observed rainfall variability and changes over uttar
TRANSCRIPT
Met Monograph No.: ESSO/IMD/HS/Rainfall Variability/27(2020)/51
CLIMATE RESEARCH AND SERVICES
INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES
PUNE
Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes over
Uttar Pradesh State
Pulak Guhathakurta, Sudeep Kumar B L, Preetha Menon, Ashwini Kumar Prasad, S T Sable and S C Advani
1
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES
INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
Met Monograph No.: ESSO/IMD/HS/Rainfall Variability/27(2020)/51
Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes Over Uttar Pradesh State
Pulak Guhathakurta, Sudeep kumar B L, Preetha Menon, Ashwini Kumar Prasad, S.T. Sable and S C Advani
INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT PUNE - 411005
2
DOCUMENT AND DATA CONTROL SHEET
1 Document Title Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes Over Uttar Pradesh State
2 Issue No. ESSO/IMD/HS/Rainfall Variability/27(2020)/51 3 Issue Date January 2020 4 Security
Classification Unclassified
5 Control Status Uncontrolled 6 Document Type Scientific Publication 7 No. of Pages 31 8 No. of Figures 42 9 No. of References 3 10 Distribution Unrestricted 11 Language English 12 Authors Pulak Guhathakurta, Sudeep kumar B L, Preetha Menon,
Ashwini Kumar Prasad, S.T. Sable and S C Advani 13 Originating
Division/ Group Climate Research Division/ Climate Application & User Interface Group/ Hydrometeorology
14 Reviewing and Approving Authority
Director General of Meteorology, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
15 End users Central and State Ministries of Water resources, agriculture and civic bodies, Science and Technology, Disaster Management Agencies, Planning Commission of India
16 Abstract India is in the tropical monsoon zone and receives plenty of rainfall as most of the annual rainfall during the monsoon season every year. However, the rainfall is having high temporal and spatial variability and due to the impact of climate changes there are significant changes in the mean rainfall pattern and their variability as well as in the intensity and frequencies of extreme rainfall events. The report brings the result of the analysis based on the rent 30 years of data (1989-2018) on the mean spatial rainfall pattern as well as mean spatial pattern of different rainfall events, trends and variability as well as extreme rainfall events during the monsoon months and annual for the state.
17 Key Words Rainfall trend, variability, extreme events, dry days
3
1. Introduction
The State of Uttar Pradesh which is land locked state, situated between latitudes 23o87’ N
and 30o40' N and longitudes 77.08°' E and 84.63° E,has Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh on
the northwest, Haryana and Delhi on the west, Rajasthan on the southwest, Madhya Pradesh on
the south, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand on southeast, Bihar on the east and Nepal on its northeast.
The Himalayas provide the northern, Yamuna-the Western, the Ganga-the southern and
Gandaki-the eastern boundary of the state.On the basis of its physical features, the state can be
divided into following broad regions:
1. Sub-mountainous region
2. The Ganga Plain region and
3. The Trans-Yamuna region
Climate of Uttar Pradesh is predominantly Sub-tropical monsoon, mild and dry winter and
hot summer.
Many studies available on the observed trends and variability of rainfall and also extreme
rainfall events over India, but all the studies are based on past 100 years or more data and also
the recent years are not included (Guhathakurta et al, 2015; Guhathakurta et al, 2011;
Guhathakurta & Rajeevan, 2008 etc). Also, there are limited studies on district rainfall trends
and variability of Uttar Pradesh state. In the present report all the analysis of observed rainfall
patterns, trends and variability have been done based on recent past 30 years (1989-2018) that
will help to have idea of the recent changes for climate change adaptation and management by
the state authorities.
2. Data and Methodology
Daily Rainfall data from 1989 to 2018 is considered for analysis of trend, variability and mean
rainfall patterns. From the daily rainfall data monthly rainfall series of each stations are computed and
then monthly district rainfall series has been constructed by considering arithmetic average of all the
station rainfall values within the district. Fig.1 gives the location of the districts of the state. The monthly
rainfall series of the state has been computed by using area weighted rainfall values of all the districts
within the state. The objective of the analysis is to:
1. Identify the spatial pattern of the mean rainfall
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2. Understand district wise observed rainfall trend and variability in annual and SW monsoon
season (June, July, august and September).
Daily station rainfall data is utilized for identification of the mean spatial patterns and rainfall
intensity trends. From mean and standard deviation (SD), the coefficient of variation (CV) is calculated
as follows:
Coeffcient of variation (CV) =Standard Deviation
Mean× 100
Fig. 1 Location of the districts of Uttar Pradesh
3. State rainfall mean, variability and trend
Table 1 shows the mean rainfall (mm) and coefficient of variation of the state for the monsoon
months, southwest monsoon season and annual during the period 1989-2018. It can be seen that the
state gets highest rainfall (34% of south west monsoon rainfall) in July month followed by August (31%
of the south west monsoon rainfall). June and September receive 14% and 21% of south west monsoon
rainfall, respectively. About 89% of annual rainfall receives during the southwest monsoon season only.
The variability of monsoon and annual rainfall is 21% and 19%, respectively.
5
June July August September JJAS Annual Mean 96.1 238.6 219.0 142.9 696.7 784.1
CV 60.9 29.5 34.5 49.8 20.8 18.7
Table 1. Mean rainfall (mm) and coefficient of variation of the state for the monsoon months, southwest monsoon season and annual
Fig. 2 and 3 show the time series of rainfall in mm for the months of June, July, August, September and
southwest monsoon season, annual respectively. The trend lines are also displayed for each of the series.
The southwest monsoon season rainfall and the annual rainfall show significant decreasing trends. In
the monthly rainfall of southwest monsoon, it is observed that September month has a significant
decreasing trend, whereas other months do not have any significant trend. Although, an insignificant
decreasing trend is observed in June and August months and an insignificant increasing trend is
observed in July month. In the last 30 years, the highest rainfall of June, July, August and September
received 251.8 mm (Year 2013), 1424.8 mm (Year 1990), 401.9 mm (Year 1991) and 344 mm (Year
2003) respectively and the lowest rainfall of June, July, August and September received in the year 2012
(13.6 mm), 2002 (72.6 mm), 1997 (41.8 mm) and 2015 (23.9 mm), respectively. Highest southwest
monsoon rainfall of 987.6 mm and annual rainfall of 1074.5 mm received in the year 2003 and the
lowest southwest monsoon rainfall of 417.8 mm and annual rainfall of 484.1 mm received in 1997.
Fig. 2 Time series of rainfall in mm for the months of June, July, August, September and their trends
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Fig. 3 Time series of rainfall in mm for the southwest monsoon season and annual and their trends.
4. District rainfall mean, variability and trend
4.1 Mean and coefficient of variation
Table 2 gives the rainfall statistics for the districts of Uttar Pradesh for the four monsoon months,
southwest monsoon season and annual, and Fig. 4-5 show the spatial pattern of these statistics. It can
be seen that Gorakhpur receives the highest rainfall over other districts during all the southwest
monsoon months and the season. Rainfall received over Gorakhpur is 192.7 mm in June, 367.2 mm
in July, 337.4 mm in August and 220.2 mm in September, 1117.5 mm in southwest monsoon and
1245.3 mm in annual. Gorakhpur and Bahraich received maximum amount of rainfall in annual time
scale (1089-1245 mm). In general, districts over the northeast of Uttar Pradesh (except Khushi Nagar
and Ballia) received high amount of rainfall and districts over southwest of Uttar Pradesh received
less amount of rainfall. The districts with fewer amounts of rainfall during the southwest monsoon
season (421-560 mm) and annual (464-620 mm) are: Baghpat, Bulandshahar, Aligarh, Mathura,
Mahamaya Nagar, Etah, Ayodhya, Agra, Etawah, Kannauj, Auraiya, Kanpur Dehat, Kanpur, Mahoba,
Rae Bareli, Kaushambi and Khushi Nagar. Districts with minimum amount of rainfall in June, July,
August, September, southwest monsoon season and annual are Mathura (37.1 mm), Auraiya
(148.1mm), Rae Bareli (121.0 mm), Mahoba (74.0 mm), Rae Bareli (420.8 mm and 463.8 mm),
respectively.
The districts exhibiting maximum and minimum variability of mean rainfall are Chandauli and
Kheri Lakhimpur for June, Kannauj and Bahraich for July, Chandauli and Kheri Lakhimpur for August
and Shravasti and Bahraich for September. Khushi Nagar and Bahraich show the maximum and
7
minimum variability of rainfall during the southwest monsoon and Kaushambi and Bahraich show the
maximum and minimum variability of rainfall during annual time scales respectively.
DISTRICT JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER MONSOON ANNUAL
MEAN CV MEAN CV MEAN CV MEAN CV MEAN CV MEAN CV
AGRA 48.8 115 171.7 138 169.1 58 101.3 81 490.8 68 548.5 80
ALIGARH 51.6 382 198.6 53 188.1 61 108.5 82 546.8 62 623.5 73
ALLAHABAD 93.7 96 243.8 44 223.2 40 158.7 64 719.4 32 800.1 63
AMBEDKAR NGR 125.5 183 254.4 138 224.2 148 175.7 138 779.7 93 873.5 94
AURAIYA 51.2 86 148.1 152 147.2 60 102.5 99 449.0 69 493.7 97
AZAMGARH 103.4 207 259.6 111 233.2 46 174.0 140 770.2 69 854.1 83
BAGHPAT 63.6 437 152.3 203 165.0 142 107.4 275 488.2 117 579.8 120
BAHRAICH 165.9 63 332.6 36 284.0 39 176.1 49 958.5 18 1101.4 18
BALLIA 97.8 215 210.5 52 176.7 41 129.6 64 614.7 58 694.2 70
BALRAMPUR 159.9 68 301.8 91 277.7 57 141.1 69 880.5 49 994.7 75
BANDA 90.9 234 220.2 117 253.2 41 154.4 83 718.7 67 800.3 63
BARA BANKI 108.2 72 243.0 43 210.0 55 151.9 53 713.1 27 807.5 23
BAREILLY 99.0 218 270.0 48 255.8 56 161.1 147 786.0 51 879.4 47
BASTI 131.7 232 255.4 106 225.1 50 156.0 151 768.2 77 871.3 96
BIJNOR 127.7 179 298.8 94 281.3 49 176.5 74 884.3 61 1023.8 66
BUDAUN 86.0 240 242.9 101 215.6 56 137.6 171 682.1 66 764.9 90
BULANDSHAHR 42.3 91 172.0 140 147.4 64 94.5 84 456.1 66 512.9 80
CHANDAULI 63.8 721 216.0 235 196.1 252 110.1 418 586.1 132 636.9 131 KANSHIRAM NAGAR
69.5 297
204.7 119
226.1 60
140.4 109 640.7 75 712.8 97
DEORIA 142.1 72 289.5 60 225.9 42 155.5 73 813.0 41 932.4 39
ETAH 65.9 91 178.2 130 167.1 55 112.7 92 524.0 61 587.5 97
ETAWAH 40.8 474 170.4 58 167.3 65 107.7 92 486.2 71 535.1 95
FAIZABAD 122.7 244 249.2 103 233.3 47 158.8 143 763.9 74 845.4 69
FARRUKHABAD 82.6 251 215.0 109 198.2 50 147.4 107 643.2 74 716.1 81
FATEHPUR 81.8 107 196.9 127 204.3 53 124.0 81 607.0 58 673.8 70
FIROZABAD 47.8 563 186.0 134 180.5 66 91.9 242 506.2 99 583.4 120
G.BUDH NAGAR 55.3 571 176.0 158 206.5 191 139.6 258 577.2 107 652.4 123
GAZIABAD 69.1 96 190.7 143 196.3 97 124.7 104 580.8 71 656.7 107
GHAZIPUR 96.1 299 244.3 107 216.9 37 160.5 64 717.7 75 793.4 80
GONDA 147.4 73 259.2 102 230.7 106 146.7 152 784.0 64 886.2 71
GORAKHPUR 192.7 137 367.2 58 337.4 55 220.2 123 1117.5 48 1245.3 45
HAMIRPUR 85.1 104 234.6 45 237.2 41 151.2 80 708.1 32 781.4 28
HARDOI 77.2 266 213.7 40 176.9 58 129.7 74 597.5 60 674.7 55 MAHAMAYA NAGAR
46.2 421
189.8 138
168.0 73
101.5 218 505.5 103 562.8 141
JALAUN 69.7 92 199.8 48 192.1 47 134.3 87 595.9 32 664.0 82
JAUNPUR 72.2 385 206.9 127 202.4 71 150.8 71 632.3 88 703.2 102
JHANSI 82.4 110 227.5 41 226.3 44 135.3 108 671.5 32 742.6 52
J.PHULE NAGAR 107.3 400 286.4 178 301.1 132 140.2 261 835.1 102 960.4 106
KANNAUJ 53.4 627 183.1 237 164.9 202 119.2 345 520.5 137 594.0 151
8
KANPUR NAGAR 72.5 288 176.7 131 162.9 63 126.7 82 538.8 81 608.9 97
KANPUR DEHAT 45.0 600 154.1 148 179.7 77 94.9 233 473.6 105 523.7 139
KAUSHAMBI 69.8 571 155.0 156 148.7 216 82.9 364 456.4 125 494.9 160
KHUSHINAGAR 78.7 532 185.2 219 126.1 241 129.3 251 519.4 142 570.7 150
KHERI LAKHIMPUR 158.3 62 310.3 86 272.4 36 173.0 67 914.1 44 1046.4 41
LALITPUR 107.8 223 270.1 100 274.4 53 142.5 111 794.7 66 847.5 82
LUCKNOW 87.7 87 213.8 46 191.9 59 142.0 160 635.5 54 711.5 49
MAU 127.9 235 251.0 114 209.8 64 140.8 217 729.5 94 793.6 111
MAINPURI 54.0 106 204.8 125 189.8 58 134.5 184 583.1 81 650.6 87
MATHURA 37.1 717 185.7 172 146.6 155 80.0 352 449.3 105 492.2 129
MAHARAJGANJ 125.9 177 349.1 92 251.2 56 144.6 108 870.8 68 978.9 91
MEERUT 69.9 287 206.4 122 206.4 71 131.4 235 614.1 86 712.6 87
MIRZAPUR 111.9 86 285.6 51 265.3 58 175.9 77 838.6 42 921.7 39
MORADABAD 91.1 311 270.6 102 266.4 61 153.6 73 781.7 78 885.2 82
MUZAFFARNAGAR 78.5 65 206.0 123 185.5 56 138.7 77 608.7 56 715.9 66
PILIBHIT 90.8 234 212.7 116 212.4 65 133.2 174 649.1 73 719.3 105
PRATAPGARH 88.7 243 238.3 107 206.3 56 140.5 157 673.8 69 748.9 77
RAE BARELI 56.3 120 157.6 73 121.0 44 86.0 55 420.8 36 463.8 67
RAMPUR 69.2 291 238.3 112 239.9 54 149.5 160 696.9 72 788.6 106
S.KABIR NGR 166.3 223 357.2 106 269.6 145 177.4 206 970.5 84 1065.3 93
SHAHJAHANPUR 106.8 205 265.1 94 216.0 55 150.3 156 738.1 65 836.5 60
SAHARANPUR 116.4 73 240.5 46 237.5 52 139.3 83 733.6 30 874.0 48
SIDDHARTHNAGAR 149.9 71 340.7 91 266.2 44 154.3 65 911.1 47 1001.5 58
SITAPUR 119.6 73 269.3 94 232.6 48 164.3 59 785.7 50 879.8 60
SULTANPUR 98.9 223 245.9 43 211.5 58 147.6 151 703.9 54 783.2 51
SONBHADRA 116.7 252 293.1 97 260.6 45 170.5 145 840.8 74 928.7 70
UNNAO 76.7 270 183.1 133 164.0 67 136.5 174 560.2 83 637.3 99
VARANASI 99.9 74 266.5 45 248.2 45 177.4 66 792.1 29 881.3 27
CHITRAKOOT 100.5 498 260.3 204 249.3 182 141.5 289 751.7 117 814.8 120 SANT RAVIDAS NGR
105.0 447
239.0 212
210.6 247
115.1 436 669.8 132 744.0 133
SHRAVASTI 144.3 330 322.7 192 216.0 184 83.3 481 766.3 109 845.4 111
MAHOBA 52.4 319 214.5 125 175.5 69 74.0 240 516.4 85 563.1 110
Table 2. Rainfall statistics for the districts of Uttar Pradesh for the four monsoon months, southwest
monsoon season and annual
9
a
b
c
d
e
d
Fig.4 Mean rainfall pattern over districts of Uttar Pradesh for (a) June, (b) July (c) August, (d)
September, (e) Southwest monsoon season and (f) Annual
10
a
b
c
d
e
f
Fig.5 Coefficient of Variation (%) over districts of Uttar Pradesh for (a) June, (b) July (c) August, (d)
September, (e) Southwest monsoon season and (f) Annual
11
4.2 Trend in district rainfall
Fig.6 shows the trends in district rainfall over Uttar Pradesh. It can be seen that June rainfall has
significant increase in Khushi Nagar, Chandauli and Shahuji Maharajnagar districts. In July, there is
a significant increasing trend in Bareilly, Barabanki, Shravasti and Kanpur districts and there is a
significant decreasing trend in Shamli, Maharajganj and Gorakhpur districts. In August, a significant
increasing trend is in Chandauli district and a significant decrease in Shamli, Meerut, J. Phule Nagar,
Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Mahamaya Nagar, Etawah, Kanpur Dehat, Jalaun, Jaunpur and Gorakhpur
districts are seen. There is a significant increasing trend in Chandauli, Chitrakoot and Sant Ravidas
nagar districts and a decreasing trend in Agra, Hamirpur, Banda, Fatehpur, Rae Bareli and Jaunpur
districts for September. In the case of southwest monsoon, there is a significant increasing trend in
Bareilly, Shravasti and Chandauli districts and a significant decreasing trend in the districts of Shamli,
Ghaziabad, Bulandshahar, Bhimnagar, Agra, Banda, Gonda, Deoria, Ballia and Sidharthanagar. In
annual, a significant increasing trend in Baghpat, Bareilly, Kanpur, Shahuji Maharaj Nagar, Sant
Ravidas Nagar and Chandauli districts and significant decreasing trend in Shamli, Bulandshahar,
Banda, Fatehpur, Gonda, Sidharthnagar and Deoria districts are seen.
a b
c d
12
e f
Fig.6 Trends in district rainfall for (a) June, (b) July (c) August (d) September (e) JJAS and (f) annual
5. Analysis of Average frequencies for rainfall events of different intensities
5.1 Average frequency of Rainy days
The average frequency of rainy days in Uttar Pradesh is calculated for June, July, August, September,
southwest monsoon season and Annual and is depicted in Figure 7-12. In the month of June, maximum
number of rainy days lies in the range of 6-7 days in Shravasti, Balrampur, Maharajganj, Sant Kabir
Nagar, Gorakhpur, Deoria, Sonbhadra districts and in some parts of Pilibhit, Lakhimpur Kheri, Bahraich,
Sidharth Nagar, Khushi Nagar, Ballia, Mau, Gonda, Basti, Ambedkar Nagar, Mirzapur, Chandauli
districts. Minimum number of rainy days lies in the range of 3-4 daysin Gaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar,
Mathura, Mahamaya Nagar, Agra, Ayodhya districts and in some parts of Baghpat, Meerut, Hapur,
Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Etah, Mainpuri, Etawah districts. The remaining parts of the state has number of
rainy days in the range of 4-6 days. In July, the maximum number of rainy days lies in the range of 12-
13 days in Maharajganj, Gorakhpur, Mirzapur and Sonbhadra districts and in some parts of Saharanpur,
Bareilly, Pilibhit, Lkhimpur Kheri, Bahraich, Shravasti, Balrampur, Sidhharthnagar, Gonda, Khushi
Nagar, Deoria, Ballia, Mau, Azamgarh, Chandauli, Varanasi, Sant Kabir Nagar, Sultanpur, Prayagraj,
Chitrakoot and Lalitpur districts. While, minimum number of rainy days lies in the range of 8-9 days
mainly in Shamli, Baghpat, Gaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar, Madhura, Mahamaya Nagar districts and in
some parts of Muzaffarnagar, Meerut, Hapur, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Etah and Ayodhya districts.
Remaining parts of the states has rainy days in the range of 9-12 days. In August, maximum number of
rainy days lies in the range of 11-13 in Sonbhadra districts and some parts of Chandauli, Mirzapur,
Prayagraj, Chitrakoot, Banda, Mahoba, Jhansi, Lalitpur, Maharajganj, Gorakhpur, Khushi Nagar, Deoria,
Sidhharthnagar, bahraich, Lakhimpur Kheri, Pilibhit and Saharanpur districts and minimum number of
rainy days lies in the range of 8-9 days mainly in Shamli, Baghpat, Gaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar
andMahamaya Nagar districts and in some parts of Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Meerut, Hapur, Amroha,
13
Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Madhura, Etah, Agra and Ayodhya districts. While remining parts of the state has
rainy days in the range of 9-11 days. In September, the maximum number of rainy days lies in the range
of 8-9 days in Maharajganj, Khushi Nagar, Gorakhpur, Deoria, Azamgarh, Mau, Ballia, Gazipur,
Varanasi, Chandauli, Sonbhadra, Mirzapur and Ayodhya districts and minimum number of rainy days
lies in the range of 4-5 days mainly in Shamli, Baghpat, Gaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar, Meerut, Hapur,
Bulandshahr, Madhura, Mahamaya Nagardistricts and in some parts of Agra, Ayodhya, Etah, Aligarh,
Bhimnagar, Muzaffarnagar, Amroha and Saharanpur districts. The rest of the state has rainy days in the
range of 5-8 days.
In southwest monsoon season the maximum number of rainy days lies in the range of 34-37 days
in some parts of Saharanpur, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Lakhimpur Kheri, Bahraich, Shravasti, Balrampur,
Siddharthnagar, Sant Kabir Nagar, Gorakhpur, Khushi Nagar, Maharajganj, Deoria, Mau, Ballia,
Chandauli, Sultanpur, Gazipur, Varanasi, Mirzapur, Sonbhadra and Lalitpur districts and minimum
number of rainy days lies in the range of 22-26 days mainly in Baghpat, Gaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar,
Madhura, Mahamaya Nagar and in some parts of Saharanpur, Shamli, Muzaffarnagar, Meerut, Hapur,
Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Etah, Agra and Ayodhya districts. Remaining parts of the state has rainy days in
the range of 26-34 days. In annual, maximum umber of rainy days lies in the range of 41-45 days in
Saharanpur, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Lakhimpur Kheri, Bahraich, Shravasti, Balrampur, Siddharthnagar, Sant
Kabir Nagar, Khushi Nagar, Gorakhpur, Deoria, Ballia, Mau, Chandauli, Mirzapur, Sonbhadra and
Lalitpur districts. While minimum number of rainy days lies in the range of 27-31 days mainly in some
parts of Gaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar, Hapur, Bulanshahr, Aligarh, Madhura, Mahamaya Nagar,
Agra,Ayodhya, Etah and Etawahdistricts. Rest parts of the state has number of rainy days in the range of
31-41 days. In general, the number of rainy days is minimum in the southwest parts and maximum in the
northeast and southeast parts of Uttar Pradesh. The spatial pattern of rainy days is similar for the
southwest monsoon as well as annual. Although the spatial extent of minimum number of rainy days is
more in the southwest monsoon.
14
Fig. 7 Average frequency of rainy days: June Fig. 8 Average frequency of rainy days: July
Fig. 9 Average frequency of rainy days: August Fig. 10 Average frequency of rainy days: September
Fig. 11 Average frequency of rainy days: JJAS Fig. 12 Average frequency of rainy days: Annual
15
5.2 Average frequency of Heavy rainfall days
The average frequency of Heavy rainfall days in Uttar Pradesh is calculated for June, July,
August, September, June to September and Annual and given in Figure 13-18. In June, the maximum
number of heavy rainfall days lies in the range 0.5-1 days in some parts of Saharanpur, Bijnor, Amroha,
Moradabad, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Lakhimpur Kheri, Shravasti, Balrampur, Bahraich, Sitapur, Gonda,
Basti,Sant Kabir Nagar, Gorakhpur, Khushi Nagar, Maharajganj, Siddharthnagar, Balrampur, Deoria,
Faizabad and Mau districts. While minimum number of heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 0.1-0.2
days mainly in Baghpat, Gaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar, Aligarh, Mathura, Mahamaya Nagar, Ayodhya,
Mainpuri and Etawah and in some parts of Shamli, Meerut, Hapur, Bulandshahr, Agra, Etah, Jalaun,
Auraiya districts. Remaining parts of the state has the number of heavy rainfall days in the range of 0.2-
0.5 days. In July, the maximum number of heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 1.1-2 days in some
parts of Saharanpur, Bijnor, Amroha, Moradabad, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Lakhimpur Kheri, Bahraich,
Shravasti, Gonda, Balrampur, Siddharthnagar, Basti, Sant Kabir Nagar, Gorakhpur, Deoria, Maharajganj
and Khushi Nagar districts and minimum number of heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 0.4-0.6 days
mainly in some parts of Gautam Budh Nagar, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Mathura, Mahamaya Nagar, Agra,
Ayodhya, Auraiya, Kanpur Dehat, Jalaun, Unnao, Rae Bareli, Fatehpur and Kaushambi districts. Number
of heavy rainfall days in remaining districts are in the range of 0.6-1.1 days. In August, the maximum
number of heavy rainfall days 0.9-2 days in some parts of Saharanpur, Bijnor, Amroha, Moradabad,
Bareilly, Pilibhit, Lakhimpur Kheri, Sitapur, Bahraich, Balrampur, Siddharthnagar, Khushi Nagar,
Maharajganj, Sant Kabir Nagar and Gorakhpur districts and minimum number of heavy rainfall lies in
the range of 0.3-0.5 days mainly in Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Mathura, Mahamaya Nagar, Agra, Ayodhya,
Etawah, Auraiya, Jalaun, Kanpur, Unnao, Lucknow, Rae Bareli and Kaushambi districts. Remaining
districts has number of heavy rainfall days in the range of 0.5-0.9 days. In September maximum number
of heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 0.6-1 days mainly in some parts of Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar,
Bijnor, Hapur, Badaun, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur, Lakhimpur Kheri, Sitapur, Bahraich, Barabanki,
Faizabad, Sultanpur, Siddharthnagar, Maharajganj, Khushi Nagar, Sant Kabir Nagar, Gorakhpur, Deoria,
Azamgarh, Sonbhadra, Banda, Mainpri and Mirzapur districts and minimum number of heavy rainfall
days lies in the range of 0.2-0.3 days mainly in some parts of Gautam Budh Nagar,Bulandshahr, Aligarh,
Mathura, Mahamaya Nagar, Agra, Ayodhya, Etawah, Auraiya, Kanpur Dehat, Jalaun, Hardoi, Rae Bareli
and Kaushambi districts. Remaining parts of the state has number of heavy rainfall days in the range of
0.3-0.6 days.
In the southwest monsoon season, the maximum frequency of heavy rainfall days lies in the range
2.8-4 days in some parts of Saharanpur, Bijnor, Moradabad, Amroha, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Bahraich,
Shravasti, Balrampur, Sitapur, Maharajganj, Siddharthnagar, Khushi Nagar, Sant Kabir Nagar,
Gorakhpur and Gonda districts and the minimum frequency of heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 1-
1.6 days mainly in some parts of in Shamli, Baghpat, Gaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar, Bulandshahr,
16
Aligarh, Mathura, Mahamaya Nagar, Agra, Etah, Mainpuri, Etawah, Auraiya, Jalaun, Kanpur Dehat,
Unnao, Rae Bareli, Kaushambi, Fatehpur, Hardoi, Kannauj and Mahoba districts. Remaining parts of the
state has number of heavy rainfall days in the range of 1.6-2.8 days. In annual, the maximum frequency
of heavy rainfall days lies in the range of 3-4 days in some parts of Saharanpur, Bijnor, Moradabad,
Amroha, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Bahraich, Shravasti, Balrampur, Sitapur, Maharajganj, Siddharthnagar,
Khushi Nagar, Sant Kabir Nagar, Gorakhpur and Gonda districts and the minimum number of heavy
rainfall days lies in the range of 1-1.7 days mainly in some parts of in Shamli, Baghpat, Gaziabad, Gautam
Budh Nagar, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Mathura, Mahamaya Nagar, Agra, Etah, Mainpuri, Etawah, Auraiya,
Jalaun, Kanpur Dehat, Unnao, Rae Bareli, Kaushambi, Fatehpur, Hardoi, Kannauj and Mahoba districts.
The districts with maximum number of heavy rainfall days as well as minimum number of heavy rainfall
days are the same for southwest monsoon and annual. In general, the maximum frequency of heavy
rainfall days is seen in the northeast parts and also in some parts of north west parts whereas minimum
frequency of heavy rainfall days are seen over the southwest parts and central parts of the state.
Fig. 13 Average frequency of heavy rainfall days: June
Fig. 14 Average frequency of heavy rainfall days: July
Fig. 15 Average frequency of heavy rainfall days: August
Fig. 16 Average frequency of heavy rainfall days: September
17
Fig. 17 Average frequency of heavy rainfall days: JJAS
Fig. 18 Average frequency of heavy rainfall days: Annual
5.3 Average frequency of Dry days
The average frequency of dry days of Uttar Pradesh is calculated for June, July, August,
September, southwest monsoon season and Annual as indicated in Figure 19-24.
In June a maximum of 24.5-26 dry days is observed mainly in some parts of Shamli,
Muzaffarnagar, Baghpat, Meerut, Gaziabad, Hapur, Gautam Budh Nagar, Bulanshahr, Aligarh, Mathura,
Mahamaya Nagar, Kanchiramnagar, Etah, Agra, Ayodhya, Mainpuri, Etawah, Kannauj, Auraiya, Kanpur
Dehat and Jalaun districts and minimum number of dry days lies in the range 21-22 days mainly in some
parts of Saharanpur, Pilibhit, Lakhimpur Kheri, Bahraich, Shravasti ,Balrampur, Siddharthnagar,
Maharajganj, Khushi Nagar, Deoria, Gorakhpur, Sant Kabir Nagar, Basti, Sonbhadra and Lalitpur
districts. Remaining parts of the state has dry days in the range of 22-24.5 days. In July, the maximum
number of dry days lies in the range of 19.7-21 days mainly in Shamli, Baghpat, Gaziabad, Gautam Budh
Nagar and some parts of Saharanpur, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, Hapur, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Mathura,
Mahamaya Nagar, Agra and Ayodhya districts. While minimum number of dry days lies in the range of
15-16.7 days mainly in some parts of Saharanpur, Pilibhit, Lakhimpur Kheri, Bahraich, Shravasti,
Balrampur, Siddharthnagar, Maharajganj, Khushi Nagar, Gorakhpur, Sant Kabir Nagar, Basti, Sultanpur,
Varanasi, Sonbhadra, Lalitpur, Jhansi and Banda districts. Remaining parts of the state has dry days in
the range of 16.7-19.7 days. In August, the maximum number of dry days lies in the range of 20-21 days
mainly in some parts of Shamli, Baghpat, Gaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar, Saharanpur, Meerut,
Muzaffarnagar, Hapur, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Mathura, Mahamaya Nagar, Agra and Ayodhya districts
and minimum number of dry days lies in the range of 16-17 days mainly in some parts of Saharanpur,
Pilibhit, Lakhimpur Kheri, Bahraich, Shravasti, Siddharthnagar, Maharajganj, Khushi Nagar, Gorakhpur,
Basti, Sultanpur, Varanasi, Sonbhadra, Chandauli, Mirzapur, Lalitpur, Jhansi and Banda districts.
18
Remaining parts has dry days in the range of 17-20 days. In September, maximum number of dry days
lies in the range of 23.2-25 days mainly in Shamli, Baghpat, Gaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar and some
parts of Saharanpur, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, Hapur, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Mathura, Mahamaya Nagar,
Agra and Ayodhya districts. While minimum number of dry days lies in the range of 19-20.5 days mainly
in some parts of Bahraich, Shravasti, Siddharthnagar, Maharajganj, Khushi Nagar, Gorakhpur, Sant Kabir
Nagar, Basti, Sultanpur, Deoria, Ballia, Varanasi, Gazipur, Chandauli, Sonbhadra, Mirzapur and
Prayagraj districts. Remaining parts of the state has dry days in the range of 20.5-23.2 days.
In southwest monsoon season, maximum number of dry days lies in the range of 83.1-87 days
mainly in Shamli, Baghpat, Gaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar and some parts of Saharanpur, Meerut,
Muzaffarnagar, Hapur, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Mathura, Etah, Agra and Ayodhya districts. While
minimum number of dry days lies in the range of 68-72 days mainly in some parts of Pilibhit, Lakhimpur
Kheri, Bahraich, Shravasti, Balrampur, Siddharthnagar, Maharajganj, Khushi Nagar, Gorakhpur, Sant
Kabir Nagar, Basti, Sultanpur, Gonda, Faizabad, Deoria, Ballia, Varanasi, Gazipur, Chandauli,
Sonbhadra, Mirzapur and Banda districts. Remaining parts of the state has dry days in the range of 72-
83.1 days. The dry days are more towards the west parts of Uttar Pradesh whereas it is minimum in the
northeast and southeast parts of Uttar Pradesh during the southwest monsoon. In annual, the maximum
dry days are seen to be in the range of 296.2-305 days mainly in some parts of Shamli, Baghpat, Gaziabad,
Gautam Budh Nagar, Saharanpur, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, Hapur, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Mathura, Etah,
Agra, Ayodhya, Kanchiramnagar, Badaun and Bhimnagar districts. Minimum number of dry days are in
the range of 260-269.5 days mainly in some parts of Saharanpur, Pilibhit, Lakhimpur Kheri, Sravasti,
Balrampur, Siddharthnagar, Basti, Gonda, Deoria, Ballia, Varanasi and Banda districts. Remaining parts
of the state has dry days in the range of 269.5-296.2 days.
Fig. 19 Average frequency of dry days: June Fig. 20 Average frequency of dry days: July
19
Fig. 21 Average frequency of dry days: August Fig. 22 Average frequency of dry days: September
Fig. 23 Average frequency of dry days: JJAS Fig. 24 Average frequency of dry days: Annual
6 Trends in the frequencies of different rainfall events
6.1 Trend in frequency of Rainy days
The trend in frequency of rainy days is calculated for the rain gauge stations of Uttar Pradesh for
June, July, August, September, southwest monsoon and Annual and depicted in Figure 25-30. In June,
there is a significant decreasing trend in the number of rainy days in the stations of Amroha, Badaun,
Bareilly, Pilibhit, Lakhimpur Kheri, Gonda, Basti, Faizabad, Rae Bareli, Sultanpur, Azamgarh, Jaunpur
and Varanasi districts and there is a significant increasing trend in the number of rainy days in stations of
Baghpat district. No other districts have shown any significant trend. In July, a significant decrease is
seen in stations of Meerut, Mathura, Mahamaya Nagar and Gazipur districts and a significant increasing
trend is seen in Bijnor, Bareilly, Badaun, Farrukhabad, Hardoi, Lucknow, Barabanki, Jalaun, Jhansi,
Lakhimpur Kheri, Prayagraj, Chandauli and Ballia districts. Remaining districts do not have any
significant trend. In August, a significant decreasing trend in the number of rainy days is seen in stations
20
of Saharanpur, Shamli, Meerut, Moradabad, Mathura, Mahamaya Nagar, Agra, Ayodhya, Mainpuri,
Farrukhabad, Shahjahanpur, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Etawah, Kannauj, Kanpur, Unnao, Kanpur Dehat, Jalaun,
Jhansi, Mahoba, Rae Bareli, Fatehpur, Kaushambi, Balrampur, Gonda, Sidharthnagar, Basti, Gorakhpur,
Ambedkar Nagar, Sultanpur, Jaunpur, Varanasi, Chandauli and Sonbhadra districts and a significant
increasing trend is seen in stations of Bijnor and Barabanki districts. Other districts do not show any
significant trend. In September a significant decreasing trend is seen in stations of Muzaffarnagar,
Moradabad, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur, Lakhimpur Kheri, Shravasti, Balrampur, Bahraich,
Siddharthnagar, Maharajganj, Gonda, Basti, Farrukhabad, Mahamaya Nagar, Etah, Agra, Ayodhya,
Etawah, Jalaun, Jhansi, Kanpur Dehat, Kanpur, Hamirpur, Mahoba, Banda, Fatehpur, Kaushambi,
Prayagraj, Mirzapur, Sonbhadra, Chandauli, Varanasi, Sant Ravidas Nagar, Jaunpur, Pratapgarh, Rae
Bareli, Unnao, Lucknow, Hardoi, Barabanki, Faizabad, Amethi, Sultanpur, Azamgarh and Mau districts.
Remaining districts do not show any significant trend.
In southwest monsoon a significant decreasing trend is seen in stations of Saharanpur, Shamli, Meerut,
Moradabad, Bijnor, Mathura, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Balrampur, Bahraich, Siddharthnagar, Maharajganj,
Khushi Nagar, Gonda, Mahamaya Nagar, Etah, Agra, Ayodhya, Jalaun, Jhansi, Kanpur Dehat, Kanpur,
Hamirpur, Mahoba, Banda, Fatehpur, Prayagraj, Sonbhadra, Jaunpur, Rae Bareli, Unnao, Lucknow,
Faizabad, Ambedkar Nagar, Amethi, Sultanpur, Azamgarh, Ballia and Mau districts. While a significant
increasing trend is seen in stations of Bijnor, Jhansi, Lalitpur, Hardoi, Jalaun, Hamirpur, Banda and
Sonbhadra districts. Remaining districts do not show any significant trend. In annual, there is a significant
decreasing trend in stations of Shamli, Meerut, Mathura, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Lahimpur Kheri, Balrampur,
Siddharthnagar, Gonda, Deoria, Mahamaya Nagar, Etah, Agra, Ayodhya, Jalaun, Jhansi, Kanpur
Dehat,Mahoba, Banda, Fatehpur, Prayagraj, Sonbhadra, Jaunpur, Rae Bareli, Unnao, Lucknow, Faizabad,
Ambedkar Nagar, Amethi, Sultanpur, Azamgarh, Hardoi and Ballia districts. While a significant
increasing trend is seen in stations of Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Bareilly, Hardoi, Kanpur, Jalaun, Jhansi,
Lalitpur, Hamirpur, Banda, Ballia, Chandauli and Sonbhadra districts. Remaining districts do not show
any significant trend. In general, a large number of stations show a significant decreasing trend in the
number of rainy days during the monsoon months as well as in the Annual.
21
Fig. 25 Trend in frequency of rainy days: June Fig. 26Trend in frequency of rainy days: July
Fig. 27Trend in frequency of rainy days: August Fig. 28Trend in frequency of rainy days:
September
Fig. 29 Trend in frequency of rainy days: JJAS Fig. 30 Trend in frequency of rainy days: Annual
22
6.2 Trend in frequency of Heavy rainfall days
The Trend in frequency of Heavy rainfall days is calculated for Uttar Pradesh for June, July,
August, September, southwest monsoon season and Annual and depicted in Figure 31-36. In June, there
is a significant decreasing trend in the number of heavy rainfall days in stations of Gonda, Gorakhpur,
Khushi Nagar, Ballia, Azamgarh, Varanasi, Etawah, Kanpur Dehat districts and a significant increasing
trend in stations of Aligarh, Etah, Moradabad, Jhansi, Lalitpur and Jaunpur districts. Remaining districts
do not show any significant trend. In July, a significant decreasing trend is seen in stations of Rampur,
Etah, Hardoi, Kanpur Dehat, Jhansi, Gonda, Faizabad, Kaushambi, Gorakhpur, Khushi Nagar, Deoria,
Azamgarh and Jaunpur districts. Remaining districts do not show any significant trend. In the month of
August, a significant decreasing trend in the number of heavy rainfall days is seen in the stations of
Shamli, Meerut, Bijnor, Amroha, Gautam Budh Nagar, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Mathura, Mahamaya
Nagar, Etah, Agra, Ayodhya, Etawah, Rampur, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur, Hardoi, Lucknow,
Kanpur, Kanpur Dehat, Jalaun, Jhansi, Mahoba, Amethi, Sultanpur, Gonda, Faizabad, Gorakhpur, Khushi
Nagar, Ballia, Azamgarh, Jaunpur, Pratapgarh, Kaushambi and Varanasi districts and a significant
increasing trend is seen in the stations of Lakhimpur Kheri and Etah districts. While other districts do not
show any significant trend. In September, there is a significant decreasing trend in the stations of
Muzaffarnagar, Rampur, Bulandshahr, Mathura, Mahamaya Nagar, Agra, Badaun, Etawah, Kannauj,
Hardoi, Kanpur, Kanpur Dehat, Jhansi, Lalitpur, Hamirpur, Mahoba, Banda, Fatehpur, Rae Bareli,
Gonda, Gorakhpur, Khushi Nagar, Ballia, Azamgarh, Jaunpur, Varanasi, Prayagraj and Mirzapur
districts. While, a significant increasing trend is seen the stations of Etah, Shahjahanpur, Barabanki, Ballia
and Sonbhadra districts. Other districts do no show any significant trend.
In southwest monsoon, a significant decreasing trend in the number of heavy rainfall days is seen
in the stations of Shamli, Meerut, Bijnor, Amroha, Gautam Budh Nagar, Mathura, Mahamaya Nagar,
Etah, Agra, Ayodhya, Rampur, Bareilly, Hardoi, Kanpur, Kanpur Dehat, Unnao, Jhansi, Hamirpur,
Mahoba, Amethi, Fatehpur, Rae Bareli, Gonda, Faizabad, Gorakhpur, Khushi Nagar, Deoria, Ballia, Mau,
Azamgarh, Jaunpur, Pratapgarh, Kaushambi, Mirzapur and Sonbhadra districts and a significant
increasing trend is seen in the stations of Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Bareilly, Etah, Barabanki and Ballia
districts.Remaining districts do not have any significant trend.In annual, there is a significant decreasing
trend in the stations of Shamli, Meerut, Bijnor, Amroha, Gautam Budh Nagar, Mathura, Mahamaya
Nagar, Etah, Agra, Ayodhya, Rampur, Bareilly, Hardoi, Kanpur, Kanpur Dehat, Unnao, Jhansi,
Hamirpur, Mahoba, Amethi, Fatehpur, Rae Bareli, Gonda, Faizabad, Gorakhpur, Khushi Nagar, Deoria,
Ballia, Azamgarh, Jaunpur, Pratapgarh and Kaushambi districts and a significant increasing trend is seen
in the stations of Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Bareilly, Etah, Barabanki and Ballia districts.
Remaining districts do not show any significant trend. In general, a large number of stations in the state
show a significant decreasing trend in the number of heavy rainfall days during the southwest monsoon
23
as well as in the annual..
Fig.31 Trend in frequency of heavy rainfall days: June
Fig. 32 Trend in frequency of heavy rainfall days: June
Fig. 33 Trend in frequency of heavy rainfall days: August
Fig. 34 Trend in frequency of heavy rainfall days: September
Fig. 35 Trend in frequency of heavy rainfall days: JJAS
Fig. 36 Trend in frequency of heavy rainfall days: Annual
24
6.3 Trend in frequency of Dry days
The Trend in frequency of dry days is calculated for Uttar Pradesh for June, July, August, September,
June to September and Annual and is given in Figure 37-42. It shows that in June, there is a significant
decreasing trend in the number of dry days in the stations of Baghpat, Gautam Budh Nagar, Bulandshahr,
Aligarh, Agra, Mainpuri and Gonda districts and there is a significant increasing trend in the number of
dry days in the stations of Amroha, Badaun, Pilibhit, Faizabad, Ambedkar Nagar, Rae Bareli, Sultanpur,
Kaushambi, Khushi Nagar, Azamgarh, Gazipur, Varanasi and Mirzapur districts. Remaining districts do
not show any significant trend. In July, a significant decreasing trend is seen in the stations of Bareilly,
Mainpuri, Farrukhabad, Hardoi, Auraiya, Lakhimpur Kheri, Lucknow, Barabanki, Amethi, Basti,
Pratapgarh, Chitrakoot, Prayagraj, Sonbhadra and Ballia districts and a significant increasing trend is seen
in the stations of Saharanpur and Mahamaya Nagar districts. Remaining districts do not show any
significant trend. In August, there is a significant increasing trend in the stations of Saharanpur, Shamli,
Bijnor, Amroha, Mahamaya Nagar, Agra, Ayodhya, Etawah, Jalaun, Kanpur Dehat, Jhansi, Mahoba,
Banda, Kannauj, Farrukhabad, Shahjahanpur, Pilibhit, Bareilly,Fatehpur, Rae Bareli, Bahraich,
Balrampur, Faizabad, Ambedkar Nagar, Gazipur, Jaunpur and Varanasidistricts. Remaining districts do
not show any significant trend. In September, there is a significant decrease in the stations of Mainpuri
and there is a significant increase in the stations of Saharanpur, Bijnor, Moradabad, Badaun, Pilibhit,
Shahjahanpur, Agra, Ayodhya, Mahamaya Nagar, Etawah, Mainpuri, Auraiya, Kanpur, Kanpur Dehat,
Jalaun, Kannauj, Jhansi, Lalitpur, Mahoba, Banda, Fatehpur, Rae Bareli, Amethi, Sultanpur, Faizabad,
Ambedkar Nagar, Unnao, Lucknow, Barabanki, Hardoi, Farrukhabad, Lakhimpur Kheri, Sitapur,
Bahraich, Shravasti, Balrampur, Siddharthnagar, Maharajganj, Gonda, Kaushambi, Prayagraj, Sant
Ravidas Nagar, Mirzapur, Varanasi, Pratapgarh, Jaunpur, Azamgarh, Mau, Ballia, Gazipur and Deoria
districts. Rest of the districts do not have any significant trend.
In southwest monsoon season, there is a significant decreasing trend of dry days in the districts
of Baghpat, Agra and Etah districts and there is a significant increasing trend in the stations of Saharanpur,
Bijnor, Muzaffarnagar, Moradabad, Rampur, Badaun, Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur, Agra, Ayodhya, Etawah,
Mainpuri, Kanpur, Jalaun, Jhansi, Mahoba, Banda, Fatehpur, Rae Bareli, Sultanpur, Ambedkar
Nagar,Lucknow, Hardoi, Farrukhabad, Lakhimpur Kheri, Sitapur, Siddharthnagar, Khushi Nagar,
Gorakhpur, Gonda, Prayagraj, Chitrakoot, Mirzapur, Varanasi, Azamgarh, Mau, Ballia, Gazipur,
Chandauli and Sonbhadra districts. Remaining districts do not show any significant trend. In annual, a
significant decreasing trend in the number of dry days is seen in the stations of Baghpat, Aligarh,
Mahamaya Nagar, Etah, Agra, Mainpuri, Jalaun, Farrukhabad, Lakhimpur Kheri, Shravasti, Balrampur,
Siddharthnagar, Hardoi, Barabanki, Gonda, Banda, Fatehpur, Rae Bareli, Prayagraj, Ballia and Varanasi
districts. While, a significant increasing trend in the number of dry days is seen in the stations of
Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Amroha, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Agra, Ayodhya,
25
Mainpuri, Kanpur, Jalaun, Jhansi, Mahoba, Banda, Fatehpur, Rae Bareli, Sultanpur, Lucknow, Barabanki,
Hardoi, Farrukhabad, Lakhimpur Kheri, Sitapur, Balrampur, Gonda, Basti, Gorakhpur, Chitrakoot,
Kaushambi, Prayagraj, Varanasi, Azamgarh, Ballia, Gazipur and Chandauli districts. In general, a
significant increase in the number of dry days is seen over many districts of Uttar Pradesh in September
and the southwest monsoon season.
Fig. 37 Trend in frequency of dry days: June Fig. 38 Trend in frequency of dry days: July
Fig. 39 Trend in frequency of dry days: August Fig. 40 Trend in frequency of dry days: September
26
Fig. 41 Trend in frequency of dry days: JJAS Fig. 42 Trend in frequency of dry days: Annual
7. Conclusions
In the present study we have investigated the rainfall pattern, its variability and also changes
based on recent 30 years data. In the analysis we have considered monsoon months, the southwest
monsoon season and annual scale. The spatial scale has been considered from state to district for
the study of mean rainfall, and stations are considered for the study of intensities of rainfall. The
analysis brought many significant features of rainfall pattern and can be used for water agricultural
managements. Some of the important results can be summarized as:
Uttar Pradesh gets about 89% of its annual rainfall in the southwest monsoon season.
The highest rainfall (34% of south west monsoon rainfall) is received in July month
followed by August (31% of the south west monsoon rainfall).
The southwest monsoon season rainfall and the annual rainfall show significant
decreasing trends.
September month rainfall has a significant decreasing trend, whereas other
southwest monsoon months do not have any significant trend during the study
period.
27
The highest mean southwest monsoon rainfall (1117.5 mm) is observed over
Gorakhpur district and the lowest mean southwest monsoon rainfall (420.8 mm) is
observed over Rae Bareli district.
Gorakhpur and Bahraich received maximum amount of rainfall in annual time scale
(1089-1245 mm) and districts with minimum amount of rainfall in annual time scale
are Mathura, Auraiya, Rae Bareli, Mahoba, Rae Bareli ( 464-620 mm).
In southwest monsoon, there is a significant increasing trend in Bareilly, Shravasti
and Chandauli districts and a significant decreasing trend in the districts of Shamli,
Ghaziabad, Bulandshahar, Bhimnagar, Agra, Banda, Gonda, Deoria, Ballia and
Sidharthnagar.
In annual time scale, a significant increasing trend in Baghpat, Bareilly, Kanpur,
Shahuji Maharaj Nagar, Sant Ravidas Nagar and Chandauli districts and significant
decreasing trend in Shamli, Bulandshahar, Banda, Fatehpur, Gonda, Sidharthnagar
and Deoria districts are seen.
In southwest monsoon season the maximum number of rainy days (~ 34-37 days) is
observed in some parts of Saharanpur, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Lakhimpur Kheri, Bahraich,
Shravasti, Balrampur, Siddharthnagar, Sant Kabir Nagar, Gorakhpur, Khushi Nagar,
Maharajganj, Deoria, Mau, Ballia, Chandauli, Sultanpur, Gazipur, Varanasi,
Mirzapur, Sonbhadra and Lalitpur districts and minimum number of rainy days (~
22-26 days) is observed mainly in Baghpat, Gaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar,
Madhura, Mahamaya Nagar and in some parts of Saharanpur, Shamli,
Muzaffarnagar, Meerut, Hapur, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Etah, Agra and Ayodhya
districts.
The annual average frequency of rainy days is maximum (~ 41-45 days) in
Saharanpur, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Lakhimpur Kheri, Bahraich, Shravasti, Balrampur,
Siddharthnagar, Sant Kabir Nagar, Khushi Nagar, Gorakhpur, Deoria, Ballia, Mau,
Chandauli, Mirzapur, Sonbhadra and Lalitpur districts and minimum (~ 27-31 days)
mainly in some parts of Gaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar, Hapur, Bulanshahr, Aligarh,
Madhura, Mahamaya Nagar, Agra, Ayodhya, Etah and Etawah districts.
28
In the southwest monsoon, the maximum frequency of heavy rainfall days (~ 2.8-4
days) is observed in some parts of Saharanpur, Bijnor, Moradabad, Amroha,
Bareilly, Pilibhit, Bahraich, Shravasti, Balrampur, Sitapur, Maharajganj,
Siddharthnagar, Khushi Nagar, Sant Kabir Nagar, Gorakhpur and Gonda districts
and the minimum frequency of heavy rainfall days (~ 1-1.6 days) is observed mainly
in some parts of in Shamli, Baghpat, Gaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar, Bulandshahr,
Aligarh, Mathura, Mahamaya Nagar, Agra, Etah, Mainpuri, Etawah, Auraiya,
Jalaun, Kanpur Dehat, Unnao, Rae Bareli, Kaushambi, Fatehpur, Hardoi, Kannauj
and Mahoba districts.
The annual average frequency of heavy rainfall days is maximum (~ 3-4 days) in the
same districts where it is maximum during the southwest monsoon, similarly it is
minimum (~ 1-1.7 days ) in the districts where it is minimum during the southwest
monsoon season.
The maximum number of dry days during the southwest monsoon season (~ 83.1-87
days) is observed mainly in Shamli, Baghpat, Gaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar and
some parts of Saharanpur, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, Hapur, Bulandshahr, Aligarh,
Mathura, Etah, Agra and Ayodhya districts and minimum number of dry days ( ~
68-72 days) is observed mainly in some parts of Pilibhit, Lakhimpur Kheri, Bahraich,
Shravasti, Balrampur, Siddharthnagar, Maharajganj, Khushi Nagar, Gorakhpur, Sant
Kabir Nagar, Basti, Sultanpur, Gonda, Faizabad, Deoria, Ballia, Varanasi, Gazipur,
Chandauli, Sonbhadra, Mirzapur and Banda districts.
In annual, the maximum dry days are (~ 296.2-305 days) mainly observed in some
parts of Shamli, Baghpat, Gaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar, Saharanpur, Meerut,
Muzaffarnagar, Hapur, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Mathura, Etah, Agra, Ayodhya,
Kanchiramnagar, Badaun and Bhimnagar districts and the minimum number of dry
days (~ 260-269.5 days) are observed mainly in some parts of Saharanpur, Pilibhit,
Lakhimpur Kheri, Srawsti, Balrampur, Siddharthnagar, Basti, Gonda, Deoria, Ballia,
Varanasi and Banda districts.
29
A significant decreasing trend in frequency of rainy days of southwest monsoon is
seen in stations of Saharanpur, Shamli, Meerut, Moradabad, Bijnor, Mathura,
Bareilly, Pilibhit, Balrampur, Bahraich, Siddharthnagar, Maharajganj, Khushi
Nagar, Gonda, Mahamaya Nagar, Etah, Agra, Ayodhya, Jalaun, Jhansi, Kanpur
Dehat, Kanpur, Hamirpur, Mahoba, Banda, Fatehpur, Prayagraj, Sonbhadra,
Jaunpur, Rae Bareli, Unnao, Lucknow, Faizabad, Ambedkar Nagar, Amethi,
Sultanpur, Azamgarh, Ballia and Mau districts and a significant increasing trend is
seen in stations of Bijnor, Jhansi, Lalitpur, Hardoi, Jalaun, Hamirpur, Banda and
Sonbhadra districts.
In annual, there is a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of rainy days in
stations of Shamli, Meerut, Mathura, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Lahimpur Kheri, Balrampur,
Siddharthnagar, Gonda, Deoria, Mahamaya Nagar, Etah, Agra, Ayodhya, Jalaun,
Jhansi, Kanpur Dehat, Mahoba, Banda, Fatehpur, Prayagraj, Sonbhadra, Jaunpur,
Rae Bareli, Unnao, Lucknow, Faizabad, Ambedkar Nagar, Amethi, Sultanpur,
Azamgarh, Hardoi and Ballia districts and there is a significant increasing trend seen
in stations of Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Bareilly, Hardoi, Kanpur, Jalaun, Jhansi,
Lalitpur, Hamirpur, Banda, Ballia, Chandauli and Sonbhadra districts.
In the southwest monsoon, a significant decreasing trend in the number of heavy
rainfall days is seen in the stations of Shamli, Meerut, Bijnor, Amroha, Gautam Budh
Nagar, Mathura, Mahamaya Nagar, Etah, Agra, Ayodhya, Rampur, Bareilly, Hardoi,
Kanpur, Kanpur Dehat, Unnao, Jhansi, Hamirpur, Mahoba, Amethi, Fatehpur, Rae
Bareli, Gonda, Faizabad, Gorakhpur, Khushi Nagar, Deoria, Ballia, Mau, Azamgarh,
Jaunpur, Pratapgarh, Kaushambi, Mirzapur and Sonbhadra districts and a significant
increasing trend is seen in the stations of Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Bareilly, Etah,
Barabanki and Ballia districts.
In annual, there is a significant decreasing trend in the number of heavy rainfall days
in the stations of Shamli, Meerut, Bijnor, Amroha, Gautam Budh Nagar, Mathura,
Mahamaya Nagar, Etah, Agra, Ayodhya, Rampur, Bareilly, Hardoi, Kanpur, Kanpur
Dehat, Unnao, Jhansi, Hamirpur, Mahoba, Amethi, Fatehpur, Rae Bareli, Gonda,
Faizabad, Gorakhpur, Khushi Nagar, Deoria, Ballia, Azamgarh, Jaunpur, Pratapgarh
and Kaushambi districts and a significant increasing trend is seen in the stations of
Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Bareilly, Etah, Barabanki and Ballia districts.
30
In southwest monsoon season, there is a significant decreasing trend of dry days in
the districts of Baghpat, Agra and Etah districts and there is a significant increasing
trend in the stations of Saharanpur, Bijnor, Muzaffarnagar, Moradabad, Rampur,
Badaun, Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur, Agra, Ayodhya, Etawah, Mainpuri, Kanpur, Jalaun,
Jhansi, Mahoba, Banda, Fatehpur, Rae Bareli, Sultanpur, Ambedkar Nagar,
Lucknow, Hardoi, Farrukhabad, Lakhimpur Kheri, Sitapur, Siddharthnagar, Khushi
Nagar, Gorakhpur, Gonda, Prayagraj, Chitrakoot, Mirzapur, Varanasi, Azamgarh,
Mau, Ballia, Gazipur, Chandauli and Sonbhadra districts.
In annual, a significant decreasing trend in the number of dry days is seen in the
stations of Baghpat, Aligarh, Mahamaya Nagar, Etah, Agra, Mainpuri, Jalaun,
Farrukhabad, Lakhimpur Kheri, Shravasti, Balrampur, Siddharthnagar, Hardoi,
Barabanki, Gonda, Banda, Fatehpur, Rae Bareli, Prayagraj, Ballia and Varanasi
districts. While, a significant increasing trend in the number of dry days is seen in
the stations of Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Amroha, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur,
Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Agra, Ayodhya, Mainpuri, Kanpur, Jalaun, Jhansi, Mahoba,
Banda, Fatehpur, Rae Bareli, Sultanpur, Lucknow, Barabanki, Hardoi, Farrukhabad,
Lakhimpur Kheri, Sitapur, Balrampur, Gonda, Basti, Gorakhpur, Chitrakoot,
Kaushambi, Prayagraj, Varanasi, Azamgarh, Ballia, Gazipur and Chandauli districts.
31
Acknowledgement:
The authors acknowledge Secretary, MOES, DGM, India Meteorological Department
and Head, Climate Research and Services for guidance, suggestions and encouragement to carry
out the works. Acknowledge also to Hydrology section and National Data Centre of India
Meteorological Department Pune for making availability of the data.
References:
1. Guhathakurta P, Rajeevan M, Sikka D R and Tyagi A, 2015 “Observed changes in
southwest monsoon rainfall over India during 1901–2011”, Int. J. Climatol, 35, 1881-
1898.
2. Guhathakurta P, Sreejith O P and Menon P A, 2011 “Impact of climate changes on
extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India”, J. Earth System Science. 120, No. 3, 359-
373.
3. Guhathakurta P and Rajeevan M, 2008 “Trends in rainfall pattern over India”,
International J. of Climatology, 28: 1453–1469.
Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes over
Andhra Pradesh State
The report brings out observed rainfall variability and trends over the state as an impact of climate change based on recent 30 years of data ( 1981 - 2018 )
Rainfall pattern of monsoon months, south west monsoon season and annual of the state and it’s districts as well as extreme rainfall event of different intensity of stations areanalysed.
PREPARED AND DESIGNED ATHYDROMETEOROLOGY SECTION
CLIMATE APPLICATION AND USER INTERFACE GROUPCLIMATE RESEARCH AND SERVICES, PUNE