on access bandwidths per o. andersson. © ericsson ab 2004 2 outline moore’s law and residential...

On access bandwidths

Per O. Andersson

© Ericsson AB 2004 2

Outline

Moore’s law and residential services Symmetry Operational expenses Bandwidth Television Flexibility New services Future requirements


Digital Camera/Mobile

HDTV(1080i)B-DVD

…in any Package…

WXGA

HDTV(720p)

PAL-TV, DV, DVD

NTSC

VHSCD


…from the Home Operator…

…to operate the home network

…to act as 24/7/365 all-line helpdesk

…to be legal part for the relevant SLAs

…to specify, negotiate and deliver home network services to the end-users (family)

…to be responsible for multiple carrier agreements (broadband, mobile, fixed…)

…to take end-to-end responsibility for reliable service delivery to the end-user

…to track and follow the development of the relevant technologies (broadband, HDTV, convergence, VoIP, mobile, 3G, HSDPA, WiMax, fixed wireless, WiFi…


Will it continue…?- Does Moore hold up?

2000 2005 2010

x1

x10

x100

Internet expansion Image services?

x1000

x10 000

2015 2020

10 Gb155 Mb56 kb

100 Gb1+ Gb560 kb

1 Tb10 Gb6 Mb

10 Tb100 Gb60 Mb

100 Tb1 Tb

600 Mb

Practical fibre limit - 20-30 Tbit/s, fibre @ 1 bit/Hz

(water-peak)

1st Generation“Bubble-era systems” @ 32-40 x 10 Gb/s, channels running out of capacity. Next generation roll-out starts.

2nd GenerationTriple-play HDTV and corresponding services common. Broadband saturated in dense areas, >30% also outside major cities.

Note that Metro can be supplied by 10Gb SFP’s and simple 10ch CWDM until 2015…


Capex/Opex - Two approaches

Type A for high flexibility & optimised OpEx– Large Customer base with churn (incumbent)

Type B for lowest CapEx but higher OpEx– Build revenue streams with lower initial risk (competitive)

Capex/Opex

Type A

Type B

Future changes?


(A)symmetric Network Value

Symmetry very valuable:

– Any P2P network

– Most human communication

Symmetry irrelevant:

– Centralized content distribution

“Full disk” “Full disk”

Symmetric Network Asymmetric Network

Peering pointClass “B” Netizen

Cannot contribute to community

Class “A” NetizenCan serve the community

Note that many peer2peer applications now go beyond “filesharing” to become a professional way of distributing content and programs, telephony, grid computing etc…


ADSL2 Reach & Performance Overview

1 Km 2 Km 3 Km 4 Km 5 Km 6 KmLength, Km

8

24

ADSL

ADSL2+

VDSL

52

Data Rate, Mbps

ADSL2

12NTT measurement“centre of gravity”

Shannon’s information theorem…(S/N-limited, here: crosstalk)

“Pretty deep fibre”…


Distance(km)Loss(dB)

0.5 1 2 3 4 5 6 8

Legend : FLET’S ADSL 12M : FLET’S ADSL 8M : FLET’S ADSL 1.5M

Do

wn

stre

am B

it r

a te

Measured Distance and Speed for ADSL

From ECOC’04 Y. Maeda, NTT

3 km @ 2 Mbit/s

1 km @ 10 Mbit/s

Real upgrade path

Performance spread


“But you code all this to x Mb/s with MPEG-y…”

10 x 12 bits resolution– Total 120 pixels

21 bits of information

Information matched to display resolutio

E.g.5 Mb/s MPEG-2 on standard TV


...yes, but most of that means lower quality...



Information less than display resolution - for example due to compression

E.g.5 Mb/s MPEG-2 on HDTV


”High Definition” simply has more information!



Information matched to display resolution

E.g. 20 Mb/s MPEG-2 on HDTV


So what’s your Bandwidth...?

Display

Algorithm

Technology

Scene

Quality (PQR)

VHS DV HD1 HD2 D-Cinema

RAW Lossless MP-1 MP-2 MP-4

SportsMixedFace

3510

LeadingMediumSimple

1:100

1:200

1:4

1:?

Hi BWLo BW

Q-SIF


The bandwidth cube

Better Codec• MPEG-2 to H.264 (x 0.5)

Less cost & time• No quality review• Less coding (realtime!)• Processor, memory cost (x 2 …or 3…)

Image size• SDTV to HiDef (x 4)

Starting point• Hi performance

MPEG-2 SDTV(2 Mbit/s)

2

8

16 8

2

1

4

4


The price of bandwidth

Expensive bandwidth is not an axiom…

Price/bit

Cost/bit

Then Now Future

Price pressure on LL, flat-rate tariffs, “free” internet etc…(voice BW increments)

Historic voice & LL-pricing(voice BW increments)

Future “video-pricing”(video BW increments)

Present Nextgen equipment


The Next x10 – DTV-based…?

DTV is not the same old thing as TV… DTV requires > 95% penetration DTV requires “telecom quality” – Five 9’s - 99.999% or ~5 min/yr DTV requires 2-4 simultaneous channels/family, incl. HDTV Video can get away with 2 Mb/s - DTV needs 20-50 Mb/s…

Which “Triple Play”?– A) 1ch VoD + VoIP + BE Internet (BE, 5 Mbs)– B) 3-4ch (HD)TV + IP Telephony + Future Internet (QoS, 20-30

Mbs)

Three delivery methods:– Air– Cu– Fibre

Bandwidth, QoS


Competitive Landscape - Delivery

0,1 Mb/s

1 Mb/s

10 Mb/s

100 Mb/s

Modem

512k DSL

5M DSL

20M xDSL++

DTB

Cable

Fibre

Cu“Truckroll

s”

Modem STB, TV, PC…Servers, Transport Modem

Delivery?


Mistakes in History- Lee de Forest 1926

”Although Television may be theoretically and technically possible,

I consider it to be a financial and commercial impossibility”

(Radio pioneer, inventor of the

triode)


Help! I’m not used to this...!

Video services are “culturally uncharted territory”

Public acceptance may treat all services alike

Result has massive impact on telecom network


ECOC 2004 demoThe small roomThe large room

Testing the “Window to the world”

Small room “Telepresence” to KTH via Ericsson MINI-LINK

A “2K” projector – a.k.a. 1080 HDTV

A Community Hub model at ECOC 2004


The “Community Hub”

”Broadband for all”• 2nd wave/emerging markets

”Window to the world””Full-presence” video – eye, size, distance

• eye-commerce• e-government

• e-healthcare

”Centre Stage”• e-Cinema & event

• Personalized events• Politics & religion, sports

• Connection to mobile & 3G


2D and 3D Holography

2D Holography 2D images by diffraction from

dynamic hologram Essentially standard video-rates Requires Hi-Def SLM Requires RGB-lasers/LD(?) Prototypes today

Gives pocket HiDef-projectors

3D Holography Artificial real-time calculation and

generation of a true 3D hologram Requires x100 in processing power Requires ca 1um pitch SLM (today 10um) Requires RGB-lasers LD(?) 10 years with Moore?

Gives dynamic 3D imaging


Summary - bandwidths

Home networking - will be complex

Hi-Def & triple-play emerging

Multi-service, multi-vendor, multi-technology…

Your bandwidth may vary…

Symmetry will be valuable

Low Opex will be necessary

100 Mb/s Ethernet natural choice


Challenges for 21st Century Society

Business– Original, self-sustained, creation of value and employment is necessary to create

prosperity and security. Culture

– Unhindered access to local and world culture is necessary to be considered an attractive region to work and live in.

Society– High-quality societal services are necessary for a region to be able to care for its

inhabitants.

With

Availability– To all people in all parts of a region - or of the world.

Sustainability– Economic, Social and Environmental


Peak oil, est. 2008

Demandca 1,5% /yr

Supply

Meanwhile – in the Middle East…

Demand driven Supply driven

“Regular Oil & Gas”• Total “Oil in Place” ca 2,4Tb (arrels)• Daily use ca 80 Mb (arrels)• Yearly use ca 30 Gb (arrels)


Peak Oil meets Fibre Optics…

Assume PO ca 2010– Mental change– Transport prices increasing– Political and market uncertainties– Government and market adjustments & steering– Financing redirected towards energy (and transport) use

Terabit Society ca 2010– Bubble-era systems 32- 40ch @ 10 Gb/s filled up and to be replaced– Multi-Mb @ home, 10G @ metro, Terabit in transport– Analogue TV and photo being replaced – all is going digital– Emerging home networking

Energy consumption focus (flat screens, fibre…) “Second Opto-bubble”? – tempered by competition for funding…

Can “Moore” be maintained in the new paradigm?


Global Market Need- Long term to 2050 Long term growth markets – “important problems”

– Natural resource utilisation; oil, gas, water, forest, agriculture…– Sustainable manufacturing and recycling– Energy utilisation and distribution– Transport & Communication - main replacement for liquid fuels…– Medicine and care – demographic changes…

Success is required to obtain/maintain prosperity and security

Very large R&D resources will be directed towards energy “realignment”

Telecommunications will be truly key (physical transport replacement)

on access bandwidths per o. andersson. © ericsson ab 2004 2 outline moore’s law and residential...

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