, as lead sourcing from captive smelters is

    10-12% cheaper compared to market rates. Going forward, EXID plans to

    increase sourcing from its smelters to ~70% by FY2014. Our sensitivity

    analysis suggests that for every 10% increase in sourcing from captive

    smelters, the companys EBITDA margin expands by ~50bp (assuming stable

    lead prices).

    Capacity expansion to increase volume growth: EXID has been operating at~90% utilization levels over the past five years. Hence, the company is in the

    process of increasing its battery capacity to cater to growing demand.

    With increased capacity, we believe EXID is well placed to meet the rising auto

    battery demand. We estimate the companys overall utilization level to remain

    at ~80% in FY2015. Further, we expect EXID to post a volume CAGR of ~10%

    and ~8% in the auto and industrial battery segments respectively, over

    FY2013-15E.

    Outlook and valuation

    Going ahead, the Management has indicated that the focus will be on improving

    profitability and has also stated that they are willing to forgo unprofitable business

    in the OEM segment. Recently, the company has raised the prices again by ~5%

    across the segments (excluding OEM) to mitigate the impact of INR depreciation,

    indicating pricing discipline and return of pricing power. We broadly retain our

    revenue and earnings estimates for the company for FY2014/15. We expect

    EBITDA margins to improve by ~180bp in FY2014 reflecting full benefits of the

    price hikes taken since 1HFY2013. As a result, we expect earnings to register a

    strong CAGR of ~21% over FY2013-15E.

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    Exide Industries | 1QFY2014 Result Update

    July 18, 2013 6

    Exhibit 7:Change in estimatesY/E March Earlier Estimates Revised Estimates % chg

    FY2014E FY2015E FY2014E FY2015E FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales (` cr) 7,044 8,052 6,899 7,873 (2.1) (2.2)OPM (%) 14.2 14.5 14.7 14.7 45bp 20bp

    EPS (`) 7.8 9.1 7.9 9.0 1.8 (0.5)Source: Company, Angel Research

    At `134, the stock is trading at 14.8x FY2015E earnings. We maintain ourAccumulate rating on the stock with a SOTP based target price of `148. We valuethe core battery business of the company at 15x FY2015E earnings at `135/ share

    and the companys 100% stake in ING Vysya Life Insurance at `13/ share (at the

    deal value).

    Exhibit 8:Key assumptionsFY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E

    Automotive battery volumes (mn units)Four-wheeler 7.5 8.2 7.8 8.1 8.4 9.5

    yoy change (%) 12.9 10.4 (4.6) 3.5 4.0 12.0

    Two-wheeler 8.7 10.8 13.9 16.5 18.1 20.3

    yoy change (%) 5.4 23.2 28.6 19.0 10.0 12.0

    Total Automotive volumes 16.2 19.0 21.7 24.6 26.6 29.8yoy change (%) 8.7 17.3 14.2 13.4 8.0 12.0

    Industrial battery vol. (mnAH) 1,565 1,760 1,830 1,995 2,075 2,324yoy change (%) 18.9 12.5 4.0 9.0 4.0 12.0

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 9:Angel vs consensus forecastAngel estimates Consensus Variation (%)FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Net sales (` cr) 6,899 7,873 6,855 7,840 0.6 0.4EPS (`) 7.9 9.0 7.8 9.1 1.2 (1.2)

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 10:One-year forward P/E band

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 11:One-year forward P/E chart

    Source: Company, Angel Research

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    (x) One-yr forward P/E Five-yr average P/ELong term average P/E

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    Exide Industries | 1QFY2014 Result Update

    July 18, 2013 7

    Exhibit 12:Auto Ancillary Recommendation summaryCompany Reco. CMP(`) Tgt. price(`) Upside(%)

    P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) FY13-15E EPSFY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E CAGR (%)

    Amara Raja Batteries Accumulate 252 285 13.1 13.6 12.4 8.9 7.3 26.6 23.8 8.4Automotive Axle^ Neutral 200 - - 11.6 7.4 4.6 3.5 9.5 14.0 (4.7)

    Bharat Forge* Neutral 220 - - 15.1 12.7 6.4 5.5 13.6 14.7 18.6

    Bosch India# Accumulate 8,608 9,213 7.0 23.0 19.6 14.7 12.1 18.0 17.9 22.9

    Exide Industries Accumulate 134 148 11.1 16.9 14.8 9.1 7.7 18.3 18.0 21.1FAG Bearings# Neutral 1,435 - - 16.2 13.1 9.6 7.4 15.5 16.5 6.9

    Motherson Sumi* Neutral 217 - - 17.4 14.7 7.8 6.8 27.5 25.8 23.0

    Subros Buy 22 27 24.8 4.5 3.2 3.5 3.0 10.0 12.7 42.2

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * Consolidated results; # December year end; ^ September year end

    Company backgroundExide Industries (EXID) is a leading automobile and industrial battery manufacturer

    in India. The company commands an ~70% and ~60% market share in the OEM

    and organized replacement battery segment respectively and a 40-45% share in

    the industrial battery segment. EXID has technological tie-ups with majors such as

    Shin Kobe and Furukawa Battery. The automotive and industrial battery segments

    accounted for ~65% and ~35% of the company's total revenue in FY2012,

    respectively.

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    Exide Industries | 1QFY2014 Result Update

    July 18, 2013 8

    Profit and loss statement (Standalone)

    Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ETotal operating income 3,794 4,547 5,110 6,072 6,899 7,873% chg 11.8 19.9 12.4 18.8 13.6 14.1Total expenditure 2,902 3,666 4,424 5,287 5,888 6,716Net raw material costs 2,158 2,823 3,436 4,039 4,519 5,157

    Other mfg costs 231 283 325 412 466 528

    Employee expenses 230 278 286 349 397 457

    Other 283 282 376 487 507 575

    EBITDA 892 881 686 786 1,011 1,157% chg 62.8 (1.2) (22.1) 14.5 28.6 14.5

    (% of total op. income) 23.5 19.4 13.4 12.9 14.7 14.7

    Depreciation & amortization 81 83 101 113 127 145

    EBIT 811 798 585 672 884 1,013% chg 69.0 (1.7) (26.6) 14.8 31.5 14.6

    (% of total op. income) 21.4 17.5 11.5 11.1 12.8 12.9

    Interest and other charges 14 9 8 6 3 3

    Other income 12 151 67 76 82 87

    (% of PBT) 1.5 16.7 10.4 10.2 8.5 7.9

    Recurring PBT 810 940 645 742 963 1,097% chg 86.2 16.0 (31.4) 15.1 29.7 13.9

    PBT (reported) 811 907 645 743 963 1,097Tax 273 274 184 220 289 329

    (% of PBT) 33.7 30.2 28.5 29.6 30.0 30.0

    PAT (reported) 537 666 461 523 674 768ADJ. PAT 537 633 461 523 674 768% chg 89.7 17.8 (27.1) 13.4 28.8 13.9

    (% of total op. income) 14.2 13.9 9.0 8.6 9.8 9.7

    Basic EPS (`) 6.3 7.8 5.4 6.2 7.9 9.0Adj. EPS (`) 6.3 7.4 5.4 6.2 7.9 9.0% chg 78.5 17.8 (27.1) 13.4 28.8 13.9

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    Exide Industries | 1QFY2014 Result Update

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    Balance sheet statement (Standalone)

    Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity share capital 85 85 85 85 85 85Reserves & surplus 2,135 2,657 2,972 3,339 3,866 4,488

    Shareholders Funds 2,220 2,742 3,057 3,424 3,951 4,573Total loans 90 - - - - -

    Deferred tax liability 59 68 83 98 98 98

    Other long term liabilities - 3 4 7 7 7

    Long term provisions - 46 16 21 21 21

    Total Liabilities 2,369 2,860 3,160 3,549 4,077 4,698APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross block 1,336 1,561 1,777 1,900 2,117 2,411

    Less: Acc. depreciation 660 725 810 906 1,033 1,177

    Net Block 677 836 967 994 1,084 1,233Capital work-in-progress 38 47 27 59 42 48

    Investments 1,335 1,378 1,555 1,640 1,937 2,232Long term loans and adv. - 31 62 52 52 52Other noncurrent assets - - 1 1 1 1Current assets 912 1,314 1,481 1,802 2,139 2,439

    Cash 3 15 58 75 231 262

    Loans & advances 48 63 51 48 69 79

    Other 861 1,236 1,372 1,679 1,839 2,099

    Current liabilities 593 747 931 999 1,178 1,307

    Net current assets 319 567 550 803 961 1,132Total Assets 2,369 2,860 3,160 3,549 4,077 4,698

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    Exide Industries | 1QFY2014 Result Update

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    Cash flow statement (Standalone)

    Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 810 940 645 742 963 1,097

    Depreciation 81 83 101 113 127 145Change in working capital (59) (238) 7 (237) (2) (141)

    Others (23) 37 9 37 - -

    Other income (12) (151) (67) (76) (82) (87)

    Direct taxes paid (273) (274) (184) (220) (289) (329)

    Cash Flow from Operations 524 398 510 360 717 685(Inc.)/Dec. in fixed assets (100) (234) (195) (156) (200) (300)

    (Inc.)/Dec. in investments (667) (43) (177) (86) (296) (295)

    Other income 12 151 67 76 82 87

    Cash Flow from Investing (755) (126) (304) (165) (415) (508)Issue of equity 530 - - - - -

    Inc./(Dec.) in loans (227) (90) - - - -

    Dividend paid (Incl. Tax) 56 95 140 145 146 146

    Others (159) (265) (281) (290) - -

    Cash Flow from Financing 200 (260) (140) (145) (146) (146)Inc./(Dec.) in cash (31) 12 43 17 156 31

    Opening Cash balances 34 3 15 58 75 231Closing Cash balances 3 15 58 75 231 262

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    Exide Industries | 1QFY2014 Result Update

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    Key ratios

    Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 21.1 17.0 24.6 21.7 16.9 14.8P/CEPS 18.4 15.9 20.2 17.8 14.2 12.4

    P/BV 5.2 4.2 3.7 3.3 2.9 2.5

    Dividend yield (%) 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1

    EV/Sales 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.1

    EV/EBITDA 11.3 11.3 14.2 12.3 9.1 7.7

    EV / Total Assets 4.3 3.5 3.1 2.7 2.3 1.9

    Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 6.3 7.8 5.4 6.2 7.9 9.0

    EPS (fully diluted) 6.3 7.4 5.4 6.2 7.9 9.0

    Cash EPS 7.3 8.4 6.6 7.5 9.4 10.7

    DPS 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5

    Book Value 25.8 31.9 35.7 40.0 46.2 53.5

    Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 21.4 17.5 11.5 11.1 12.8 12.9

    Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

    Asset turnover (x) 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9

    ROIC (Post-tax) 57.4 45.6 28.3 28.4 33.5 34.9

    Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 4.4 13.5 - - - -

    Leverage (x) - - - - - -

    Operating ROE 57.4 45.6 28.3 - - -

    Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 40.8 30.5 19.4 20.0 23.2 23.1

    Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 81.1 55.4 38.5 37.1 46.9 46.4

    ROE 31.0 25.5 15.9 16.1 18.3 18.0

    Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5

    Inventory / Sales (days) 50 59 65 64 66 65

    Receivables (days) 23 25 27 27 27 27

    Payables (days) 42 46 51 48 46 45

    WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 26 35 37 37 39 37

    Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity (0.6) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5)

    Net debt to EBITDA (1.4) (1.6) (2.3) (2.2) (2.1) (2.2)

    Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 60.1 91.8 78 117 295 338

  • 7/28/2019 Exide Industries, 1Q FY 2014

    12/12

    Exide Industries | 1QFY2014 Result Update

    July 18 2013 12

    Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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    Disclosure of Interest Statement Exide Industries

    1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

    2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

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    Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

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