operational modeling the way to go mohid consortium
TRANSCRIPT
Operational Modeling The way to go
MOHID consortium
Present situation
• Daily forecasts :– 3D hydrodynamics;– 2D biogeochemical processes;
• Boundary conditions:– Open :
• barotropic fluxes forced by tide and wind;• Null gradient for temperature and salinity for the 3D solution;• Climatologic values for the 2D solution;
– Surface : wind forecasts of MM5 (9 km resolution) for a point SW of Cascais;
– Land : • Flow measure in Santarém with a phase error of 1 day;• Climatological biogeochemical values;
Operational Team
• Day to Day:– Rodrigo Fernandes (Model and field data
management);– Susana Nunes (Model operation and validation);
• Development – Ângela Canas (validation and data assimilation);– Guillaum Riflet (downscalling and coastal model
implementation);
2 years of life
• Successes:– The numerical model is highly stable;
– The hydrodynamic variability is well reproduced for the time scales of the order of tide or bigger;
– The web interface is also very stable and easy to work with;
– Validations of the biogeochemical forecasts with classical samples and sensors show the ability of the model to reproduce the main trends;
2 years of life
• Improvements going on or to do in the near future:
– Web page in English;– Interface able to make the runs and graphics automatically;– Definition of the validation methodology;– Validation quarterly reports;– Implement the MohidV4 version;– Run the biogeochemical model in 3D;– Coastal results (SST, Salinity, velocities);– In the remote sensing link put SST results (SST image +
correspondent model result + the daily animation);
And next ?
• 3D Coastal model with open boundaries defined with large scale solutions (climatologic, Mercator, Hycom);
• Variable in space atmosphere forcing;
• First experiences to predict the flow and biogeochemical parameters concentrations associated with rivers;
• Operational model :– Should be a common effort;
• Every body should give at least 10% of is time : validating, developing, divulgating or doing proposals
– Should be a tool to improve our knowledge and our efficiency
What is my vision
What is my vision
Barriers to overcome:
Large scale validation:
Remote sensing and historical data - Guillaume
ESEOO – Silvia
Geology data - Carla
Solution coherence in long time scales (Ricardo)
Primary production (Ricardo , ???)
Connection to emergence response systems (Rodrigo and Sibila)
Maestro : Henrique and José
What is my vision
Sea Surface Temperature : 11/2003:2/2004
Barriers to overcome:
Validation and Data assimilation : Ângela, Madalena, Susana, Pedro F. and Sofia
Data management : Rodrigo and Susana
Field Data sensors : Diogo
Complex biogeochemical processes (ex: HAB’s) : Marcos, Susana, Luís and Sofia
Maestros : Pina and Paulo
What is my vision
Barriers to overcome:
Data assimilation : Ângela
Data management : Rodrigo
Field Data sensors : Diogo
Nutrient loads : Pedro C., Filipa
Aquifers response : Pedro G.
Biogeochemical processes in the soil, rivers and reservoirs : Sandra, Pedro C. and Pedro G.
Maestros : Frank and Adélio
What is my vision
Barriers to overcome:
Data assimilation : Ângela
Data management : Rodrigo
Field Data sensors : Diogo
Air-sea interaction : Rosa
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) : ????
Link with meteogalicia : Rosa
Maestros : Rosa
What is yours ?
Macro Goals
• Unified Data base structure for all field data and model results (June 2005);
• 3D model couple to Mercator (January 2005);
• Tagus and Douro catchments flow and nutrient forecasts (June 2006).
• Volunteers to help me to do a more detail table ?