on the brink - awaaze kashmirawaazekashmir.in/live/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/31_1990362411...on the...

reportOn the brink?A Report on Climate Change and its

Impact in Kashmir

Authored byArjimand Hussain Talib

About the author

Arjimand heads ActionAid’s Kashmir office and is a regular columnist having over 400 published articlesregionally and internationally on issues of political economy, development and environment of Kashmir. He istrained as an engineer, with specialisation in water resource management. He has previously workedwith UNESCO (South Korea) on its Culture of Peace Curriculum Project and has contributed three chaptersto Asia-Pacific Teachers’ Training Manual, including one on Large Dams. He has been a 2004 grantee of theProVention Consortium and Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre for developing a conceptual framework intrans-boundary natural disaster management system in both parts of divided Kashmir. He has done extensivework on water-related issues and has been recipient of Water Fellowships from Salzburg Global Seminar,Austria and the Centre for Science and Environment, New Delhi.

On the brink?A Report on Climate Change and its

Impact in Kashmir

Authored byArjimand Hussain Talib

©

On the brink?On the brink?On the brink?On the brink?On the brink?A Report on Climate Change and its Impactin Kashmir

Edition: First, 2007

Srinagar OfficeNew Airport Road, Opp. ITIPirbagh, Srinagar, KashmirPhone: +91-194-2431996Mobile: 99066 79346

e-mail: [email protected]

Designed & Published by

139 Richmond RoadBangalore–560 025Karnataka, IndiaPh: +91-80-25580346Mobile: 0 94483 71732e-mail: [email protected]

Bf C Production Team:Shoba Ramachandran, Rajeevan, Gokul and Shailaja

Editorial Assistance: Alice Wynne Willson

Copyleft : This publication may be used in any form.Please feel free to quote, translate,distribute and transmit.Kindly acknowledge the source

Acknowledgements

Executive Summary

INTRODUCTION 1

TEMPERATURE RISE 4

NEW TRENDS IN RAIN AND SNOWFALL 6

IMPACTS ON GLACIERS AND FUTURE SCENARIOS 9

DEPLETING WATER SOURCES AND FUTURE SCENARIOS 13

IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE AND HORTICULTURE 17

CRISIS IN SAFFRON BELT: PAMPORE-KHREW CASE STUDY 23

RECOMMENDATIONS 25

ENDNOTES 28

CO

NTE

NTS

A Report on Climate Change and its Impact in Kashmir

Assistance in information gatheringMs Akeela Urfi, Mr Abdul Jalil Lone, Ms Saudia Qutub, Ms Shazia Iqbal, Mr Bashir Irfan, Mr Irfan-ul-Haq, Mr OwaisAziz, Mr Mir Abdul Majid, Mr Gulzar Ahmad, Mr Akhter Hussain, Mr Syed Farooq Ahmed, Mr Abdul Rashid Bhat, MrAbdul Majid, Mr Mr Ajaz Ahmad Sofi, Mr Bashir Ahmad, Mr Farooq Ahmad Shah, Mr Fayaz Ahmad, Mr Fida Hussain,Mr Jetinder Pal Singh, Mr Masroor Mustafa, Ms Mehjabeen Bano, Mr Mohammad Ashraf, Mr Muzamil Hussain, MrNazir Ahmad, Mr Rafiq Ahmad Mir, Mr Rafiq Ahmad Zargar, Mr Sameer Ahmad, Mr Shafiq Hussain, Mr ShahnawazAhmad, Ms Yasmeen Kousar, Mr Tasaduq Hussain, Mr Zahoor Hussain, Mr Abu Ullah, Mr Suhail Azhar, Mr FarooqAhmad Wani, Mr Neyman Hassan, Ms Nuzhat Nasreen, Ms Afroza Akhter, Ms Bisma Ali, Dr (Ms) Fancy Khan, Dr (Ms)Hina Bashir, Dr (Ms) Ruqia, Ms Farah Deeba, Mr Maisar Ahmad, Ms Mubina Akhter, Ms Mumtaza Bano, Mr NadeemBazaz, Ms Narjis Khatoon, Ms Nisar Fatima, Ms Raunaq un Nisa, Ms Roohi Jan, Ms Roshan Shafi, Ms Samina Yaqoob,Ms Sayada Akhter, Ms Shaista Salim, Ms Shufaya Nissa, Ms Ulfat Akhter, Ms Wahida Rehman, Ms Rubaya Nissa, MsQazi Sameera, Ms Farhana Gulzar, Ms Yasmeena Akhter, Ms Saadiya Shafi, Ms Shafiya Gulzar, Mr Abdul Hamid, MsRumaisa Majeed, Ms Fancy Jan, Ms Nusrat Nabi, Mr Bilal Ahmad, Ms Nelofer Hakim, Ms Saika Parvez, Mr MohammadHussain, Mr Tasleem Arif, Mr Wahid Ahmed, Mr Wajid Ali, Mr Hafiz Ullah, Mr Gowhar Ahmad, Mr Mushtaq Ahmad, MsKaneez Zehra, Ms Shabana Farooq, Ms Shafika Akhtar, Dr (Ms) Hina Hijazi, Mr Nazir Ahmad Dar, Mr Bilal AhmadLone, Mr Farooq Ahmad Lone, Ms Kousar Jan, Mr Ilham Jallu (McGill University Canada), Mr Mahjoor Ahmad, MsSumira Nazir, Ms Asiya Nayeem, Ms Shazia Bashir (Kashmir University), Ms Samina Mir, Ms Erzana Domi (DelhiSchool of Social Work), Ms Purnima Venkat, Ms Sampriti Barun, Mr Sobins Kuraikose, Mr Maruti Nandan, Mr KadeySoren (Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai)

Some of the areas and villages covered in the studySedow Shopian, Herpora, Mujpathri Keller, Arhama Shopian, Sedaw, Heerpora, Sangarwani Keller, Abhama Keller,Sumbal Dachinan Keller, Zampathri, Pehlipora Keller, Chaklipora Anantnag, Kuthar Anantnag, Aharbal Kulgam, ManzgamKulgam, Nagbal Budgam, Zowastan/Gulistan, Zinsbal Laam, Shikargah Tral, Karmulla Batnoor,Gujar Basti Gulshanpora,Gutroo Narastan Tral, Kapran Anantnag, Kichama, Nambla, Neloosa, Jambaz Pora, Shutloo Rafiabad, Nadhial Rafiabad,Bandipora, Hadipora, Sialkot, Sheikh Muqam, Ruhama, Aloosa, Guwna Larijungle, Karewas, Watlab, Chandoosa,Nehalpora, Chontpather, Nambalnar Hajibal, Qazipora Tangmarg, Pringal, Kanchan, Kalsan, Choolan, Watergam, DuwaraUri, Paranpilla, Badipora, Muqam Karewas, Doodbug Karewas, Valanvar Shutloo, Aashbal Rafiabad, Khamoh, Brandub,Nilsar Karewas, Chakoola, Chowkibal, Sogam, Bhinpora, Kalaroos, Shumnag, WaderHandwara, Hundi Chowkibal, DiverLolab, Rashanpora, Dardpora, Kachhama Kralpora, Manzgam Handwara, Kupwara Dolipora, Warsun, Sarkooli,Rawatpora, Bagbella, Naicadir, Batpora, Khowerpora, Konagabra, Nawagabra, Chetterkot, Tetwal, Sadna Pass, Akhal,Cherwan, Satran, Reyan, Gund, Kangan, Sonamarg, Doodhpathri, Verinag, Achabal, Lidder Valley, Kulan Razan, Wangath,Khaimo, Shangus, Chowalgam, Beerwah, Arizal, Khan Sahib, Boniyar, Branwar, Gogji Pather, Lolipora, Tral, Shar, Khrew,Pampora, Zewan, Harwan, Dachigam, Fakir Gojri, Watlab, Wullar Lake, Sopore, Baramulla, Kupwara, Sogam

"ActionAid wishes to wholeheartedly thank the people of all the districts of Kashmir who, during field surveys, renderedsupport in providing and obtaining information for this study and in many instances spared a few days in leadingActionAid's team members to mountain locations.

ActionAid also thanks Director, Horticulture, Kashmir; Agriculture Department, Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)and Mr. S A R Shah of the Department of Department of Environment and Remote Sensing for providing valuableinformation for this study.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

● Deficit in food production in Kashmir region hasreached 40 per cent, while the deficit is 30 percent in vegetable production and 69 per cent inoilseed production for a population of 6 million,putting food security at a greater risk. In 1980–81, Kashmir valley had a food deficit of only 23per cent for a total population of 3.3 million.

● As more and more paddy land is changed intorain-fed orchards, Kashmir’s current 40 per centfood grain deficit is likely to touch over 60 percent in the coming 10 years if the current rate ofchange is taken into account.

● Sample surveys reveal that 11909 Kanals ofpaddy land have been converted into rain-feddryland in the districts of Kupwara, Baramulla,Bandipora, Badgam, Pulwama, Kulgam andShopian in recent years.

● As against a revenue of Rs2000 crore from thehorticulture sector, Kashmir’s imports of mutton,milk and poultry have risen to a whoppingRs16000 crore annually from different states ofIndia , making it clear that among other factors,the impacts of climate change have contributedtheir bit in reducing the capacity of the localrural economy to produce these essentialcommodities.

● Large-scale transition from paddy cultivation torain-fed crops poses risk to food security inKashmir. In the post-WTO scenario, as foreignfruits – mainly apples – have started floodingIndian markets, demand for Kashmiri fruits islikely to reduce. Low demand could cripple thecapacity of poor small farmers to buy foodgrains from the market.

● According to the recently released report by theInter-governmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), global temperatures are likely to rise by1.10 Celsius to 6.40 Celsius by 2100. Such ascenario means that the plains of Kashmir wouldno longer receive snow and whatever snow theupper reaches may receive would hardly last tofeed the rivers of the region throughout the year,threatening livelihoods at a large scale.

● Temperature on an average in Kashmir regionhas shown a rise of 1.450 Celsius while in Jammuregion the rise is 2.320 Celsius. The IndianMeteorological Department’s monitoring revealsthat temperatures are increasing in both Jammuand Kashmir valley, with significant increase inmaximum temperature of 0.050 Celsius per year.

● There is a clear unpredictability of the westerndisturbances passing over Kashmir , possiblydue to factors which could be global in nature,with unusual distribution of rainfall in space andtime, shifting patterns of precipitation andsustained deficit of snowfall.

● The study shows that the water level in almostall the streams and rivers in Kashmir hasdecreased by approximately two-thirds duringthe last 40 years.

● There is possibility that heat-trapping gaseswhich have reduced snowfall in Khrew-Pamporeand some areas of Anantnag could spill over toother areas of Kashmir, resulting in less or nosnow in the plains in the coming two decades.

● Hundreds of springs spread all across Kashmirhave either dried up or are in the process of


A flooded street in Rajbagh area of Srinagar. Flooding due to abrupt meltdown of snow as a result of high temperatures inKashmir is a usual occurrence now.

Pho

to:

Irfa

n H

amd

ani,

Act

ionA

id

drying up. Although groundwater level in mostof the plains does not seem to have beenadversely affected, groundwater level onaverage in Karewas and upper areas hasdecreased by one-third.

● Actual time period for snowfall has alsoundergone a change with December and

January receiving scant or no snow whileFebruary and March witness heavy snowfall.

● Quantity of snowfall in Kashmir has clearlyreduced over the last few decades. Althoughoccasionally it does have spells of heavysnowfall, the inability of snow to freeze anddevelop into hard and longer-lasting crystals


owing to higher temperatures has resulted infaster meltdown.

● It has been found that there has been an overall21 per cent reduction in the glacier surface areain the Chenab basin. The mean area of glacialextent has also declined from 1 sq km to 0.32sq km during 1962–2004.

● Many of the areas have seen a completedisappearance of small glaciers such as someparts of eastern Srinagar and Pirpanjal mountainrange in Pulwama District. In other areas, likeBudgam, the height of the small glaciers hasreduced to over one-fourth of the original height.

● In the upper reaches of the Sindh Valley inGanderbal district, the Najwan Akal which wassaid to be a major glacier, has completelydisappeared today. Similarly, the Thajwas, Zojilaand Naranag glaciers used to be large enoughto last up to October through November somedecades back, but today they haveconsiderably reduced.

● While winter and spring water run off has clearlyincreased due to early meltdown of glaciers,resulting in frequent floods, faster meltdown hasresulted in significant decrease in wateravailability in streams during summers.

● The Fakir Gujri area of Srinagar district used towitness snowfall between December and March.But over the years there is snowfall only in themonth of January even as there is snowfall inthe Mahadev hills. Locals attribute this toincreased temperatures in the area. The areareceives about 2ft of snow today as comparedto about 10ft about 40 years ago.

● In the Kapran area in Anantnag (Islamabad),the length of the Hangipora glacier has reducedfrom 35ft to 12ft and the Naaginad glacier hasreduced from 30ft to 10ft. In Chaklipora areathe Galgudi and Wandernad glaciers haveconsiderably decreased in size sinceapproximately the last two decades.

● In Karnah, which falls between the temperateKashmir Valley and semi temperate Pakistan-Administered Kashmir, there is greaterfrequency of flash floods now. Temperatures arealso constantly rising.

● In the Kalaroos village the snow levels havereduced from 10ft to 3ft. In Manzgam villagesnowfall has reduced from 6ft to a maximum of2–3ft. Similarly, people in Wader area ofKupwara report decrease of snowfall from 12ftto 5ft today.

● It has also been observed that the amount ofrainfall during the winter months of December,January and February has also increased incomparison to the past.

● In Choolan area, located in the Shamasbarimountain range in Baramulla district, the nearbyglacier, namely Katha, has reduced from about200ft forty years ago to about 80ft today.

● In Karnah sub-region the glaciers of Shamasbariand Sadhna have decreased in size by morethan half during the last 30 years.

● The Budrukot glacier has reduced from 16ft toonly 5ft in height over the years. The Khujwanglacier in the mountains of the Kichama areahas reduced from 40ft to only 20ft over the years.


The Afarwat glacier around Nambalnar Hajibalarea, which used to be 300m long 40 years agohas completely disappeared today.

● In the upper reaches of the Sindh Valley inGanderbal district, the Najwan Akal which wassaid to be a major glacier, has completelydisappeared today. Similarly, the Thajwas, Zojilaand Naranag glaciers used to be large enoughto last up to October through November somedecades back, but today they haveconsiderably reduced.

● While winter and spring water run off has clearlyincreased due to early meltdown of glaciers,resulting in frequent floods, faster meltdown hasresulted in significant decrease in wateravailability in streams during summers.

● The 2007 spring floods have largely been aconsequence of fast meltdown of snow in themountains, coupled with the spring rains. Infuture, any major snowfall in spring, like the onewhich occurred in March 2007, followed byrainfall stretched over 48hrs could wreck havocin Kashmir Valley.


In the mighty Himalayan mountain range liesKashmir,1 a unique and fragile eco-system, wherepeople are heavily dependent on their naturalenvironment for their sustenance. This raretemperate region in the Indian sub-continent drawsabout 70 per cent of its Gross Domestic Product(GDP) from the surrounding ecological resources.Livelihood of more than 75 per cent Kashmiris isdependent on horticulture, agriculture andhandicrafts with raw material for these being mostlydrawn from the natural environment itself. A majorland reform in the early 1950s makes Kashmir thefirst region in the sub-continent to have undertakenequitable redistribution of land. Kashmir is one ofthe few regions in South Asia which has not facedlarge scale hunger since the last half a century orso. The main reason for this has been good foodsecurity due to highly fertile land and abundant waterresources. Even though agriculture cannot takecredit for the total food security, earnings from non-agriculture produce to a segment of population thatowns land has been ensuring absence of hunger.

Over the years, as a result of certainenvironmental changes like erratic rain and snowfalland fast receding glaciers due to climate change,water is becoming more scarce. Farmers,especially the poor who own very small holdings,are compelled to shift from agriculture to rain-fedfarming and livestock is facing an uncertain future.

The easily discernible impact of climate changeis the fast melting and receding of glaciers inKashmir. Some 40 years ago during summers,women from Srinagar outskirt areas of Dhara andHarwan (barely 15kms in the mountains in the east)would make their livelihood out of selling ice (locally

INTRODUCTION

known as Yakh) in Srinagar city obtained fromglaciers there. They would roam through the cityand sing in Kashmiri, ‘Wai Yakho! Kamyu VanVolmukh! Ha Yakho, Andrei Golkho Yakho! (Oh ice!I marvel what forest I fetched you from? Don’t meltfrom inside). For decades, Kashmir’s mostcherished traditional ice cream maker – Ama Sofi– and his ice suppliers made their livelihood sellingtraditional ice creams in Srinagar Bohri Kadal area,with the same ice. Today there are no glaciers inthe summer months even 40 kms around Srinagar’seast-side mountains. Now women selling ice andAma Sofi selling traditional ice creams from glaciersin Srinagar city are history.

In the course of its work in Kashmir over the lastfew years – mainly in the remote areas – ActionAidhas been perceiving marked changes in both thenatural environment as well as the farm practices,which are slowly influencing the socio-economicfabric of Kashmir’s countryside. Sensing certainlinks of these changes with the global phenomenonof climate change we set out to look into thepossible factors that were causing these changesin Kashmir. At the start we did not assume thatthese changes were a direct consequence of theclimate change phenomenon. Instead, we soughtto rely on people’s understanding of the factors thatwere triggering these changes in the first place.

Putting people’s perceptions about the changesand their understanding of the possible contributingfactors at the centrestage, ActionAid adopted theParticipatory Vulnerability Assessment (PVA)techniques to carry out this study across theKashmir Valley. This is not a scientific study. Rather,this is a report in which primacy has been given to

1


people’s perceptions and quantitative details, ifany, quoted by them only. However, additionalinformation, duly referenced in the report, has beencollected from numerous other sources as well. Inthe course of this study, we have clearly seen thatpeople in the countryside, despite low levels ofeducation, have a fair understanding of the climaticfactors precipitating changes in livelihood patterns.

Information from eight districts for this study wascollected between October 2006 and July 2007through interviews with 571 individuals byActionAid’s 91 local team members, who were alsosupported in a few areas by nine interns fromKashmir University, Tata Institute of Social Sciences,Mumbai; Delhi School of Social Work; Aligarh MuslimUniversity and McGill University, Canada in 61villages of the districts of Anantnag (Islamabad),Kulgam, Pulwama, Shopian, Ganderbal, Srinagar,Budgam, Kupwara, Bandipora and Baramulla. Theissues that have been looked into in this study arethe change patterns in water availability, cropcultivation, glacier size, snowfall, rainfall, floods andthe impact of all these on the livelihoods of peopleliving in Kashmir. The kind of possible futurescenarios quoted in the report by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),based on the changes occurring in the Himalayanmountain regions, also serve to reinforce the findingsin this study.

We have taken care to only include those changesin this report which can be directly attributable toclimate change. Some of the changes occurring inthe livelihood of people in the countryside may alsobe the result of the introduction of new varieties ofseeds, plants and also due to changes in agricultural

practices, market dynamics and the socio-culturalchanges due to the adverse security situation sincethe violent conflict began in 1989. The severefragmentation of the existing land holdings after familyexpansions and subsequent divisions, coupled withscarcer water availability, is making livelihood out ofagriculture an impossibility with each passing year.As a result, the younger generation is findingagriculture an unviable livelihood practice, resultingin mass rural unemployment and giving rise tofrustration and suicides.2

The June 2007 Kashmir government’sconfession that against a revenue of Rs2000 crorefrom the horticulture sector the state importsmutton, milk and poultry worth Rs16000 croresannually from the different states of India has madeit evident that, among other factors, the impact ofclimate change has contributed in reducing thecapacity of the local rural economy to producethese essential commodities.3 It has also expressedits concern over the growing imports of almost allessential commodities, including vegetables, milk,poultry and mutton.

The basic idea behind putting this first-of-its-kind report on climate change in Kashmir in thepublic domain is to make it act as a wake-up callto governments in Srinagar and New Delhi.However, considering the diverse influences andimpacts of these changes in arid, semi arid, semitemperate and temperate zones of Kashmir onpeople’s livelihood we believe there is still a bigscope of looking at these matters much moreclosely, covering more geographical areas inJammu and Ladakh regions. We also believe theneed for the scientific community to look at these

2


A drowned houseboat near Zero Bridge in Srinagar due to heavy snow. Untimely heavy snow in March 2007,accompanied by heavy rains, resulted in severe flooding in Kashmir.

Pho

to:

Irfa

n H

amd

ani,

Act

ionA

id

matters from a scientific point of view since themandate of this study has been primarily to look atimpact of climate chang on people’s

Livelihood in Kashmir The findings of this study clearly underline the

need for governments to factor in climate changein the policy and planning processes in future sothat the uncertainties which climate change holdsfor the livelihood of millions of people in this region,particularly the poor and those rendered vulnerableby geography and the political division, would bekept in sight. Towards that, a futuristic approach

taking into account the current trends in climatechanges and also the depletion of environmentalresources like glaciers and other water sources, isrequired. Equally important is the need for vigorousscientific research in the changed conditions in thefields of agriculture and horticulture and taking thatknowledge to people at the grassroots level,particularly the poor and geographically vulnerable,by both government as well as independentnon government agencies so that Kashmir’s foodsecurity is not compromised and increasingunemployment in rural areas does not result infurther socio-economic problems and deprivation.

3


A recent report by the Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change revealed that globally, 11 out ofthe last 12 years are among the 12 warmest yearsever recorded on earth. Despite a dearth of reliablecomparative data and temperature recordingsacross various areas and sub-regions of Kashmir,recent figures from the Indian MeteorologicalDepartment (IMD) suggest that in Kashmir there isalso an overall increase in average temperatures.On average, Kashmir valley has shown a rise of 1.450

Celsius, while Jammu region has shown a rise of2.320 Celsius over the last almost two decades.

IMD monitoring reveals that temperatures areincreasing in both the regions of Jammu & Kashmirwith significant increase in maximum temperatureby 0.050 Celsius per year in Kashmir Valley andminimum temperature in Jammu region by0.080 Celsius per year.4

Another dimension of climate change in Kashmiris seen in the unusual fall in temperatures inseasons which would normally have a settemperature pattern like in spring. For instance, themonth of May in 2007 has been unusually cold inKashmir. The temperature hovered around 250 to260 Celsius during the second fortnight of May,which, according to experts, is 80 Celsius belownormal.5 During May, Kashmir should have beenexperiencing temperatures ranging somewhereclose to 340 Celcius. Environmentalists attribute thisto rise in average temperature, decrease inprecipitation and loss of vegetation cover inKashmir, particularly during winters. Fifty years ago,Kashmir’s forest cover was 37 per cent of its totalsurface area, which has today reduced to only11 per cent.6

TEMPERATURE RISE

During May 2007, while irregular snowfall waswitnessed in the upper reaches of almost allmountain ranges in Kashmir, the unusual summersnow at altitudes relatively lower made the mercurydip with night temperature going down to around50 Celsius, which was 100 Celsius below normal.Kashmir witnessed at least three days of unusuallate morning fog, particularly on 23 May 2007 inSrinagar, which elders said, was a highly unusualoccurrence during late May.

In spite of this, according to IMD, the plains of

the close-by states of Punjab, Haryana and

Rajasthan experienced sudden rise in temperature

with no convectional rainfall in the region. This is

said to be in complete contrast to the month of May

where usual showers brought the temperature down.

Untimely windstorms andvulnerabilities

The intensity of the windstorms that lashed bothIndian and Pakistani Administered parts of Kashmirin May 2007, resulting in considerable damage totrees and property is something that people inKashmir cannot recall having happened before.Although officials in the IMD have ruled out anyunusual or alarming situation with suchoccurrences, elderly people surveyed in Kashmirare unanimous that the May windstorms wereunusual and not experienced by them in theirlifetime.7

“Untimely and unprecedented windstorms inMay 2007 wiped out the almond crop by 60 percent and destroyed trees and homes of the poor,”says farmer Muhammad Usman Yatoo of Badipora,Nagam. There was massive destruction of

4


temporary shelters in the earthquake-affected areasof Pakistan Administered Kashmir (PAK) and NorthKashmir. Similarly, other crops that were damagedinclude cherry, apricot and walnut. Small farmers,mainly those who live on mountains and depend onwalnut and pear produce for their livelihood are atgreater risk.8

According to an article in Frontlinenewsmagazine an important effect of globalwarming on meteorological conditions is anincrease in sea surface temperature (SST) in theoceans around the Indian subcontinent. Theresulting greater convective activity will lead to anincrease in the intensity or wind speed of cyclonesthat form in them, particularly in the Bay of Bengalwhere over 80 per cent of the cyclones originate.9

However, there is little or almost no evidence toshow that such phenomenon in the Bay of Bengalor the Arabian Sea would impact wind factors inKashmir. Study of geographical and meteorogicalconditions reveal that Kashmir is not usually arecipient of large wind systems from either theArabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal. But rise in average

temperatures across regions surrounding Kashmirand the sudden temperature variations between theplains and the high altitudes of Kashmir are areasthat require in-depth research to understand the May2007 windstorms in Kashmir.

According to the meteorological data studied byActionAid, generally air does not flow directly fromhigh to low pressure but it is deflected to the right inthe Northern Hemisphere. As such, the small andshort-lived systems which are created due totemperature difference in close proximity in thisregion seemingly tend the wind to flow directly fromhigh pressure to low pressure.

The ignition of the May 2007 windstorms aroundMuzaffarabad in Pakistan Administered KashmirValley – travelling towards east to Kashmir Valley –need further investigation and understanding by thescientific community in the backdrop of the newlyevolving temperature gradients. In case such newphenomena persist in Kashmir, poor farmingcommunities depending on single produce in a yearfor their livelihood would face even moreuncertain future.

5


As per the testimonies of people across Kashmir,the quantity of snowfall in Kashmir has clearly reducedover the last few decades. Although occasionally itdoes have spells of late snowfall, however, the inabilityof snow to freeze and develop into hard and longer-lasting crystals owing to higher temperatures rightfrom the plains to higher altitudes has resulted in fastermeltdown. On the higher altitudes, it has beenobserved, inability of snowflakes to turn into hardcrystals due to higher temperatures has severelyimpacted glacier formation.

In areas from where information has beencollected, it is observed that the amount of snowfallhas reduced by over half to one-fourth of what hasbeen witnessed in Kashmir about four decades ago.What is discernible is that the actual time period forsnowfall has also undergone a change with monthsof December and January receiving scant or no snowwhile February and March witnessing heavy snowfall.What has also been observed is that the amount ofrainfall during winter months of December, Januaryand February has also increased in comparison tothe past. This can be attributed to higher temperatureprevalent closer to the earth’s surface in the plainsand the Karewas areas, thereby constraining snowfallin the Kashmir Valley.

In most of the areas the snowfall months havereduced from four months a year to only two monthsa year. This is especially true in the districts ofAnantnag, Kulgam, Srinagar and some areas ofGanderbal and Pulwama.

To understand the exact macro-level trends inprecipitation in Kashmir, it is essential to take intoaccount that data at smaller scales is constraineddue to unavailability of accurate data in the various

sub-regions and geographical locations of thisregion. Given the fact that the easterly-directedcloud systems arising from the WesternDisturbances are responsible for over 70 per centprecipitation in Kashmir region, the knowledge baseavailable on Monsoons in the Indian sub-continentis not fully relevant to understand the precipitationpatterns in Kashmir. Some recent studies on long-term trends of the monsoons indicate that whilethere is no evidence of any change in the rainfallpattern in the gross scale in India, changes arediscernible at smaller scales of space and time.10

Same is the case in relation to WesternDisturbances in Kashmir. These have not beenstudied in a desired manner due to inaccessibilityin Kashmir owing to the ongoing conflict. There isa clear unpredictability of the Western Disturbancespassing over Kashmir, possibly due to factors whichcould be global in nature, with unusual distributionof rainfall in space and time, the shifting patternsof precipitation and deficit of snowfall.

Testimonies of people living in various parts ofthe valley substantiate this. For instance, in SouthKashmir villages of Chaklipora and Kapran, theamount of yearly snowfall has reduced by morethan half.

In Baramulla district, villagers in Hadipora areasay that they used to receive about 6ft of snowannually but today they barely get 2ft, and thismelts away fast. In Rohama area people say theyhave seen reduction in snowfall in their area by one-third of the original snowfall. The Parampillavillage in Uri has seen a reduction in snowfall fromabout 3ft to only 0.2–0.4ft in the past 40 years.

NEW TRENDS IN RAIN AND SNOWFALL

6


The same situation has been reported by peoplein Shatloo village of Rafiabad area. In the Karewasarea of Baramulla, Ghulam Ahmad Reshi ofGulwana Lari Jungle says that the snowfall levelshave reduced from 7ft to only 3ft in that area.60-yr-old Muhammad Maqbool Lone of Janbazporavillage says that the snow levels have fallen from7ft to 1ft only.

According to Ghulam Ahmed Malik, NaibSarpanch Bagbela, Karnah, which falls betweenthe temperate Kashmir Valley and semi-temperatePakistan-Administered Kashmir, “There is greaterfrequency of flash floods now in that area than inthe past. Temperatures are constantly rising.”

In the upper Karewas areas of Budgam,according to locals, snowfall levels haveconsiderably reduced. In Beerwah village ofBudgam, villagers report a fall from 5–8ft of snowfall40 years ago to 0.5–0.10ft today.

In Kangan area of Ganderbal district, villagerssay, there used to be at least 5ft of snow about40 years ago but now hardly half a foot falls.Ali Muhammad (55) of village Wangath says thatsnowfall levels have fallen from 6ft to half foot duringthe last 40 years. 55-yr-old Muhammad Ashraf Mirof Hari Ganwan village cites a two-third reductionin snowfall in their area.

In Hundi village of Kupwara people say therehas been a reduction of about 4ft of snow in thearea over the years. In Chowkibal area, people facethe same situation. Dardpora village, close to theLine of Control in Kupwara, normally used to havesnowfall from November to March. But during the

last few years there is no longer any specific timefor snowfall. In the Kalaroos village the snow levelshave reduced from 10ft to 3ft. In Manzgam villagesnowfall has reduced from 6ft to a maximum of 2–3ft. Similarly, people in Wader area of Kupwarareport decrease of snowfall from 12ft to 5ft today.

Mohammad Jamal Gausi, 72 years, of ZinsbalLaam in Tral area of Pulwama district says that thesnowfall levels in his area have gone down from6–8ft to1–1.5ft today. In Mujpathri village peoplesay snowfall is down from 4–5ft to only a few inchestoday. Similarly, in Zowarstan, villagers report amajor decrease in snowfall over the last 40 years:from 6–8 feet to 1–2 feet as of today.NaikMohammad aged 76 of Sangarwani area says thatthe snow has come down from about 12ft to only0.5 to 4ft in their area.

In Shopian, 85-year-old Mohammad RasheedWani of Sedow village says that snowfall has gonedown from 10ft to 1ft only in their area. Sedaw hasbeen traditionally a high snowfall area situated inthe lap of Pirpanjal mountain range near the famousAhabbal falls. Abdul Hameed Wani, 50yrs old, ofHeerpora area says he has seen snow steadilydwindling from 12ft to a mere 3ft today.

In Fakir Gujri area of Srinagar district, locals saythe area used to witness snowfall betweenDecember and March. But over the years there issnowfall only in the month of January and February,even as there is snowfall in the Mahadev hills.Locals attribute this to increased temperatures inthe area. The area, locals say, receives about 2ft ofsnow today as compared to about 10ft about40 years ago.

7


It can be concluded from the analysis ofpeople’s testimonies and firsthand informationcollected on rain and snowfall that there is agreater unpredictability of rainfall over spaceand time in comparison to the set pattern of thedistrict seasons in Kashmir in the past. There isalso a drastic decrease in snowfall as compared

The picture shows blooming of flowers amidst snowfall in Srinagar in February 2007. Early blooming of fruit blosoms and flowers due towarmer temperatures during February and March in Kashmir has been damaging fruit produce as sudden late snows in February and

March devastate blosoms.

Arji

man

d H

ussa

in, A

ctio

nAid

8

to 40 years ago. This situation is likely to resultin greater livelihood vulnerabilites for the poorfarming communities. People of almost all thesub-regions and geographical locations voicethe concern that rainfall today no longer has anyfixed season and that unpredictability hasincreased.


IMPACT ON GLACIERS ANDFUTURE SCENARIOS

The findings of this study based on interviews heldwith local people in remote locations of Kashmir showthat the glaciers in most of the areas have decreasedin size. Many of the areas have seen a completedisappearance of small glaciers in some parts ofeastern Srinagar and Pirpanjal mountain range inPulwama District. In other areas like Budgam, theheight (averaging 15–20ft) of the small glaciers hasreduced to over one-fourth of the original height asseen in summer months when villagers venture intohighland pastures for grazing their sheep.

Barely 20 years ago, the snow line in Kashmirvalley’s east was just above areas like Pahalgamand Sonmarg (3200m). Currently the line hasreceded to Shiashnag area which is at an altitudeof 5000m only. Same is true of the Pirpanjalmountain range in the west where the snow linewas above Kongwatan and Zaznar (3000–3500m).It is now around Kounsernag and PirpanjalPass (4000–4500m).11

Most of the glaciers of the Great Himalayanrange from Harmuk to Drungdrung includingThajiwas, Kolahoi, Machoie, Kangrez, Shafathave receded far back (4000–5000m) during thelast 50 years when a comparison is made betweentheir extent from Survey of India (SOI) sheets whichare 50 years old and latest satellite imageries.12

While considerable research is being undertakento study the extent and factors of depletion ofglaciers in the Himalayas in Nepal and in the Indianstates of Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal andUttarakhand, owing to the precarious securitysituation in Kashmir Himalayas with high level militarypresence and militant activities, very little work hasbeen done in monitoring glaciers here.

Scientists at the Indian Space ResearchOrganisation’s Space Applications Centre (SAC)in Ahmedabad like Anil Kulkarni and others haveinvestigated the glacial retreat in the Chenab basinin Kashmir, largely by using data from the IndianRemote Sensing satellite and field expeditions andthereby comparing them with the 1962 topographicsurveys by the Survey of India. The study hasshown an overall 21 per cent reduction in the glaciersurface area. According to the SAC, the processof deglaciation has also led to the fragmentation ofthe larger glaciers. The mean area of glacial extenthas also declined from 1 sq km to 0.32 sq km during1962–2004.13 From a study of winter run-off – whichis only on account of snowmelt – the scientists foundthat accumulation during winter has declinedbetween the late 1990s and the turn of thecentury.14. Also, the snow accumulation pattern hadchanged significantly. Likewise, they found that thewinter run-off had increased by as much as 75 percent between 1966 and 1995. If additional areasstart melting in the middle of winter, less snow willbe available for summertime stream run-off thatfeeds the rivers.15

This is already happening in Kashmir. Whilewinter runoff has clearly increased due to earlymeltdown of glaciers, faster meltdown has resultedin significant decrease in water availability instreams during summers.

The Chinese Academy of Sciences, in April 2007stated that if the rate of temperature rises does notchange, glaciers on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau willrapidly shrink, perhaps from 500,000 squarekilometres (193,100 sq miles) in 1995 to 100,000square kilometres (38,600 sq miles) by 2030.

9


Glaciers across the Himalayas and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are a major source for some of therivers, like the Indus in Kashmir. It also warned thatthe glacier-fed rivers could swell as the ice meltsbut then dry out as the ice disappears16. This iswhat has already been witnessed in Kashmir. Therecent spring time floods have largely been as aconsequence of fast melt down of snow in the

mountains, coupled with the spring rains. In future,any major snowfall in spring, like the one whichoccurred in March 2007 in Kashmir, followed byrainfall stretched over 48 hours could wreck havocin Kashmir.

A study by the United Nations EnvironmentProgram (UNEP) and the International Center for

This formerly paddy land has been converted into an orchard in Khan Sahib Karewas due to water shortage. Similarly, thousands of Kanals ofirrigated paddy land have been converted into dray land.

Sau

dia

Qut

ub, A

ctio

nAid

10


Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) revealsthat the temperature in the Himalayan region hasrisen by almost 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degreesFahrenheit) since the 1970’s. This shift in climate hascaused meltdown of snowfalls and glaciers - at thefastest rate in the world (50 feet/15 m per year innorthern India) - even in winter, causing icy water toaccumulate in lakes hedged by unstable dams ofsediment and stone17. Kashmir Valley – with a poorflood management system and landlockedness –faces the perils of a real catastrophe in case in futureSpring-time snow and its subsequent meltdown dueto higher temperatures is coupled with prolongedrainfall activity.

According to Ghulam Mohammad Lone (69) ofKapran area in Anantnag (Islamabad) district lengthof the Hangipora glacier has reduced from 35 feetto 12 feet and the Naaginad glacier has reducedfrom 30 feet to 10 feet. In Chaklipora area theGalgudi and Wandernad glaciers haveconsiderably decreased in size since the last abouttwo decades, locals say.

According to testimonies of villagers in Choolanarea, located in the Shamasbari mountain range inBaramulla district, the nearby glacier, namelyKatha, has reduced from about 200 feet forty yearsago to about 80 feet today. Similarly, as per thepeople living around Tangmarg and Gulmarg,Budrukot glacier in the area has reduced from 16feet to only 5 feet in height over the years. TheKhujwan glacier in the mountains of the Kichamaarea has reduced from 40 feet to only 20 feet overthe years. The Afarwat glacier around NambalnarHajibal area, which used to be 300 feet long 40years ago has completely disappeared today, saysa local, Lal Din.

“Glaciers are disappearing before our eyes –the Shamasbari and Sadhna glaciers in Karhah arenow half the size they were 30 years ago,” saysMaster Shabir Ahmed of Nawagabra village inKarnah sub-region.

In the upper reaches of the Sindh Valley inGanderbal district the Najwan Akal was said to bea major glacier which was a source of water formany villages in the area. But villagers interviewedin Wangath say the glacier has completelydisappeared today. Similarly, the Thajwas, Zojilaand Naranag glaciers used to be large enough tolast up to October–November some decades backbut today they have considerably reduced.

In Kupwara district information collected revealsthat in Bhonpora area three glaciers, namely KakerSeen, Phodala and Godayali have reduced inheight from 10ft to twoft. The Novan top glacier inKalaroos village of Kupwara has reduced in sizefrom 20ft to 10ft. In Wader area of Kupwara districtthe height of the Shinnord glacier has reduced from12ft (30 years ago) to only 2ft today. According tovillagers in Rashanpora area, the Duth glacier hasreduced from 20ft to only 4ft in a period of 40 years.

Interviews held with people living in Pirpanjalmountain range in the Keller block of Pulwamadistrict reveal that glaciers there have reducedby half in size. Most of the testimonies wereobtained from shepherds who take cattle forgrazing in the highland pastures during summers.According to Kamaal Dar (60 years), the PanchalNaad glacier of Zowartan area has decreasedfrom 50ft to 18ft only.

11


“The Nandyan glacier used to be over 120ft andthe Tratnaal glacier at least 150ft. They now can’tbe seen at all in summer,” says 65-year-oldMohammad Jamal Gaursi of Zinsbal Laam area.

In Shikargah area of Tral, Abdul Majeed Bhatsays that the Ari glacier which was earlier about150ft long has completely disappeared since 1990.

In Shopian area, Abdul Hameed Wani(50 years) of Heerpora village says that theZuznard and the Ropali glaciers in the upperreaches of the Pirpanjal connecting with Rajouridistrict used to be big enough to last until the nextwinter. “But since some years they are hardly thereuntil Autumn comes,” he adds. Villagers also recallthe snowstorm of April 2004 when Gujjar nomadsalong with their cattle were caught unawares inthe highland pastures when they had already gonethere after the winter was over and snows hadmelted. “We lost many people and cattle in thatunexpected snowfall. God seems to be angry with

us to bring in such unexpected things,” saysMuhammad Hussain Gorsi, a shepherd whotravels across Pirpanjal mountain range regularlyon foot. Muhammad Sharref Naikoo (70) of Sedowvillage speaks about the Gurwattan glacier in thearea which he says, “used to have a normal size40 years ago.” “But today,” he says, “the glacier isonly half of its original size.”

In the Harwan area of Srinagar district near theDachigam National Park, Lassa Bhat, a villager,points towards the Mahadev peak and its adjacentmountains saying that the glaciers which he usedto see 40 years ago in his youth are hardly theretoday. Similarly, Munsher Khan of Fakir Gujri village,who used to move around with his cattle in theMahadev mountain range, says that although hehas not gone to the Tarsar Marsar lake area sincemany years due to security reasons, he has heardfrom his fellow shepherds that glaciers in that areaare fast disappearing.

12


Interviews held with people across Kashmirclearly indicate that there is not a single waterstream in Kashmir today which has not witnessedwater depletion over the years. Analysis of the datacollected from the eight districts of Kashmir in thecourse of this study show that the water level inalmost all the streams and rivers has decreasedby about one-third, in some cases even by half,during the last 40 years. It is the water flow in thesmall streams and tributaries that finally determinethe overall water availability in Kashmir’s three mainrivers, namely Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, whichfinally flow into Pakistan.

Over the last few years, sudden rise intemperatures (usually 4–50 Celsius above normal)in the months of February, March, April and Mayhas resulted in faster melting of glaciers, therebyflooding most of the streams and rivers in thesemonths. These are the months when the water ofalmost all the streams and rivers goes waste in theKashmir region due to non availability of storagesites and flows into Pakistan where large reservoirson the streams of Jhelum, Chenab and Indus helpthat country to store waters. However, based onthe testimonies of people who have been heavilydependent on these streams in various parts ofKashmir for agriculture and other livelihoodactivities, it is clear that the net water availability inall streams and rivers has considerably reduced.

In Kupwara district the net availability of waterin streams, according to the local residents, hasclearly diminished in the last forty years. Says AbdulAhad, a social activist in Kupwara town, “When welook at the Taler stream in the Bhinpora area ofKupwara the water level has reduced from about

5ft to 1ft during summer time.” In Kachhama areaof the district water level in the Darnar andManzemnar streams has reduced from 6ft to hardly2ft. In Chowkibal area, the Kehmil stream,according to locals, has reduced from 5 feet to 3feet. The same stream in Manzgam village downhillhas reduced to hardly one-and-a-half feet. TheDarnar stream of Kachhama has gone down fromabout 6ft to only 2ft.

In Baramulla district, interviews with local peoplein and around the Wullar Lake and analysis ofvarious versions put by them about the reductionof its height reveals that the depth of the lake hascome down from 40ft to an average of 20ft.Although there are other factors like siltation,growing plantation inside the lake area anddisruption of the normal ecological and livelihoodactivities of the local people in the lake due to itstake over by the Indian Navy, overall loss of waterin the Wullar lake is certainly a reality.

In Watergam area the water level of its Dahgaamstream, according to the locals, has reduced from6ft to hardly half a foot during summer times.Villagers in Pringal block and Parampilla village ofBaramulla say that water availability in the Jhelumriver has considerably reduced over the last40 years and so has their approach of navigationand other chores of life.

Quoting his elders, Shahnawaz Ahmed ofBaramulla town says, “Water in Jhelum used to beas high as 20ft during average flow times but nowit is hardly 4–5ft.” He recalls how during hischildhood days it was very difficult to cross theriver by swimming during summer days but nowyoungsters easily cross it in the same season.

DEPLETING WATER SOURCES

13


Muhammad Maqbool Lone (60 years) who haslived all his life in Janbazpora, Baramulla, says hehas seen the Jhelum waters receding drasticallyduring the lean season over the last 40 years. Atthe Duwara village near Uri, elderly villagers saythe Jhelum water level has reduced by about 10 ftsince the last 40 years. Babul Canal is an importantirrigation stream which originates from Tangmarg

and flows through the Kreeri and Pattan belts ofBaramulla. At Chontpattar, Baba Reshi, locals saythere has been a 4ft-water drop in the Ningli Nallahover the last 40 years or so, resulting in largeswathes of paddy lands being turned intohorticulture lands. According to the locals they hadproposed a plan for revival and water adjustmentof the Babul Canal to the government but owing to

A dried out spring amidst illegally felled trees near Doodhpathri in the Pirpanjal mountain range in May, 2007. Illegal felling of trees anddwindling natural water sources have resulted in drying up of hundreds of springs in Kashmir.

Arji

man

d H

ussa

in, A

ctio

nAid

14


the objections by the Indian Indus Commission,the project was not approved. Shujaat Bukhari, aprominent journalist of Kashmir, belonging to afarmer family from Kreeri, says that hundreds ofKanals of land has dried out with people switchingover to other agricultural and horticultural activitiesin that area.

In Choolan area of Baramulla streams like Kulsumand Cholu completely go dry during summer seasonnow. Similarly, in Hadipora village water in the Vijinallastream has reduced from about 5ft to only about 1fttoday. In areas like Tangmarg, streams like FerozporaNallah have seen major water reduction over theyears. It is completely dry in summer and autumnseasons. In other areas the study indicates thatstreams are completely drying up during earlysummer. The Reshi Kul stream of Aloosa Bandiporawhich used to have about 4ft of water does not carryany water during summer and autumn times thesedays. Similarly, in Rohama area, the Wigi and Daklinallas have almost completely dried up, exceptduring rainy days. The Zafar Nallah in Nehalporaarea of Baramulla has seen depletion of water flowfrom an average 5 feet to almost no water todayduring Summer and Autumn times.

In Anantnag (Islamabad) district, water levelsin almost all major streams and rivers there, as perthe analysis of the collected data, shows that waterflow during Summer and Autumn seasons hasreduced by more than half since the last 40 years.This is clearly reflected from testimonies frompeople living around the Aripat and Gamed streamsof Kulhar village and Thimran Nallah & Bradi Nallahof Chaklipora villages. According to locals, waterflow in the Mudbal Naad stream of Kapran area in

South Kashmir has reduced by more than halfduring the last 40 years.

In Shopian district, things are hardly different.According to 70-year-old Muhammad ShareefNaikoo, the two streams of Aharbal and Watig flowingin Sedow area have clearly reduced. Locals makecomparisons of Nallah Vishav by referring to theamount of water flow at the Aharbal waterfall 40 yearsago and today. At Heerpora village, Abdul RazaqLone (75 years) attributes decrease of water flow inRambiara and Kawkul streams to ‘deforestation andclimatic change’. When asked what makes him toattribute this decrease to climate change, he talksabout the amount of snow the area used to get 40years ago, the longer duration of freezing of snowand slower melting than what happens today. “I cantell you we clearly used to have better water flow formost of the time of the year,” says Razaq.

In Budgam district, villagers from Arizal andKhan Sahib areas have said that the water levelsin Sokhnag, known downstream as Ahji, and theZaim stream have seen depletion by two-thirdsduring the last two decades or so. Peoplecommonly talk about less water availability for theirpaddy fields and change of paddy lands intodrylands. Water has also clearly receded in theShaliganga stream as well. “Today one can clearlysee water depletion in streams of Badgam affectingagricultural and livelihood practices,” says AhmedAli Fayaz, a prominent Kashmiri journalist who hasbeen brought up in a farmer family from the samearea. People living around Romshi and Manshistreams in Nagbal area say that water hasconsiderably reduced and no longer meets theneeds of the people there.

15


In Pulwama district, Naik Muhammad ofSangarwani area in the Panpanjal mountain rangein Pulwama district re-collects that Hakdiyagistream in the area used to have sufficient waterflow throughout the year during his childhood40 years ago but today it dries up in July tillNovember or December. According to GhulamMohiuddin Wani of Karmulla Bhutnoor in Tral area,water availability in the Budwhat Nalla hassignificantly reduced, making it dry from June untilDecember.

A conversation in the foothills of the mightyMahadev mountain overlooking Srinagar with LassaBhat of New Theed in Harwan village is hardlydifferent:

“The Mawas stream used to have so much water30 years ago back that children could not cross.But today to him, children easily cross the streamany time, except during flash floods,” he says.

Munsher Khan, the headman of Fakir Gujrivillage, further up in the same mountain range, talksof the Darwani and Fakir Gujri streams. “Thesestreams were once the major source of water forpaddy fields downstream. They also fed Dal Lake.But now, they have hardly any irrigation value,” saysKhan.

Zaffar Ahmed Bhat, a young engineer, from thesame area points to the Sarband water reservoirbordering Dachigam National Park at Harwan andsays that through a special effort, by diverting waterupstream from a stream, increased embankmentwater has been retained in the reservoir during 2007.

“Otherwise it was completely dry as there was nowater since more than 10 years in it,” adds Zaffar.

Moulvi Mehboob-ur-Rehman (70 years) ofWangath village, Ganderbal district says, “TheGangabal stream in the area has markedly driedup early this year.” Muhammad Ashraf Mir of HariGanwan village says that water in the stream of thevillage has reduced from 4ft to 1ft in the peak flowtime and there is almost no flow during summers.

The official hydrological data of all main riversof Kashmir Himalayas and their major tributariesshow that today the discharge of these rivers andtributaries has almost halved as compared to only50 years back – be it in Jehlum, Chenab or anyother river or in major tributaries like Liddar,Sandren, Vishow, Rambiara and others. Today thedischarge of Chenab is less than half of what was60 years ago and the discharge is diminishingyear after year. Fifty years ago Chenab basin usedto have about 8000 sq km area under glaciers,permanent and ephemeral snow cover whichwould contribute huge quantities of water duringsummer to this river through numerous perennialtributaries as compared to the present 4100 sqkm snow cover area.18

Another peril that is in store for the Jammu &Kashmir States is in the form of flash floods. Manyareas of all the three regions, as seen in the floodsof the last three years, are vulnerable to flash floods.Spring rains coupled with fast melting of snows onhigh altitudes could wreck havoc with our plains inJammu, Kashmir and the valleys of Ladakh.

16


ActionAid surveys conducted in various areasof Kashmir indicate that the impact of climaticchanges is being felt in a variety of ways. One ofthe most critical is the influence on farm practices.In the Karewas areas there is a general pattern offarmers switching from paddy cultivation to rain-fed horticulture and low irrigation crops such asmaize, oats, grazing grass and vegetables.Inadequate natural irrigation from glacier-fedstreams coupled with low returns on rice crops areinfluencing people to risk turning to markets to buytheir rice while investing their land and hopes onfinancial returns from rain-fed crops.

For instance, in Kangan area of Ganderbal, thelocals say there has been loss of mustard cropbecause of less water availability. According toAbdul Jabbar (60) of Hadipora, Baramulla mustard,alsi, apricot, and cherries were fast disappearingin that area due to erratic rains and water availability.In Chowkibal area in Kupwara, which is the lastinhabited geographical area in the temperateKashmir Valley linking it to sub-tropical Pakistanadministered Kashmir, locals say that due togeneral temperature rise and less availability ofwater, summer varieties of rice like Nick Cheenaand traditional Kashmiri apples have almostdisappeared from the area.

According to information made available by theDepartment of Agriculture, Kashmir, the region has44 per cent deficit in food production, 30 per centin vegetable production and 69 per cent in oilseedproduction. Most of the deficit is covered eitherthrough the Public Distribution System (PDS) or theopen market. Kashmir grows a number oftemperate fruits and nuts. An area of 1.75 lakh

hectares is under these crops with an annualproduction of 12.28 lakh metric tons.

The effect of climatic changes on foodproduction and fruits in Kashmir has differentfacets. Over the last few years, there has beendistinct slow growth in production, some factors ofwhich can be attributed to climate change. Whilegrowth and output of some crops, like Saffron, havebeen badly affected, low returns from otherrain-fed crops in Kashmir’s Karewas areas, likemaize, etc., are posing challenges to communitiesliving between mountains and plains in their foodsecurity and support to livestock. Although shiftingfrom paddy to high yielding cash crops and fruitshas yielded better economic returns in many areas,particularly in the Karewas areas of Kupwara,Baramulla, Badgam and Pulwama, food securityhas been compromised as failure of returns fromnew cash crops means loss of both secured riceas well as income from the newly-adopted crop.

The extreme sudden rise and fall of temperaturessince the last few years, especially during 2007 issaid to create metabolic disturbances amongcrops. According to the Director of the AgricultureDepartment, Ghulam Hyder Bhat, if the fluctuationin temperature continued in the Valley for more time,the overall production yield of paddy, which is themain crop of the Valley, may fall by 15–30 per cent.

He further says that if the weather conditions remainunstable in otherwise stable seasons, then thepaddy seedlings will not get the necessary timerequired to mature. “The fluctuation of temperatureaffects the normal growth of the seedling, which inturn will affect the overall production of the paddy,”says Bhat.

IMPACT ON AGRICULTUREAND HORTICULTURE

17


According to information obtained from theDepartment of Agriculture, Kashmir, there is a growingdeficit in percentage terms of food grain productionin relation to population growth in Kashmir.In 1980–81, Kashmir valley had a food deficit of only23 per cent for a total population of 3.3 million. In2005–06 Kashmir’s valley’s food deficit has risen to40 per cent for a population of 6 million. The deficittrend can be seen from the table given below:

Year Production Population Requirement % Deficit

1950–51 206.30 1795304 307.00 32

1980–81 486.92 3269276 559.05 23

2005–06 620 5985340 1023.49 40

Production/Requirement: As per Minimum Nutritional Standards ofCereals = 420 gm/day/head, Pulses = 50 gm/day/head

Source: Agriculture Department, Kashmir

According to agriculture experts, paddyseedlings need at least 120 days to fully matureand give good output.

The severe fluctuation in temperature during2007 has been making crops vulnerable to disease.During April and May 2007, extreme fluctuationgave rise to diseases like tip burn, yellowing andfoot rot in nurseries raising tree saplings inKashmir.19

The Department of Horticulture, Kashmir warnedin June that the fluctuation in temperature may delaythe growth of the fruits as the required humidityand temperature were missing for some time inSpring and early summer, threatening good growthand yield.

The Director of the Horticulture Department,Kashmir, Dr G S Naqash says that generally‘Kashmir used to have well defined seasons until

the 1990s while the post-90s period has witnessedaltering climates, followed by drought years from1998 to 2003’.

“This year what we observed: we had abruptrainfall and heavy snowfall in February. At that time,our almond crop was just blooming. Due to snowfall,we lost 60 to 70% of our almond crop,” says Naqash.

In April 2007, Kashmir witnessed unprecedentedheat for the season. According to experts in theHorticulture Department, fruits including cherry,plums, peach and apricot had begun to mature verywell at prematurely high temperature. However, inthe absence of normal rainfall, nutrient intake fromthe soil was reduced, preventing normal growth anddevelopment of the fruit.

The month of May witnessed unusual hailstorms andwindstorms. Fruits like cherry, plum, peach and apricotwere damaged. According to sources in the HorticultureDepartment, 40 to 50% of the crop was lost. Theunprecedented windstorm that lashed Kashmir on11 May 2007 resulted in the grapes being cut off fromtheir trees, resulting in 70% crop loss.

Ghulam Mohammad Lone (69 years) of theKapran area of Anantnag district attributes thedisappearance of almond trees from that area totemperature rise and less water availability. InHeerpora area of Shopian, which is popular for itspotatoes, Abdul Razaq Wani (50 years) lamentsthat the increasing loss of red potatoes and beansfrom that area was due to factors which wereunknown to them. In Heerpora area, over hundredsof acres of forests have been indiscriminately cutand turned into fruit orchards by local people whoare increasingly losing their traditional livelihooddrawn mostly from the forest produce.

18


In Karnah sub-region, over the years there hasbeen less yield from paddy and maize. SaysMuhammad Syed Sheikh, Sarpanch of villageKhudpora, “Due to less water in the stream of BatMoji during summer time, there is not adequatewater for irrigation as surrounding glaciers aremelting fast.”

Over the years there has also been a trend ofintroducing many new crop varieties in Kashmir forbetter productivity and also for adaptability to thechanged environmental situations. Certain changesin the crop cultivation patterns are attributed tofactors which are not directly linked to climatechange, like introduction of new kind of seeds,genetically modified crops, trees and imported cropvarieties. But there is another aspect to theintroduction of these crops in the valley. Many ofthe new crop and plant varieties have beenintroduced since there is a market demand forthese. It has been found that the traditional Kashmiriapple has almost disappeared from Kashmir.Other varieties of apples such as Delicious Apple,American Apple and Bulgarian Apple have beenintroduced which now constitute more than70 per cent of the total produce from Kashmir.Similarly, according to farmers, new varieties of ricesuch as Farmi, K-39, etc., have been brought intoKashmir. In Diver and Kalaroos areas of Kupwara,locals say that with the introduction of newvarieties of rice, traditional varieties have almostcompletely vanished.

In the productive Kerawa belt of Kashmir, theeffects of environmental changes like rise inaverage temperatures, erratic snow and rainfall anddwindling natural irrigation water are observed the

most. Surveys undertaken in various areas of theKarewas show that rise in average temperatures

and early and fast meltdown of glaciers in thePirpanjal mountain range have severely affectedwater availability to a great extent during the lastone and a half decades. This has decreased theagricultural output of the area and thus certaincrops have either completely failed or are being

replaced by low-water fodder. Sample surveysundertaken during this study in the Karewas ofBadgam district reveal that saffron yield hasdecreased to almost half since the last ten years.

In the Sindh Valley of Ganderbal district throughwhich flows one of the most important tributariesof the Jhelum – the Sindh Nallah – people have

spoken about failure of plant nurseries. Says MoulviMehboob-ur-Rehman (70 years) of Wangath area,“Nurseries of poplar, apple and apricots in our areahave failed due to less rain and snowfall.” He hasalso pointed out to fast depleting water flow in thetributaries of the Sindh Nallah due to early meltdown

of snow in the upper reaches of the Sindh Valley.Munsher Khan, headman of Fakir-Gujri village inSrinagar district has said that due to depleted waterin the streams and reduced rain, the yield of maizeand cherry has gone down by more than half withpeople cutting their cherry trees to switch over to

less water-intensive crops and trees. Villagers inthe Sogam area of Kupwara have lamented the lossof Shool pulse and Zag rice in their areas. Whathas been a consolation though is the introductionof the K-78 variety of paddy which farmers say hashelped them to offset production losses due to

environmental factors.

19


Change in crop patternsAs mentioned in the previous chapters, there is aclear trend of switching over from paddy and othertraditional irrigation-based crop cultivation to rain-fedfruits or cash crops in Kashmir. Although reducedavailability of irrigation water is one prime reason forthe shift, the potential of higher income from the newcrops is a clear incentive. There is another dimensionto this. The fragmentation of landholdings in Kashmirover the years among family members has decreasedthe average landholdings in the countryside by more

than one-fourth in the last three decades or so. Now,on an average, a family hardly owns four Kanals ofland, making it economically unviable for them to growpaddy. Although in economic terms, under idealconditions it does make better sense for many farmingfamilies holding small land and facing water scarcityto switch over to fruits, such a transition has anotherperil in it. This switch over is based on certainassumptions like favorable climatic conditions, nomajor diseases, sustained yield and market demand.However, in case Kashmir’s climate continues to slide

With dwindling food security due to failure of crops, mainly in Karewa areas of Kashmir, more and more communities are becomingdependent on markets and Public Distribution System (PDS) for obtaining their foodgrains. Geographical isolation makes Kashmir vulnerable

to food insecurity in the event of any major natural disaster or a large-scale armed conflict or war.

Gul

zar A

hmed

, Act

ionA

id

20


into uncertainty, endangering yield from fruits andcash crops, another danger could well be in store:that is food insecurity. As more and more land underpaddy cultivation is changed into orchards, Kashmir’s44 per cent food grain deficit is likely to touch over 60per cent in the coming 10 years if the current rate ofchange is taken into account. Such a situation couldpose serious food insecurity in Kashmir in the face ofits landlockedness and frequent closure of its onlysurface link with rest of the world due to naturaldisasters. Due to the raging conflict in the region manyremote areas like Ladakh, Kargil, Gurez, Karnah, etc.,could face serious food insecurity in case the presentpublic stocking system and road linkages breakdown. In case the current markets for Kashmiri fruitsand cash crops reached the saturation level in India,and the traditional Srinagar-Muzaffarabad trade routeremaining continuously closed, competition fromforeign fruits would escalate. As a result of loweredtrade barriers on farm products there is a possibilitythat demand and prices would fall. This kind of asituation would be a real economic catastrophe forthe poor farmers of Kashmir.

District PADDY land being changed INTORAIN-FED HORTICULTURAL LAND

(In Kanals*)

Pulwama 2500

Budgam 1112

Anantnag 3700

Kulgam 1250

Bandipora 695

Baramulla 1152

Shopian 1500

* The figures given by respondents are approximate.

In the course of this study, we have been able tocome up with an indicative data on the extent paddyland is being converted into rainfed horticultural land.Although this data is not exhaustive, however, it isreflective of an overall pattern.

Factors responsible for the changeAs the data was being collected from farmers in

various paddy-growing areas, those who hadresorted to this switch over came up with a numberof reasons for the same. The major reason put forthhas been irrigation water scarcity. They have alsospoken about the inconsistency in weatherconditions at the time of plantation and harvestingtimes. Other reasons being cited by farmers are poorquality and lack of availability of seeds, affectingcrop yield. What is also attracting farmers towardsthe switch over are better economic returns andlesser input in terms of labour and maintenance.

Says Mohammad Sultan, a farmer fromPhajiwara in Anantnag district, “It is because ofwater scarcity that our paddy land was changedinto orchard land.” Abdullah Dar from Kulgamattributes the change-over to better profits than thatin paddy. However, in areas such as Loolipora,Achabal, Mujepathri and Rafiabad, where sufficientirrigation water is available, farmers have stuck withtheir traditional crops.

However, there is another dimension to thisproblem and that is change from horticulture to rain-fed cereals such as maize, oats and various typesof grazing grass. Says Abdul Ahad Wagay (65)from Sangarwani area in Pulwama district, “We hadto give up horticulture as for many years we hadvery less rainfall and high temperatures. Now we

21


grow cereals in our land instead.” Due to very smallland holdings averaging five kanals, the produceis usually of no commercial value and getsdomestically consumed. Ghulam Hassan Thokar(70 years) from Padpowan and MohammadAbdullah Bhat (62 years) from Boorihalan areas ofShopian district attribute the change-over to scantwater and failure of governments to provide qualityseeds and guidance.

Lack of irrigation waterIn view of the limits put by the India-Pakistanbilateral Indus Water Treaty (1960) on the amountof water Kashmir can draw for irrigation of itsagricultural land from its own rivers, the increasein net irrigated land since 1960 has almost beennegligible.20 There are instances, as mentioned inthe previous chapters, when newly-conceivedirrigation projects have not been cleared by theIndia-Pakistan Indus Commission. As a result, thescope for increasing irrigation in Kashmircontinues to be extremely dismal. Echoes AbdulAhad Magray (60 years) of Bandipora district,

“Government doesn’t pay any heed for providingirrigation to our lands. We have simply given up.”

Impact on livestockIn the course of information collected for this studyin the upper Karewa areas, communities in almostall the areas have said that heavy military presenceand militant activities in the upper reaches in mostof the areas have constrained their access tohighland pastures. But owing to early meltdown ofsnow, the time period of access to highland pastures,mainly in the Pirpanjal range (except for ToshaMaidan which is under army control) has increasedby about 1–2 months. However, Dr Farooq AhmedKalloo, Deputy Director, Animal HusbandryDepartment, Kashmir, has environmental concernson this. “In the past when the access to highlandpastures was naturally regulated by the season cyclethere was a natural ecological balance, but now withincreased access to some highland pastures, mainlyin the Pirpanjal range, there is great level of depletionof flora and fauna.”

22


CRISIS IN SAFFRON BELT:PAMPORE-KHREW CASE STUDY

One distinct geographical area in Kashmirfamous for its production of saffron is the Pampore-Khrew belt. It has been witnessing a highly unusualphenomenon over the last two decades of receivingthe least snowfall in entire Kashmir. This conditionis strange given the fact that even when the areasin its close vicinity on the same altitude – barely15–20 kms away in Srinagar and Pulwama – receive1–2ft of snow, this geographical area receives eitherrain or 1–3 inches snow only. We took up thePampore-Khrew plateau as a special case studyto understand the reasons for such an unusualsituation. We traveled through Pampore, Wuyen,Khrew, Khonamoh, Shar areas and spoke to peopleto understand their perception about thisphenomenon.

One of the prime reasons attributed by thelocals is the industrial units which have come upin the area since 1982. The smoke and dustparticles exuding from these factories stagnatein the local atmosphere for a longer time becausethe area is surrounded by high mountains fromtwo sides in the east and north. Since the normalwind in Kashmir Valley blows from west to east,ActionAid’s investigations in the area haverevealed that the smoke remains trapped for alonger time, increasing the temperature in its loweratmosphere because of larger amounts of warmergases present in the air. The absence of any treecover over the surrounding mountains compoundsthe problem, the presence of which could haveoffset the excess carbon content in the air.Although normally in hotter regions aerosols arebelieved to have a cooling effect on the lowerenvironment, in the case of a cold region likeKashmir, investigations have shown, extreme cold

temperatures and cloud cover during winter donot make aerosols create a cooling effect on thesunlight falling on the earth’s surface.

The kind of coal used in the cement factories inthe area has high sulphur and carbon content andthe percentage of ash is also high. As a resultcarbon and heat get trapped in the loweratmosphere.21 Experts warn that in case morecarbon gets accumulated in the valleys of Kashmir,snowfall may also be impacted in other parts ofKashmir.22 With South Kashmir, mainly the plainsof Anantnag district already witnessing lessersnowfall as compared to other areas of the Valleydue to its proximity to Khrew-Pampore area, andspillover of heat trapping gases to other areas ofKashmir, the possibility of less or no snow in theplains cannot be ruled out.

During precipitation in winters, when rest ofKashmir receives snowfall, ActionAid’s investigationshave revealed that this area has a higher temperaturein the local atmosphere melting down the snow flakeson their journey to the earth’s surface, resulting inrain in the area or scant snowfall. There is also fastermelting of snow on the ground in the area. Localssay that even the scant snow that they receive isusually greyish in colour.

One important factor that has decreasedsaffron yield in the area by about 70 per cent couldbe this localised climate havoc that industrialactivity and lack of tree cover in its surroundingmountains have done. “Eight kanals of land usedto fetch me 1.5 to 2 kg of saffron before 20 yearsbut now it is only 200 grams,” says Abdul Hameed,a local farmer.

23


According to the locals, the area has alsowitnessed near extinction of some herbal and cropvarieties like Krathi Dal, Oats, Alish, Shool andWishik.

According to Haji Mohammad Maqbool (75), aretired teacher, from Shar Shali Pampore, water inGrate Kol has decreased by more than 50 per cent.He says the local water table has also gone downand springs were either dried up or are drying up.

People in these areas have largely shifted frompaddy to maize. However, if adequate rains fail,they grow some grass for fodder use of domesticanimals. The net sown area, according to the locals,has receded due to scarcity of water.

There is also a change in people’s lifestyle in asense because they have to now buy foodgrainslargely from open markets. In this area, like in manyother areas of Kashmir, blooming of almond andother fruits happens now in February in comparisonto March or April in the past. Vulnerability ofblossoms to fall due to spring winds has increased,interviews with the local people in the areas reveal.

A retired government employee, 72-year-oldAbdul Salam Bhat of Khrew village says, “Waterflow availability in the springs of the area namelyShala Nag, Nagbal Nag, Mada Pokhri, Nagrad,

Gruptuk Nag, Khar Nag, Wani Nag, Dhaiwa Naghas reduced from half to absolute zero.

He says that while the productivity of newimproved varieties of crops and plants in the areais good, cultivation was not possible due to scarcityof water in the area.

According to the locals, the stream of Nagabaldries down completely during summer times. Thelocals have another worry. Due to early bloomingof fruit flowers, production gets impacted as latespring hail- and windstorms take away a largenumber of flowers.

In the nearby Khanmoh area, the Batnag, Diwaand Bungam Nag springs are already extinct. Thearea also receives, if at all, 2–3ins of snow annually.Less returns from saffron is making people shift toapple cultivation.

In the Sharshali area, streams like Grati Kol, HariKol, Shah Kol and Raitrag Nag have seen depletionof water by more than two-thirds. Wahab Kol hascompletely dried out. According to the elders inthe village, the mountains overlooking the area usedto have a glacier, Mastinibal, which used to stretchto the bottom of the village about 50 years ago.But today it has disappeared.

24


RECOMMENDATIONS

● Although some of the factors of global warmingare global in nature, like climate change,Kashmir needs to take steps locally to minimiseemission of greenhouse gases. It has beenobserved that most of these heat trapping gasesget trapped in Kashmir valley due to highmountains on all sides.

● The environmental and social impactassessment regime for big projects needs acomplete overhaul in Kashmir. The current socialand environmental impact assessments carriedout at governmental level do not address allareas of concern regarding adverseenvironmental impact of big projects.

● Kashmir valley remains highly vulnerable totrapped gases in its environment. Kashmirgovernment needs to review its policy decisionto trade its carbon credits in internationalmarkets and also address the growing concernsabout underestimation of emission ofgreenhouse gases in Kashmir, particularly inKashmir valley. Stringent laws need to be put inplace not only for checking emission fromprivate vehicles and industrial units, but alsofor large-scale emissions from government/military establishments, from charcoal basedheating systems in winters.

● Currently hundreds of heavy military vehicles inover 300 convoys and other paramilitary andgovernment vehicles move throughout Kashmireveryday, producing a high level of green housegases. They are outside the purview of the lawenforcing agencies in pollution control. TheGovernment must create a mechanism to bringall non-civilian entiries within the ambit of State

law to prevent this pollution as the militaryvehicles move through the most ecologicallysensitive areas of Kashmir.

● Government as well as non governmentagencies need to study the impact of WTO andtrade liberalisation policies on the marketingvulnerability of Kashmiri fruits. Any major changein market demand or pattern of demand wouldrender thousands of poor farmers of Kashmirwithout sufficient income to make a livelihood.

● There is a real danger of loss of food security ofmore than 4 million people living in vulnerableKarewa areas and enclaves like Uri, Gurez,Karnah, Drass, Ladakh and Doda in case offailure of fruits or lack of demand. A Foodsecurity monitoring mechanism at thegovernmental and non governmental levels,taking into account present and futurevulnerability, is required.

● All though creation of large storage dams orreservoirs on the large rivers in the state underthe Indus Water Treaty are not permitted, specialfocus needs to be put on innovative rain waterharvesting techniques, creation of smallcheckdams and reservoirs to prevent runoffduring rainy season. Such water conservationmeasures would help in making water availableduring dry summer times.

● Although promotion of tourism is one of the majorpriorities for government, a shift of focus frominfrastructure intensive tourism to eco-tourismis a dire necessity. Horizontal economic benefitto poor communities through eco-tourism wouldhave better economic benefits in comparison

25


to vertical economic benefit to a few corporatehouses. This would also help in economicbenefit to the poor and marginalised peoplein areas like Bungus (Kupwara), Gurez valley,Bhaderwah, Lolab valley, Naagberan ( Tral) ,Rajori, Pounch, Doda, etc.

● Promotion of large-scale pilgrim tourism inecologically fragile eco systems, which resultsin tremendous pollution of water bodies andgeneration of huge amounts of carbon-di-oxide,remains a matter for deep concern. Urgentsteps are required to be taken to addressenvironmental concerns voiced by the StatePollution Control Board (SPCB) on large-scalepilgrim tourism in the State from time to time.

● Government needs to seriously pursuereopening of traditional road links of theKashmir valley with the outside world to helpreduce people’s vulnerabilities to climatechange and natural disasters. Kashmir valleyhappens to fall under the highly vulnerableZone V of the seismic zone. Any eventuality ofanother major earthquake and subsequentbreakdown of road communications andcollapse of bridges due to landslides couldresult in a major humanitarian catastrophe,especially for many land-locked and isolatedareas. Growing food insecurity as a result ofshift to horticulture could pose additional risksin such a situation, especially for the poor.

● The Sheri-Kashmir University of AgricultureSciences (SKUAST) needs to undertakerigorous research on locally appropriateclimate resistant crops and take that researchto the farming communities. Although currently

SKUAST, Agriculture and HorticultureDepartments do undertake such activities,community based organisations and NGOsneed to be involved to engage with village levelbodies for popularising climate resistant cropsand livelihood avenues.

● In view of the scarce land in the Kashmir valleyand growing fragmentation of landholdings dueto family expansions, it is estimated that80 per cent of the existing landholdings inKashmir valley would fail to sustain the foodsecurity of a 6–10 member family beyond sixmonths of a year in the next one decade or so.Policy planners in the state need to factor inthis slow onset change to make necessarychanges in their futuristic planning.

● Despite erratic rain and snowfall, defying theseason-based precipitation pattern of the past,the water table in the plains of Kashmir is stillhigh and there is a tremendous scope forexploiting groundwater in the state. Formulatinga policy on ground water extraction and itsusage would help in overcoming water scarcityduring lean periods of the year. This would alsohelp in catching the lost runoff during winterseason to make the best use of the availablewater for agriculture purposes.

● Desilting of all major rivers in Kashmir is anurgent necessity to prevent flooding of the valley.Opening of all flood channels for desilting andissue of licenses to soil mining companies are amust for reducing flood vulnerability and currentmining of the fertile Karewas.

26


● The growing tendency of communities living on

the fringes of forests to eke out a living from

illegal forest produce trade due to falling returns

from traditional farming is a matter of grave

concern. Joint Forest Management (JFM) needs

to be restructured to suit the socio-economic

and geo-political conditions of the State for

making it more meaningful.

● Lack of access to some highland pastures dueto heavy military presence and security

concerns has constrained development oflivestock, impacting traditional livelihoods andincreasing dependency on costly imports. Anew pasture management policy, guided by thecurrent socio-economic needs and geo-politicalscenario is long overdue.

● The State Pollution Control Board (SPCB) needsto be armed with greater powers to ensureacross-the-board environmental compliances inboth civilian and non-civilian domains.

Villagers near Arizal in Pirpanjal mountain range sharing their experiences with climate change in the course of this study.

Irfa

n H

amd

ani,

Act

ionA

id

27


1. Kashmir has been historically and internationally referredto the State of undivided Jammu & Kashmir, now dividedbetween India and Pakistan. In this report Kashmir refersto the whole State of Jammu & Kashmir.

2. Suicides in Rural Kashmir: An analysis, ActionAidInternational (India), 2007.

3. Mohammad Dilawar Mir, Minister for Tourism andHorticulture, “J&K imports mutton, milk and poultry worthRs16000 Cr annually”, http://www.newkerala.com/news,UNI, 18 June, 2007.

4. A K Jaswal, G S Prakasha Rao, Indian MeteoroligicalDepartment Pune, The Himalayan Mail Indian Express,June 3, 2007.

5. Fayaz Wani, ‘Fluctuating temperature may reduceagriculture yield’, , , , , Srinagar, June 3, The Kashmir Times.

6. S A R Shah, ‘Kashmir losing fast its most preciousnatural resource’, Department of Environment & RemoteSensing J&K State, The Kashmir Times, 16 Jun 2007.

7. Abdul Salam Wani, 72, one of the oldest students ofTyndale Biscoe School, in an interview with ArjimandHussain Talib (ActionAid), who has travelled far and widein Kashmir countryside since his childhood, 28 May,2007.

8. Muhammad Hussain, 64, a farmer who grows walnutsand pears on the mountain slopes at his village in themountains of Runda close to Line of Control in Uri in aninterview with Arjimand Hussain Talib (ActionAid),16 June, 2007.

9 Himalayan concerns, R Ramachandran, Frontline,Volume 24 – Issue 04: Feb. 24–Mar. 09, 2007.

10. Himalayan concerns, R Ramachandran, Frontline,Volume 24 – Issue 04: Feb. 24–Mar. 09, 2007.



13. Himalayan concerns, R Ramachandran, Frontline,Volume 24 – Issue 04: Feb. 24–Mar. 09, 2007.

14. Ibid.

15. Ibid.

16. ‘Global Warming Imperils Himalayan Glaciers, ExpertsSay’, April 24, 2007, Chris Buckley, Reuters.

17. ‘Global Warming and Melting Glaciers In South Asia:Environmental, Economic, and Political Implications’,SARID, September 17, 2004, Jasmin Mehovic andJanaki Blum.


19. Fayaz Wani, ‘Fluctuating temperature may reduceagriculture yield’, , , , , Srinagar, June 3, The Kashmir Times.

20. Arjimand Hussain Talib, Water Dimension of KashmirProblem, Salzburg Global Seminar, Austria, 2001.

21. Dr Priyadarshini, Principal Investigator, Department ofScience and Technology Project (Government of India) –‘Arsenic in Coals and its Effects on Environment in India’– Department of Geology, Ranchi University.

22. Ibid.

ENDNOTES

28

ActionAid is an international anti-poverty agencyworking in over 40 countries, taking sides withpoor people to end poverty and injustice together.

ActionAid IndiaCountry OfficeC-88, South Extn IINew Delhi – 110049. IndiaPhone: +91-11-41640571–76Fax: +91-11-41641891www.actionaidindia.org

Srinagar OfficeNew Airport Road, Opposite ITIPirbagh, Srinagar, Kashmir.Phone: +91-194-2431996Mobile: 9906679346e-mail: [email protected]

Designed & Published by

139, Richmond RoadBangalore – 560 025. IndiaKarnataka, IndiaPhone: +91-80-25580346, 25321747Mobile: 9448371732e-mail: [email protected]: www.booksforchange.net

The cover photo shows melting glaciers on 29 April 2007at Sadhna Pass in north Kashmir situated at an altitude of10,000 feet.

Cover Photo: Arjimand Hussain Talib, ActionAid

on the brink - awaaze kashmirawaazekashmir.in/live/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/31_1990362411...on the...

Documents