nypta fall 2010
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State Transportation Infrastructure Finance Context & IssuesUncertain Fiscal Future
New York Public Transit AssociationFall Conference and Trade Show
November 19, 2010
“New York State currently lacks the revenue necessary to maintain its transportation system in a state-of-good-repair, and the State has no credible strategy for meeting future needs.”
Lieutenant Governor Ravitch
November 17, 2010
Session Discussion Topics
New York and the nation are at a crossroads in transportation
The current climate– Federal\State budgets are driving force in future investment decisions– Congress is stalled and is not moving forward– The financial backbone of the surface transportation programs is all but broken– Administration is focused on climate change, livability and performance based
planning
What is the Federal government’s role going to be in the future?
How will the State/nation best generate the required revenue for investment?
NYSDOT Capital Program Commitments/Funding Shares
The Current Climate
The Current Climate
The bad news
The Administration and the Congress have not put a high priority on reauthorization
The Highway Trust Fund (and Stated Dedicated Fund) has all but gone broke
– There is no support for increasing user fees– There are many competing goals at the national level
Difficult to develop multi-year plan at State level
Administration’s Direction
The long-term proposals postponed/Up front Investment of $50 billion
Some key features will likely include:
– Livable communities– Major emphasis on transit– Congestion reduction– Passenger rail revitalization– Climate change– Performance based programming/planning (Discretionary?)– No user fee increases in the immediate future
The Congress
Facing difficult choices
– The House of Representatives -Transportation and Infrastructure Committee - has developed a bill
– The Senate counterpart (EPW, Banking, ET AL) has not taken action but started work
– The Congress passed and extension through December 31st.– Funding is in critical condition
The road ahead is bumpy/no clear path forward
Mid-term Election Impacts
Results may have a significant and lasting impact on future surface transportation legislation/New York
New Congress will be more conservative/less likely to consider increase taxes and/or expenditures
Future of Oberstar’s proposed $500 billion program
House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee
Committee that will write next transportation bill in House
State may lose up to 4 of 5 seats on T&I (Bishop?)
Nadler Remaining member
Five (possibly six) new members of Congress. Encourage them to seek a seat on T&I
Congressman Mica (R-FL) expected to become next Chair– “…do more with less”
Senate Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW)
Writes highway title of the bill
Senate Democrat margin reduced
May result in reduced democratic committee slots
Senator Gillibrand - junior committee member – could lose EPW seat
Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs
Writes transit title of the bill
Senator Dodd (D-CT) retired
Leadership will likely pass to Senator Johnson (D-SD) and Senator Shelby (R-AL) as ranking member
Shift to rural states may have further adverse implications for transit intensive states
Senator Schumer, however, remains second most senior Democrat
Declining Federal Share…
Steady Growth for New York
Total $B $11.77 $13.79 $16.55ISTEA TEA-21 SAFETEA-LU
$6.20
$5.57
$10.07
$6.48
$8.49
$5.30
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$ b
illio
ns
Transit
Highways
NY’s Share Eroding
Highways Transit
ISTEA92-97
5.63% 21.2%
TEA-21 98-20
5.16% 19.7%
SAFETEA-LU04-09
4.63% 17.6%
“Equity” BonusRate of Return
ISTEA 90.0
TEA-21 90.5
SAFETEA-LU– 2005 90.5– 2006 90.5– 2007 91.5– 2008 92.0– 2009 92.0
CT: $1.28
DE: $1.64NJ:$0.92
RI: $2.18MA: $0.92
CA$0.92
VT: $2.06NH: $1.00
WA$0.92
OR$1.02 ID
$1.44
NV$0.94
AZ$0.92
UT$0.94
NM$1.14
TX$0.92
MT$2.27
ND$2.07
SD$1.98 WY
$1.52
MN$0.92
OK$0.92
CO$0.92
NE$0.99
KS$0.96
IA$0.92
MO$0.98
AR$1.05
LA$0.95
WI$1.03 MI
$0.92
IL$0.92
IN$0.92
OH$0.92
AK$5.27 FL
$0.92
GA$0.92
SC$0.92
ME$0.96
NC$0.92
AL$1.07
MS$0.95
TN$0.92
KY$0.96
WV$1.69
NY$1.10
PA$1.13
VA$0.92
MD$0.92DC$4.25
Donor/Donee
Legend
Donee
DonorHI $1.75
Prospects of New York getting a larger share of federal funding…
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
NYS Apportionments/Allocations NYS Percent Share/National TotalYear
$ in
mill
ions
Message to Congressional Delegation
Transportation matters!
Need a “clean” long-term extension
– Allows states to plan for larger projects– With new Congress – struggle to get better deal than
current law
The Financial Backbone
is All But Broken…
-$10.3
$41.9
$31.6
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
($ b
illio
ns
)Federal Highway Account of the Highway Trust
Fund: Receipts and Outlay Discrepancy
Negative Annual Cash Flow Highway Account Outlays Highway Account Receipts
*Excludes $8.017 billion transfer from General Fund to Highway Account of HTF in September 2008.**Excludes $7 billion transfer from General Fund to Highway Account of HTF in July 2009.
Actual Estimated
Decline in Purchasing Power of Motor Fuel Taxes(Based on Inflation since 1993)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Year
Per
cen
tag
e
NYS General Fund Transfers into the DHBTF
07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$ in
mill
ions
“Debt service for MTA and DOT by 2014 will be over $3.6 billion annually.”
Mary Ann Crotty
November 16, 2010
NYS Business Council
State Revenues Available for Infrastructure Investment
07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
Debt Service/DHBTF Revenue
Debt Service Revenue Available for Investment
$ in
mill
ions
“Thus, State is, in effect, spending more than ever before on its transportation program but getting less.”
Lieutenant Governor Ravitch
November 17, 2010
Trust Fund Spending
07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
Debt Service Revenue Available for Investment General Fund Transfers
$ in
mill
ions
“New York’s recurring revenues to support its transportation related debt are not increasing at anywhere near the rate at which debt itself is increasing. As a result, the state confronts a crippling debt service crisis.”
Lieutenant Governor Ravitch
November 17, 2010
Low Hanging Fruit…
Revenue
The current federal/State system relies on fuel taxes
We have seen a marked decline in revenues
Two National Transportation Commissions/one Debt Commission have called for an increase in gas tax (short-term)
In the mid- to long-term, study the feasibility of alternatives, such as Vehicle Miles Traveled Fee
Deficit Reduction Commission
Report Released November 10 Recommended increasing gas tax by 15 cents/gallon Gradual increase beginning in 2013 Revenue exclusive for transportation/not deficit reduction Recommends change in budgetary treatment/mandatory
spending Relieve general fund transfers Enough to support a six-year $450 billion bill
In The Interim…
Without longer-term action/infusion of funding
– Short-term extensions limit opportunity to plan/make longer-term investment decisions
– Uncertainty is increasing the costs for transportation-related projects
– Jobs in the transportation sector will be lost without an infusion of funds and longer-term predictability
QUESTIONS ?
Ron EpsteinChief Financial Officer
New York State Department of Transportation50 Wolf Road
Albany, New York 12232(518) 457-8362