GEOPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE CRIME INTELLIGENCE

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ORGANIZED CRIME FACTS• ZAMFARA STATE

Standing forlorn in the middle of the road withstrains of depression visibly outlined in herfaded once glamorous and enticing features,the formerly boisterous girl gazes blankly intothe sky, groping unsteadily for support into theair while uttering incoherent meaninglesswords, she gradually delved into the oblivion ofthe blazing horns of danger still lurking in herpath. She is too weak from her travails,aggravated with days of hunger as she watchesher surroundings blankly. She has lost claim onthe whole essence of living as roaming hasbecome her fate. She has just witnessed thegruesome massacre of her entire family, havingbeen spared by a hair breathe due to herabandonment for dead after going into relapsewhile being raped mercilessly by the tenth manat the tender age of five. She represents the lifeof majority of a typical female in Zamfara state.

We decided to leave our village after banditskilled 56 people in one day," says Fatima Y."About 30 people from our village had alreadybeen killed and our belongings were constantlybeing looted." Fatima is now staying in a campin Anka, in northwest Nigeria's Zamfara state,after her home village of Jar'kuka became toodangerous for habitation. Fatima is the virilefew who escape unhurt to tell the tale.

Abbas, also staying in the camp known as 'NewEmir's Palace' in Anka (Anka camp is the onlysite for IDPs in Zamfara), left his village ofTangaram with his wife and three childrenafter the abduction of his father. "Two yearsago, my father, who was the traditional leaderof our village, was abducted by bandits andtaken to the bush," he says. "The banditsdemanded a ransom, which was paid. Sincethen, we have not tried to return.

Two people went back to check on the situationthere, but one was killed, and the other wasabducted, although later he escaped."

Above are some of the litany of woes that trailthe memories of almost every female thatreside in Zamfara state, while few malessurvive the insanity of the torture meted out onthem to recount the gory details.

Attacks by different criminal elements take theform of burning homes and barns, rustlinglivestock and dispossession of other property,and acts of sexual violence. Cattle rustling,historically occurring on a low scale in manyparts of northern Nigeria, has become moreorganized and intensive in the Dansadau forestin Zamfara since 2013, with rustlersthreatening, stealing and killing many herdswith automatic rifles. The gang-raping ofabducted women and girls occur in thepresence of family members; in other cases,attackers threaten to kill fathers and husbandsif they do not bring their daughters and wivesto their forest camps to suffer the same ordeal.Kidnapping and other violent acts associatedwith gold mining activities transformed thestate into a fiefdom of deadly gangs, while BokoHaram offshoots forged tighter relationshipswith aggrieved communities, herder-affiliatedarmed groups and criminal gangs. The crisis inthis resource-rich but developmentally-starvedZamfara seems to render the governmentincapable of fighting crimes as insecuritytarries on over a decade in the state.

Even in their makeshift enclosures in schools,markets and bushes, the females have not beenspared further psychological, emotional andphysical trauma due to exposure to rape intheir unprotected shelters. In recent years,these acts of increased violence levels have lefta trail of incessant deaths, traumaticdisplacement and disability, destroyedlivelihoods, and witnessed an escalatedincrease of gender-based violence (GBV). Withover 8,000 people slaughtered since 2011 andan estimated 200,000 or more displaced intoneighbouring states and regions, the erstwhilepeaceful state of Zamfara has become beset byviolence between herders and farmers,resulting in an explosion into criminal activityand infiltration by jihadist groups.

Kidnapping, now surpassing cattle rustling, isnow an established criminal industry inZamfara, where criminal gangs inhabit the vastforests that fringe the state with little to nogovernment presence as clandestine pathscrisscross the 40,000 square perimeter state.

Recall that the Nigerian dailies had reported on26/01/2021 that between January 11 to 17,armed attacks in Zamfara and Kaduna stateshad affected 1,125 people (including 17fatalities), leading to new displacements. Over600 of those affected are women and 248children. Imagine extrapolating this figure at200 persons per day and a probable estimateof 120 persons from Zamfara alone for 365days of a year? The resultant effect will be anaverage of 43,800 per year displaced personfrom Zamfara and a probable fatality of10persons in every 1,000 displacedindividuals.

Criminal groups and extreme violence in thenorthwestern state of Zamfara have left severalthousands of people fleeing their villages toseek shelter in nearby towns. The deadlyattacks forced them to flee their villages, withnot an iota of personal belongings. All acrossZamfara, the insecurity has so affected livingwithin this state, such as earning one's livingand growing food, thereby preventing peoplefrom accessing essential healthcare services.What began as localized disputes betweenherders and farmers over land access havegradually become a major conflict.

Zamfara state, previously known for itscommendable peaceful coexistence withrelations, consolidated by social activities,mutual economic dependence andintermarriage, and has become overwhelmedwith insecurity in the last decade. The banditryviolence began as a farmer/herder conflict in2011 and intensified between 2017 and 2018to include cattle rustling, kidnapping forransom, sexual violence and killings. Thechanges in land ownership, environmentalfactors, grazing routes encroachment andclimate factors gradually degenerated into thecurrent situation being witnessed in the statepresently. The tension started when the leadersof the community and government officialsstarted selling grazing land to farmers. TheFulbe communities believed an injusticeoccurred and became aggrieved as they feltmarginalized by the government. In retaliation,the Fulbe orchestrated a reprisal attack againstthe perceived injustice.

Kaunda and Zamfara

Sum of AFFECTED PEOPLE 1125

Sum of DEATHS 17

1125

170

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Sum of AFFECTED PEOPLE

Sum of DEATHS

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Kaduna & Zamfara

Sum of affected people

Sum of children

Sum of women

Sum of men

Between January 11 to 17, armed attacks in Zamfara and Kaduna states had affected 1,125 people(including 17 fatalities), leading to new displacements. Over 600 of those affected are women and 248children. Imagine extrapolating this figure at 200 persons per day and a probable estimate of 120persons from Zamfara alone for 365 days of a year? The resultant effect will be an average of 43,800 peryear displaced person from Zamfara and a probable fatality of 10persons in every 1,000 displacedindividuals.

Consequently, the heightened criminalitywithin the state was ascribed to the Fulbecommunities due to their retaliatory attacks,leading to the Hausa communities to mobilizeinto local security groups known as yan Sakai(volunteers) or yan Banga (from late 2014onwards) to counter the attacks. Not beingthreatened, the Fulbe communities respondedby creating their fighting group code-namedyan bindiga (people with guns). Thisdisintegrated the erstwhile peaceful state into astate of anarchy where animosities got worse asdifferent groups who engage in violated actsaligned themselves with either of these groups.The situation deteriorated with the aggressiverecruitment strategy adopted by the Fulbecommunities, thereby threatening the peacefulHausa communities with their numbers bothfrom within and external.

The discovery of gold mines and the activitiesof illegal miners competing for the control ofgold reserves further intensified the existenceand activities of armed groups in the northwest.Consequently, the Nigerian governmentannounced a ban on mining activities in thenorthern Zamfara State. According tointelligence reports, the move is based on theglaring and robust nexus between armedbandits and illicit miners in line with thebroader state of insecurity

By March 2020, over 210,000 people weredisplaced, with more than 35,000 refugeescrossing communal borders to Maradi in theNiger Republic, according to InternationalCrisis Group.

Contributing to the already fragile situation,easy access to arms and ammunitions fromwar-torn countries worsened the state'sinsecurity. The resultant crisis came to a climaxwith the assumption by soldiers tilting towardsa belief that all Fulbe male youth were 'armedbandits,' thereby culminating in their regularharassment and even shootings at checkpoints.

Zamfara state government reports that over16,000 children became orphans due toviolence in the last decade, culminating in aspike in the number of out of school childrenand child street beggars.

An estimate of 141,360 cattle and 215,241sheep were rustled in Zamfara state between2011 and 2019, impoverishing farmers andherders alike, thereby resulting in foodshortages in some communities and aggravatedmalnutrition among children. Severalbusinesses are in a state of ruins, and othersshut due to direct attacks and kidnappings.

In addition to displacement, violence hashampered agricultural activities andheightened the risk of acute food insecurity.Livelihoods are affected, fear and insecurityamong the population have increased, and IDPsand host communities compete for scarceresources such as water, land and food.Protection concerns are heightened for women,children and the elderly, while security andfood are priority needs in affected areas. Thespread of violence within the state hasexacerbated the humanitarian crisis bydepressing its economy with its resultantactivities, leaving destabilizing effects in otherparts of Nigeria.

Legend

Capital

Major cities

Kano

Port Harcourt

Ibadan

Lagos

Abuja

Zamfara

Though the Nigerian government and statesecurity personnel have severally responded,most notably via military operations and apeace process initiated at the state level, thereare widespread allegations of complicity andcollusion of security agents, communityleaders and politicians in perpetuatinginsecurity. The situation not only has gravehumanitarian and human rights impacts onconflict-affected communities but the potentialfor security to deteriorate and violence tospread. The underpinning of security efforts toresult in success may stem from a lack ofcapacity and conflict sensitivity which risksinflaming tensions.

The Governor of Zamfara state, Matwalle,advocate an embrace of amnesty as the lastingsolution to banditry in the state, pointing that itwas "repentant" bandits that helped negotiatethe release of the Kankara schoolboys. Manyhave expressed their doubts as to the efficacyof such resolve. Matawalle had relaunched themismanaged amnesty programme promisingcows rather than cash for every AK-47returned. He has also ordered the vigilantes'disarming and pledged support to Fulanicommunities through a federal governmentinitiative to settle pastoralists on land reservesand then bring in development services. Many,however, have opposed this amnesty move.

The Hausa communities are skeptical that thegovernor may be rewarding men responsiblefor mass killings in granting amnesties. "They[the government] are underestimating thegravity and scale of the problem," said Rufa'i,the academic.

Arguing against the amnesty programme,Chitra Nagarajan, who investigated theviolence in Zamfara, proposes a proper DDRR(disarmament, demobilization, rehabilitationand reintegration) processes and to build socialcohesion and transitional justice that allowscommunities to reconcile and heal," she said.She further advocates that some quick wins thegovernor could implement to ease bothcommunities' grievances include restockingstolen herds and returning land to thedispossessed, which would help calmfrustrations and build confidence.

Eons Intelligence further proposes as a falloutof the above analysis that:

• There is a need to investigate theunderlying issues and broker peace byreconciling Hausa and Fulani's groups bydefusing contention.

• Enhance protection with and around thestate, improve border security and reformForestry and Mining Sectors.

• Restore the environment by mitigating theadverse effects of climate change.

Eons Intelligence eonsintelligenc Eons Intelligence Eons Intelligence

Eons Intelligence is a strategic intelligenceand advisory group which specializes inbespoke analysis of crime, political,economic risk and opportunities inNigeria.

Location: Lagos, NigeriaEmail: enquires@eonsintelligence.com

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