o · 2011. 6. 10. · the polar cold vortex (then above baffinland), a quite unusual stratospheric...

THE PHYSICAL BASIS OF CLIMATEmiddotAND CLIMATE MODELLING WMO - GARP Publicationa Series No 16 1975 S 106-118

-

APPBNDIX 12

lUSTORY AND INTRANSITIVITY OFmiddot CLIMATE

by H FlOOn Meteorologisches Inltitut der Universitiit Bonn FRO

1bull REGIONAL INSTABILITIES

A few years ago B Lorenz (1) raised a fundamental question Is our climate stable Tbis q~estion has become quite real in a situation where large-scale climatic anoshymalies (culminating during 1912) demonstrate at least on a regional scale the occurrence of potential instashybilities

Lorenz definitions of a transitive intransitive and of an almost-intransitive climate are given in a slightly revised form in this report (Chapter 4) According to

r this definition - as derived from ergodic theory - tbe observed climatic fluctuations during the 3()()year period of instrumental records cannot be taken as indicative of an almost-intransitive climate evidence for this exists only on a mucb longer time-scale (see following chapter 2) However tbe occurrence of bimodal frequency distribushytions of meteorological data presents a hint to local or regional Instabilities of climate

Especially in middle latitudes moving averages of climatic data show non-periodic oscillations only in a few cases is some kind of a flip-flop mechanism at work producing a bimodal or multimodal distribution or at least unusually large variances Of special interest are the extreme variances of rainfall in the equatorial regions of the Pacific (2 3 4) positively correlated with surface water temperature They occur nearly simultaneously along tbe 12000 km distance from the Ecuador coast (80W) to Nauru (169D E) together with the EI Nino phenomenon along the coasts of Peru-Ecuador similar but less striking events are observed in the equatorial Atlantic Their physical interpretation is given by the change of sign of the helical Ekman drift of the ocean layer above the thermocline on botb sides oftbe equator While normally equatorial upwelling causes stabilization togctber with cloudless arid conditions a weakening of tbe SB trade system leads to equatorial downwelling with tropical warm water destabilization and cumuloshynimbus convection with humid conditions (Fig 1) Apparently tbe two opposite regimes cannot occur simultaneously in different parts of tbe whole system at least not eatt of 165B this leads to a nearly synchronous twitch from one regime into tbe otber Teleconnexion Itutliel (2 3 7) indicate that tho two contrasting

patterns are correlated with many circulation anomalies in other parts of the world

According to the results of an advanced air-sea intershyaction model (5) equatorial upwelling can be considered as normal (see also 6) During the irregular anomaly periods the oceanic evaporation increases by (at least) 20-3000 and rainfall by a factor of 5-20 tbis produces a drastic change of the energy budget of the Hadley circulation with large-scale effects on the atmospberic ~ulation (7 8) Between the Pacific anomalies and d

I

A) Aquator KAlT 5ymmtrltch IOIl~I I r1~ IJ I

I ~~A$UTIIlY[IISIOfI )- shy(- shy 1shy H-)o---c-o- I om o- ____t_~a_--_-_ shy

K )~( K TI1 I OJ omiddot

I)Aquator KALT uymmtritch I

K O~(---t--------- shyK I K TI1 shy

------0 0

-Io11m [

I I I -I I PU$AT-1IIYER 1011i--middotoomiddot008-00-6

---

I

o

~ Omiddot I I

C) Aquar WARM uymmIllchI

It Ir Itshy

1

IOllm-

PASSU INYUSION (5-shyfO-~-middot0 rD-6-oo

o ~--------~E--~J-(--~-- shyu

obull 10bull 20bullS

Plpro I Meridional CirellladoD Patterns or Troposphere aDd Upper Ocean MiKiDa Layer ia u Equatorial Pacific

1middot I 1 shy

- -

107 APPENDIX 1 2

those of the Atlantic - here including the densely popushy monsoonal rainfall in N- and NE-India causes a weakshylated region of NE Brazil - a negative correlation has ening of the system with its highly effective high-troposhybeen found (4 9) probably caused by the varying posishy spheric divergence pattern above Africa (11) tion ot the warm anticyclone during southern summer Surprisingly enough recent (but preliminary) invesshyabove the western margins of the Amazonas basin the tigations seem to indicate frequent coincidences between typical season is January-April or May the anomalies of these two systems - the Indo-African

On the other side of the Atlantic the recurring droughts Monsoon and the Pacific-Atlantic Trades with equatorial in the Sudan-Sahel belt of Africa (from Ethiopia to upwelling - centered in a distance of nearly 1800 longishySenegal) occur nearly simultaneously with failures of the tude and developing in different seasons As a challenge monsoon raiDS in northern and central Indo-Pakisshy tor further investigations with statistical techniques tan (10) This can be interpreted as a resuJt ot the Figure 2 shows large and smaller deviations trom normal varying intensity of the large-scale monsoonal system in six areas the best examples are around 1899 1913 consisting of the tropical easterly jet near 150 mbs 1941 and 1972 each aggregating a period of 1-5 years together with the low-level equatorial westerlies both As a preliminary result strong equatorial upwellingshyextending from West Africa to the Philippines and ie an intensified north-hemisphere Hadley cell above restricted to the northern summer Each failure of the thePacific--seems

t~ coincide with droughts in NE-Brazil

1

i) EtNino El Nino Seca middotSea-Ievel Runoff DroughtI

~ ~ac if Ie ~eru-Ecuado~NEmiddotBrazr~ tr Chad NHAswcl- jIndia (N 17f~

~ I

1910 I

I1920 I

---- shy-1930

t ~ 1 shyr ---_(

middot1940 --

1950 -I

i bull I

1960

I I

I

PlpN2 SynopsiIotQimatlc AIlomaliel In equatorial NaJO II

108 THI PHYIICAL BAlli 0 CLINATB AND CLIMATB MODBLLING

~) r

L Chadt - I I m( LAKE CHAD

I

aahreltGhaZal

Nile-Awan~

10middot10Om3

9

7

I I

1850 60 70 80 90 1900 10 20 30 ItO 50 60 70 Pi 3 CIiIIIatio PluctuatioDi (Lab and amr Dm) iD Tropical Mrkt aiDot 18so

(maxima)-j

~

v

~

1rl

~

V

6

LAKE VICTOR IA (Jan)

I I

RUDOLF (annual)

5 J

3

2

l Victoria 3m

12

1

Brazil (4 9) and with weak monsoon rains in the Indo-Mrican region

In addition to the climatic anomalies of this time-scale there exists another type of climatic fluctuation (12 13) The most important example is the wide-spread decrease of precipitation and the lowering oflake levels in Eastern and Central Mrica around 1899 (Fig 3) as well as the limited return to the higher level of the 19th century around 1960 (12) during this period Lake Victoria (68000 kml) rose in one and a half years by more than 2 meters retaining this high level with minor fluctuations to 1972 Similar long-term changes can also be seen in the frequency of large-scale weather patterns above Great Britain (14) especially during the cool season November March

In order to extend the three-dimensional averaged temperature trends given by Starr and Oort (IS) annual

averages of the 5001000 mb thickness above the northern latitudes are Biven for the 25-year period 1949-1973 ~g4) derived from monthly averaged daily maps of

the German Weather Service (16 17) Values are given for the polar cap (lat 6S-90degN) and for a zone extending to mid-latitudes (S0-90degN) within the limits of standardishyzation of radiosondes this series is homogenous The general decrease of temperature (IS) during the period 1958-63 is by no means to be extrapolated The record demonstrates a discontinuity around 1963 possibly corshyrelated with the eruption of the Agung volcano at Bali in March 1963 The difference between the partial average 1949-62 and 1963-73 amounts for the polar cap to 111 gpm equivalent to -056 C and for the larger area 50-90

oN to -94 gpm = 047 C The average

interannual variation amounts (for the polar cap with an area near 27 middot10 kmll) to 67 gpm == 034 C equivalent to an energy difference of nearly 2 terawatt this value can probably be interpreted as a result of the varying extenshysion of snow-cover (18) and of the thickness of sea-ice

The physical background of this cooling which is restricted to arctic and subarctic latitudes is up to now unknownThe Iauthor has had the opportunity to

109 AlPENDIX 1 2

Annual Thickness 5001000 mb Deviations from20 yr Normal (1953-72)IS-gooN

I 1 bull A Egung rupt on

~

-- -r ~ Imiddot 1 n r-1 I I u I II

OON -shyOmiddot N

--a 65~ [J]a 50-9

Fisure Thickness 001000 mb Annual Averages rot 6$-90oN and 0-900 N mid-latitudes

observe during a flight in July 1964 across the centre of the polar cold vortex (then above Baffinland) a quite unusual stratospheric dust layer with a clearly visible lower boundary at the tropopause and with definitely reduced horizontal and slant visibility High turbidity values (JJ up to 030) have been measured at about this

- time above the south pole (19) During the summers of 1970 and 1972 the author again observed in latitudes 78-8soN a (now gradually weaker) stratospheric haze layer above a dust-free troposphere in summer 1973 only faint residuals of this haze could still be seen From this very scanty evidence the isolated cooling of the arctic during the last decade (20 Fig 38p 44) may perhaps be interpreted as at least partly caused by the concentra- I tion of volcanic dust in the arctic stratosphere due to a rather permanent convergence of the circulation of the lower stratosphere (21) Furthermore in the arctic the lack of isentropic mass exchange between troposphere and stratosphere through the tropopause gap (which is a regular feature in the jet stream region of middle and subtropical latitudes) may lead to a prolongation of the residence time of the dust particles in the lower polar strat9sphere estimated to be about 3 yean instead of tittJ- morethaD one)ear iD middle latitudea~ bull

The varying intensity of the polar cold vortices appears to be responsible for the varying degree of meridionalizashytion of the mid-latitude westerlies ie the varying role of the stationary eddies in the meridional transport processhyses Two contrasting circulation types are well-known in the belt of extra tropical westerlies high-index circulashytion with eastward moving vortices and low-index cirshyculation with large-scale quasi-stationary meridional flow patterns here including Willetts (22) high-index type in low lattitudes The latter type is characterized by large-scale standing eddies extending with diagonal troughs near 200 mbs far into the tropics (23) and leading to an increased frequency of extreme and unusual weather situations (24) These circulation anomalies are only imperfectly understood further empirical investigations and model computations are needed It should be mentioned that in antarctic and subantarctic latitudes some evidence has been found for marked cooling during the last century especiany between 1840 and 1880 (25) During that time giant table icebergs emerged from the Filchner ice-shelf in the southern Atlantic their residues reached even lat 34-35deg5 Probably such events must be interpreted as the reult of a (moderate) surge of the antarctio ice (15

1975

110 THe PHYSICAL BASIS OF CLIMATE AND CLIMATe MODELLING

2 TIME-SCALE OF CLIMATIC FLUCTUATIONS (epochs in which the polar regions were glaciated Non-The time-scale of climatio fluctuations extends from a instrumental daily records exist since about 1330 their

few years to loa years Manley (27) has proposed dif- evaluation together with historical evidence from annual ferent scales extending from the short period covered by data (freezing and thawing of lakes phenological and instrumental observations (about 300 year) to the tree-ring data) gives a fairly reliable extension of our longest scale of about 2S doa years separating geological knowledge back to about 1000 AD (cf Table 1) Imiddot middot1

i

TABLE 1

Historical Cllmat~ Data from C~lIIral England (Lamb)

(a) Temperature (C) and Precipitation (Deviation from 100 yr average)

Period shy

WI (11-1)

TemperatUlt

~ Su (1-8) Year

Year

~ecipllatio i

Su (1-8) Othe setUolU

1J5Q-13oo 1600-1700 1900-1950

I

i 415 315 42

I 167

i 15 35 158

1015 875 94

+3V

0 -3V

-15 +6 +2 -90 --3middot 0

I

Atlanticum (--4000 Be)

52 178 110 +100 (+15) +7

Standard deviation 128 096 056

(6) RelatiYe Frequency of Winds from Nand B (lanuary) ~

1560-1609 540 1720-1799 20 161610-1679 390 1800-1899

1680-1719 480 1900-1959 18middot

1560-1719 410 (158 months) 1720-1959 180 (240 months)

From this evidence short and longer periods of quite abnormal character can be derived One of the most interesting features is the unusually stable warm epoch in the early middle age from about 900 until 1200 AD (28) During this epoch the Viking groups emigrated from Norway to Iceland in their small open boats settled in

Greenland (on the economic base of sheep grazing) and investigated Labrador up to Newfoundland These historical events are only understandable under much more genial climatic conditions no report is given of drifting ice in the Denmark Strait and in southern Greenland the dead were buried in what is now permashyfrost With this mild quiet climate contemporaneous reports on occasional ice at Venice Istanbul and even the Nile are difficult to understand From 1200 to 1550 several short periods with quite unusual anomalies occurred especially during the winter 13223 when merchants crossed the completely frozen Baltic not only from Rostock to Copenhagen but also from Riga to Gotland and Stockholm thismiddot unique event would not have been possible in the very cold winters 1939-42 and incemiddot A series of quite rare and extreme weather phe

nomena has been observed between 1428 and 1442 (29 30) The onset of the so-called Little Ice Age between 1560 and about 1640 was a period of very frequent blocking anticyclones over Europe with prevailshying SE winds near Copenhagen and NE winds near London (Table 1) and with a remarkable cooling and wide-spread glacier advances This period reached two peaks around 1690 and especially after 1780 (partly up to 1850) when the arctic sea-ice used to block Icelandic coasts during half a year or even longer (30 31) (Fig 5) The extension of the arctic sea-ice has varied during the last milIenium by more than 20 there is some evidence that its thickness has also varied by some 20 due to the varying physical parameters (32 33) On the other side a good correlation between large volcanic eruptions and glacier advances in North America and Europe has been found recently (34) (Fig 6) According to Fair~ bridge (35) the coincidence of eustatic sea level variashytions - Rottnest transgression +80 em (800 -+ 1000 AD) Paria regression -200 cm (1200 -+ 1500 AD)shyWith global temperature variations seems to indicate substantial changes ofthe mass budget ofexisting glaciers

111 APPENDIX 11

20 2

1 10

800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 AD Figure 5 Duration (In weeks) of Ice Blocking the Coasts of Iceland (Koch 1945)

Abundant archaeological palaeobotanical and geoloshy tical evaluation of palaeontological data (eg frequency gical evidence is available during the last 10middot years of foraminifera shells) yields trustworthy temperature including subtropical and tropical sites evidence data (36) Similar evaluation of tree-rings (37) and from ocean bottom cores and icecores can be fairly pollen profiles (38) also yields sufficiently reliable reliably dated and evaluated back to lO years Statis- information~

bull bull I l

20

i 10 +

Maxi mum Glaci er Ad va nces (Bray)

r-shyroo Volcanic Oust Vei I Index (Lamb)

roshy1-

0lt

-- ~

-- shy rshy- J

roo-shy~ - I I -- -

roshy -

--shy

fshy- shyI

r-shyo

1800 19001500

1600 1700

3000

-00

1000

~ I

figure 6 Number or Muimum Glacior AdVlnCU ~orthem HomipbOnl and Volcanic Dust Veil Index linco UOO AD

112 THB PHYSICAL BASIS OP CLIMATB AND CLIMATE MODELLING

In remarkable contrast to most earlier textbook ideas dating and of the temperature calibration of the isotopic the initial transition between glacial and interglacial changes has been given by Dansgaard (41) The sudden periods each with a length of approximately 10 years outbreak of Younger Dryas caused regional surge~ devasshyappears to happen within a shott time - of the order of tating full-grown forests wholesale near Lake Michigan 10 years only (39) Assuming an annual accumulation and elsewhere accompanied by a cooling of 6degC The of 30 cm water equivalent the formation of a 1600 m duration of this sub-period - including the two transishythick ice-sheet would need more than 5000 years The tion periods at the beginning and end - was not more disappearance ofthe North American ice dome occupied than 600 years (40) These events are at least felt in the about 8000 years from 14500 to 6500 BP (Before Mediterranean this seems to indicate an intensity of Present) nevertheless the Iarae-scale climatic shift quasi-hemispheric temperature changes on the ocoer of (Pig 7) occurred within a few centuries During this OOSCyr as compared to about 001 Cyr during the

period 1900-60 because of the smoothing due to mole-o O cular diffusion (41) this is probably a minimum value

Several other short-lived events of this magnitude have been recently detected around 38000 BP 70000 BP and 90000 BP During the oldest event the climate changed within 100 years or less (almost instantaneshyously) (42) in Greenland from warmer than today to full glacial severity This sudden event has also been

found (Fig 8) in a French cave (43) and in a series of cores from the Gulf of Mexico (44) At about the same time abrupt cooling has been evidenced from peat bogs in Macedonia and in the Netherlands (45) and multiple

r evidence exists for a sudden sea-level rise at the North I American east coast and at Bermuda (46) possibly caused by an antarctic ice surge Within the errors of I dating these events are simultaneous

Another ofthese sudden events (near 55000 BP) initiated tbe Wilrm I glaciation with a duration of about 15000 years in the other four cases the cool periods appear to

r have lasted less than 2000-3000 years This time-span is certainly insufficient to form the large continental iceshy

sheets of the northern continents nevertheless such events (abortive glaciations) are of highest interest for the meteorologist Before A T Wilson (47) published his fascinating hypothesis regarding possible surges of the antarctic ice-sheet geologists and climatologists considered the beginning and end of an ice age as quite a slow process lasting about 10middot years (according to the orbital variations) thus hardly detectable within a human life-span This concept must now be revised (39) increasshying evidence for the dramatic character of such climatic

events has been presented during the last few years Five recession a well-known sequence of quite opposite events of this sort during 100000 years have been quoted climates was observed B0Uing Interstadial (warm) _ with sufficient evidence from several far distant sites Older Dryas Period (cold) _ Allered Interstadial (warm) indicating their hemispheric (or better global) character _ Younger Dryas Period (cold) _ final farming These Two or three others are evidenced on one site only the two full eYries (with an annual temperature amplitude up time interval between these events appears to be irregular to 6degC) spread over less than 2000 years (40) The on the order of 10000-20000 years Alleroo warm period coincided with the quite abrupt Events of this kind may also be the background of the environmental change after the last (Wurm-Wisconsin) widespread mythical recollections ofdeluge Disregarding glaciation at about 10800 BP occurring in a time-span such dim recollections from the very dawn of our preshyof 300 yean (or less) A careful reviewiof tho accura~yori ( historic past meteorologists are confronted as amatter

I 1

70

80

120 NAmerito Glocier

_10) 1real rs _ 1P--_

a c

Figure 7 Isotopic OImiddotVariations in a N Greenland leo Core sineo 130000 years (Danssaard 1972)

113 APPBNDIX 12

I 180 -Isotope middot1Cool Weather Faunai

I

9 0 r--r--r----r-I

l

03

BP

90

-40 35

bull 1

Imiddot

I I

a) Camp Century tce Core b) Sta(agmi te Orgnac c) Gulf of Mexico (22-240 N)

Figure 8 Evidence for sudden global cooling from N Greenland from a French cave and rrom Gulf of Mxico boltom cores

offact with dramatic perhaps even catastrophic climatic events and with the inherent problem of their rational geophysical interpretation In the larger time-scale the almost-intransitivity of our climate appears to be a wellshyestablished fact (39 48) and no longer a hypothesis

The physical mechanism of such short-lived natural events - which could be certainly disastrous from the view point ot human welfare - is hardly understood An unorthodox and speculative model taking into

att4uot only in~~al (geophysical) parameters has

I I

recently been proposed as a base for future discusshysions (39) Obviously the short time-scale of these events (if it can be confirmed by more reliable methods of timing) substantially reduces the role of the orbital variations (Milankovich effects) which has mesmerized two generations of ea rt h scientists From the oneshydimensional Manabe-Wethcrald radialian model (49) it can be concluded that the albedo variations during proshyminent climatic variaiivVl$ arc in equilibrium with tbe surface temperature (Table 2)

l bull

TABLE 2 SlIrGce AlbetJo (G) Gild Equilibrium Tempmtllln (Tmiddot) DpGtlonl

(areas in 10 Itmgt

~ i

Albedo

Oca~ ope I ICfl 00 ~70

COlllillelltl I 1 opt Ice IMW

01 01$ 030

Average DtIlalio albedo a T (eK)

Rflmariu

N He~isphere S Hemisphere Earth (E)

14 10 190 16

33S 26

70 I 3 27 33 IJ 3

103 (r ~ 1 16 30

01294 -shy 01384 01339 ~ actual

(1901-0)

Model NHO ModeI5HO

142

13 188

18 70 3 27 33 J3

3

01373 -095

01434 -060 N Hemis 1890 5 Hemis 180

Model B

Model B5 1

Model SH 3 bull I

t

J 317 30) 307 40

165 I if

I

I

108 9middot i i13 33

J 1 f

01731 -46

01860 t -62 02022

-76

I

I

Ice age (sea level -1~m) Wilson surge

t

114 THB PHYSICAL BASIS OP CLIMATE AND CLIMATE MODELLING

3 EXTREME CLIMATIC PATIERNS DURING L Chad (52raquo - have been much more humid In addishyTIlE LAST 105 YEARS tion to fossil pollen evidence and high lake levels (includshy

ing equatorial East Africa) archeological evidence should Some progress has been made to map past climates be mentioned - eg the existence of a sewage system in

from an amount of more or less precise data (CLIMAPshy the centre of the Indus Culture Mohenjo Daro in an area techniques allow numericalprogramme) Statistical a with now less than 200 mmyr rainfall

interpretation of the frequency distribution of fossil According to unpublished investigations (based onpollen or foraminifera in climatic terms The first results

statistical evaluations of pollen records) by R Bryson of these studies look quite promising - one of the great the amount of monsoon rain in the Tharr desert (naturally problems is the reliability of dating even of relative Ii IiinidbullbullorJ) eroftiod during (hlt porlod trom aboudating og 111 radiocarboll year beeaulo ot tho many 200 mm (present value) to 600-800 mm an amountsources of error sufficient to nourish elephants gazelles and cattle as

Some authors (mostly non-meteorologists) have tried depicted in the old artifacts At least two sudden deteshyto find cycles in their data - tree-ring chronology ice riorations of climate happened between 1500 and about cores pollen profiles etc Up to now no really conshy 200 BC it is impossible hereto enter into the somewhat vincing evidence for regularly recurrent cycles in the confusing and apparently still controversial details Onetime-scale between 10 and several loa years has been of the most interesting facts is the Ptolemean Calenshypresented It therefore seems inappropriate to use such der (53) valid most probably for Lower Egypt indicating cycles as a base for dating the occurrence of rains and thunderstorms during sum-

The present climatic pattern has little changed since mer which are now extremely rare events Unfortunately the beginning of instrumental observations - unforshy only a few historians (54 55) are at present interested in tunately our information on the time variations of the the role ofclimatic changes for old civilizations (including extension of the arctic sea-ice before about 1910 (and of the great migrations in Europe and other continents) our the sub-antarctic ice even now) is quite scanty Regarding scarce knOWledge could certainly be improved if the the arctic sea-ice with its strong feedback on climate its available information on agricultural and economic largest extension into the Atlantic probably occurred variations were collected and critically examined around 1780 The minimum extension around 4500 BPshy During the maximum of the last glaciation (about as evidenced by Siberian driftwood along the northern 18000 BP) North America Europe and parts of Westernshores of Greenland and Ellesmere-Land and the vegetashy Siberia were heavily covered by ice as well as manytion history of Siberia (50) - can be estimated to be mountains in aU other latitudes The lowering of thehardly greater than 4-5middot 10amp km nowadays its size varies snow-line shows a general decrease of tropospheric temshyfrom 7 (September) to 12 (March) 108 km It is certainly peratures by 5-6degC while in the vicinity of the glaciers an over-simplification to speak of an open arctic or a temperature drops of 12-15degC are restricted to low levels uice-covered arctic obviously several intermediate indicating the frequent occurrence of strong inversions quasi-stationary stages exist lasting several centuries But The strong cooling is also valid for western Franceduring the last 130000 years there exists no evidence (from northern Spain and southern Ireland around the Sea ofbottom cores) (51) for an ice-free central part of the Arctic Biscay (56) there is now sufficient evidence for extension Ocean especially not during a glaciation Because of the of the arctic sea-ice here and in the central Atlantic to strong temperature contrast during winter we should 1at 43-44degN A drop of the ocean surface temperature expect in this hypothetical case a much different distribushy by 5_6deg in the Caribbean and other parts of the tropical tion of ice around the fiat arctic shores which in fact Atlantic seems to be certain (in spite of some difficulties inhave been (and still are) rather dry interpreting the isotopic changes of the 0 18018 ratio

During the post-glacial optimum (Atlanticum hypsishy cf 57) In contrast to the Atlanf sector the Pacific thermal about 6000-4000 BP) most glaciers in the Alps sector was much less affected -- here the temperature and in similar mid-latitude mountains had disappeared anomalies reach only 2-3degC in the tropics and about 5degC andthe boreal forest extended at least 300 km farther to in middle latitudes with a relatively modest extension the north (SO) At many places in sub-arctic and temshy of the mountain glaciation It is now certain that during prate latitudes temperatures were 2-3degC higher than this peak the subtropical and tropical belt was substanshytoday in most cases together with higher rainfall tially more arid than now - the equatorial rain-forests ~fable J) During the even longer period between about of Africa and South America were reduced to a few spots ilSOO and 3500 BP large parts of the arid areas ofthe Old with high orographic rainfall The causes of this arid World - from Rajasthan across the Middle East towards phase have been found in the lowering of ocean surface the northern and 8O~crn fringes oftho Sabara (includipg temperatures together with a reduction of the ocean

bull

APPBNDlX 1 2 11$

surface (today from 71 to about 67-68) together TABLE 3middot Differences ampmSGngamon Inlerglaclal- AClual Cllmale with a eustatic sea-level drop of 85-100 m

(Frenzel 1961)The moist pluvial period in the subtropical areas of

Africa and Asia seems to coincide with the Allerd January July Yeai PreCipitationYounger Dryas fluctuation around 11000 BP - a

+1-1C +1-3C +1-3Cperjod of extremely strong variations of climate and Dpe1nmdarkbullkN-rmany i bullbull f Ii loan u ram +1-4 +2-3 +1-3 + 50mm

veg~tatlon cover In a time-span 0 a ew centuries on y Bjelorussia central j

wit~ rapid coolings up to 6degC and a marked advance of USSR +5-10 +2-5 +4-7 +100 gla~ers in Scandinavia and in the Great Lake re~ion Western Siberia +4 +3 +3 +1007 __________+here deiltr9yina wholampIlI fLillajJr9wn fQrd Most ~_n_t_r_I_S_ib_e_ria _____ lakes in northern and eastern Africa (58 59) reached W Alaska Banks III +4-5 + 7 their highest level between 12000 and 9000 BP the Near Toronto +3-4 +2 +1-4 +200-250 maximum glaciation of Mexican volcanoes (60) appa- -------------------- shyrentJy coincides with that period and not with the arid phase of the glacial maximum The glaciated area of the inconsistent with these observations but the time-scale northern continents was reduced by some 50 in Europe of these bottom cores is quite uncertain but much less in North America the sea-level was still The climate of the EemSangamom was probably

near --40 m with Bering Strait closed somewhat warmer than that of the post-glacial optimum In several regions of South America (and Africa) The evidence for its duration seems to be still somewhat

evidence exists for a cooling up to 8-lOoC or even more controversial the duration of the warm periods covers perhaps only during a relatively short period of the order only 10 of the last several 10 years (63) and the end of a few miUenia This is true for the Itatiaya near Rio of the present interglacial should be (64) very near at de Janeiro for Columbia Costa Rica and the southern hand (ie in a few millenia perhaps only centuries) coast ofSouth Africa evidence for an extended glaciation This hypothesis - which is certainly not beyond any of the eastern Patagonian lowlands is still somewhat doubt - enforces the need to investigate with the help controversial (61) It is at present inappropriate to enter of physico-mathematical models (65 66) the climatic into the world-wide discussion of the details of this variations of this long period~ period - it may be sufficient to state that several global and rapid climatic fluctuations occurred between about 72000 BP and 10000 BP In an earlier glaciation (before 120000 BP) similar evidence has been presented for Japan the subtropical parts of China and the Nepal Himalaya (here perhaps biased by differential tectonic movements) together with a eustatic drop of sea-level of 130-145 m indicating a 50 increase of the ice volume compared with the last (Warm or Wisconsin) ice age

Between about 120000 and 72000 BP several pro- longed periods with an interglacial climate occurred (Eem resp Sangamom) interrupted by a catastrophic cooling near 90000 BP During these warm periods the vegetation history shows unambiguous evidence for bullbull~--~a~~~H~middot--~)~$middot~--~4~O~--7s~~c substantially higher temperatures in large areas of the II TshyUSSR as well as of North America (Table 3) This bullbull indicates at least a recession of the arctic sea-ice from the FleuR Position ofsubtropical anticyclones () versus meridional coasts of Siberia and from the Canadian Archipelago temperature ditTercnce (AT) ill the 3001700 mb layer

monthly values for northern and lOuthern hemisphereHowever a completely ice-free Arctic Ocean should be (Korff-Flohn 1968) accompanied - if we extrapolate the actual correlation (Fig 9) between the latitude of the subtropical antishy

Further evidence of the climate of the past 10 yearscyclones and the tropospheric temperature difference bas been collected and evaluated in a recent report (67)(300700 mb) EquatorPole (62) - by it remarkable ot the US GARP Committee poleward shift of all climatic belts reaching even beyond

the equator The evidence for no climatic change in It should be mentioned that according to recent invesshyarctic bottom corea (51) during that timo is apparently tigation the climate o( Mars bas also changed between

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1I6 THB PHYSICAL BASIS OF CLIMATE AND CLIMATE MODBLUNG

the actual state of an ice age and another type of climate cycle with (observed) fluvial erosion intropica1 latitudes where with much highe~ COl Jressure ahydroJogical had been developed (68)

(

APPENDIX ENERGETICS OP GLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGES

Since at present no mathematical model allows a sufficiently realistic simulation of global climatic change it would be advisable to estimate the energetics of characshyteristic features of climatic variation The main objeci would be a numerical comparison of natural and manshymade (anthropogenic) eflecta Here we must distinguish

bullmiddotTABLB4 poundItt 0EMttc ofiII-Setll4t CIIMtle Changes (revised arier 48)

I r 1 j t It i ~ I ~ J j bullbull

A ExternalParamelerl (Terawatt(1()lIW)11- ~ ~ ) t

Solar constant bull bull bull bull bullbull 173000 340bull bull bull bull gt(~ bull Input earth + atmosphere bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bullbull bull bull bullbull 123000 241 I

Net radiation earth lurface bull i - ~ I bullbull 52 000 v 102 Geothermalheat bullbull bull bullbull bull bullbullbullbull ~ bullbull ~ ] +32 bull 0063 Volcanic dust stratosphere radiation middotdeficit bull tmiddot bullbull I bullbull 100-300 j bull bull

Antarctic Ice surges (iocl melting) bull bullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbull bullbull bullbull 50-100 per lOS kml~ tmiddot

B Internal Parameter (with non-liDear feedback) if

Absorption in the atmosphero bull bull bull bull bull bull bullbull 45 000 Production of available pot energy bull bull bull bull ~ Change of cloudiness (I) bull bull t bullbull

Change or evaporation equat oceans (10middot10 kml) bull Photosynthetic processes (after 69) bullbull bull bull bull bull Change ohnow cover (12 after II) bull bull bull bull bull Change of arctic sea-ice area bull bull bull bull bull bull

C Anthropogenic Ptlrameter

Increase of CO bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bullbull Energy production bull bull bull bull bull Savannah bushfires direct heat input Tropospheric dust industry cities bull Tropospheric dUst vegetation destruction Water consumption (evaporated) bull bull bullbull

between effects which alter significantly the heat budget of the total earth surface or of the troposphere and those which lead to a redistribution ofenergy onl) An example is givenby the conversion of humid forest into cropland during which the flux of latent heat ia partly replaced by that of sensible heat~ bull 1 lt

bull bull bull bull 1 200 ~ i bull bull bull bull 3SO

bullbull bull bull bull ~ 300 bull bull j bullbullbull ~ 192 bull bull 110

bull ~ 50 per cent 10 kml

i 1970

i

WmIWobal)

88 24

067 059 018

022

2000

+15 TW 3 mWml +24 TWCD

bull bull bull +8 TW - J5 i +40 TW bull bull bull bull bull +3 TW - 6

bull +17 TW - 3 +25 TW bull bull bull bull bull +5 10 6

bull bull bull bull +140 TW - 270 raquo +390TW Cooverslon of tropical rainmiddotforest ioto cropland (change of heat budpt) bull bull -17 TW per 10middot Icml

Table 4 (enlarged and partly revised after Ref 48) presents a few tentative results of these estimates The difference between the effects of antarctic ice surges and the variable extension of arctic sea-ice is based on the melting heat which must be included at the surging ice from the antarctic ice-dome The originally given (48) very high estimate (2000 TW) for the role of volcanic dust-veils as derived from measurements of depletion of solar radiation after Krakatoa seems to be substantially too high because of the neglect of forward Mie scattering A general cooling of the atmosphere by ldegCyear - as typically observed in the first 1-2 years after a Jarge explosive eruption - up to the 100 mb level would yield a loss of internal energy of 207 Lyyr equivalent to 031S Wattml or 161 terawatt for the whole earth from this viewpoint tho estimatemiddot sJiould be reduced by ono

order of magnitude Considering the impact of hyposhythetical natural dramatic events possibly triggering a new glaciation such as discussed in (39) it can be estimated to reach the level of 1000 TW during a time-span of the order of 100 years

The role of increased evaporation (derived from Ref 20 Table 76 page 178) demonstrates the enormous role of the variations of the hydrologic cycle in climatic energetics It surpasses aU other man-made effects howshyever t it leads in substance only to a redistribution of energy The same is true for some of the internal parashymeters (with non-linear feedback into other climatoshygenetic processes) As an example photosynthesis (69) leads only to a time-depcndent storage of energy most or whichwil1 be released by biological decay processes

117 INDIX12 t

A tentative conclusion can be formulated as follows 1) Natural climatogenetic processes producing globalshy scale climatic changes are produced by an energy loss

or surplus of the order of 100-300 terawatt This looks reasonable when compared with the mean annual dissipation of kinetic energy between lat 100 S and 900 N (expected to be equal to the mean producshytion of available potential energy) of 20 W 1mmiddot (70) equivalent to little more than 1000 TW

2) Man-made climatogenetic processes contribute much less energy at present The total amount can now be estimated to about 16 TW (including the direct release of fossil and nuclear energy of nearly 8 TW) at any rate less than 20 TW since the savannah bushshyfires are to some extent included in the biological decay processes

3) Since the release of fossil and nuclear energy will further rise exponentially as a consequence of many

- unavoidable economic and social processes at least during the next 1-2 generations we have to expect that within the second third of the next century manshymade climatosenetic processes will reach tho sarno level as the natural factors If due attention is given to the role of absorption of solar radiation by troshypospheric dust the bulk of anthropogenic processes lead to tropospheric warming while the natural factors produce in tum warming and cooling

I Lorenz E 1968 Meteor Monogr Am Meteor Soc 30 1-3

2 AJlison L J 1ft 121 1971 Goddard Space Flight Center Preshyprint X-651-71-191

3 Doberitz R 1ft III 1967 and 1968 Bonner Meteoroiosischo Abhandlunpn 7 and 8

4 Doberitz R 1969 Bonner Meteorologische Abhandlunshypn 11

Wetherald R T and Manabe S 1972 Monthly Weather Review 10042-59

6 Flohn H 1972 In Studies in Physical Oceanography (G Wiist on his 80th birthday) Vol I 93-101

7 Bjerknes J 1969 Monthly Weather Review 97 163-172

8 Rowntrec P R 1972 Quart Journ Roy Meteor Soc 98 290-321

9 Caviedes C N 1973 Proc Assoc Am Geographen 44-49

10 Winstanley D 1973 Nature 24 190-194

11 Fiohn H bullbull 1964 Bonner Meteorologische Abhandlungen 4

11 Kraus J 195 Quart Journ Roy Meteor Soc II 198-210

13 Lamb H H 1966 Geogr JOllrn 131 183-112

14bull Lamb H H 1972 Geophys Memoirs (London) 116

U Starr V P and Oort A H 1973 Nature 242 310-313

16 Dronia H Meteor Rundschau (in press)

17 Deutscher Wctterclicnst Die Grosswetterlapn Buropas (MOo natlbericbt) 1949-1973 bull

18 KllkIa 91 ucI KllkI Hl 197~ Science 183 7~ I

19 Viebrock H and Flowers E G 1968 TelluS 20 400-411 ~

20 SMICmiddotReport 1971 Inadvertent Climate Modification MITmiddotPress

21 Hesstvedt E 1964 Geofys Publ Vol 2 No3

22 Willett H C and Sanders F 1959 Descriptive Meteorology 2nd edition pp 185-195

23 Flohn H 1971 Bonner MeteorologischeAbhandlunpn 15

24 Japan Meteorological Agency 1974 Report on a Study of Unusual Weather and Climatic Trend in the World and Out look for the Future

25 Orheim 01972 Ph D Dissertation Ohio Slate University

26 Lamb H H 1967 WMO Techn Note 87428-437

27 Manley G 1953 Quart Journ Roy Meleor Soc 79185-207

28 Lamb H H 196 Palaeopography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology I 13-37

29 Flohn H in Rudloff H v 1967 Schwankurtgen und Penshydelungen des Klimas seit Beginn der replmAssiacn IDluushymentenbcobachtunpn (1670)

30 Lamb H H 1974 Endeavour 33 40-47

31 Lamb H H 1971 Climate Past P nt and Future 32 Maykut O A and Unterateiner N 1971 Joum Geophya

Research 76 1550-1575

33 Egorov K L 1ft til 1974 Boundary-Layer Meteorology 6middot 169-182

34 Bray J R 1974 Nature 248 No bull 5443 42-43

3 Fairbridp R W 1961 In Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 4 99-185

36 Imbrie J and Kipp N G 1971 In K Turcldan Late Cenozoic Glacial Ages 71-191

37 Fritts H C Blasing T J Hayden B P and Kutzbach J E 1971 Journ Appl Meteor 10 845-864

38 Webb T and Bryson R A 1972 Quaternary Research 2 70-115

39 Flohn H 1974 In Proc Polar Climate Conference Fairshybanlts Alaska 15-17 Aug 1973 Quaternary Research 4 in print

40 Mercer J H 1969 Arctic and Alpine Research 1227-234

41 bull Dansgaard W 1ft 121 1973 Meddel om Greniand Vol 197bull No2

42 Dansgaard W et III 1972 Quaternary Researcb 2296-298

43 Duplessy J C et 01bullbull 1971 Quaternary Research f162-174

44 Kennett J P and Huddiestun P 1971 Quaternary Roshysearch 2 384-395

45 Van der Hammen T 1ft 01 1971 In K Tureldan Late CenLzoic Glacial Ages 391-424 Lo

46 Hollin J T 1972 Quaternary Research 2 401-408

47 Wilson A T 1964 Nature 201 147-149

48 Flohn H 1973 Vortrllge Rhein WcstflU Ak Wiss N 234 75-117 Bonner Meteorologische Abhandlungen 19

49 ManabeS and Wetherald R T1967 Joum Atmol Sci 24 241-159

O Frenzel B 1967 Die Klimuchwankungen del Eiszeitalten

51 HunkiDl K 86 A W H bullbull Opdyke N D and Matthew G 1971 In K Turekian Tho Late Cenozoic Oladal ASCI

TH8 PHYSICAL BASIS 0 CLlMATB AND CLiMATB MODELLING 118

52 Maley J 1973 Palaeolr Patacoclim Palaeoecology 14 193-227

53 Brooks C E P 1949 Climate Through tho Ages (2nd edishytion) 333-335

54 Lamb H H 1968 Advancement or Science 103-120

55 Carpenter R bullbull 1966 Discontinuity or Greek Civilization

56 Flohn H 1969 Biszeitalter und Gegcnwart 20 204-23 I

57 Emilianl C 1971 In K Turckian Late Cenozoic Qlacial Agea 183-197

58 Butzer K W Recent History or an Ethiopian Delta Rei 11bullbull UI 1gt1bull bull t Otitlilr Vft r Ghl

59 Butzer K W Isaac G L Richardson J L and Washbum-Kamau C 1972 Science 175 1069-1076

60 Heine K 1973 Eiazeitaller and Ocpnwart 23lt66-62

61 CDjJca W 1951 Oeol RwuIIclh 45 6~6

f2 lCor8 H a PloD Hbullbull ADD M_r~ NP 4 163-1 iI i I 1 bullbull i

~ II

1 I

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t

I j bull f

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63 Emiliani C 1972 Science 178 398-401

64 Kukla Gl Matthews R K and Mitchell Jr 1 M 1962 Quaternary Research 2261-269

65 Alyea J t 1972 Atmol Sci Paper 193 Dept Atm SC t Colorado Stato Univollit

66 Williams I Barry R G and Washington W W1974 lourn Appt Meteor IJbullbull

67 US Committee ror the GARP 1974 Understanding Climatic i Change A Program ror Action Nat Rea Council 1974

(notabl Appendill A pp 1790476)bull

68bull Sagan C Tool O B and Oietascb Pl 1973 Science 181 1045-1049

69 Ueth H Zcitschr Angcw Botanik ~ (1972) 1-37 Human bull Ecolol1 I (1973) 303-lJ2 ~

70 Oort A H Ind Poixo~ I Pbullbullbull74bull lonaGlOph~bullbull il1 19(1974)2705-271

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107 APPENDIX 1 2

those of the Atlantic - here including the densely popushy monsoonal rainfall in N- and NE-India causes a weakshylated region of NE Brazil - a negative correlation has ening of the system with its highly effective high-troposhybeen found (4 9) probably caused by the varying posishy spheric divergence pattern above Africa (11) tion ot the warm anticyclone during southern summer Surprisingly enough recent (but preliminary) invesshyabove the western margins of the Amazonas basin the tigations seem to indicate frequent coincidences between typical season is January-April or May the anomalies of these two systems - the Indo-African

On the other side of the Atlantic the recurring droughts Monsoon and the Pacific-Atlantic Trades with equatorial in the Sudan-Sahel belt of Africa (from Ethiopia to upwelling - centered in a distance of nearly 1800 longishySenegal) occur nearly simultaneously with failures of the tude and developing in different seasons As a challenge monsoon raiDS in northern and central Indo-Pakisshy tor further investigations with statistical techniques tan (10) This can be interpreted as a resuJt ot the Figure 2 shows large and smaller deviations trom normal varying intensity of the large-scale monsoonal system in six areas the best examples are around 1899 1913 consisting of the tropical easterly jet near 150 mbs 1941 and 1972 each aggregating a period of 1-5 years together with the low-level equatorial westerlies both As a preliminary result strong equatorial upwellingshyextending from West Africa to the Philippines and ie an intensified north-hemisphere Hadley cell above restricted to the northern summer Each failure of the thePacific--seems

t~ coincide with droughts in NE-Brazil

1

i) EtNino El Nino Seca middotSea-Ievel Runoff DroughtI

~ ~ac if Ie ~eru-Ecuado~NEmiddotBrazr~ tr Chad NHAswcl- jIndia (N 17f~

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1975




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Period shy

WI (11-1)

TemperatUlt

~ Su (1-8) Year

Year

~ecipllatio i


1J5Q-13oo 1600-1700 1900-1950

I

i 415 315 42

I 167

i 15 35 158

1015 875 94

+3V

0 -3V

-15 +6 +2 -90 --3middot 0

I


52 178 110 +100 (+15) +7



1560-1609 540 1720-1799 20 161610-1679 390 1800-1899

1680-1719 480 1900-1959 18middot

1560-1719 410 (158 months) 1720-1959 180 (240 months)




111 APPENDIX 11

20 2

1 10



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1600 1700

3000

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1000

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103 (r ~ 1 16 30

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(1901-0)

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142

13 188

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Model B

Model B5 1

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~ Su (1-8) Year

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1J5Q-13oo 1600-1700 1900-1950

I

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I 167

i 15 35 158

1015 875 94

+3V

0 -3V

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I


52 178 110 +100 (+15) +7



1560-1609 540 1720-1799 20 161610-1679 390 1800-1899

1680-1719 480 1900-1959 18middot

1560-1719 410 (158 months) 1720-1959 180 (240 months)




111 APPENDIX 11

20 2

1 10



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i 10 +



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3000

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113 APPBNDIX 12


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142

13 188

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01434 -060 N Hemis 1890 5 Hemis 180

Model B

Model B5 1

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Year

~ecipllatio i


1J5Q-13oo 1600-1700 1900-1950

I

i 415 315 42

I 167

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1015 875 94

+3V

0 -3V

-15 +6 +2 -90 --3middot 0

I


52 178 110 +100 (+15) +7



1560-1609 540 1720-1799 20 161610-1679 390 1800-1899

1680-1719 480 1900-1959 18middot

1560-1719 410 (158 months) 1720-1959 180 (240 months)




111 APPENDIX 11

20 2

1 10



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1800 19001500

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113 APPBNDIX 12


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13 188

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TABLE 1



Period shy

WI (11-1)

TemperatUlt

~ Su (1-8) Year

Year

~ecipllatio i


1J5Q-13oo 1600-1700 1900-1950

I

i 415 315 42

I 167

i 15 35 158

1015 875 94

+3V

0 -3V

-15 +6 +2 -90 --3middot 0

I


52 178 110 +100 (+15) +7



1560-1609 540 1720-1799 20 161610-1679 390 1800-1899

1680-1719 480 1900-1959 18middot

1560-1719 410 (158 months) 1720-1959 180 (240 months)




111 APPENDIX 11

20 2

1 10



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1600 1700

3000

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1000

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113 APPBNDIX 12


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142

13 188

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3

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01434 -060 N Hemis 1890 5 Hemis 180

Model B

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1 10



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1800 19001500

1600 1700

3000

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1000

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113 APPBNDIX 12


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(1901-0)

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142

13 188

18 70 3 27 33 J3

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Model B

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70

80


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113 APPBNDIX 12


I

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03

BP

90

-40 35

bull 1

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01 01$ 030


Rflmariu


14 10 190 16

33S 26

70 I 3 27 33 IJ 3

103 (r ~ 1 16 30

01294 -shy 01384 01339 ~ actual

(1901-0)

Model NHO ModeI5HO

142

13 188

18 70 3 27 33 J3

3

01373 -095

01434 -060 N Hemis 1890 5 Hemis 180

Model B

Model B5 1

Model SH 3 bull I

t

J 317 30) 307 40

165 I if

I

I


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01731 -46

01860 t -62 02022

-76

I

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as 104

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I J


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i 1970

i

WmIWobal)

88 24

067 059 018

022

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117 INDIX12 t





































Research 76 1550-1575















47 Wilson A T 1964 Nature 201 147-149

















~ II

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113 APPBNDIX 12


I

9 0 r--r--r----r-I

l

03

BP

90

-40 35

bull 1

Imiddot

I I






I I


l bull


(areas in 10 Itmgt

~ i

Albedo



01 01$ 030


Rflmariu


14 10 190 16

33S 26

70 I 3 27 33 IJ 3

103 (r ~ 1 16 30

01294 -shy 01384 01339 ~ actual

(1901-0)

Model NHO ModeI5HO

142

13 188

18 70 3 27 33 J3

3

01373 -095

01434 -060 N Hemis 1890 5 Hemis 180

Model B

Model B5 1

Model SH 3 bull I

t

J 317 30) 307 40

165 I if

I

I


J 1 f

01731 -46

01860 t -62 02022

-76

I

I


t










bull

APPBNDlX 1 2 11$














as 104

I

I J


bullUI~~~~I~

bull



(


















i 1970

i

WmIWobal)

88 24

067 059 018

022

2000








117 INDIX12 t





































Research 76 1550-1575















47 Wilson A T 1964 Nature 201 147-149

















~ II

1 I

I I

t

I j bull f

~ L










~lllf~ i 11 1 1 1 ~~iJf-1 i J ~ I ( I 1

I i

- (

bull p










bull

APPBNDlX 1 2 11$














as 104

I

I J


bullUI~~~~I~

bull



(


















i 1970

i

WmIWobal)

88 24

067 059 018

022

2000








117 INDIX12 t





































Research 76 1550-1575















47 Wilson A T 1964 Nature 201 147-149

















~ II

1 I

I I

t

I j bull f

~ L










~lllf~ i 11 1 1 1 ~~iJf-1 i J ~ I ( I 1

I i

- (

bull p

bull



(


















i 1970

i

WmIWobal)

88 24

067 059 018

022

2000








117 INDIX12 t





































Research 76 1550-1575















47 Wilson A T 1964 Nature 201 147-149

















~ II

1 I

I I

t

I j bull f

~ L










~lllf~ i 11 1 1 1 ~~iJf-1 i J ~ I ( I 1

I i

- (

bull p

117 INDIX12 t





































Research 76 1550-1575















47 Wilson A T 1964 Nature 201 147-149

















~ II

1 I

I I

t

I j bull f

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I i

- (

bull p













~ II

1 I

I I

t

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~lllf~ i 11 1 1 1 ~~iJf-1 i J ~ I ( I 1

I i

- (

bull p

o · 2011. 6. 10. · the polar cold vortex (then above baffinland), a quite unusual stratospheric...

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