opticomm 2001nick mckeown1 do optics belong in internet core routers? keynote, opticomm 2001 denver,...

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1 Opticomm 2001 Nick McKeown Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Stanford University [email protected] http://www.stanford.edu/~nickm

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Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown3 1.“ Optics and routers don’t belong together” Optics are ill-suited to packet switching Buffering  Packet switches inherently require buffers for times of congestion,  Buffers provide statistical multiplexing for outgoing links,  Optical buffers are not economically feasible. Processing  Packet processing is too complex to be done optically.

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Page 1: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

1Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Hi gh Pe rf orm a nceSwi tc hi ng and Routi ngTe lec om Ce nter W orks ho p: Sep t 4 , 19 97.

Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers?

Keynote, Opticomm 2001Denver, Colorado

Nick McKeownProfessor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Stanford [email protected]://www.stanford.edu/~nickm

Page 2: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

2Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

There seem to be 3 opinions…

1. “Optics and routers don’t belong together” Optics are ill-suited to packet switching. CMOS technology and architectural techniques will scale

just fine.2. “Optical circuit switches will kill off (core) routers”

Optical circuit switches are simpler and faster than routers.

We don’t need packet switching anymore.3. “Optics and routers belong together”

Electronic switched “backplanes” will be replaced by optics.

Leads to lower power, higher density routers.

Page 3: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

3Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

1. “Optics and routers don’t belong together”

Optics are ill-suited to packet switching• Buffering

Packet switches inherently require buffers for times of congestion,

Buffers provide statistical multiplexing for outgoing links,

Optical buffers are not economically feasible.• Processing

Packet processing is too complex to be done optically.

Page 4: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

4Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Buffering

B

A

time

time

rate

rate

x

x

A x

B x

A

BC

2xC < 2x

A+B

time

rate

The Internet is built on the assumption ofexpensive, congested links.

Statistical multiplexing enables sharing of expensive links.

All routers have big buffers.

Rule of thumb: buffersize ~= RTT * line-rate.At 10Gb/s: 2.5Gbits.

Page 5: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

5Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Processing

PhysicalLayer

Framing&

Maintenance

PacketProcessing

Buffer Mgmt&

Scheduling

Buffer Mgmt&

Scheduling

Buffer & StateMemory

Buffer & StateMemory

Typical IP Router LinecardLookupTables

Backplane

Buffered orBufferless

Fabric

Arbitration

Optics

OC192c linecard: 30M gates 2.5Gbits of memory 2 square feet of board 200W $20k cost

Page 6: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

6Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

1. “Optics and routers don’t belong together”

CMOS and router architectures will scale just fine

Growth in capacity of electronic routers: Capacity 1992 ~ 2Gb/s Capacity 1995 ~ 10Gb/s Capacity 1998 ~ 40Gb/s Capacity 2001 ~ 160Gb/s Capacity 2003 ~ 1-40Tb/s

Main techniques for increasing capacity in electronic routers: Separating linecards from switch cores. Parallelism and load-balancing.

Page 7: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

7Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Current “3rd generation” Routers

Switched Backplane

Line Interface

CPUMemory

LineCard

MAC

LocalBuffer

Memory

CPUCard

LineCard

MAC

LocalBuffer

MemoryFwdingTable

RoutingTable

FwdingTable

Typically <=160Gb/s aggregate capacity

Page 8: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

8Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Arbiter

3rd Generation RoutersQueueing Structure

Switch

1 write per “cell” time 1 read per “cell” timeRate of writes/reads determined by switch

fabric speedup

Per-flow/class or per-output queues (VOQs)

Per-flow/class or per-input queues

Flow-controlbackpressure

Page 9: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

9Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

3rd Generation Routers

19” or 23”

7’

Size-constrained: 19” or 23” wide.

Power-constrained: 5kW for 640Gb/s is typical.

Page 10: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

10Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Separating linecards from switch cores

4th Generation Routers/Switches

Switch Core Linecards

1000’sof feet

The LCS Protocol

0.3 - 10Tb/s routers in development

Optical links

Page 11: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

11Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

1. “Optics and routers don’t belong together”

CMOS and router architectures will scale just fine

Growth in capacity of electronic routers: Capacity 1992 ~= 2Gb/s Capacity 1995 ~= 10Gb/s Capacity 1998 ~= 40Gb/s Capacity 2001 ~= 160Gb/s Capacity 2003 ~1-40Tb/s

Main techniques for increasing capacity in electronic routers: Separating linecards from switch cores. Parallelism and load-balancing.

Page 12: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

12Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Parallelism and Load-Balancing

Techniques in development for linecards at 10’s of Gb/s, but not discussed here: Parallel packet buffers. Parallel lookup tables.

Discussed here: Load-balancing across multiple parallel

routers.

Page 13: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

13Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Multiple parallel routers

Big Router:R

R R

R

The building blocks:

R

RR

R

NxN

IP Router capacity 100s of Tb/s

Page 14: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

14Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Multiple parallel routers Load Balancing architectures

R R

R

12……k

R

RR

R/k R/k

R

RR

Page 15: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

15Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Method #1: Random packet load-balancing

Method: As packets arrive they are randomly distributed, packet by packet over each router.

Advantages: Almost unlimited capacity Load-balancer is simple Load-balancer needs no packet buffering

Disadvantages: Random fluctuations in traffic each router is loaded

differently • Packets within a flow may become mis-sequenced• It is not possible to predict the system performance

Page 16: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

16Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Method #2: Random flow load-balancing

Method: Each new flow (e.g. TCP connection) is randomly assigned to a router. All packets in a

flow follow the same path.Advantages:

Almost unlimited capacity Load-balancer is simple (e.g. hashing of flow ID). Load-balancer needs no packet buffering. No mis-sequencing of packets within a flow.

Disadvantages: Random fluctuations in traffic each router is loaded

differently • It is not possible to predict the system performance

Page 17: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

17Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Observations

• Random load-balancing: It’s hard to predict system performance.

• Flow-by-flow load-balancing: Worst-case performance is very poor.

If designers, system builders, network operators etc. need to know the worst

case performance, random load-balancing will not suffice.

(Conversely: If they don’t, then it will).

Page 18: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

18Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Method #3: Intelligent packet load-balancing

Goal: Each new packet is carefully assigned to a router so that:

• Packets are not mis-sequenced.• The throughput is maximized and

understood.• Delay of each packet can be controlled.

We call this “Parallel Packet Switching”

Page 19: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

19Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Method #3: Intelligent packet load-balancing

Parallel Packet Switching

1

2

k

1

N

rate, R

rate, R

rate, R

rate, R

1

N

Router

Bufferless

R/k R/k

Page 20: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

20Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Parallel Packet Switching

• AdvantagesSingle-stage of bufferingNo excess link capacitykpower per subsystem kmemory bandwidth klookup rate

Page 21: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

21Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Example of an IP Router with Parallel Packet Switching

1

2

16

1

1024

160Gb/s

160Gb/s

rate, R

rate, R

1

1024

10Tb/s routerR/k R/k

Overall capacity 160Tb/s

Page 22: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

22Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

1.“Optics and routers don’t belong together”

Summary

• If optics cannot buffer or process packets, and

• If electronic CMOS-based routers can be built that are fast enough, then

• Why would anyone try and build an optical router?

Page 23: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

23Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

There seem to be 3 opinions…

1. “Optics and routers don’t belong together” Optics are ill-suited to packet switching. CMOS technology and architectural techniques will scale

just fine.2. “Optical circuit switches will kill off (core) routers”

Optical circuit switches are simpler and faster than routers.

We don’t need packet switching anymore.3. “Optics and routers belong together”

Electronic switched “backplanes” will be replaced by optics.

Leads to lower power, higher density routers.

Page 24: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

24Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

2. “Optical circuit switches will kill off (core) routers”

Optical circuit switches are simpler and faster than routers.

• A survey of available equipment suggests that, with electronics, you can build a circuit switch that has about 10x the capacity of a packet switch.

• This is because a packet switch requires lots of complex per-packet processing, …

• While a circuit switch requires no per-packet processing.

Page 25: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

25Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Processing steps

IP Router Per packet:

IP lookup. Update header & CRC. Forward to correct

output. Schedule departure.

Per route: Maintain routing entry.

Circuit SwitchContinuously:

Transfer bits, bytes, photons from input to output.

Per circuit: Establish circuit Remove circuit

Page 26: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

26Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

0,1

1

10

100

1000

10000

1985 1990 1995 2000

Spec

95In

t CPU

resu

lts

Why it’s hard for capacity to keep up with link rates

0,1

1

10

100

1000

10000

1985 1990 1995 2000

Fibe

r Cap

acity

(Gbi

t/s)

TDM DWDM

Packet processing Power Link Speed

2x / 2 years 2x / 7 months

Source: SPEC95Int & David Miller, Stanford.

Page 27: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

27Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Instructions per packet

time

Instructionsper packet

What we’d like: (more per-packet processing features)More efficient use of links, differentiated services, Multicast, Security, …

What will happen

Page 28: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

28Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Normalized number of instructions per packet

Page 29: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

29Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

2. “Optical circuit switches will kill off (core) routers”

We don’t need packet switching anymore.

• Original reasons for packet switching no longer hold.

• There are new techniques, such MPLambaS, burst switching, and TCP Switching that all make it possible to use circuit switching in the core.

• Actually, most of the core is circuit switched already!

Page 30: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

30Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Original reasons for packet switching

1. Efficient use of expensive links:“Circuit switching is rarely used for data

networks, ... because of very inefficient use of the links” – Gallager.

2. Resilience to failure of links & routers:”For high reliability, ... [the Internet] was to be a

datagram subnet, so if some lines and [routers] were destroyed, messages could be ... rerouted” – Tanenbaum.

Source: Networking 101

Page 31: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

31Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Neither reason is true today

1. Link capacity is abundant and under used Most links are unused due to lack of switching

capacity. Most links are utilized < 10%. Utilization continues to decrease.

2. Routers rarely fail They are designed for <5s down-time per year. They take >1min to recover when they do

(circuit switches must recover in <50ms).

Page 32: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

32Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

How networking people think the Internet is

Router

Page 33: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

33Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

How the Internet really is

Circuit Switched(SONET)

Packet Switched(IP routers)

$35Bn$6Bn

Page 34: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

34Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

How the Internet really is

SONET/SDH

IP routers IP routersYourLocalCO

YourLocalCO

Page 35: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

35Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

2. “Optical circuit switches will kill off (core) routers”

Summary• If the original rationale for packet

switching no longer holds, and• If circuit switching is inherently faster,

and cheaper than packet switching, and• If circuit switching is already working fine

for most of the Internet already, then• Packet switching doesn’t appear to have

a long-term future.

Page 36: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

36Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

There seem to be 3 opinions…

1. “Optics and routers don’t belong together” Optics are ill-suited to packet switching. CMOS technology and architectural techniques will scale

just fine.2. “Optical circuit switches will kill off (core) routers”

Optical circuit switches are simpler and faster than routers.

We don’t need packet switching anymore.3. “Optics and routers belong together”

Electronic switched “backplanes” will be replaced by optics.

Leads to lower power, higher density routers.

Page 37: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

37Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

3. “Optics and routers belong together”

Electronic switched “backplanes” will be replaced by optics.

• The first step is already happening: physical separation of linecards and switch cores.

• Optical switching is feasible.• Scheduling/arbitration is hard.

Page 38: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

38Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Separating linecards from switch cores

4th Generation Routers/Switches

Switch Core Linecards

Optical links

Page 39: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

39Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Replacing the switch fabric with optics

SwitchFabric

Scheduler

PhysicalLayer

Framing&

Maintenance

PacketProcessing

Buffer Mgmt&

Scheduling

Buffer Mgmt&

Scheduling

Buffer & StateMemory

Buffer & StateMemory

Typical IP Router LinecardLookupTables

OpticsPhysical

LayerFraming

& Maintenance

PacketProcessing

Buffer Mgmt&

Scheduling

Buffer Mgmt&

Scheduling

Buffer & StateMemory

Buffer & StateMemory

Typical IP Router LinecardLookupTables

Optics

Electrical

SwitchFabric

Scheduler

PhysicalLayer

Framing&

Maintenance

PacketProcessing

Buffer Mgmt&

Scheduling

Buffer Mgmt&

Scheduling

Buffer & StateMemory

Buffer & StateMemory

LookupTables

OpticsPhysical

LayerFraming

& Maintenance

PacketProcessing

Buffer Mgmt&

Scheduling

Buffer Mgmt&

Scheduling

Buffer & StateMemory

Buffer & StateMemory

LookupTables

Optics

Optical

Req/Grant Req/Grant

Candidate technologies: MEMs, gratings, passive optical couplers + tunable lasers,

holography,…

Req/Grant Req/Grant

But this is the difficult part…

Page 40: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

40Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Architecture of most routers today

Scheduler

Per-output queues (VOQs)

1. Scheduler picks new configuration each “cell” time (<50ns for OC192).

2. Scheduling decisions are complex: “Ideal” algorithm:

O(N3) [maximum weight bipartite matching] “Good” algorithm:

O(N2) [maximal size bipartite matching] Requires speedup which reduces cell time.

3. Scheduler chip is typically several million gates, 4. It is hard to use a distributed algorithm.

The scheduler is often the bottleneck in the system.

Page 41: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

41Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Overcoming the scheduler bottleneck

1. Increase the internal “cell” size to reduce rate of arbitration and reconfiguration.

Today: 64B is common. Expect 100s or 1000s of bytes per cell [Kar]. Throughput is not affected. When does it become circuit switching?

2. Eliminate the need for a scheduler Two-stage switch [Chang].

Page 42: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

42Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Two-Stage SwitchBackground

1

N

1

N

OutputsInputs

Simple Round-Robin

It is known that if traffic is uniform and non-bursty,Then a single stage, with virtual output queues,and trivial round-robin (“TDM”) scheduling, gives 100% throughput.

Of course, real traffic is non-uniform and

bursty.

Page 43: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

43Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

Two-Stage Switch

1

N

1

N

1

N

External Outputs

Internal Inputs

External Inputs

First Round-Robin Second Round-Robin

Load Balancing

Switch gives 100% throughput for non-uniform, burstytraffic, without a scheduler or speedup!

Page 44: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

44Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

An optical two-stage switch

1

2

3

Phase 2

Phase 1

Page 45: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

45Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

3. “Optics and routers belong together”Summary

• Optical switches can replace electronic crossbar switches now,

• Arbitration requires: Faster (compromised?) schedulers, orA 2-stage switch fabric.

Page 46: Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown1 Do Optics Belong in Internet Core Routers? Keynote, Opticomm 2001 Denver, Colorado Nick McKeown Professor of Electrical Engineering

46Opticomm 2001Nick McKeown

So which will it be…?1. “Optics and routers don’t belong together”

Optics are ill-suited to packet switching. CMOS technology and architectural techniques will scale

just fine.2. “Optical circuit switches will kill off (core) routers”

Optical circuit switches are simpler and faster than routers.

We don’t need packet switching anymore.3. “Optics and routers belong together”

Electronic switched “backplanes” will be replaced by optics.

Leads to lower power, higher density routers.

A bit of both for a few years: Continued scaling of electronic routers. Novel routers incorporating optics.

A prediction: By 2010, almost all of the Internet core will be optical and circuit switched.