nupc 1998 six future challenges: 50 years after the celebration of the birth of the modern computer...
TRANSCRIPT
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Six Future Challenges:50 years after
The Celebration of the Birth of the Modern Computer at
University of Manchester
New Paradigms for Using Computers
New Personal Computer UsesJuly 16, 1998
Gordon Bell
Microsoft Corporation
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
From Questionable...Great Research & Book Reports to Poor...Profitable Product:“and then a miracle happens”
For New Uses of PCs Conference…also New Paradigms for Using
Computers
July 1998
Gordon Bell
Microsoft Corp.
Bay Area Research Center
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Research to Product Models The Classical, Feed-Forward Process Gov’t Model I. Fund product development & then buy the products Gov’t Model II. Issue challenge. Buy product. “We invented it, now productize it, stupid” PARC I “We invented something, let’s at least try to get our money back.”
PARC II Fund a company for research & development Research as a recruiting tool Hire good people, encourage interaction Hire good people, large projects, do startups Do it in/with product development Fund university research and pray…
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Heuristics for Government Funding
Fund University Research Issue “buy” challenges to foster
competition
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
The two great inventions The computer (1946… realised in 1948).
Computers supplement and substitute for all other info processors, including humans– Memories come in a hierarchy of sizes, speeds, and prices…
the challenge is to exploit them– Computers are built from other computers in a iterative,
layered, and recursive fashion
The Transistor (1946) and subsequent Integrated Circuit (1957).– Processors, memories, switching, and transduction are the
primitives in well-defined hardware-software levels– A little help from magnetic, photonic, and other transducer
technologies
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Transistor density doubles every 18 months 60% increase per year– Chip density – Microprocessor speed
Exponential growth:– The past does not matter– 10x here, 10x there … means REAL change
PC costs decline faster than any other platform– Volume and learning curves– PCs are the building bricks of all future
systems
Moore’s First Law
128KB128KB
128MB128MB
200020008KB8KB
1MB1MB
8MB8MB
1GB1GB
19701970 19801980 19901990
1M1M 16M16Mbits: 1Kbits: 1K 4K4K 16K16K 64K64K 256K256K 4M4M 64M64M 256M256M
1 chip memory size1 chip memory size ( 2 MB to 32 MB)( 2 MB to 32 MB)
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Platform evolution: How do they all connect?
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Tera
Giga
Mega
Kilo
11947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007
Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per year
StorageStorageBackboneBackbone
MemoryMemoryProcessingProcessing
Telephone ServiceTelephone Service17% / year17% / year
????
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year
1.E+21
1.E+18
1.E+15
1.E+12
1.E +9
1.E+61995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
20%= 20%= TeraopsTeraops
40%= 40%= PetaopsPetaops
60%= 60%= ExaopsExaops
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Alternative Computing Futures
Photos courtesy of Microsoft Cinemania
• Forbidden Planet (1956)
• Metropolis (1926)
• 2001 (1968)
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Going forward… SIX challenges
Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation
Everything will be in Cyberspace
Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”
Telepresence
The Guardian Angel for health
The Cyber Admin for personal use
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Turing test: you can’t tell who’s on the other end when communicating with a machine using
Text Voice Visual image and voice
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Going forward… challenges
Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation
Everything will be in Cyberspace
Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”
Telepresence
The Guardian Angel for health
The Cyber Admin for personal use
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Region/Region/IntranetIntranet
Campus,Campus,including SANsincluding SANs
HomeHome
BodyBody
WorldWorld
ContinentContinent
Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace!
Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms
CarCar
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
“Everything will be in Cyberspace” Is this a challenge? goal?
quest? fate?… or Cyberization enables
new computing platforms thatrequire new networks to connect them – Infrastructure supports the content– Three evolutionary dimensions
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information
Coupling to all information and information processors
Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video Bit tokens e.g. money, stock State of: places, things, and people State of: physical networks
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Atoms vs Electrons for bitsAtoms (mass) Electrons, etc. (massless)people know computers knowbricks & mortar anywhere
(personnel/clients)office hours anytimedatabase & reports web access for review
and transactionsletter & fax email & web accessphone email, voice & video mailpersonal visits videophone / videomailsignature authenticated imagesenvelopes digital envelopes / store
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
By January 2001 there will NOT be 1 billion people on the “net”.
Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K
Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K:$5K… it happens by 2002.
Also $1 T of commerce by 2001.
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Why this is the keystone bet! It determines the market
– for networks– for access devices… especially PCs
It says something about the utility– commerce – communication– entertainment
Increased network capacity & ubiquity enables– phones– videophones– television– serendipity
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Internetters growth
‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04
Internet GrowthInternet Growthextrapolated at 98% per yearextrapolated at 98% per year
World PopulationWorld Populationextrapolated at 1.6% per yearextrapolated at 1.6% per year
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Internetters growth
InternettersInternetters
PCsPCs
TVs & PhonesTVs & Phones
World PopulationWorld Population10000
1000
100
10‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04
““1 Gp by 20001 Gp by 2000””NegroponteNegroponte
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Growth in hypeWWW
Infoway addiction
Infoway regulation
lawsuits
Data from Gordon’s WAG
conferences
books,newspapers
Infoway promise:“how great it’ll be” (politicians, academics, etc.)
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space
ComputationComputation
CommunicationCommunication CyberizationCyberizationPrograms, Content & messages
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
DataData
Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020
TelephonyTelephony
TelevisionTelevision
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Going forward… challenges
Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation
Everything will be in Cyberspace
Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”
Telepresence
The Guardian Angel for health
The Cyber Admin for personal use
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Atoms that represent money, ownership, … risk
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
New or old money… it’s just bits
Prepaid
Credit
Cash
Check
ATM /
Prepaid
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Put those checks & statements in Cyberspace or eliminate them!
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Buying & selling stock: what a pain!Faxes? Electronic signatures are legal in Georgia.
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Paperless transactions: put them all in Cyberspace
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Atoms vs Electrons for financial bits
Atoms (mass) Electrons, etc. (massless)money database, smart card,
credit card, debit cardstatements web accessbills / checks bill present. / check freecoupons cyber-coupons
stock database, webstatements, reports web access, email +company infor, analyst reports, etc.private placements web access, emailtrade confirmation direct tradesmail voting on line voting
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Going forward… challenges
Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation
Everything will be in Cyberspace
Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”
Telepresence
The Guardian Angel for health
The Cyber Admin for personal use
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Telepresence… being there while being here, at another time, and with time scaling
Telepresentations Telemeetings The “work”
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Motivation:Telepresentations• Presenter and/or
audience telepresent
NOT: meeting or collaboration settings
Forget the nasty social issues!
Mostly one-way
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
TelepresentationElements
Slides Audio Video Script,
text comments, hyperlinks,etc.
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Telepresentations:The Essentials
Slide and audio a must Add some video
(low quality) to make us feel good
Storage and transmission costs low
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Telepresentations:The Killer App
Increased attendance & lower travel costs
Practical and low-cost NOW e.g. ACM97 - 2,000 visitors in real
space, 20,000 visitors on Internethttp://research.microsoft.com/acm97
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Today’sExperiment
Would you like to pause, rewind, browse? Do you wish you could have seen this
– At home?– At another time?
How much does a present speaker add? How much would you pay for real presence?
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Telework: It takes screens, sound, and bandwidth, stupid
http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Telepresencehold a meeting of type, m
university or technical course
interview, staff meeting, co-ordination, board meeting, annual meeting, “town hall”,
with p, distributed persons
with as much interactivity and feeling
such that people prefer being telepresent
meetings are provably more productive
meetings will evolve to be asynchronous versus traditional synchronous
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Conference Rooms with Teleconferencing
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Mobile videophone
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Honda Robot
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
People surrogates
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Telework: It takes screens, sound, and bandwidth, stupid
http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
““
””
By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in use.
Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray1996 (one paper,
loser gets fed)
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Living in Cyberspace
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Intrastructure
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
SOHO (small office, home office)network computing environment
NT Server for: comm/network, POTS/IP
gateway, file, print, compute
IP Dial tone (Internet, phone, videophone) >1.5 Mbps
Phone
POTS (legacy services)
*NC, NetPC, Xterm, etc.
...
LAN
PC NC*PC...
PhonePhone
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Libretto, .5mm pencil
PCS; Pilot
Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife
Compass; altimeter
Not shown: ECG; GPS;
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Problems of living & working in Cyberspace: socio vs technical Isolation & loneliness
– need for communication/stimulation– chance meetings -- serendipity of ideas– loss of group/teamwork skills– danger of becoming “terminal”
interruptions & focus lack of support staff to help, answer ?s supervision and ability to have 1:1 unclear that many people want it…
they simply need the contact with people
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
A People Model: Who wants to be in Cyberspace?
Spock
formal(in writing)
Self-control
informal(verbal)
Sally Field
Souter Evangelism Swaggert
Analyticals.. being right, detailed
analretentives
Drivers…results orient.
megalo-maniacs
Amiables…consensusbuilders
spinelesswimps
Expressives...want recognition, need contact
psychotics
Managing Interpersonal Relationships(MIR)
2D Model
--------------chat----------------
emailbroadcast- push
Intensity
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Going forward… challenges
Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation
Everything will be in Cyberspace
Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”
Telepresence
The Guardian Angel for health
The Cyber Admin for personal use
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
The Guardian Angel
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Steve ManninCyberspace
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
MedtronicsImplanted
Cardioplastic
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Audio, pix, T, P, ECG, location, physiological parameters…1 GB
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Going forward… challenges
Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation
Everything will be in Cyberspace
Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”
Telepresence
The Guardian Angel for health
The Cyber Admin for personal use
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
The Cyber Admin or the prosthetic memory…
When we can store everything we’ve: read/written, heard/said, seen/acted, plusphysical parameters.
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
What does Cyber Admin do? Captures the creation of all
personal/professional information Stores and organizes Retrieval is the challenge
– recalling readings, conversations, presentations, images
– help in being the “guardian angel” What are the apps when we can do this?
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Vannevar Bush c1945
There will always be plenty of things to compute ... There will always be plenty of things to compute ... With millions of people doing complicated thingsWith millions of people doing complicated things..
memex … stores all one’s books, records, and memex … stores all one’s books, records, and communications, and ... can be consulted with communications, and ... can be consulted with speed and flexibilityspeed and flexibility
Matchbook sized, $.05 encyclopediaMatchbook sized, $.05 encyclopedia
Speech to textSpeech to text
Head mounted camera, dry photographyHead mounted camera, dry photography
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Storing all we’ve read, heard, & seen
Human data-types /hr /day (/4yr) /lifetimeread text, few pictures 200 K 2 -10 M/G 60-300 G
speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 Gspeech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G 1.2 T
video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M .25 G/T 25 Tvideo 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M 1 G/T 100 T
video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1 P
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Sizes of various information stores that an individual might need
Gigabyte 1,000,000,000 100-3,000 books
10,000,000,000 disk, 4 years of read text
300,000,000,000 lifetime of read text
Terabyte 1,000,000,000,000 lifetime of coded speech
25,000,000,000,000 lifetime of video, low Q
100,000,000,000,000 lifetime of video @.1Mbps
Petabyte 1,000,000,000,000,000 lifetime of hi-Q video
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
10X in 40 years(6% per year)
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Library Volume Growth10X in 150 years
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Now how do you find or use the rich information
Need the system to: locate, retrieve, visualize, order, up load the corporation’s IP assets (text, proposals, images, videos, presentations, etc.) … with appropriate controls.
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
ColorB&W
BrightnessContrast
Volume
Speech-Music
Meta Information
Image Recognition for ObjectsSpeech RecognitionImage Recognition, Lexical CuesTranscriptsClose CaptionLexical Analysis
Context Relevance
ViewingPreviews - Power Point, PDF, Video, Sound, Artwork
SmartMedia Technologies
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Virage Video Cataloger
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Sizes of various information stores
Gigabyte 1,000,000,000 shelf of scanned paper,
large book stack
10,000,000,000 movie, large disk
200,000,000,000 2 floor library, videotape
Terabyte 1,000,000,000,000 million volume library
20,000,000,000,000 Lib of Congress, disk array
Petabyte 1,000,000,000,000,000 a national library
15,000,000,000,000,00 disk production 1995
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Library of Congress bits...
Scanned LC 1PBassumes 6B pages
13M photos 13TB
4M maps 200TB
500K movies 500TB
3.5M recordings 2,000TB 5 Bpeople or 2 GB per person
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
Publicly generated bits per year
Cinema 5K 200 TB
Images (all) 52G 520 PB
Broadcast (station)1500 200/10 PB
Recordings 100K 60 TB
Telephone (min.) 500G 400 PB
Videotapes
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NUPC ‘1998NUPC ‘1998
The end