Oregon State University (lead) University of Washington

Northern Arizona University USFS Pacific Northwest Research Station

University of Arizona USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station

University of Idaho Utah State University

University of Montana Washington State University

Regional Approaches for Adaptation to and Mitigation of Climate Variability and Change

USDA Coordinated Agricultural Project

What is a Coordinated Agricultural Project?What is a Coordinated Agricultural Project?

Coordinated Agricultural Projects (CAPs) Multi-million dollar projects Multi-state, multi-institutional, and trans-disciplinary teams Integrate scientific discoveries and technology with practical

application

Integrates research, education, and extension Climate CAP teams conduct targeted research, education, and

extension activities in response to the goals of the Climate Change Program

Regional CAP for 2010Regional CAP for 2010

Regional approaches to Climate Change: CAP

Application deadline – January 13, 2012

$2,000,000 per year ($10 million total) for up to 5 years

Anticipates making 2 awards among diverse agricultural systems

Regional integrated CAP focusing on mitigation and adaptation, involving research, education, and outreach

We are focusing on Forest systems: western conifers

Requests for applicationsRequests for applications

Adaptation – adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climate change effects which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities

Adaptation – adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climate change effects which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities

Mitigation – human intervention to reduce anthropogenic forcing of the climate system, including strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance greenhouse gas sinks

Mitigation – human intervention to reduce anthropogenic forcing of the climate system, including strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance greenhouse gas sinks

Stakeholders are criticalStakeholders are critical

“Demonstrate the adoption of approaches and practices across the region…”

Stakeholders are seed orchard managers, nursery managers, silviculturists, managers of forest operations, wood products manufacturers, managers of carbon offsets programs, policy makers, teachers, and students

Organizations are forest industry, governmental agencies, tribes, small private landowners, NGOs, and universities

Included in project advisory groups

Long-term goalLong-term goal

Synthesize existing knowledge and develop new knowledge on the impacts of climate change on western

forest production systems, and then design, convey, and implement management strategies that maximize forest health, forest productivity, and greenhouse gas

mitigation under changing climates

Management planManagement plan

Planning process – 2010-11Planning process – 2010-11

Oregon sub-regional meeting

Idaho sub-regional meeting

Regional planning meeting in Portland Proposal presentations by group leaders Immediate on-line feedback from stakeholders and participants Information used to design complete project proposal Active involvement of participants

Arizona regional meeting National Workshop on Climate and Forests External review of complete project

Today’s objectivesToday’s objectives

Describe potential monitoring network Ground-based and remote monitoring networks

Describe potential modeling framework

Obtain feedback

Find stakeholders who want to be engaged

Today’s objectivesToday’s objectives

WC4 region Analyses requiring the inclusion of non-forested areas will be conducted across the entire WC4 region depicted. Forest-based analyses will occur across the WC4 forests (Maritime West Coast and Western Cordilleran Forests in green), and particularly intensive analyses will occur at specific locations along one or more WC4 transects. Forest ecozones are from Wiken (1986) and Omernik (1987).

Ground-based monitoring networkGround-based monitoring network

Long-term goal:

Provide a common plot network that facilitates linkages among concurrent efforts in silvicultural experimentation, monitoring at various spatial scales, modeling tree and stand responses, physiological experimentation and quantifying storage and flux of carbon, nitrogen and water

Ground-based monitoring networkGround-based monitoring network

Landowners hosting the permanent plots and supporting the silvicultural research to improve the economic and environmental performance of their forests.

The proposed WC4 research will:•Expand and enhance the original objectives behind establishment of the various permanent plot networks.•Ensure relevance of the research activity to managers of these forests •Help establish direct connections with respective landowners•Provide a sense of participation by the landowners

Stakeholders

Ground-based monitoring networkGround-based monitoring network

Approach• Establish criteria to ensure that plots considered for the WC4

network meet minimum criteria with respect to plot size, data quality, duration of past growth records and environmental monitoring, intended longevity, and climatic type (e.g., principal components ordination based on decadal ClimateWNA variables).

• Selected plots will receive standard instrumentation for monitoring soil moisture, soil temperature, below-canopy humidity, throughfall precipitation, air temperature, forest floor incident radiation, and any others deemed essential by the team

Ground-based monitoring networkGround-based monitoring network

• Selected plots will be measured consistently for tree growth, indices of tree physiological status, understory vegetation, carbon pools, soil and plant nutrient content, and others deemed essential by the team.

• A subset of these plots will be strategically selected for

supplementary physiological measurements, and successively smaller subsets will be selected for more detailed physiological work.

• The plot network will be linked to remote sensing monitoring and broad scale modeling of forest dynamics.

Approach (cont’d)

Potential WCCCC plot network

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IFTNC (ID/WA)

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SMC Type 5

Potential WCCCC plot network

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SMC Type 1

Potential WCCCC plot network

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Swiss needle cast, Coast Ranges

Swiss needle cast, Cascades

Potential WCCCC plot network

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Potential WCCCC plot networkEnvironmental monitoring in place

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Potential WCCCC plot network

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Moisture and temperature

sensors

Fly Creek

Ground-based monitoring networkGround-based monitoring network

Common measurement protocol on all plots selected for monitoring network

Enhanced measurements and instrumentation on strategic subset of plots

3-5 intensive study sites with manipulative silvicultural/physiological experiments

Remote sensing component

Modeling frameworkModeling framework

RFA text: Develop standardized methodologiesfor estimating carbon, nitrogen, and water

footprints of regional system

for evaluating the feedback linkages between changes in production system with human behavior and decision-making

Modeling objectivesModeling objectives

Standardized methodologies for projecting changes in climate and stores and fluxes of carbon, nitrogen, and water

Understand potential effects of climate change on western coniferous forests and stakeholders

Monitor forest change and stakeholder behavior change

Requirements of modeling systemRequirements of modeling system

Estimate current and projected fluxes of carbon, nitrogenm, and water

Modify climate and forest management

Use proposed ground-based and remote measurements as inputs

Yield robust predictions (comparison of alternative modeling approaches)

Integrate multiple models

Today’s objectivesToday’s objectives

Describe potential monitoring network Ground-based and remote monitoring networks

Describe potential modeling framework

Obtain feedback

Find stakeholders who want to be engaged