opinions on democracy and accountability ahead of the 2015 elections
TRANSCRIPT
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Opinions on democracy and
accountability ahead of the 2015
elections
Findings from the Round 6 Afrobarometer survey in Nigeria
Lagos, 23rd March 2015
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What is Afrobarometer?
• An African-led, non-partisan survey research project that
measures citizen attitudes on democracy and governance, the economy, civil society, and other topics.
• Started in 12 countries in 1999, expanded to more than 30 African
countries in Round 5 (2011-2013).
• Goal: To give the public a voice in policy making by providing high-quality public opinion data to policymakers, policy
advocates, civil society organisations, academics, news media,
donors and investors, and ordinary Africans.
• National partners in each country conduct the survey. In Nigeria,
the Afrobarometer Round 6 survey was conducted by Practical
Sampling International (PSI) in collaboration with the CLEEN Foundation.
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Where Afrobarometer works
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Methodology
• Nationally representative sample of adult citizens
o All respondents are randomly selected.
o Sample is distributed across regions and urban-rural areas in proportion to their share in the national population.
o Sample covered 33 of Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
o It was not possible to conduct interviews in Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe due to unrest in the region, so substitutions of sampling units were made from neighbouring states in the same zone.
o Each zone is represented in the sample in proportion to its share of the national population.
o Every adult citizen has an equal chance of being selected.
• Face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice.
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Methodology (cont.)
• Standard questionnaire allows comparisons across countries and over time.
• Sample size of 2,400 yields a margin of error of ±2% at a 95% confidence level.
• Fieldwork for Round 6 in Nigeria was conducted between 5 and 27 December 2014. (For 80 cases, supplementary interviews were conducted on 18 and 19 January 2015.)
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Key findings
• Two-thirds (65%) of Nigerians favour democracy as the best form of
government, but one in five (21%) say non-democratic forms can
sometimes be preferable. This support for democracy is a decline from
69% in 2012.
• While a majority reject non-democratic alternatives, 15% approve of
military rule, 11% support one-party rule, and 9% approve of one-man rule.
• Nigerians show relatively weak support for checks and balances as a
means of ensuring that public officials perform their functions
appropriately, and most respondents do not see voters and their ballots
as playing leading roles in ensuring accountability.
• Ahead of the elections, key political office holders receive low approval
ratings on their performance, and public perceptions are characterized
by low levels of trust and high levels of perceived corruption.
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Support for democracy
Preferred form of government| 2012 - 2014
Respondents were asked: Which of these three statements is closest to your own opinion? Statement 1: Democracy
is preferable to any other kind of government. Statement 2: In some circumstances, a non-democratic
government can be preferable. Statement 3: For someone like me, it doesn’t matter what kind of government we
have.
11
19
69
1
11
21
65
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Doesn't matter Sometimes non-
democratic
preferable
Democracy
preferable
Don't know
2012 2014
Support for alternative forms of government | 2014
Respondents were asked: There are many ways to govern a country. Would you disapprove or approve of the
following alternatives: (%) A: Only one political party is allowed to stand for election and hold office? B: The
army comes in to govern the country? C: Elections and the National Assembly are abolished so that the
president can decide everything?
80
70
78
7 12 11 11
15 9
2 2 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
One-party rule Military rule One-man rule
Disapprove Undecided Approve Don't know
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The quality of democracy in Nigeria
Extent of democracy in Nigeria | 2012-2014
Respondents were asked: In your opinion, how much of a democracy is Nigeria today? (%)
.
16
47
25
9
4
10
47
35
7
1 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Not a
democracy
A democracy,
with major
problems
A democracy,
but with minor
problems
A full
democracy
Don't
know/Don't
understand
2012 2014
Satisfaction with democracy | by region | 2014
Respondents were asked: Overall, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in Nigeria? (%)
1
20
2 1 3 1
75 75 69
59 64
75
68
23
6
26
40 35
21
29
2 3 1 1 1 10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
North
Central
North East North West South East South
South
South West Total
Not a democracy Not at all/Not very satisfied
Very/Fairly satisfied Do not know
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The practice of democracy:
Checks and accountability
Who should make laws? | 2014
Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view? Choose
Statement 1 or Statement 2. (%) Statement 1: Members of the National Assembly represent the
people; therefore they should make laws for this country, even if the president does not agree.
Statement 2: Since the president represents all of us, he should pass laws without worrying about
what the National Assembly thinks.
68
25
8
Nat. Assembly makes laws
regardless of president's
wishes
President makes laws
regardless of Nat. Assembly
Don’t Know/Agree with
neither
Support for legislative oversight | 2012-2014
Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view? Choose Statement 1 or
Statement 2. (%) Statement 1: The National Assembly should ensure that the President explains to it on a
regular basis how his government spends taxpayers’ money. Statement 2: The President should be able to
devote his full attention to developing the country rather than wasting time justifying his actions
58
40
2
President should be
monitored by Parliament
President free to act on
his own
Don't know
President not bound by court decisions| 2014
Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view? Choose Statement 1 or
Statement 2. (%)
Statement 1: Since the president was elected to lead the country, he should not be bound by laws or court
decisions that he thinks are wrong.
Statement 2: The president must always obey the laws and the courts, even if he thinks they are wrong.
36
60
5
President not to be
bound by court
decisions
President must obey
the law and courts
Don't know/Agree with
neither
Who holds elected officials accountable | 2014
Respondents were asked: Who should be responsible for: (%)
A. Making sure that, once elected, Members of the National Assembly do their jobs? B. Making sure that, once elected, local government councilors do their jobs? C. Making sure that, once elected, the president does his job?
D. Making sure that once elected, State Governors do their jobs E. Making sure that once elected, State Assembly members do their job
17
37
30 28 23
39
20 26 25
33
18 17 20 19 19 18 18 18
21 18
2 2 2 2 2 6 5 5 6 5
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
President Nat. Assembly
members
Governors State Assembly
members
Local
government
councilors
President/executive Parliament/local council
Their political party Voters
No one Don't know
Election efficacy for removing officials who don’t perform | 2014
28
40
19
10
4
Not at all well
Not very well
Well
Very well
Don't know
Respondents were asked: How well do elections enable voters to remove from office leaders who do not do what the people want? (%)
Role of opposition parties after elections | 2012-2014
Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view? Choose Statement 1
or Statement 2. Statement 1: After losing an election, opposition parties should monitor and criticize the
government in order to hold it accountable. Statement 2: Once an election is over, opposition parties
and politicians should accept defeat and cooperate with government to help it develop the country.
2
30
68
1
40
59
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Don't know/Agree with neither
Hold govt accountable
Accept defeat and cooperate
with government
2012
2014
Role of opposition parties after elections | by region| 2014
32
45
25 23 28
33
65
55
72 76
71 66
3 0 2 0 2 2 1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
North
Central
North
East
North
West
South
East
South
South
South
West
Hold government
accountable
Accept defeat and
cooperate with
government
Agree with neither/Don't
know
Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view? Choose Statement 1 or
Statement 2. (%) Statement 1: After losing an election, opposition parties should monitor and criticize the
government in order to hold it accountable. Statement 2: Once an election is over, opposition parties and politicians should accept defeat and cooperate with government to help it develop the country.
Views on term limits| 2012-2014
Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view? Choose Statement 1 or Statement 2. (%) Statement 1: The Constitution should limit the president to serving a maximum of two terms in office. Statement 2: There should be no constitutional limit on how long the president can serve.
77
21
2
75
22
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
President limited to two
terms in office
No term limits Agree with neither/Don't
know
2012 2014
Views on term limits | by region| 2014
Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view? Choose Statement 1 or Statement 2. (%) Statement 1: The Constitution should limit the president to
serving a maximum of two terms in office. Statement 2: There should be no constitutional limit on how long the president can serve.
75
92
64 71
82 77
21
7
31 28
17 22
5 1
5 1 1 1 1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
North
Central
North East North West South East South South South West
President limited to two terms in office
No term limits
Don't know/Agree with neither
Check on government by the media | 2012-2014
Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view? Choose Statement 1 or
Statement 2. Statement 1: The news media should constantly investigate and report on government mistakes
and corruption. Statement 2: Too much reporting on negative events, like government mistakes and
corruption, only harms the country (%)
66
34
0
72
25
2 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
The media should
investigate government
Too much critical
reporting harms the
country
Don't know/Agree with
neither
2012 2014
Perceptions of corruption| 2014
Respondents were asked: How many of the following people do you think are involved in corruption, or haven’t you heard enough about them to say? (%)
4 3 3 3 3 3
10
15
5
39 33
39 37 36 38
52 53
46
55
62
56 58 59 57
36
28
45
3 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
President
and officials
Members of
Parliament
Governors
and officials
State
Assembly
members
Local
Government
councillors
Local
Government
chair and
officials
Traditional
rulers
Religious
leaders
Business
executives
None Some of them All/Most of them Don't know
Trust in political, traditional, and religious leaders | 2014
Respondents were asked: How much do you trust each of the following, or haven’t you heard enough about them to say? (%)
36 35
24
29
18
12
37
32 29
39
33
27
22 20
30
24
32 31
4
12
16
6
16
29
1 1 1 1 1 1 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
National
Assembly
President State
Governors
Elected LG
Council
Traditional
Rulers
Religious
Leaders
Not at all Just a little Somewhat A lot Don't know
Performance ratings of leaders | 2014
Respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the following people have performed their jobs over the past 12 months, or haven’t you heard enough about them to say? (%)
39
30 35
58 53
59
66 63
40 46
1 3 2 2 1 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
President National
Assembly
member
Local Govt.
councillor
Traditional
rulers
Governor
Approve/Strongly Approve Disapprove/Strongly Disapprove
Don't know/Haven't heard enough
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Conclusion
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• As Nigerians head toward their fifth general elections since 1999,
strong majority support for democracy co-habits with a high level
of tolerance for values and practices at variance with
democracy.
• Nigerians do not consider their role as voters to be crucial in
ensuring accountability among public officials.
• While institutional checks and balances are crucial in every
democracy, Nigerians may need to consider the value of the
ballot as a viable guarantor of accountability.
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