optimum big rain indicator of extremes for the southeast usa presented by: jim o’brien...
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Optimum Big Rain Indicator of Extremes for the Southeast USA
Presented by: Jim O’Brien
Collaborators: Preston Leftwich and David Zierden
COAPS, The Florida State University
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Hurricanes and Tornadoes are Categorical
Hurricanes
Saffir-Simpson Scale
Category Wind Speed
Cat 1 74-95 mph
Cat 2 96-110 mph
Cat 3 111-130 mph
Cat 4 131-155 mph
Cat 5 > 155 mph
Tornadoes
Enhanced Fujita Scale
Category Wind Speed
EF0 65-85 mph
EF1 86-110 mph
EF2 111-135 mph
EF3 136-165 mph
EF4 166-200 mph
EF5 > 200 mphBoth scales are based on damage potential.
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Gamma Distribution
Alpha > 1.0
Alpha < 1.0
Gamma Function
Generalized Gammapdf
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Rainfall Events Fitted to a Gamma Distribution
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Pensacola, FL
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Bartow, FL
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Potential Applied Users
• Water utility managers• Water management districts• Stormwater design and control• Engineering (retention pond design and maintenance)• Road and other construction• Agricultural specialists• Flooding potential outlooks
• Wildcard – human health
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Proposed Scale for Heavy Rainfall
Heavy Rainfall Event (2-day)
CategoryAmount Probability
R1 1-2 inches 80-88%
R2 2-2.5 inches 88-96%
R3 2.5-3 inches 96-99%
R4 > 3 inches > 99%
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Station Distribution Map
• Heavy rain events based on 2-day totals.
• NWS Cooperative Observers only report once daily, usually midnight-to-midnight.
• Rainfall does not automatically stop at midnight, 2-day totals better describe discrete events.
• In some cases, 3-day totals may be applicable
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Exceedance Probabilities by Month
Tarpon Springs, FLMarch
Category 2 Rainfall Event
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Exceedance Probabilities by Month
Tarpon Springs, FLApril
Category 2 Rainfall Event
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Exceedence Probabilities by ENSO Phase
Tarpon Springs, March
Tarpon Springs, July
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Probability of Two or More Events > Two Inches
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Seasonal Probability by 20-year periods
Orlando, FL Probability of at least one Cat 2 Rainfall Event
(2 inches or greater)
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Seasonal Probability by 20-year periods
High Springs, FL Probability of at least one Cat 2 Rainfall Event
(2 inches or greater)
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Southeastern Rainfall Extremes
•Dr. James J. O’Brien
•July 10, 2012
•AASC Annual Meeting in Sandestin
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Kissimmee Rainfall
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Kissimmee Rainfall
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The End
www.coaps.fsu.edu
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The End
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Two-Inch Two-day Events
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Black: Empirical Red: Exponential Green: Gamma (max liklihood)Blue: Gamma (Method of Moments) Purple: Gamma (Method of Moments via L-moments)
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