NYC Emergency Responders: An Analysis on FDNY Response Times

By: LT Jason McKeown& LT Annette Feliciano-Ramos

Agenda

• Background Story/Problem Statement• Network Model• Method• Formulation• Results• Analysis• Conclusions

World Trade Center Attacks

• FDNY Response– 200+ Units

• Combined companies

– First 3 Hours• 121 Engines (61%)• 62 Ladders (43%)• 27 Chiefs (47%)• Lead to management

difficulties

– City Wide Coverage Maintained• Avg Response time: 5.5min

• FDNY Losses– 343 Fire Fighters– 98 Vehicles

Problem Statement

Evaluate fire department city wide response for a catastrophic high rise fire with the presence of degraded infrastructure.

Why?• Construction is currently

underway to build the new “One World Trade Center” building.

• Creates a target for future, possibly more sophisticated, terrorist attacks.

• Attacking infrastructure to impede emergency response is a possibility.

FDNY Structure• New York City

– Consists of 5 Boroughs• Manhattan• The Bronx• Brooklyn• Queens• Staten Island

– Connected by bridge and tunnel network.• Brooklyn Bridge• JFK Bridge• Etc.

– Emergency Response Strength• 15,870 Responders• 52 Battalions• 251 Stations• 198 Engines• 143 Ladders

• FDNY Structure• Fire Commissioner (Civilian)

• Overall authority in NYC• Chief of Department

• Highest ranking fire fighter• Chief of Fire Operations

• Responsible for fire fighting efforts throughout the city

• Borough Chiefs• Responsible for fire fighting

efforts in their respective Boroughs

• Division Chief• Battalion Chief• Captain (Fire Station Commander)

Network Model• Nodes (254)– Start Node– Fire Houses– Bridges– WTC (destination)

• Edges (1289)– Start to Fire Houses– Fire House to Bridge Arcs– Bridge to Bridge Arcs

• Data– Avg Response Times– Fire House Locations– Fire House Capacities

– http://nycopendata.socrata.com/

Assumptions

• Borough response times are homogenized.• FDNY response is contained within NYC

boarders.• All non-attacked bridges are currently

available for transit.• Responding Fire Houses utilize all resources

available.• Response is instantaneous (no response lag).

Staten Island

Brooklyn

Manhattan

Queens

Bronx

New York City

Manhattan

Bronx

Brooklyn

Staten Island

Queens

Staten Island

Staten Island

Staten Island

Brooklyn

Brooklyn Bridge

Manhattan Bridge

Williamsburg Bridge

Brooklyn

Brooklyn

Queens

Throgs Neck Bridge

Bronx Whitestone Bridge

Queens

Throgs Neck Bridge

Bronx Whitestone Bridge

QueensboroughBridge

Bronx Whitestone Bridge

Queens

Bronx

Throgs Neck Bridge

Bronx Whitestone Bridge

Bronx

Throgs Neck Bridge

Bronx Whitestone Bridge

Bronx

Manhattan

WTC

Manhattan

WTC

Manhattan

New York City

New York CityBridges to WTC

• Purpose: Minimize the average response times of emergency responders given a prerequisite number of units. (ex: 50 Fire Stations Responding).– Attacks on the network are aimed at vital nodes that

provide connections to other boroughs

Min Cost Flow

Manhattan Isolation(# attacks > # bridges)

0 10 20 30 40 50 600.1

1

10

100

1000

Manhattan Isolation

Avg Time

Req'd Responders

Avg

Tim

e (m

in)

Manhattan contains 48 Fire Stations. Thus for a situation where 49 responders are required, FDNY Manhattan would be overwhelmed if they were to receive no outside assistance.

Attacking the Network (49-198 Req’d)

15-16: Isolation of Manhattan6-7: Isolation of Manhattan & The Bronx4-5: Isolation of Manhattan, The Bronx, and Queens3-4: Isolation of Manhattan, The Bronx, Queens, and Brooklyn. This also removes the need for Staten Island.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201

10

100

1000

10000Operator Resilience Curve

49 Req'd

83 Req'd

148 Req'd

153 Req'd

198 Req'd

# of Attacks

Avg

Tim

e (m

in)

Conclusions

• To Overwhelm the FDNY– Requires another 9/11 type attack.• Massive response requires manpower and

resources

– Requires isolation of the borough• Level of sophistication would be very high• Would not go unnoticed• Extensive bridge network needs to be defeated.

Future Research• Determine Fire House

dispatch procedures to determine individual node capacities.

• Obtain actual list of dispatched Fire Houses and those that self-dispatched.

Image credit: Joe Woolhead Courtesy of: Silverstein Properties Taken: September 08, 2011

Questions