oe energy market snapshot€¦ · source: derived from ice and nymex data. *january and february...

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

OE ENERGYMARKET SNAPSHOT

National – Data Through September 2015

Office of EnforcementFederal Energy Regulatory Commission

October 2015


● 2015-16 Energy Market Winter Assessment● National Slides● Infrastructure Report

2

Agenda


2015-2016 Energy Market Winter Assessment

3

Market Overview

Stable signals• Low NG & electric

prices • Abundant NG

production & storage• Moderate weather in

Midwest, Northwest & Northeast

• Robust fuel stockpiles—heating & generation

Challenges• Low NG and oil rig

counts• Cold weather in South• Potential demand

increases from NG industrial & LNG exports

• New England price volatility

Source: Derived from ICE and Nymex data.

*January and February 2016

^January and February 2015

*SP-15 2016

*Power Note: Prices in $/MWh. Peak financial swap prices.

*Gas Note: Prices in $/MMBtu. Regional futures natural gas prices are the sum of the Henry Hub futures contract price plus the regional basis futures.

Power

Gas

Location 2015^ 2016* ∆Algonquin (New England) $21.45 $9.69 ‐55%

Transco Zone 6 non‐NY (Mid‐Atlantic) $9.09 $6.21 ‐32%

Transco Zone 6 NY (New York City) 12.82 $9.29 ‐28%Dominion South (Marcellus) $2.51 $1.97 ‐21%Southern California Border $4.30 $2.85 ‐34%

Henry Hub $4.08 $2.77 ‐32%

Massachussets Hub $183.88 $89.28 ‐51% PJM Western Hub $72.60 $50.56 ‐30%Northwest (Mid‐C) $37.73 $24.88 ‐34%

Southern California (SP‐15) $46.13 $33.76 ‐27%

Futures Prices Decline

Source: NOAA National Weather Service

Winter Temps Warmer in North & Cooler in South

Source: EIA data & Staff analysis.

Natural Gas Storage Poised To Set a Record Entering

Winter

0

1

2

3

4

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Storage Inventories (Tcf)

5 Year Inventory Range

Year to Date InventoryHigh Inventory Scenario

Source: EIA data & Staff analysis.

Winter NG Demand Projections Lower than Previous Winters

020406080

100120

Sep‐13

Jan‐14

May‐14

Sep‐14

Jan‐15

May‐15

Sep‐15

Jan‐16

U.S. N

atural Gas

Dem

and by

Sector

(Bcfd)

ResidentialCommercialElectric PowerIndustrialVehicle

Projected

Natural Gas Production Sets Record

Source: Bentek Energy.

01020304050607080

Jan‐10

Aug‐10

Mar‐11

Oct‐11

May‐12

Dec‐12

Jul‐1

3

Feb‐14

Sep‐14

Apr‐15

U.S. N

atural Gas

Prod

uctio

n (Bcfd)

Marcellus

Utica

Eagle Ford

Williston

Permian

Niobrara

Source: Staff analysis.

Pipeline Projects Connect New Production to MarketsNatural Gas pipeline capacity additions in 2014 & 2015 (Bcfd)

2.0 1.6

Winter Natural Gas Prices Converge in Northeast

Source: Staff analysis.

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Compo

site Pric

e ($/M

MBtu)*

Northeast Market…

Projected

*Regional composites

are averages of January

and February prices.

RTO/ISO Winter Preparations

Gas electric coordination Seasonal modeling assessments Adequate reserve margins with load pockets Winterization testing Situational awareness

CAISO Winter Ramp

Source: Derived from CAISO data via Ventyx

ISO-NE Relies on Winter Fuel Diversity

Source: Derived from Ventyx data

SPP Expanded Membership with Integrated Systems

NV Energy may join EIM NYISO increased reserve requirements

and scarcity prices SPP-MISO improve interregional

coordinaton

Power Market Developments


National Slides

16

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight17

NOAA Nov 2015 Through Jan 2016 Outlook


2181

Pittsburgh

Boston

Calgary

City Location

ChicagoNYC

OklahomaCity

DallasLosAngeles

Sacramento Denver

Portland

Houston New Orleans Miami

Vancouver

This Year

Last Year

5 Year Average

Cumulative HDDs by CityJuly– September

Source: Bloomberg Weather (daily data summed quarterly)

Atlanta

Updated

18

Oct‐2015

323162

01013

001

001

000

54333

001

000

000

228258265

393043

9491127

7059123

0011

009

000


2181

Pittsburgh

Boston

Calgary

City Location

ChicagoNYC

OklahomaCity

DallasLosAngeles

Sacramento Denver

Portland

Houston New Orleans Miami

Vancouver

This Year

Last Year

5 Year Average

Cumulative CDDs by CityJuly– September

Source: Bloomberg Weather (daily data summed quarterly)

Atlanta

Updated

19

Oct‐2015

592 765 721

864 997 969

1,697 1,666 1,753

525 595 682

1,676 1,756 1,840

788 768 898

1,359 1,423 1,654

1,769 2,003 2,093

1,727 1,830 1,879

68 32 34

574 797 765

63 35 50

491 417 343

953 901 807

755 621 598

1,160 1,134 1,338

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight20Spot Power Prices

Average Monthly ($/MWh)


2181

ColumbiaTCO

AlgonquinCitygate

AECO

Pricing PointBOLD – This YearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

TranscoZ6-NY

NGPLTex-Okla

El PasoPermian

SoCal Border

PG&ECitygate

CIG

HSCHenry Hub

FGT-Z3

Spot Natural Gas Prices Average ($/MMBtu)

July– September

Source: ICE Updated

21

$2.14‐36%$2.28

‐17%

$2.79‐33%

$2.63‐31%

$2.76‐33%

$2.78‐33%

$2.70‐34%$2.62

‐34%

$2.74‐34%

$2.22‐43%

$2.56‐35%

$3.15‐33%

$2.79‐35%

Oct‐2015


2181

ColumbiaTCO

AlgonquinCitygate

Pricing PointBOLD – This yearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

TranscoZ6-NY

NGPLTex-Okla

El PasoPermian

SoCal Border

PG&ECitygate

CIG

HSCHenry Hub

FGT-Z3

Spot Average Natural Gas Trading Volumes (MMBtus)

July– September

Source: ICE Updated

22

89,234 49%

81,007 ‐4%

120,924 11%

27,843 138%

208,877 33%

419,667 103%

338,386 9%

240,476 ‐7%

19,497 ‐77%

40,103 13%

580,029 14%

317,611 ‐31%

Oct‐2015


U.S. NG Supply and Demand Year to Date – Sep 2015 vs. Sep 2015

National Natural Gas Market Overview: U.S. Supply and Consumption

Note: Balance includes all amounts not attributable to other categories.Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

2163Updated: Oct 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2014 2015

Aver

age

Dai

ly V

olum

e (B

cfd)

US Natural Gas Supply

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2014 2015

Aver

age

Dai

ly V

olum

e (B

cfd)

US Natural Gas DemandTotal Change in Demand

Power Generation

Net Dry GasProduction

Net PipelineImports

5.6%

6.0%

8.2%5.6%

3.4%

17.0%

LNG Imports

Industrial

Total Change in Supply 4.8%

-1.9%Residential/ Commercial

23


National Natural Gas Market Overview: Canadian Imports

Regional Imports from Canada

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data Updated: Oct 2015

(2)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12B

cfd

Northwest Net ImportsMidwest Net ImportsNortheast Net Imports

24


Total U.S. Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Total US Gas Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data, derived from interstate pipeline flow and modeled data.20009Updated: Oct 2015

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Bcf

d

2009-2014 Range 2015

25


U.S. Natural Gas Consumption for Power Generation

National Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data20024Updated: Oct 2015

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

MM

cfd

2010-14 Range

2015

26


EIA National Storage Inventories by Region

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

Updated

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

U.S

Stor

age

Leve

ls (B

cf)

East Storage LevelWest Storage LevelProduction Area Storage Level5 Year Average

27

Oct‐2015


EIA National Storage Inventories



Notes:

Updated

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500


Stor

age (

Bcf)

5 Year Range 2014-2015 2015-2016

Oct‐2015

28


EIA Regional Storage Inventories



Notes:

Updated Oct‐2015

29

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500EAST

0

100

200

300

400

500

600 WEST

0

500

1,000

1,500


5 Year Range 2014‐2015 2015‐2016

PRODUCING


Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production – Lower 48 States

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production

Note: Prior to July 2010, chart was derived from a combination of EIA and Bentek Energy dataSource: Derived from Bentek Energy data

20021Updated: Oct 2015

2

4

6

8

10

12

Bcf

d

Dry Production

30


Rigs by Type

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Type

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data

Notes:

Updated

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800Oc

t‐11

Jan‐12

Apr‐1

2

Jul‐1

2

Oct‐1

2

Jan‐13

Apr‐1

3

Jul‐1

3

Oct‐1

3

Jan‐14

Apr‐1

4

Jul‐1

4

Oct‐1

4

Jan‐15

Apr‐1

5

Jul‐1

5

Oct‐1

5

Baker H

ughe

s Rig Co

unt (Rigs)

Oil Rigs Gas Rigs

31

Oct‐2015


Gas vs Coal

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count


Notes:

Updated

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7Oc

t‐13

Dec‐1

3

Feb‐14

Apr‐1

4

Jun‐14

Aug‐14

Oct‐1

4

Dec‐1

4

Feb‐15

Apr‐1

5

Jun‐15

Aug‐15

Oct‐1

5

Conv

erted O

il Price ($/M

MBtu)

Gas a

nd Co

nverted C

oal P

rice ($/M

MBtu)

Nymex Henry HubCentral App CoalWTI Crude Oil

Oct‐2015

32


Daily Gas Sendout from Existing U.S. LNG Facilities

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily Gas Sendout

Notes: Everett data includes flows onto the AGT and TGP interstate lines, plus estimates of flows to the Mystic 7 power plant, Keyspan Boston Gas, and LNG trucked out of the terminal. Excludes flows to the Freeport LNG which flows via intrastate pipelines and flows to the Mystic 8 and 9 power plants.

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data3007Updated: Oct 2015

33

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000D

aily

LN

G S

endo

ut (M

Mcf

d)Sabine PassLake CharlesGolden PassFreeportNortheast GatewayExcelerateCameronElba IslandCove PointEverett (Grossed)

-1,0000

1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000 Monthly Average


Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtuNote: Includes information and Data supplied by IHS Global Inc. and its affiliates (“IHS”); Copyright (publication year) all rights reserved.Landed prices are the monthly average of weekly trades from the prior month.

World LNG Estimated October 2015 Landed Prices

Updated Oct 2015

National Natural Gas Market Overview: World LNG Landed Prices

Cove Point$4.50

India$11.55

UK$8.75

Spain$9.05

Belgium$8.84

Japan$12.40

Korea$12.40

Lake Charles$3.96Altamira

$4.60

Cove Point$4.40

India$11.55

UK$8.75

Spain$9.15

Belgium$8.99

Japan$13.10

Korea$13.10


$4.57

Cove Point$4.50

India$11.55

UK$8.75

Spain$9.05

Belgium$8.84

Japan$12.40

Korea$12.40


$4.60

Cove Point

India

UK

Spain

Belgium

Japan

Korea

Lake Charles

Altamira

Rio de Janeiro

Bahia Blanca

Canaport

China

34

7.55$

7.62$

6.55$

3.39$ 2.25$

7.20$ 7.10$

7.25$ 6.41$

7.59$

7.25$

6.30$

2.41$


Historical and Future World Gas Prices

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Competitive Price Hubs


Notes:

Updated Oct‐2015

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25Oc

t‐13

Dec‐13

Feb‐14

Apr‐1

4Jun‐14

Aug‐14

Oct‐1

4De

c‐14

Feb‐15

Apr‐1

5Jun‐15

Aug‐15

Oct‐1

5De

c‐15

Feb‐16

Apr‐1

6Jun‐16

Aug‐16

Oct‐1

6

$/MMBtu

Henry Hub TZ6 NYAlgonquin Citygates UKNBPJapanese LNG Spot Price Futures Prices

35


National Natural Gas Market Overview: WTI vs Brent Oil Price

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Updated

WTI vs Brent Crude Oil Price

Oct‐2015

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Oil Pric

es ($/Barrel)

WtI Oil Price Brent Crude Oil Price

36


National Natural Gas Market Overview: Nymex Futures Curve

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Updated

Nymex Futures Curves

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

Nov‐1

5

Jan‐16

Mar‐16

May‐16

Jul‐16

Sep‐16

Nov‐1

6

Jan‐17

Mar‐17

May‐17

Jul‐17

Sep‐17

Nov‐1

7

Jan‐18

Mar‐18

May‐18

Nymex Fu

tures C

urves ($/MMBtu)

10/13/2014 4/14/20159/14/2015 10/15/2015

Oct‐2015

37


Infrastructure Report

38


Natural Gas Activities in September 2015

Status No. of Projects

Storage Capacity

(Bcf) Deliverability

(MMcf/d) Capacity (MMcf/d)

Miles of Pipeline

Compression (HP)

Pipeline

Placed in Service 0 0.0 0.0 0

Certificated 2 830.0 34.1 12,260

Proposed 10 10,230.3 1,244.3 304,651

Storage

Placed in Service 2 8.0 0.0 4,800

Certificated 0 0.0 0.0 0

Proposed 1 0.0 15.0 0

LNG (Import & Export)

Placed in Service 0 0 0 0

Certificated (Import/Export) 0 0 0 0

Proposed (Export) 2 11.6 2,825 0

Natural Gas Highlights


September 2015 January – September 2015

Cumulative January – September 2014

Cumulative

Primary Fuel Type No. of Units

Installed Capacity (MW)

No. of Units


No. of Units


Coal 0 0 1 3 1 30Natural Gas 2 346 34 2,884 51 5,808Nuclear 0 0 0 0 10 266 Oil 0 0 6 9 18 94 Water 0 0 18 27 13 210Wind 3 448 26 2,966 37 2,030Biomass 2 4 16 205 58 104Geothermal Steam 0 0 1 45 7 36 Solar 6 20 142 1,137 258 1,928Waste Heat 0 0 0 0 2 68 Other 0 0 6 0 8 23Total 13 817 250 7,276 463 10,597

New Generation In-Service (New Build and Expansion)

Electric Generation Highlights


Transmission Projects Completed Proposed Transmission Projects In-Service by September 2017

Voltage (kV)

September 2015

September 2014

January – September 2015 Cumulative

January – December 2014 Cumulative

High Probability of Completion All

Line Length (miles)

≤230 0.0 0.0 153.4 1,218.5 2,947.3 5,636.0

345 82.0 202.0 808.7 1,659.8 2,416.8 4,806.6

500 0.0 0.0 256.0 70.0 950.9 3,292.9 Total U.S. 82.0 202.0 1,218.1 2,948.3 6,315.0 13,735.5

Transmission Projects with a High Probability of being completed by September 2017 New Transmission Projects by Voltage

Electric Transmission Highlights


Office of Energy Projects Energy Infrastructure Updatehttp://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports.asp

(see “Energy Infrastructure” tab)

Infrastructure Report

42

oe energy market snapshot€¦ · source: derived from ice and nymex data. *january and february...

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