nyscoss conference superintendents training on assessment 9 14
DESCRIPTION
Training for 2nd and 3rd year NY state superintendents on assessments and data use - 9-21-14TRANSCRIPT
Andy Hegedus, Ed.D.
September 2014
From a Superintendent’s
Perspective: Using data wisely
• How many of you think your literacy with assessments is “Good” or better?
• How many of you have a fine tuned assessment program?
• How many of you think your practical knowledge about using data for systemic improvement is “Good” or better?
Trying to gauge my audience and adjust my speed . . .
• An adequate depth of knowledge to ask really good questions and the tenacity to do so
• A person willing to “Speak the Truth, With Love, To Power”
• A big lever – “What gets measured (and attended to),
gets done”
The measurement and reinforcement system is your responsibility
The Bottom Line First:Here’s what you must have
• Increase your understanding about various urgent assessment related topics– Ask better questions– Useful for making all types of decisions with
data
My Purpose
• Assessment basics +• Improving your assessment program• Data culture
Three main topics
• What we’ve known to be true is now being shown to be true– Using data thoughtfully improves student
achievement and growth rates– 12% mathematics, 13% reading
• There are dangers present however– Unintended Consequences
Go forth thoughtfullywith care
Slotnik, W. J. , Smith, M. D., It’s more than money, February 2013, retrieved from http://www.ctacusa.com/PDFs/MoreThanMoney-report.pdf
“What gets measured (and attended to), gets done”
Remember the old adage?
• NCLB– Cast light on inequities– Improved performance of “Bubble Kids”– Narrowed taught curriculum
The same dynamic happens inside your schools
An infamous example
It’s what we do that counts
A patient’s health doesn’t change because we know their blood pressure
It’s our response that makes all the difference
Be considerate of the continuum of stakes involved
Support
Compensate
Terminate
Increasing levels of required rigor
Incr
easi
ng r
isk
Assessment basics(in a teacher evaluation frame)
1. Alignment between the content assessed and the content to be taught
2. Selection of an appropriate assessment• Used for the purpose for which it was designed
(proficiency vs. growth)• Can accurately measure the knowledge of all students• Adequate sensitivity to growth
3. Adjust for context/control for factors outside a teacher’s direct control (value-added)
Three primary conditions
1. Assessment results used wisely as part of a dialogue to help teachers set and meet challenging goals
2. Use of tests as a “yellow light” to identify teachers who may be in need of additional support or are ready for more
Two approaches we like
Is the progress produced by this teacher dramatically different than teaching peers who deliver instruction to comparable students in comparable situations?
What question is being answered in support of
using data in evaluating teachers?
Marcus Normal Growth Needed Growth
Marcus’ growth
College readiness standard
The Test
The Growth Metric
The Evaluation
The Rating
There are four key steps required to answer this question
Top-Down Model
The Test
The Growth Metric
The Evaluation
The Rating
Let’s begin at the beginning
3rd Grade ELA
Standards
3rd Grade ELA
Teacher?
3rd Grade Social
Studies Teacher?
Elem. Art Teacher?
What is measured should be aligned to what is to be taught
1. Answer questions to demonstrate understanding of text….
2. Determine the main idea of a text….
3. Determine the meaning of general academic and domain specific words…
Would you use a general reading assessment in the evaluation of a….
~30% of teachers teach in tested subjects and gradesThe Other 69 Percent: Fairly Rewarding the Performance of Teachers of Nontested Subjects and Grades, http://www.cecr.ed.gov/guides/other69Percent.pdf
• Assessments should align with the teacher’s instructional responsibility– Specific advanced content
• HS teachers teaching discipline specific content – Especially 11th and 12th grade
• MS teachers teaching HS content to advanced students
– Non-tested subjects• School-wide results are more likely “professional
responsibility” rather than reflecting competence
– HS teachers providing remedial services
What is measured should be aligned to what is to be taught
• Many assessments are not designed to measure growth
• Others do not measure growth equally well for all students
The purpose and design of the instrument is significant
Let’s ensure we have similar meaning
Beginning
Literacy
Adult Reading
5th Grade x
x
Time 1 Time 2
StatusGrowth
Two assumptions:1. Measurement accuracy,
and2. Vertical interval scale
Accurately measuring growth
depends on accurately measuring
achievement
Questions surrounding the
student’s achievement level
The more questions the
merrier
What does it take to accurately measure achievement?
Teachers encounter a distribution of student performance
Beginning
Literacy
Adult Reading
5th Grad
e
x x xx
xx
xx
x
x
xx
x
xx
Grade Level Performance
Adaptive testing works differently
Item bank can span full range of achievement
How about accurately measuring height?
What if the yardstick stopped in the middle of his back?
Items available need to match student ability
California STAR NWEA MAP
How about accurately measuring height?
What if we could only mark within a pre-defined six inch range?
5th Grade Level Items
These differences impact measurement error
.00
.02
.04
.06
.08
.10
.12
Info
rmati
on
260190 200 210 220 230 240Scale Score
Fully Adaptive Test
Significantly Different Error
250
Constrained Adaptive or
Paper/PencilTest
To determine growth, achievement
measurements must be related through
a scale
If I was measured as:5’ 9”
And a year later I was:1.82m
Did I grow?Yes. ~ 2.5”
How do you know?
Let’s measure height again
Traditional assessment uses items reflecting the grade level standards
Beginning
Literacy
Adult Reading
4th Grade
5th Grade
6th Grade
Grade Level Standards
Traditional Assessment Item Bank
Traditional assessment uses items reflecting the grade level standards
Beginning
Literacy
Adult Reading
4th Grade
5th Grade
6th Grade
Grade Level Standards
Grade Level StandardsOverlap allows linking and scale construction
Grade Level Standards
• Think of a high stakes test – State Summative
– Designed mainly to identify if a student is proficient or not
• Do they do that well?• 93% correct on Proficiency determination
• Does it go off design well?• 75% correct on Performance Levels determination
Error can change your life!
*Testing: Not an Exact Science, Education Policy Brief, Delaware Education Research & Development Center, May 2004, http://dspace.udel.edu:8080/dspace/handle/19716/244
• Tests specifically designed to inform classroom instruction and school improvement in formative ways
No incentive in the system for inaccurate data
Using tests in high stakes ways creates new dynamic
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
Students taking 10+ minutes longer spring than fall All other students
New phenomenon when used as part of a compensation program
Mean value-added growth by school
When teachers are evaluated on growth using a once per year assessment, one teacher who cheats disadvantages the next teacher
Other consequence
• What were some things you learned?• What practices do you want to reinforce?• What do you need to do differently?
• Think – Pair– 2 min to make some notes– 3 min to share with a neighbor
Lessons?
Testing is complete . . . What is useful to answer our question?
The Test
The Growth Metric
The Evaluation
The Rating
The problem with spring-spring testing
4/14 5/14 6/14 7/14 8/14 9/14 10/14 11/14 12/14 1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15
Teacher 1 Summer Teacher 2
• When possible use a spring – fall – spring approach
• Measure summer loss and incentivize schools and teachers to minimize it
• Measure teacher performance fall to spring, giving as much instructional time as possible between assessments
• Monitor testing conditions to minimize gaming of fall or spring results
A better approach
Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 80
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
ReadingMath
The metric matters - Let’s go underneath “Proficiency”
Difficulty of New York Proficient Cut Score
Nat
iona
l Per
cent
ile
College Readiness
New York Linking Study: A Study of the Alignment of the NWEA RIT Scale with the New York State (NYS) Testing Program, November 2013
The metric matters - Let’s go underneath “Proficiency”
Dahlin, M. and Durant, S., The State of Proficiency, Kingsbury Center at NWEA, July 2011
Series1
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
10087
55
-31
Estimated Proficiency Rates For Six NY Districts4th Grade Mathematics
With Proficiency Cut Scores Changed
2012 2013 Reported Change
What actually happened?
Series1
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100 87
55
-31
Estimated Proficiency Rates For Six NY Districts
4th Grade MathematicsWith Proficiency Cut Scores
Changed
2012 2013Reported Change
What actually happened?
Series10
10
20
30
40
50
60
46
55
10
Estimated Proficiency Rates For Six NY Districts
4th Grade MathematicsWith 2013 Proficiency Cut
Scores Applied
2012 2013 Actual Change
Mathematics
No ChangeDownUp
Fall RIT
Num
ber o
f Stu
dent
sWhat gets measured and attended to
really does matter
Proficiency College Readiness
One district’s change in 5th grade mathematics performance relative to the KY proficiency cut scores
Mathematics
Below projected growthMet or above pro-jected growth
Student’s score in fall
Nu
mb
er o
f S
tud
ents
Number of 5th grade students meeting projected mathemat-ics growth in the same district
Changing from Proficiency to Growth means all kids matter
• What were some things you learned?• What practices do you want to reinforce?• What do you need to do differently?
• Think – Pair – Share– 2 min to make some notes– 3 min to share with a neighbor
Lessons?
How can we make it fair?
The Test
The Growth Metric
The Evaluation
The Rating
Without context what is “Good”?
Beginning Reading
Adult Literacy
Nati
onal
Pe
rcen
tile
Norms StudyScale
Colle
ge R
eadi
ness
Be
nchm
arks
ACT
Perf
orm
ance
Lev
els
State Test
“Meets”Proficiency
Perf
orm
ance
Lev
els
Common Core
Proficient
Normative data for growth is a bit different
Fall Score
Subject: Reading
Grade: 5th
7 points
FRL vs. non-FRL?
IEP vs. non-IEP?
ESL vs. non-ESL?
Outside of a teacher’s direct control
Starting Achievement
Instructional Weeks
Basic Factors
Typical growth
A Visual Representation of Value Added
Spring 5th Grade Test
Student ASpring Score 209
Score 207(Average Spring Score for Similar
Students)
Value Added(+2 Score)
Student AFall Score 200
Fall 5th Grade Test
• What if I skip this step?– Comparison is likely against normative data
so the comparison is to “typical kids in typical settings”
• How fair is it to disregard context?– Good teacher – bad school– Good teacher – challenging kids
Consider . . .
• Value added models can control for a variety of classroom, school level, and other conditions– Proven statistical methods– All attempt to minimize error– Variables outside controls are assumed as random
Value-added is science
• Control for measurement error– All models attempt to address
this issue• Population size• Multiple data points
– Error is compounded with combining two test events
– Many teachers’ value-added scores will fall within the range of statistical error
A variety of errors means more stability only at the extremes
-12.00-11.00-10.00
-9.00-8.00-7.00-6.00-5.00-4.00-3.00-2.00-1.000.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.00
Mathematics Growth Index Distribution by Teacher - Validity Filtered
Aver
age
Grow
th In
dex
Scor
e an
d Ra
nge
Q5
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Each line in this display represents a single teacher. The graphic shows the average growth index score for each teacher (green line), plus or minus the standard error of the growth index estimate (blue line). We removed stu-dents who had tests of questionable validity and teachers with fewer than 20 students.
Range of teacher value-added estimates
With one teacher, error means a lot
• Value-added models assume that variation is caused by randomness if not controlled for explicitly– Young teachers are assigned disproportionate
numbers of students with poor discipline records– Parent requests for the “best” teachers are
honored• Sound educational reasons for placement are
likely to be defensible
Assumption of randomness can have risk implications
“The findings indicate that these modeling choices can significantly influence outcomes for individual teachers, particularly those in the tails of the performance distribution who are most likely to be targeted by high-stakes policies.”
Ballou, D., Mokher, C. and Cavalluzzo, L. (2012) Using Value-Added Assessment for Personnel Decisions: How Omitted Variables and Model Specification Influence Teachers’ Outcomes.
Instability at the tails of the distribution
LA Times Teacher #1LA Times Teacher #2
How tests are used to evaluate teachers
The Test
The Growth Metric
The Evaluation
The Rating
• How would you translate a rank order to a rating?• Data can be provided
• Value judgment ultimately the basis for setting cut scores for points or rating
Translation into ratings can be difficult to inform with data
• What is far below a district’s expectation is subjective
• What about• Obligation to help
teachers improve?• Quality of replacement
teachers?
Decisions are value based, not empirical
• System for combining elements and producing a rating is also a value based decision– Multiple measures and principal judgment
must be included– Evaluate the extremes to make sure it
makes sense
Even multiple measures need to be used well
Leadership Courage Is A Key
Teacher 1 Teacher 2 Teacher 30
1
2
3
4
5
Ratings can be driven by the assessment
Observation Assessment
Real or Noise?
If evaluators do not differentiate their ratings,
then all differentiation comes from the test
Big Message
• What were some things you learned?• What practices do you want to reinforce?• What do you need to do differently?
• Think – Pair – Share– 2 min to make some notes– 3 min to share with a neighbor– 2 min for two report outs on anything so far
Lessons?
Improving yourassessment program
• Read the sheet and highlight anything interesting to you
Let’s DefineTypes of Assessments
The pursuit of compliance is exhausting because it is always a
moving target. Governors move on, the party in power gets replaced, a
new president is elected, and all want to put their own stamp on
education.
It is saner and less exhausting to define your own course and align compliance requirements to that.
Seven standards that define the purpose driven assessment system
The purposes of all assessments are defined and the assessments are valid and useful for their purposes1
Teachers are educated in the proper administration and application of the assessments used in their classrooms2
Redundant, mis-aligned, or unused assessments are eliminated3
Assessment results are aligned to the needs of their audiences4
Assessment results are delivered in a timely and useful manner5
The metrics and incentives used encourage a focus on all learners6
The assessment program contributes to a climate of transparency and objectivity with a long-term focus7
1. Typical assessment purposes
• Identify student learning needs• Identify groupings of students for instruction• Guide instruction• Course placement• Determine eligibility for programs• Award credits and/or assign grades• Evaluate proficiency• Monitor student progress• Predict proficiency• Project achievement of a goal• Formative and summative evaluation of programs• Formative evaluation to support school and teacher improvement• Report student achievement, growth, and progress to the
community and stakeholders• Summative evaluation of schools and teachers
To increase value…Identify gaps between:1. How critical is this data
to your work?2. How do you actually
use this data?
Take 10 min to fill this out and 5 min to pair and discuss areas of biggest gap
1. Assessment Purpose Survey
Compare assessments and their purposes to find unnecessary overlaps
Take 10 min to fill this out and 5 min to pair and discuss areas of redundancy
3. Eliminate waste
• What were some things you learned?• What practices do you want to reinforce?• What do you need to do differently?
• Think – Pair – Share– 2 min to make some notes– 3 min to share with a neighbor– 2 min for two report outs on this section
Lessons?
Data Culture
Education Organizations Mature
Barber, M., Chijioke, C., & Mourshed, M. (2011). How the world’s most improved school systems keep getting better. McKinsey & Company.
Poor to Fair
Fair to Good
Good to Great
Great to Excellent
Achieving the basics of literacy
and numeracy
Getting the foundations
in place
Shaping the professional
Improving through
peers and innovation
Data use does too
Data Use Continuum
Poor to Fair
Fair to Good
Good to Great
Great to Excellent
One on One Within Teams
Within the Walls
Across the Walls
Requires a shift in the culture
What would you do with this?
• Where are your pockets of most maturity?• Least maturity?• What is causing the differences?
Think - 2 min
Reflection Time
• Education problems are “Wicked”– Problem boundaries are ill-defined– No definitive solutions– Highly resistant to change– Problem and solutions depend on
perspective– Changes are consequential
Data can only take you so far
Research on data use in school improvement
• Use data as a platform for deeper conversations
• Define your problem well– Problem title and description– Magnitude– Location– Duration
Research on data use in school improvement
• Part of a continuous improvement process–Data conversations
• Collaborative• Embedded in culture• Structured process
Research on data use in school improvement
• Love, Nancy – Using data to improve learning for all• Lipton & Wellman – Got data? Now what?• NWEA Data Coaching
Final Question
• Think – 2 min• Pair – 3 min• Share – 2 min - Two people
What are your biggest take-aways?
• Materials in your Conference App
Presentation available on Slideshare.net
Last thing