atlantic multidecadal variability & inter-american rainfall
DESCRIPTION
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability & Inter-American Rainfall. D. B. Enfield 1 & A. M. Mestas-Nuñez 2 1 NOAA-AOML, Miami, Florida, USA 2 U. Miami/CIMAS, Miami, Florida, USA Research supported by NOAA OGP/PACS & IAI/CRN Enfield et al., 2001: Geophys. Res. Lett. What is the AMO?. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability & Inter-American Rainfall
D. B. Enfield1 & A. M. Mestas-Nuñez2
1NOAA-AOML, Miami, Florida, USA2U. Miami/CIMAS, Miami, Florida, USA
Research supported by NOAA OGP/PACS & IAI/CRN
Enfield et al., 2001: Geophys. Res. Lett.
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
What is the AMO? Documented by Schlesinger & Ramankutty
(1994) Regionally strong component of SSA analysis 65-70 year oscillation in N. Atlantic SST Related to shallow overturning circulation
Other observations Multi-taper SVD analysis of Kushnir et al. Gyre transport variations (Curry et al.)
Model replication GFDL coupled model (Delworth & Mann)
==> Overturning circulation implicated
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
Global warming model w/ greenhouse gases & solar forcing …residual low-pass observations not explained …residual behaves like AMO
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
Other evidence …
Supported by paleoclimate data, e.g.:
1650-1983 reconstruction of global air temperatures by Mann et al. (Nature, 1998)
1500-1999 European reconstruction by Luterbacher et al.
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
1650-1983 tree rings & ice coresMann et al. (Nature, 1998)
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
1500-1999 European treesLuterbacher et al. (GRL, 1999)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
4
2
8
16
Peri
od (
years
)
32
64
128
256
Wavelet Power Spectrum, NAOI winters, 1500-1999
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
Our work … Define AMO index, correlate with global SST
Association with hemispheric rainfall
Associated changes in hurricane frequency
AMO slow covariation with US rainfall
Effects on river flows (Okeechobee)
Examine change in ENSO rainfall impacts
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
SSTA: global distribution
Correlate AMO index with annual mean gridded SST
…10-year running means
…correlation significance by Monte Carlo (random phase method of Ebisuzaki, 1997)…pattern like global rotated EOF (Mestas & Enfield, JC, 1999)
Correlation of AMO with global SSTA
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
Western Hemisphere rainfall associations
Which season is primarily responsible for the U.S. associations we see?
What rainfall associations exist on a larger, hemispheric scale?
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
Correlation of AMO vs. Eischeid gridded rainfall (JAS)
Correlation of AMO with U.S. divisional rainfall (1895-1999)
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
Lake Okeechobee inflow vs. AMO
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
Q: How are Atlantic hurricanes affected?
The total numbers of tropical storms are not affected by the AMO phase. However,
The intensity *IS* affected:A significantly larger number of MAJOR HURRICANES occurs during AMO warm phases
We have been in a cool phase from 1970 through 1994 and have moved back into another warm phase
Goldenberg et al. (Science 2001)
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
Q: How is ENSO-related rainfall affected by the
AMO? Previous studies ==> ENSO-PDO interaction
Gershunov & Barnett; Dettinger et al.
20-year running correlations (R-vs-AMO)
Two 30-year correlations: AMO- , AMO+
DJF NINO 3.4 vs. JFM rainfall (unsmoothed)
AMO- ==> 1965-1994
AMO+ ==> 1930-1959
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
20-year running correlations
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
AMO- ==> 1965-1994
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
AMO+ ==> 1930-1959
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
Principal Results AMO+ ==> less rain, Mississippi basin, most of U.S.,
Mississipi outflow ==> 10% peak-to-peak
AMO+ ==> more rain in Florida, NE & Pacific NW, Okeechobee inflow ==> 40% peak-to-peak
Pattern is dominated by N.H. summer (JAS), Also N. Europe+, NW Africa+ and NE Brasil- (summer)
Major hurricanes are >2x more frequent for AMO [+]
ENSO-rainfall patterns change with AMO phase (DJF)
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
Further research needed…
How does the AMO work?
Usual questions RE mechanisms, feedbacks, etc
Role of the Atlantic overturning circulation?
Atlantic-Pacific connection ==> NH annular mode?
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
Further research needed…
Slow co-variation of rainfall (mainly summer?)
WH warm pool effects on moisture transport to U.S.
N. Atlantic influence on prevailing summer circulation patterns over North America
Possible interaction with the North American Monsoon
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
Further research needed…
AMO-ENSO interaction (mainly winter)
North Atlantic influence on prevailing winter circulation over North America
Hypthesis: AMO(+) ==> deepened trough over eastern U.S.
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory
Relevant documentation
Relevant publications: Enfield & Mestas-Nuñez (J. Clim., 1999) Mestas-Nuñez & Enfield (J. Clim., 1999)
1999 & 2000 reprints are PDF files at<http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/docs.html>
This paper submitted to Geophys. Res.
Lett.Email request to <[email protected]>