obsolescence management in long term projects · electrical and electronic equipment directive e.g....

Obsolescence Management in Long Term Projects

OMAINTEC 2016

Stuart Kelly

Obsolescence Management | Integrated Logistic Support | Training


Introductions

Stuart Kelly

– Ex Head of Obsolescence Management Policy, UK MOD • Ensuring proactive OM implemented as part of the Defence acquisition

process • Advice & Guidance to >200 projects

– Currently Managing Director of Through Life Support Limited

• Providing Advice & Guidance, Tools and Training to Improve OM Capability

– President International Institute of Obsolescence Management

– Committee member looking after IEC62402:20007

– Visiting Fellow at Cranfield university


Through Life Support Ltd.

• We provide all the support required to set up, deliver and implement a proactive Obsolescence Management framework comprising of:

– Policy

– Plans

– Processes

– Tools

– Contractual guidance

– Comprehensive training programs.


Through Life Support Ltd

Sectors

• Defence

• Oil and Gas

• Nuclear

• Rail

• Financial

• Marine Engineering

• Telecommunications


Stuart Kelly

President International Institute of Obsolescence Management

– For professionals worldwide who are dedicated to furthering their knowledge and understanding of the Obsolescence Management discipline and who wish to network with a wide group of companies from a global membership.

IIOM


What is Obsolescence?


What is Obsolescence?

“The transition from availability from the

original manufacturer to unavailability”

IEC 62402:2007

Obsolete –

“no longer in production by the original manufacturer to the original specification”

New Version IEC 62402


Obsolescence Risk

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Supply of Part

User Requirement

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Supply of Part

User Requirement

In an ideal world…

Reality…

Years

Years

OBSOLESCENCE RISK


Time

Avai

labi

lity

Development & Initial

Production

Period of steady

availability

Item is Obsolescent

Period of Obsolescence

Manufacturer announces

future end of production

date

End of production

Item is Obsolete

Product Life Cycle

Obsolescent

Obsolete

EOL


Life from to

•• Average lifecycles: electronic componentsAverage lifecycles: electronic components– Linear/interfaces 8 years

– Logic families 6 years

– Displays 3 years

– Gate arrays 2 years

– Microprocessors 2 years

– Programmable logic devices 1 year

– Memory families 9 months

–– Overall averageOverall average 3.25 years3.25 years

A B


Source – IHS iSupply (COG Conference)

Obsolescence will not go away…..

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

END OF LIFE NOTICES


DATA PROCESSING 33.3%

WIRED COMMUNICATIONS 6.4%

WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS

23.5%

CONSUMER ELECTRONICS 18.0%

AUTOMOTIVE ELECTRONICS 7.9%

INDUSTRIAL ELECTRONICS 9.9% MILITARY / AEROSPACE

1.0%

Semiconductor revenues by end market

Source – Application Market Forecast Tool (AMFT)


Legislation causes obsolescence

RoHS

Restriction of the Use of Certain Hazardous Substances in

Electrical and Electronic Equipment Directive

e.g. Lead, which is used in soldering on the vast majority of

electronic circuit boards.

REACH

Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemical

Substances.

Restricts the use of substances that are used in parts.

Affects both parts and processes


Electronic

Components Mechanical

Parts Software

Skills

Tools

Test

Equipment

Materials

Processes

What Goes Obsolete?


What is the Impact of Obsolescence?


Impact of Obsolescence

Some examples

• A [nuclear] plant lost 8 days of production due to failure of an obsolete voltage isolation card in the rod control system.

• 22.2% of nuclear plants are experiencing or risking plant outages as a result of equipment obsolescence problems.

• KC-10 programme spent $264,000 to resolve the issue of one obsolete part.

• Merlin Mk1 helicopter: £1.15 billion upgrade primarily to resolve electronics obsolescence issues

• Test Equipment – Redesign costs of £114K to resolve an obsolete Waveform Analyser (cost £3K)

Source: Plant Support Engineering: Obsolescence Management - Nov 2008


The Bottom Line ………..

Obsolescence in long life projects is inevitable.

It is now impacting on equipment even before entering

service

It can happen quickly, could cost lots of unplanned money

to sort and directly affect equipment availability

The only way to mitigate the risk is by managing

obsolescence


What is Obsolescence Management?


Obsolescence Management

• Understand the parts in your project.

• Understand the current, and future obsolescence risk.

• Put steps in place to mitigate known risk.

• Reduce the impact of obsolescence on your:

a) Capability

b) Cost


Resolution Costs

£


Obsolescence Status vs

Obsolescence Risk


Obsolescence Status


Obsolescence Status

• First step in Obsolescence Management is to understand the current obsolescence status of a part: – Is it currently procurable from the original

manufacturer?

• How to achieve Obsolescence Status of a Bill of Material (BOM) – Component Monitoring Tool

– Manual Monitoring


Component Monitoring Tool


Obsolescence Monitoring Tool


Through Life Support Ltd

Obsolescence STATUS Reports


A part is obsolete – so what?


Obsolescence Risk


Through Life Support Ltd.

• Obsolescence Risk Analysis.

Obsolescence Risk Analysis – PROJECT A

High Risk

Medium Risk

Low Risk


High Level Risk Assessment Process


Looking Forward

• Obsolescence Prediction -


Risk Assessment

• A good risk assessment is at the heart of a good Obsolescence Management Plan

• Obsolescence Risk Register is at the heart of a good risk assessment – all decisions must be recorded.

• Decisions must be regularly reviewed.


Obsolescence Management Plan

(OMP)

“description of the strategies for the

identification and mitigation of the effects

of obsolescence through all stages of

the life of a product”

IEC 62402:2007


Other Points to Consider

• When should Obsolescence Management begin?

– At the beginning

• Contracting for Obsolescence Management

– Needs to be robust

– Who Pays?

• Measure OM Performance

– "If you can't measure it, you can't improve it.“ Peter Drucker

– Cost Avoidance

– Return on Investment

• Predict the Cost of Obsolescence


Summary

• Obsolescence Risk is inevitable in Long Life Systems

• Implement proactive Obsolescence Management processes to analysis, understand and mitigate obsolescence risk.

– Extend operational life

– Reduce through life costs

• Measure performance

• Predict Obsolescence Costs

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