Ocean Acidification of the Greater Caribbean Region/GOM

John W. Morse1, Dwight Gledhill2, Rik Wanninkhof3, C. Mark Eakin4, Nina Keul1, Denis Pierrot31Texas A&M 2RSMAS, U, Miami3NOAA/AOML4NOAA/NESDIS Coral Reef Watch

Partners:

Ocean AcidificationOcean Acidification

2

≈ ≈ 48% of anthropogenic 48% of anthropogenic COCO2 2 taken up by the taken up by the

oceanocean

CO2

Sabine et al. Science (2004)

Derived surface (50 m) values obtained using on-line data available at http://hahana.soest.hawaii.edu/hot/hot-dogs/ and solved using the Lewis E. and Wallace D.W.R. (1998) Basic program for CO2 system in seawater. ORNL/CDIAC-105, Oak Ridge National Lab

NOAA CMDL CCGG CO2 data at Mauna Loa, HI

Ocean AcidificationOcean Acidification

3

Plant/Animal/MineralPlant/Animal/Mineral

Reef CommunitySlide after of Joan Kleypas, NCAR

Ca2 CO32 CaCO3

Saturation State

1precipitation1equilibrium1dissolution

*

,

23

2

phasespphase K

COCa

OptimalOptimal

CriticalCritical

- Langdon & Atkinson (2005)- Langdon & Atkinson (2005)

Guinotte, J. M., R. W. Buddemeier, J.A. Kleypas (2003)

adequateadequate

MarginalMarginal

Saturation State1precipitation1equilibrium1dissolution

Saturation state (Ω) describes the degree to which seawater is saturated with respect to carbonate mineral phases

Changing Changing and calcificationand calcification

after Feely et al (in press) with Modeled Saturation Levels from Orr et al (2005)

Predictions of Ocean Acidification

0 1 2 3 4 5

Image courtesy of Dan Pisut (NOAA VisLab)

0 1 2 3 4 5

Image courtesy of Dan Pisut (NOAA VisLab)

after Feely et al (in press) with Modeled Saturation Levels from Orr et al (2005)

Predictions of Ocean Acidification

Controls on Controls on Mineral Saturation StateMineral Saturation State

*,

23

2

phasespphase K

COCa

SYSCOTSf 2,,

2Ca *, phasespK

23CO

Sf TSf ,

2Ca

S TS ,

*, phasespK

swpCO ,2

23CO

TA

23CO

Deriving Deriving in Seawaterin Seawater

Some Considerations….

www.wbgu.de

Temperature & SalinityTemperature & Salinity

NOAA AVHRR+AMSR-E SST OI.2 Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (Atlantic)

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov http://nomad5.ncep.noaa.gov/DOC/RTOFS.html

Total Alkalinity ModelTotal Alkalinity ModelLee, K., L. T. Tong, et al. (2006). "Global relationships of total alkalinity with salinity and temperature in surface waters of the world’s oceans." Geophysical Research Letters 33.

Does Lee et al. (2006) work for the Greater Caribbean?

AT = a + b(SSS - 35) + c(SSS - 35)2 + d(SST - 20) + e(SST - 20)2 1

Global Ocean Data Analysis

pCOpCO2,sw2,sw Model Model BKeAypCO /

020

NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory Global Carbon Group Explorer of the Sea’s Program • Underway pCO2,sw

• Thermosalinograph (SST, SSS)• Sea level barometric pressure (SLP)

* CO2 gas solubility (K0) calculated according to Weiss, 1974

r2 = 0.85, RMSD = 7.2 µatm, n=314395

Model ProcessingModel Processing

GCR OA Product: Offers monthly synthesis of satellite and modeled environmental datasets to provide a synoptic estimate of sea surface carbonate chemistry in the Greater Caribbean Region. This tool compliments on-going geochemical surveys and monitoring efforts in the region by providing estimates of changing ocean chemistry on a broader spatial and temporal scale than shipboard observations alone can permit.

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/current/experimental_products.html

• The annual mean arg is declining at a rate of -0.010 ± 0.001 arg yr-1

•The monthly mean arg varies seasonally by approximately 0.3 arg

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/current/experimental_products.html

Model Bias for Co-Located Ship Data

Validated derived fields against geochemical cruise datasets from 1997 through 2006.

Major Caveat: Very limited validation data available for the Caribbean Sea and NGOM

Gledhill et al., JGR 2008

1) Establish comprehensive dual carbonate parameter regional survey with emphasis on current prominent omissions (e.g. CS, NGOM).

2) Improve parameterize the Lee et al. (2006) TA-SSS relationships specific to the GCR/NGOM.

3) Evaluate performance of current empirical K0-based pCO2,sw model and incorporate biological (OC), gas-exchange (winds), ancillary (e.g. upwelling) effects.

4) Provide an enhanced characterization of seasonal and decadal distribution and changes in aragonite saturation state ( ).

NASA ROSES-2007 Element A.3: Carbon Cycle ScienceNASA ROSES-2007 Element A.3: Carbon Cycle Science ‘Ocean Acidification of the Greater Caribbean Region’ ‘Ocean Acidification of the Greater Caribbean Region’ Project ObjectivesProject Objectives

20081 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

NOAA Explorer of the Seas (EX0801)    NOAA Gordon Gunther (SPS)  TAMU Pelican (MCH)  AOML Explorer of the Seas (EX0824)  AOML Explorer of the Seas (EX0839)  

Year 1 acquisition of in-situ Year 1 acquisition of in-situ carbonate chemistrycarbonate chemistry

Caribbean Track (May, 2009)◦ Methanol Holdings (Trinidad)

Limited (MHTL) methanol tanker

◦ Underway LI-COR 6241 pCO2,sw◦ Autonomous TA sampler

Las Cuevas

Model-ship comparisonsModel-ship comparisonsPreliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings

While the distribution of aragonite saturation state is well captured in the Western Tropical Atlantic and Lesser Antilles waters, it significantly underestimates values for much of the NGOM region.

Key Assumption: TA - SSSKey Assumption: TA - SSS

A key assumption of the current model is that the Lee at al. (2005) TA-SSS relationship applies throughout the region.

This is False!

Aqua MODIS ID of water typeAqua MODIS ID of water type

These differing water types can be readily distinguished by making use of L3 Aqua MODIS products currently available.

ACDM, Aqua MODISInterpolated from 8day; 9km, NASA MEaSUREs Ocean Color Product Evalution ProjectGarver-Siegel-Maritorena (GSM) modelMaritorena, Siegel, & Peterson (2002)

N = 44 33 27

Type 1: <0.01 m-1

Type 2: 0.01 < 0.04 m-1

Type 3: >0.04 m-1

Aqua MODIS ID of water typeAqua MODIS ID of water typeChlorophyll, Aqua MODISInterpolated from 8day; 9km, NASA MEaSUREs Ocean Color Product Evalution ProjectGarver-Siegel-Maritorena (GSM) modelMaritorena, Siegel, & Peterson (2002)

N = 44 33 27

These differing water types can be readily distinguished by making use of L3 Aqua MODIS products currently available.

Type 1: <0.07 mg m-3

Type 2: 0.07 < 1.5 mg m-3

Type 3: >1.5 mg m-3

Type-specific TA - SSSType-specific TA - SSS

When we inform the model using Aqua MODIS GSMacdm to distinguish the proper water type…

Type-specific TA - SSSType-specific TA - SSS

We achieve considerably better agreement in type 2 waters.

SummarySummary• Efforts have begun to couple satellite & in situ observations to characterize

the regional distribution and the secular changes in aragonite saturation state in the GCR/NGOM.

• Using this approach we can provide an important supplement to oceanic time-series stations and regular geochemical surveys in tracking ocean acidification in oceanic surface waters.

• The combined effects of thermodynamics and variations in pCO2,sw and AT produce a dynamic and complex distribution in arg spatially and temporally across the GCR.

• The approach characterizes well the arg distributions in the western tropical Atlantic and Lesser Antilles Region.

• The Mississippi River delivers considerable amounts of alkalinity to the NGOM that precludes the application of Lee et al., (2006) (sub)tropical TA-SSS relation.

• Aqua MODIS GSMacdm can be applied to readily distinguish appropriate application of specific TA-SSS relationships

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Sea Surface TemperatureSea Surface Salinity

Sea Level Pressure (SLP)Atmospheric CO2 mole fraction

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

RTOFS (Atlantic) SSSRTOFS (Atlantic) SSSNOAA NODC World Ocean Atlas SSSNOAA NCDC OI AVHRR + AMSR-E OI.2

NOAA NCEP Sea Level Pressure (SLP)Statistical Forecast XCO2(air)NOAA ESRL GLOBALVIEW-CO2

Data availability and latencyData availability and latency

NRTRevised

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Sea Surface TemperatureSea Surface Salinity

Sea Level Pressure (SLP)Atmospheric CO2 mole fraction

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

NOAA NODC World Ocean Atlas SSSNOAA NCDC OI AVHRR OI.2 NOAA NCDC OI AVHRR + AMSR-E OI.2

NOAA NCEP Sea Level Pressure (SLP)NOAA ESRL GLOBALVIEW-CO2

SSTSSSSea Level PressureAtmospheric CO2

SSTSSSSea Level PressureAtmospheric CO2

Statistical Forecast XCOStatistical Forecast XCO2,air2,air

Near-Real-Time Model relies on statistical forecast model of atmospheric CO2

mole fraction

QC marine boundary layer from GLOBALVIEW requires ~1 year